Who Would You Start on Opening Day?
- Thread starter twslam07
- Start date
How do you figure? After Ellis joined the starting lineup in March & April the Kings defensive rating went from 118 to 108 and their net rating went from 5.2 to 6.6. Other than Huerter getting injured, that was the only lineup change. His man and team defense was incredibly impactful and he shot a great percentage from three.
I really can't think of a better scenario for Ellis than having him start with Fox, DDR, Murray and Sabonis. When I see those 4 guys, the last thing I think is we need another scorer on the court. I'd rather have Huerter and Monk get higher usage and more opportunities off the bench than having them play 4th or 5th fiddle in the starting lineup.
Other than the fact that we were an elite defensive team basically the second that Keon entered the starting lineup, with no other changes (outside of Davion being in a more consistent role), how do you figure he's not a starting caliber player?
-3rd in DEF Rtg from March 8th to the end of the season
-Jumped from 21st overall to 14th in DEF Rtg by the end of the year.
-Kings were +4.4 defensively with Keon on the floor (978 minutes) with a 112.6 DEF Rtg. 117 with him off.
-Kings were +1.1 offensively with Keon on the floor. 118.1 ORtg. 117 with him off
-Shot 40.4% from 3 as a starter in 21 games. 4.4 3PA/game
-63.1% TS as a starter
-3rd in DEF Rtg from March 8th to the end of the season
-Jumped from 21st overall to 14th in DEF Rtg by the end of the year.
-Kings were +4.4 defensively with Keon on the floor (978 minutes) with a 112.6 DEF Rtg. 117 with him off.
-Kings were +1.1 offensively with Keon on the floor. 118.1 ORtg. 117 with him off
-Shot 40.4% from 3 as a starter in 21 games. 4.4 3PA/game
-63.1% TS as a starter
I just don't see any possible reason for Huerter to start over Keon, after what we saw last season. Huerter struggled to adjust to being a 4th/5th option and now you're adding a DDR-level USG player and year 3 Keegan, who probably continues to take a leap with his offensive game. Bringing him and Monk off the bench as the 6th/7th man duo lets them lead the 2nd unit in USG and get the shot attempts they need. Wouldn't surprise me to see Huerter with a huge USG bump off the bench, even if he's down to like a 20ish MPG role.
Keon is just literally perfect to slot in with the other 4. Guy who knows his role as a defensive menace, excels in it and hits open 3's at a very high clip. Love some of the skills he showed in SL too, because that'll force defenses to stay up on him and not just "leave him open". 5 offensive threats better than 4.
I don't think Keon's shooting is a fluke. Maybe he's not 42%, but in 22-23, he was 44% on 4.3 3PA/game in the G-League. Last year, he was 41.7% on 2.9 3PA/game. And I already showed his starter splits where he was able to maintain that shooting on bigger volume. So i think it's pretty fair to expect 36-38% from him going forward, which is all you need with how good he is defensively.
Keon is just literally perfect to slot in with the other 4. Guy who knows his role as a defensive menace, excels in it and hits open 3's at a very high clip. Love some of the skills he showed in SL too, because that'll force defenses to stay up on him and not just "leave him open". 5 offensive threats better than 4.
I don't think Keon's shooting is a fluke. Maybe he's not 42%, but in 22-23, he was 44% on 4.3 3PA/game in the G-League. Last year, he was 41.7% on 2.9 3PA/game. And I already showed his starter splits where he was able to maintain that shooting on bigger volume. So i think it's pretty fair to expect 36-38% from him going forward, which is all you need with how good he is defensively.
I agree with all this - and don’t understand why some people doubt the shooting. From a draft profile:
Ellis wasn’t the most efficient three-point shooter ever (37.1% for his college career) but he did shoot 88.1% from the free throw line this last year. He has all of the indicators of being a good to great catch-and-shoot guy at the next level. https://www.denverstiffs.com/2022-nba-draft-profile-keon-ellis/
Also - I couldn’t find a link, but I think I remember Fox talking about Keon regularly lighting up shooting drills in practice. So I think there is an organizational belief in his shot.
Ellis wasn’t the most efficient three-point shooter ever (37.1% for his college career) but he did shoot 88.1% from the free throw line this last year. He has all of the indicators of being a good to great catch-and-shoot guy at the next level. https://www.denverstiffs.com/2022-nba-draft-profile-keon-ellis/
Also - I couldn’t find a link, but I think I remember Fox talking about Keon regularly lighting up shooting drills in practice. So I think there is an organizational belief in his shot.
I was skeptical of Keon's shot too. His mechanics are a bit awkward. He brings his knees together and the ball comes up from the left side of his body instead of his right. But he's very consistent with it and his release and follow through are pretty close to textbook. To me it means he'll be very limited as a movement shooter and have to really get his looks on catch and shoots, but he was excellent working out of DHOs last season (something like 95th percentile IIRC) and he does just enough to space the floor. Which is all you need from a defensive specialist.
You have 3 high usage players in the starting lineup with Fox, DeRozan, and Sabonis. And ideally you want Murray to get plenty of touches too. So if your fifth starter is essentially an elite 3&D guard who doesn't need the ball in his hands, that seems perfect.
You have 3 high usage players in the starting lineup with Fox, DeRozan, and Sabonis. And ideally you want Murray to get plenty of touches too. So if your fifth starter is essentially an elite 3&D guard who doesn't need the ball in his hands, that seems perfect.
For sure.
I'm very high on Keon as a future starter and elite defensive player. But he's given us a 21 game starter sample and roughly 1000 minutes last year. He wasn't on teams radar last year; now teams likely will be planning for him as a key rotation player and starter for us coming into this season. Got to see how he responds to that.
I'm very high on Keon as a future starter and elite defensive player. But he's given us a 21 game starter sample and roughly 1000 minutes last year. He wasn't on teams radar last year; now teams likely will be planning for him as a key rotation player and starter for us coming into this season. Got to see how he responds to that.
This as much of a consensus as I've seen around here in a long time. 81 out of 81 voters have the same 4 starters with the only toss-up being Ellis, Monk, or Huerter as the starting SG. I can see an argument for any of them. I do think Ellis gives us the highest ceiling in the starting lineup if he continues to shoot the ball well -- it's exciting to think about a full season of Fox and Ellis absolutely hounding opposing ballhandlers.
That's the lineup I expect to see next season but we don't have a huge sample of Keon shooting the ball yet. Adding DeMar in the lineup is going to put even more emphasis on shooting consistency from that SG position. If Keon struggles shooting the ball in October/November, I wouldn't be surprised if Mike Brown inserts Huerter or Monk in that spot instead.
That's the lineup I expect to see next season but we don't have a huge sample of Keon shooting the ball yet. Adding DeMar in the lineup is going to put even more emphasis on shooting consistency from that SG position. If Keon struggles shooting the ball in October/November, I wouldn't be surprised if Mike Brown inserts Huerter or Monk in that spot instead.
Ellis should start purely for lineup combination purposes in my opinion … if Ellis is off bench he’ll essentially play with Lyles & Len, that’s too much defense and not enough shot creation.
Len/Lyles are the defense, toughness guys. I love putting Monk & Huerter out there with them and then 1 of Derozan/Murray/Fox (staggering minutes)
Let Ellis be matched up with other teams too guard, and let Monk/Huerter be bench leaders. Unless Ellis comes to camp hurt, no good reason to not start him
Len/Lyles are the defense, toughness guys. I love putting Monk & Huerter out there with them and then 1 of Derozan/Murray/Fox (staggering minutes)
Let Ellis be matched up with other teams too guard, and let Monk/Huerter be bench leaders. Unless Ellis comes to camp hurt, no good reason to not start him
I hope Monk stays as the 6th man. I consider the sixth man as important as any of the starters in terms of how the team benefits. That position is a rarity. Very few teams have guys like Monk that can step in and bring instant energy. He’s the guy that can light a fire under the rest of the team when it’s needed and bring us back from a lackluster start. I don’t see Huerter or Ellis with that ability. Plus, Monk is the guy I want playing at the end of the game. It’s not as important who starts, but who finishes.
Now I know that Monk has said that he wants to start. I get it. Perhaps he’ll be given the opportunity to show us what he can do at the starting two guard. Who knows, maybe he’ll turn into a superstar. I trust Mike Brown to make the right decision with his players.
Now I know that Monk has said that he wants to start. I get it. Perhaps he’ll be given the opportunity to show us what he can do at the starting two guard. Who knows, maybe he’ll turn into a superstar. I trust Mike Brown to make the right decision with his players.
When he does start on opening day/night, we will be having a little talk...
It's not impossible that he could be ready to start a week later when the regular season kicks off, but I think the odds are against him.
I was wondering why he'd still be out and then remembered he did dislocate it when it got injured which makes the potential recovery trickier. I checked the article put out after surgery and Kevin said he's had shoulder issues since coming into the league but just played through it prior to this but since it was tear and dislocation you probably need to get that fixed otherwise it could slip out at any time.