This is a great question.
I think there are a few teams that, on paper, should be on top if they figure things out and stay healthy:
Denver- losing Brown hurts, but still just really good
Phoenix- So much talent, and did a great job building depth. If they gel, look out
LAC- same story as always. If Kawhi and George play they are a contender. If one plays they are mid-tier (4-6seed). If neither plays they are a scrappy play-in team.
LAL- got better, but need Lebron and AD. If those two stay healthy they will contend. Without both they will be good and deeper, but not great.
Potential risers
Dallas- still not sold on Kyrie/Luka. They were awful last year. But so much of that was the wing play after losing DFS. Grant Williams might shore things up for them. I still don’t think this works out for them with Kyrie, but the talent is undeniable if they can play together and stiffen up the wing D.
OKC- loads of talent. Can they take the next step? I’d be careful about the “they got lots of length, they are going to be good.” Toronto is a cautionary tale there. There is more than one way to build a good team. The length needs to have basketball skills and durability. I think the OKC core is talented, but think they need one more star, or need an internal piece to make a real leap from good player to second star. They won’t contend until they have a real second star. But it could happen this year.
Potential Fallers
Warriors- they somehow got… older. Steph, Klay, Dray, and Paul all have so many miles and all missed a lot of time in the past two years. Looney, GPII, and Wiggins all have durability issues too, the bench is scaring no one, they have no size beyond Looney, and the Paul fit is a huge question. I think they will regret giving up on Poole so soon. They are still good, but this is held together by duct tape, and has a shelf life of 1-2 years max. And they’re best just isn’t that scary (unless you get supernova, game 7 Steph). Once again, this is much closer to a play-in team than top 4, and by trading Poole, there is now no obvious way to get better.
Memphis- they are going to miss Tyus Jones. I like Smart, but a team that already was short on playmaking lost even more. A lot of pressure on Bane taking another leap and JJJ becoming more of an offensive force. The D is crazy good, but can they score, especially without Ja (and even with Ja)? Probably still a playoff team, but the ceiling isn’t there, especially with the ja questions.
Treading water
Minnesota- it just isn’t working. I’m not sure it can work. They really just need a reboot and build properly around Ant.
Pellies- not enough talent without Zion. And not sure the talent fits with Zion. At least not in an elite way. A good team, but not good enough. Tons of assets, but they need a plan/direction. I wonder if the front office secretly wishes they didn’t have Zion and could just commit their assets to building a winner without having to worry about Zion injuries and how to make it work with him on the court.
bottom tier.
Utah- seems unfair, as they are the best of the bottom. There is a good foundation being built. But not sure they can hope for better than 11-12th this year.
spurs- not ready yet, but obviously a bright future.
Rockets- yuck. No idea what they are doing. Loads of young talent, but the sum is so much less than the parts. FVV and brooks are not the answer. They seem “two years away from being two years away.”
Blazers- who knows?
For the Kings, we are a step below the top 4 in terms of top end talent, but will try to make up for it with chemistry, cohesion, and depth. We are playing the long game, realizing many of these teams are declining or built for short term success. I’d guess we challenge for top 4 if one of the big teams falters or has injuries (the two LA teams being most likely) and will battle potential risers like Dallas or talented fallers (Warriors and Memphis) for 4-6 seeds, trying to stay out of the play-in. Crazy to think the quality of teams that will be trying to stay above the play-in line.
