Honestly, this is the most ridiculous post I’ve read in a long time on this board, and that is saying something. We are going to drop from 3 to 13 in 27 games?
The lakers are going from 13 to 5 in 27 games, and making up 6.5 games on us (and everyone) because they swapped Russ for Russell and Vandy? Your prediction would make them need to go like 20-7. You realize they are only 11-14 when both AD and Bron play, so 20-7 is a miraculous clip for them. Even 20-7 only gets them to 45 wins.
The warriors don’t have Steph and are plodding along at .500. They weren’t any better with him. Why are they suddenly zooming by us in the last 27 games too?
OKC is a nice story, but even with as well as they have played have never moved above .500. They are likely pivoting toward the future as well. But even so, making up 5.5 games on us in the last 27 would probably require them to go like 18-9 (getting to 44 wins). Seems crazy for a team two games below .500.
Same for Portland. When have they shown the ability to go 17-10 (needed to reach 44 wins)? That team has shown us they are at or below .500 all year. They just traded a starter.
And Utah, who just traded two rotation players for future assets, and is probably doing more of that today, is going to pass us too? They need to go 17-9 to reach 44 games. Even with Conley and Vandy, they have been 15-23 since they started 12-6. Suddenly, despite trading a starter and rotation player and pivoting to the future, they are going to revert back to early season form?
And (this is more subjective) I truly think Dallas is lucky to go .500 the rest of the way. Their wing situation is worst in the league.
The Suns, Lakers, and Wolves got better, but the lakers are so far back it likely doesn’t impact us. The rest of the conference is the still the same. Not sure why we are suddenly plummeting 10 spots. Yes, the schedule is tougher now, but our path to 44 wins requires us to go 13-15. That is way more doable than the 18, 19, 20 wins teams below us need. We have lost 4 straight once (to open the season), 3 straight once (in November) and haven’t been worse than 5-5 in any 10 game stretch since November. We are 31-19 in our last 50 games, are above .500 on the road, and routinely win close games. We aren’t suddenly going to be an entirely different team and get passed by 10 teams.
These moves put us more squarely in the play-in conversation, but 13th?!?!? To me, you have:
Top 3 (48+ wins) Denver, Memphis, Phoenix
Fighting for 4-6 (44-48 wins) New Orleans, Minnesota, Clippers, Kings, Dallas
Play-in (41-44 wins) - Warriors, Lakers
Out- Portland, OKC, Utah
Current record matters. Even getting to 41 wins is huge for the lakers given that it will require going 16-11. 44 wins requires Dallas to go 14-12 against a tough schedule, with Luka still out, no wings, and needing time to integrate Kyrie and Luka. And top 3 might be bullish on Phoenix. They are one of the three best teams, but they might not get to #3 in the standings. KD is out through the ASG, meaning he misses at least 4 games. Phoenix is MUCH worse without him, bridges and Cam, and will then have just 22 games to figure it out. They are easily the biggest threat in the playoffs, but they might not get up to #3 in the standings.
