Where do we finish?
- Thread starter Turgenev
- Start date
I haven’t looked at schedules. The analysis that I ran over the summer was pre SL, I think. Don’t remember.
Having seen bits n pieces of preseason, the one team projected ahead of the Kings that I think will do much worse is Portland. Dame just doesn’t look right to me. Analysts are projecting Portland ahead of the Kings, because Dame is a top ten player when he’s right. The Kings simply don’t have that caliber of a player and it’s much more sound to err on regression and incremental rather than exponential improvements. No decent analyst is going to assume any of the players with more than two yrs of data are going to jump levels. The only players, who has a chance of jumping levels are the kids (Murray bcz there is no baseline n Davion) with less than two yrs of data. Like, for example, there is a greater probability that Monk plays at his career average rather than his outlier year. My money is on the career average.
Having seen bits n pieces of preseason, the one team projected ahead of the Kings that I think will do much worse is Portland. Dame just doesn’t look right to me. Analysts are projecting Portland ahead of the Kings, because Dame is a top ten player when he’s right. The Kings simply don’t have that caliber of a player and it’s much more sound to err on regression and incremental rather than exponential improvements. No decent analyst is going to assume any of the players with more than two yrs of data are going to jump levels. The only players, who has a chance of jumping levels are the kids (Murray bcz there is no baseline n Davion) with less than two yrs of data. Like, for example, there is a greater probability that Monk plays at his career average rather than his outlier year. My money is on the career average.
kids equals Murray, Mitchell and KZ. Moneke maybe can be added to that group.
yeah I see TD replacing Monk in the 2nd unit with the 5 being: Holmes, Lyles/Moneke, Murray, TD, Mitchell.
also your point if true favors the Kings who have 3 post all star break games against Portland who will by then be in full tank mode.
the only place I disagree is on Fox’s defense. His defense against players such as Ja show the talent is there but the motivation is lacking. He could jump a level on defense.
yeah I see TD replacing Monk in the 2nd unit with the 5 being: Holmes, Lyles/Moneke, Murray, TD, Mitchell.
also your point if true favors the Kings who have 3 post all star break games against Portland who will by then be in full tank mode.
the only place I disagree is on Fox’s defense. His defense against players such as Ja show the talent is there but the motivation is lacking. He could jump a level on defense.
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Fox has consistently coasted and been disinterested on defense. His play at the start of last year certainly felt like someone wanting a trade. Sadly he learned no one wanted him due to his bloated contract.
and it’s not work ethic. Fox strives to be Dame when he should strive to be GP1. His lack of attention on defense has been a key reason this team has sucked. No one deserves hate but to say Fox should be traded is understandable but impossible. That was proven last year.
as Kings fans we all hope he turns it around.
and it’s not work ethic. Fox strives to be Dame when he should strive to be GP1. His lack of attention on defense has been a key reason this team has sucked. No one deserves hate but to say Fox should be traded is understandable but impossible. That was proven last year.
as Kings fans we all hope he turns it around.
I think most people have the same difficulty hell if it was easy they wouldn't pay scouts the money they make. At the end of the day the only way to tell if a player really has what it takes to play in the NBA is to watch them play in the NBA. I think this is especially true when you're looking at defensive specialists that are not prolific scores before they play in the league. It's hard to think of any player that was able to survive on defense alone there have been a few that didn't score very much and still were huge advantage for their team. Count me as one of the people excited to watch KZ play and I'm definitely rooting for him too make a big spot for himself on the team with solid defense. Hit the open jumper we need be and we are looking at a solid piece here.
With respect to KZ, this is one of those situations where a defensive specialist can make it on a well oiled team. He isnt needed to score but lock down the offensive player of the opposition and NOT mess up the flow of the offense. I dont instantly get worried when I see the ball go to KZ. I dont think he is a dumb player who is turn over prone, or looking for his shot so will shoot whenever he touches the ball (looking at you Metu...). He will move the ball and get his buckets on cuts to the rim and kick out 3s. He has to improve his shot to be effective in this role (ala PJ Tucker), but I think he could be a more defensively versatile version of tucker as his career blossoms.
With all the excitement of the season however, looking at the schedule, i think it will be important to remember the bear of a schedule we have to start the season. I think that it can be expected we start something like 3-7 or 4-6. I would not be surprised. BUT if we hold it together and are actually able to show resilience instead of stupidly firing our coach or GM 24 games into the year (ala Mike malone), I think this team could very well be a .500 to slightly over .500 team. I could see certain good teams could split series with us and my prediction is we fall somewhere in the 40-42 to 42-40 range. That should be good enough to at least make the 9th seed for the play in. I see Utah and San Antonio obviously dropping out, with Clippers obviously moving into a secured berth. But I dont see the blazers jumping ahead of us. 9 and 10 will be a Kings/Laker/Blazers combo but I think all in all, we are the best of those 3 teams. I think our max position though would be as high as 8. Either way, the margin of error is very very small here. The coaches will need to stay on this team to not let them get down after losses and keep them up to play the competition (even if its bad teams). They need to get a little predatorial and hunt those weaker teams and beat them into oblivion. Cant give an inch in this season.
1. GSW
2. Clippers
3. Suns
4. Denver
5. Memphis
6. Mavs
7. Pelicans
8. T-Wolves
9. Kings
10. Lakers
11. Blazers
12. Rockets
13. Thunder
14. Jazz
15 Spurs
With all the excitement of the season however, looking at the schedule, i think it will be important to remember the bear of a schedule we have to start the season. I think that it can be expected we start something like 3-7 or 4-6. I would not be surprised. BUT if we hold it together and are actually able to show resilience instead of stupidly firing our coach or GM 24 games into the year (ala Mike malone), I think this team could very well be a .500 to slightly over .500 team. I could see certain good teams could split series with us and my prediction is we fall somewhere in the 40-42 to 42-40 range. That should be good enough to at least make the 9th seed for the play in. I see Utah and San Antonio obviously dropping out, with Clippers obviously moving into a secured berth. But I dont see the blazers jumping ahead of us. 9 and 10 will be a Kings/Laker/Blazers combo but I think all in all, we are the best of those 3 teams. I think our max position though would be as high as 8. Either way, the margin of error is very very small here. The coaches will need to stay on this team to not let them get down after losses and keep them up to play the competition (even if its bad teams). They need to get a little predatorial and hunt those weaker teams and beat them into oblivion. Cant give an inch in this season.
1. GSW
2. Clippers
3. Suns
4. Denver
5. Memphis
6. Mavs
7. Pelicans
8. T-Wolves
9. Kings
10. Lakers
11. Blazers
12. Rockets
13. Thunder
14. Jazz
15 Spurs
I voted straight playoffs and now even more confident in that assessment. I think the Kings are more talented and deeper than a couple teams I originally projected as better.
Dallas and Minnesota definitely being teams I think the Kings are better than
I wouldn’t say the Kings are better than a full strength LAC but will likely have a better regular season with how Clippers manage their stars.
Also, a big one is Denver. I think the Kings might be better than them. I originally slightly leaned Denver because of how long they have been together and they play defense better, but if the Kings settle into being a mid-level defensive team they are top to bottom a better and deeper team than Denver imo.
GSW will likely make some run and pull ahead of the Kings. I expect Portland to fall out to low play in territory. Nola, Memphis, PHX, Denver to stay put..and see the Kings finishing top 6 in the west and getting a straight playoff berth, health permitting
Dallas and Minnesota definitely being teams I think the Kings are better than
I wouldn’t say the Kings are better than a full strength LAC but will likely have a better regular season with how Clippers manage their stars.
Also, a big one is Denver. I think the Kings might be better than them. I originally slightly leaned Denver because of how long they have been together and they play defense better, but if the Kings settle into being a mid-level defensive team they are top to bottom a better and deeper team than Denver imo.
GSW will likely make some run and pull ahead of the Kings. I expect Portland to fall out to low play in territory. Nola, Memphis, PHX, Denver to stay put..and see the Kings finishing top 6 in the west and getting a straight playoff berth, health permitting
Looks like we have a pretty easy schedule coming up..
I think we can go 17-7 in our next 24 games. That would put us at 31-18. How do you all think we will do? We probably will lose some we should win and will win some we should lose. I say 17-7 but it can go bad if we lose people to injury and could possibly hit about 13-11 at the worst, and at best probably 19-5.
After starting 0-4 we have had a pretty tough schedule. A lot tougher than what's coming up. We were 14-7 in those tough games so I have faith we can do better against teams we should be whipping.
I think we can go 17-7 in our next 24 games. That would put us at 31-18. How do you all think we will do? We probably will lose some we should win and will win some we should lose. I say 17-7 but it can go bad if we lose people to injury and could possibly hit about 13-11 at the worst, and at best probably 19-5.
After starting 0-4 we have had a pretty tough schedule. A lot tougher than what's coming up. We were 14-7 in those tough games so I have faith we can do better against teams we should be whipping.
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Now that the regular season is getting close to the end, it is interesting to go back and read through this thread. 
There are a few that seem to be right on the money with estimates of mid-40's to about 50 wins!
Just wanted to reflect (as a fan) on what appears to be an overwhelmingly great season for this team so far vs. how we all felt about it when it started.
There are a few that seem to be right on the money with estimates of mid-40's to about 50 wins!Just wanted to reflect (as a fan) on what appears to be an overwhelmingly great season for this team so far vs. how we all felt about it when it started.
