Kings after OG
- Thread starter iowamcnabb
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I mean really:
-If Fox doesn't break his finger game 4, we probably move on.
-If HB and Huerter BOTH actually play like NBA players, we probably move on.
-If Domas doesn't get chest-stomped and probably dealing with some sort of set-back where he couldn't shoot the ball, we probably move on.
Just unfortunate really that we ran so freaking good all year with guys not missing time to injury in the regular season and both our stars were banged up for our playoff series.
-If Fox doesn't break his finger game 4, we probably move on.
-If HB and Huerter BOTH actually play like NBA players, we probably move on.
-If Domas doesn't get chest-stomped and probably dealing with some sort of set-back where he couldn't shoot the ball, we probably move on.
Just unfortunate really that we ran so freaking good all year with guys not missing time to injury in the regular season and both our stars were banged up for our playoff series.
And what happened come playoff time? That 1st offense dropped to around the bottom 4-5 and ended up 12th out of 16. The defense was what it was. I pointed this out before the Heat kind of tanked and it changed the ratings list but up until the finals, the Kings were 1 rank AHEAD of the Nuggets in defensive net rating. Don't get me wrong, the Kings need to improve defensively and for sure OG would help and I never said he was just a defender, but 1 player isn't changing the entire course of a teams defense. If it did Davion would have had a bigger impact on the ratings in the end. Instead, that number 1 offense fell off so badly he sat in favor of anyone, including Terence Davis, that could generate offense. Here's the fact, while the results may be inconclusive because it's a 1 series sample size they were the offense didn't entirely translate to postseason and Fox/Monk had to carry the load out of pick and roll.
Now onto the Kings needs and OG in particular. There's a huge difference between Barnes and OG in relation to what the Kings actually looked to need in the playoffs which was another go to scorer. Barnes in iso? 96th percentile. ELITE. OG? 8th percentile. Yes, that's right, 8th. However both of their freq%'s in iso is really low for someone you expect to generate offense. In other words both Barnes and OG have been role guys on offense in terms of usage in isolation and creating shot opportunities but one has been ELITE when doing so and the other was almost 90 percent worse relatively speaking. The good thing I've heard is that OG seems to want to show people he can be more of a scorer. The only thing is especially last season he had opportunities at times to do so. Now the question is will he be another Harrison Barnes? Where his team would actually be better off with him having more of a selfish scorers mindset and he just won't take a bad shot, even if it's the best shot at the time? Around 30 is what it is, but what if he gets a max deal from someone? He's going to test FA regardless I'd bet. Then that's a bigger piece of the pie.
Now onto the Kings needs and OG in particular. There's a huge difference between Barnes and OG in relation to what the Kings actually looked to need in the playoffs which was another go to scorer. Barnes in iso? 96th percentile. ELITE. OG? 8th percentile. Yes, that's right, 8th. However both of their freq%'s in iso is really low for someone you expect to generate offense. In other words both Barnes and OG have been role guys on offense in terms of usage in isolation and creating shot opportunities but one has been ELITE when doing so and the other was almost 90 percent worse relatively speaking. The good thing I've heard is that OG seems to want to show people he can be more of a scorer. The only thing is especially last season he had opportunities at times to do so. Now the question is will he be another Harrison Barnes? Where his team would actually be better off with him having more of a selfish scorers mindset and he just won't take a bad shot, even if it's the best shot at the time? Around 30 is what it is, but what if he gets a max deal from someone? He's going to test FA regardless I'd bet. Then that's a bigger piece of the pie.
The question is how far? For Monte to be clearly entertaining any of these rumors and offers shows he thinks this team isn't quite there. And IMO it's better to be safe than sorry since this will be his last summer to have ANY cap space unless he unloads big chunks of the roster at some point or just lets guys walk now and next year. And we can what if all we want. The what was was that Fox going down sealed it. You know, the same Fox that for a few seasons prior to last year had a games missed ratio not too far off that Beal guy?
Yeah, I'm not discounting that, but as I posted above, the Nuggets up until the finals were 8th in defensive net rating, 1 spot below the Kings. They blew through the competition on the other end and did all year. Well, mid 50's in wins isn't exactly blowing through the competition but there were no real dominant bar setters this season so it's fair. During the season the Nuggets ended up 15th in def net rating. Oddly enough, right around the area where the Kings need to shoot for. During the Kings pretty good run during the regular season that solidified them as a 3 seed, they actually were right around there for a stretch before falling back off again. I think the middle of the pack on defense should be the goal.
That's not exactly fair though. Gordon had his chance with Orlando to basically be the "man" for a team. I'd be more concerned if a player was like, "Nah, I'll just collect the dirty jocks and wash them after the game and shoot when commanded", haha. Now, what his value has been reported to be in his own mind is a little out of whack but welcome to the NBA.
I think getting better is all they can hope for. Being a championship is past tense, trying to get there is doing anything you can to improve your team talent wise if it fits and OG fits for sure. Yeah, it's a question mark. I'll say this for the positives of it. OG is in the last year of his deal and wants to prove to the league he can be a max level player I'm sure. That means the Kings could very well be the benefit of that. Now, on the downside if he kind of just defers to his teammates, you've traded out Harrison Barnes for more athletic ability and defense on the plus side. If Barnes or OG are going to fade, better at least get D and leaping ability I guess.
I’ve mentioned this in other posts, but those offensive improvements in the playoffs are mainly going to come from Sabonis patching the holes in his game (ability to go/finish right and ability to hit a midrange jumper) and Murray hopefully developing into more of an on the ball scoring threat as time goes on. If Murray doesn’t seem to be progressing in that direction next season, you still have the ability to package Murray and picks to trade for another go-to option to support Fox (while pushing Sabonis into a 3rd scorer/facilitator role).
I’ve said this before in many other posts but many of the Kings offensive struggles in the playoffs seem to be centered around Sabonis.
Yes, our shooters couldn’t hit anything but they were also taking different types of 3PT shots largely due to how the Warriors were defending Sabonis. Their ability to sag off Sabonis allowed their defenders to overplay our shooters as a back door cut is negated when the opposing C is essentially camped out in the paint. This made it more difficult for our shooters to get separation/space and find a rhythm.
If Sabonis could punish opposing defenses that sag off him (like Jokić can), it forces the opposing C to come out of the paint and forces the opposing wing defenders to respect the back door cut. Making it much easier for our shooters to find space and get in a rhythm.
We saw how effective that type of offense was in the regular season. Teams were not sagging off Sabonis like the Warriors did and it led to the #1 ranked offense. If Sabonis can patch that hole in his game, we become that much more difficult to defend. It’s funny how something so small like having your C be a good midrange shooter can have such a profound impact on the rest of the offense but that seems to be the case with the Kings at this point.
Yes, our shooters couldn’t hit anything but they were also taking different types of 3PT shots largely due to how the Warriors were defending Sabonis. Their ability to sag off Sabonis allowed their defenders to overplay our shooters as a back door cut is negated when the opposing C is essentially camped out in the paint. This made it more difficult for our shooters to get separation/space and find a rhythm.
If Sabonis could punish opposing defenses that sag off him (like Jokić can), it forces the opposing C to come out of the paint and forces the opposing wing defenders to respect the back door cut. Making it much easier for our shooters to find space and get in a rhythm.
We saw how effective that type of offense was in the regular season. Teams were not sagging off Sabonis like the Warriors did and it led to the #1 ranked offense. If Sabonis can patch that hole in his game, we become that much more difficult to defend. It’s funny how something so small like having your C be a good midrange shooter can have such a profound impact on the rest of the offense but that seems to be the case with the Kings at this point.
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Sabonis dominated the regular season and ended our playoff drought, but he also choked in the playoffs. I agree with you that our main offensive struggles in the playoffs were because of Sabonis, but Huerter is easily culprit #2. But at this point in Domas' career, how likely is it that he develops a consistent jumper? He just wrapped up his 7th season and we've seen never seen him be able to consistently add the 3pt shot to his game. At this point in his career, I think it's a "what you see is what you get" type of situation.
Our team became too reliant on Sabonis and some of our shooters (Huerter) completely crumbled as a result. In my opinion, I think it means 1 or 2 things. 1) we need another star who can create their own shot because we became too reliant on Sabonis. Fox can't carry an entire team despite how elite he was last year. 2) We need role players who won't crumble if Sabonis gets shut down. I've been a proponent of replacing Huerter with Austin Reaves through FA. If I'm being honest, the entire playoff series completely turned me off from Huerter. You're paid to shoot.. how do you completely get cold in the playoffs like that? I'm wondering if it's a mental thing considering his mediocre FT shooting.
Our team became too reliant on Sabonis and some of our shooters (Huerter) completely crumbled as a result. In my opinion, I think it means 1 or 2 things. 1) we need another star who can create their own shot because we became too reliant on Sabonis. Fox can't carry an entire team despite how elite he was last year. 2) We need role players who won't crumble if Sabonis gets shut down. I've been a proponent of replacing Huerter with Austin Reaves through FA. If I'm being honest, the entire playoff series completely turned me off from Huerter. You're paid to shoot.. how do you completely get cold in the playoffs like that? I'm wondering if it's a mental thing considering his mediocre FT shooting.
If Portland can't retain Grant (which means paying top of the market) then they may as well ship Dame because they just got one more step away from contention, and frankly they don't want to hear it but they are still a play-in team at BEST right now.
They seem uninterested in facing that reality, so I have next to no doubt Grant will be back with the Blazers on a deal that looks bad in 4 years.
They seem uninterested in facing that reality, so I have next to no doubt Grant will be back with the Blazers on a deal that looks bad in 4 years.
Sabonis shot .500 from 3-10 feet in the regular season, and .512 from 10-16 feet. It does not get much more consistent than that. By comparison, DeMar DeRozan, renowned for his mid-range game, shot .491 from 3-10 feet and .499 from 10-16 feet. Between 16 feet and the 3-point line, DeRozan shot .459 to .429 for Sabonis.
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Pretty much, I saw the same thing during the series but centered around Sabonis meant centered around the DHO and yeah, that's exactly what happened. When the Kings player came around the other side of the screen, or as a Kings player came up, the Dubs sent a double, or met it from the side. Which is actually something teams started to do later in the year as well. The Warriors were there on most DHO's. They did back off sometimes until the play was initiated or screw up on help from the side, with Klay getting noticeably frustrated with his teammates at times, and change it up but they attacked those and made those once easy shots a lot harder.
Still more shots should have gone in but this is the kind of thing that can happen when you become that dependent on a single play requiring a system and predictable movements away from the rim and not towards it. That's why pick and roll is always going to be the go to play in the NBA, because you're always gobbling up space to the rim not away from it. Going away gives defenses time to meet you if they're athletically equipped to do so and you're not going to draw contact on a DHO unless you have players that can consistently change direction quick enough out of the hand off and put the ball on the deck. Huerter and Murray really aren't the quickest or great enough in their ball handling to make it much of a threat as of yet. Huerter does have a pretty good handle though I guess but it's best used in pick and roll. The DHO is probably the main reason why both Huerter and espeically Keegan had free throw attempts that barely even register for a starting player. I mean, they don't even come close to scratching the top 100 of the NBA.
I do agree, Domas needs to shoot those mid range J's. Like I've said before though, I think it's unrealistic and potentially damaging to try and alter his game too much at this stage. He's an all star. If you have needs you do what Monte tried to do in trading for Beal, you keep your All star as is and bring in help for him. As a pure scorer OG hasn't proven in the league that he's going to be the type of help offensively that Beal is. The iso stats aren't totally conclusive but they say quite a bit about probability for a player like OG. Even if OG is as inadequate in getting his own baskets for the rest of his career he does provide something the team doesn't have and that's a lob threat. The Nets back in the day made Kenyon Martin look like a max guy with the right set up. This is why I'm actually not off the idea of Collins finally getting to Sac. If you can't fill precise holes, and this team looks to need offensive talent individually that can be a your 2nd option, then become different. A lob threat that can force teams to watch out behind their line of defense would be a great 2nd option pass play for Domas up high.
Still more shots should have gone in but this is the kind of thing that can happen when you become that dependent on a single play requiring a system and predictable movements away from the rim and not towards it. That's why pick and roll is always going to be the go to play in the NBA, because you're always gobbling up space to the rim not away from it. Going away gives defenses time to meet you if they're athletically equipped to do so and you're not going to draw contact on a DHO unless you have players that can consistently change direction quick enough out of the hand off and put the ball on the deck. Huerter and Murray really aren't the quickest or great enough in their ball handling to make it much of a threat as of yet. Huerter does have a pretty good handle though I guess but it's best used in pick and roll. The DHO is probably the main reason why both Huerter and espeically Keegan had free throw attempts that barely even register for a starting player. I mean, they don't even come close to scratching the top 100 of the NBA.
I do agree, Domas needs to shoot those mid range J's. Like I've said before though, I think it's unrealistic and potentially damaging to try and alter his game too much at this stage. He's an all star. If you have needs you do what Monte tried to do in trading for Beal, you keep your All star as is and bring in help for him. As a pure scorer OG hasn't proven in the league that he's going to be the type of help offensively that Beal is. The iso stats aren't totally conclusive but they say quite a bit about probability for a player like OG. Even if OG is as inadequate in getting his own baskets for the rest of his career he does provide something the team doesn't have and that's a lob threat. The Nets back in the day made Kenyon Martin look like a max guy with the right set up. This is why I'm actually not off the idea of Collins finally getting to Sac. If you can't fill precise holes, and this team looks to need offensive talent individually that can be a your 2nd option, then become different. A lob threat that can force teams to watch out behind their line of defense would be a great 2nd option pass play for Domas up high.
It's helps but likely won't negate. Adding OG now is almost totally necessary unless the Kings can find a ready now stopper some other way. The Kings aren't going toe to toe talent wise with the Suns. Nobody is with that top 3. Hate to break the news. The West changed last deadline and if this tandem doesn't blow up someway and fail (CROSSING FINGERS!) then probably nobody is. Maybe Denver with their big 4? Who knows. That doesn't mean the Suns make it all the way through and win a ring because that has so many factors to it, but on paper it puts the Suns quite a few steps above a team like the Kings. Horrifying payroll and all.
I mean Caccia already answered this. He was excellent in the midrange and shot 37% on 83 3PA this season. Thats not nothing. And I can't recall in the regular season him EVER hesitating like he was in the playoffs if he was wide open. He was willing to let that thing fly. I think his willingness to pull open shots this year was a huge reason he took a leap to an All-NBA talent.
Again, this goes back to my theory that he had a set back with the thumb and couldnt feel the ball correctly. Not only the shooting, but he his handle was sloppy and he was getting stripped way more often than I remember. And the chest-stomp after game 3 couldn't have helped much either
Again, this goes back to my theory that he had a set back with the thumb and couldnt feel the ball correctly. Not only the shooting, but he his handle was sloppy and he was getting stripped way more often than I remember. And the chest-stomp after game 3 couldn't have helped much either
I think people are overestimating what Phoenix did. They are already into the luxury tax and only have 5 players under contract. They also only have a single 2nd round pick in the draft. They will have no depth this season while sporting a great starting lineup that is injury prone. They will likely have to run their starters out there at 37 - 42 minutes a night just to complete for a top 6 spot in the playoffs.
Hopefully but they could also do what other super teams have done in the past and just run up the score early. If they didn't move Ayton they have a ton of options. And depth for what? They can probably cherry pick min. guys left and right if their big 3 isn't hated by players. Come playoff time that changes. The Nuggets in the finals had games where they pretty much played a 7 man rotation. The final game players 8 and 9 played 8 minutes combined.
Much easier to tighten the rotation during the playoffs. No back to backs, and often 2 days off between games. You have to have some depth to win in the NBA. Look at Minnesota last season. The traded away their depth to strengthen their starting lineup and became a worse team.
The Kings had their starting lineup rated as one of the top 5 lineups in the league a couple of years ago. Every time they went to the bench, there would be a 5-10 point turnaround.
The Kings had their starting lineup rated as one of the top 5 lineups in the league a couple of years ago. Every time they went to the bench, there would be a 5-10 point turnaround.
Minnesota is an anomaly. They didn't get the memo that the 90's are over. A big, lumbering offensive/defensive PF/C combo is nowhere to be seen in the playoffs right now. KAT and Edwards are concerning still though. The Wolves don't really lack talent even now and only ended up 6 games behind Sac in the end. They were on the Kings heels at one point. The Kings don't want to get stuck in the potential muck of the middle this year.
Sure, depth was an issue but I think the Wolves depth would only have been the primary issue had their record with KAT been better. I mean we've heard the same excuses for some the Kings woes injuries wise and the Wolves had KAT for 29 games. Take any franchise player off a team and see what happens. Obviously, while not totally DOA the record with KAT indicates that the fit is off somewhere perhaps. As it was they were basically a .500 team with him and without him. This season they can add to that depth should they choose to do so. If they keep that team together that is. Like most teams making a huge move you need a season or two to judge. The Nuggets are perfect example of that. They made their last big finishing touch add in Gordon and it took a little while until they got healthy and then it clicked at the right time. There's still time for them to find some balance between KAT and Gobert also. Even if it's to rotate them or something.
As for the Suns, I'm not sure they won't pull some of that bench time TLC anyway. All they have to be is healthy at the right time. The playoffs are a different beast and the teams that waited and struck at the right time this last season (Suns, Lakers) may not have been the 3 seed but they went farther than 2 or 3. It depends on what they do but I don't think the Suns are priming for regular season play.
As for the Suns, I'm not sure they won't pull some of that bench time TLC anyway. All they have to be is healthy at the right time. The playoffs are a different beast and the teams that waited and struck at the right time this last season (Suns, Lakers) may not have been the 3 seed but they went farther than 2 or 3. It depends on what they do but I don't think the Suns are priming for regular season play.
Obviously, their biggest key is to be healthy come playoff time. They still have to make the playoffs. The Lakers had more depth last season (and theirs sucked prior to the trade), and it still took an astronomical amount of help from the refs for them just to make the play in. The Suns starters have to stay healthy or they are in a lot of trouble IMO.