Where do we finish?
- Thread starter Turgenev
- Start date
If we want to compare year-over-year improvements, the recent example that came first to my mind was the Suns, who had a 50% y-o-y improvement between '19-'20 and '20-'21. That Suns team didn't change a lot, and had only one major change: Rubio --> Chris Paul. They also swapped out Oubre --> Crowder. Other than that, they had the same coach, and 8 of their top-10 guys earning minutes were on the team the previous year (and 7 of those 8 again in the top-10 in minutes). One big change (and keep in mind Rubio was a .116 WS/48 guy, not a chump) and they went up 17 wins.
We have a lot more than one big change. 5 of our top-10 in minutes last year are gone (Haliburton, Hield, Jones, Harkless, DiVincenzo), one is unlikely to play top-10 minutes (Metu) and one is likely to be an entirely different player (Holmes).
If we ask what's the same from last year, the answer is Fox/Barnes/Mitchell (who should improve as a sophomore). The rest is basically new:
Domas (~= Hali, better fit)
Murray (> Harkless)
Huerter (> checked-out Buddy)
Monk (> diVincenzo, probably)
A focused Holmes (> distracted Holmes)
Lyles (> Jones, probably)
Also, we have a new coach, and I think we all agree Brown >>>>>>> Walton/Gentry.
With that amount of change in the guys playing big minutes, of course we have a chance to make a big change in our y-o-y record. There's a lot more change here than the Suns had a couple of years ago. Now, that doesn't mean we WILL improve up to playoffs level, but with that much turnover, there's no reason to say, oh, we're the same team we've always been. Nope, very different team. Different coach. Looks like a different attitude.
We're not looking at a tweak from last year's roster. The team that going to take the court on Wednesday didn't exist last year. It would be foolish to put a low ceiling on their season before they even start playing - especially given what we've seen in preseason.
We have a lot more than one big change. 5 of our top-10 in minutes last year are gone (Haliburton, Hield, Jones, Harkless, DiVincenzo), one is unlikely to play top-10 minutes (Metu) and one is likely to be an entirely different player (Holmes).
If we ask what's the same from last year, the answer is Fox/Barnes/Mitchell (who should improve as a sophomore). The rest is basically new:
Domas (~= Hali, better fit)
Murray (> Harkless)
Huerter (> checked-out Buddy)
Monk (> diVincenzo, probably)
A focused Holmes (> distracted Holmes)
Lyles (> Jones, probably)
Also, we have a new coach, and I think we all agree Brown >>>>>>> Walton/Gentry.
With that amount of change in the guys playing big minutes, of course we have a chance to make a big change in our y-o-y record. There's a lot more change here than the Suns had a couple of years ago. Now, that doesn't mean we WILL improve up to playoffs level, but with that much turnover, there's no reason to say, oh, we're the same team we've always been. Nope, very different team. Different coach. Looks like a different attitude.
We're not looking at a tweak from last year's roster. The team that going to take the court on Wednesday didn't exist last year. It would be foolish to put a low ceiling on their season before they even start playing - especially given what we've seen in preseason.
It's sort of worth noting the Suns bubble performance foretold their big jump, but either way it was a big jump. If you go by "stats don't lie" approach they should still be barely above water.
And the interesting thing is MANY are predicting them to take a tumble because of externalities with ownership, Ayton, etc.
I think your roster analysis is pretty much on track. Of course someone can say "why are you assuming every change is positive" and the answer for that is because we SUCKED. How much worse do you get without trying to lose than we were bad last year?
And the interesting thing is MANY are predicting them to take a tumble because of externalities with ownership, Ayton, etc.
I think your roster analysis is pretty much on track. Of course someone can say "why are you assuming every change is positive" and the answer for that is because we SUCKED. How much worse do you get without trying to lose than we were bad last year?
Additionally, there have been many examples of teams taking big jumps within a year or two of retooling their roster and hiring new coaches. Minnesota, Cleveland, and Chicago are all teams that come to mind that made big 20+ win improvements.
I'm not saying we will make a 20+ game improvement, especially out in the west. But I think we can, at the bare minimum, make the play-in. The more we win, the more attractive we become to bigger names as a team to play for.
I'm not saying we will make a 20+ game improvement, especially out in the west. But I think we can, at the bare minimum, make the play-in. The more we win, the more attractive we become to bigger names as a team to play for.
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The thing with this year's West is that while there are lots of good teams, there are clearly some teams that are playing for draft position. So, while play offs is a challenge, play-in must be expected.
The Jazz and Spurs have joined OKC and Rockets in a race to the bottom (Spurs hadn't fully committed to it so far). If Blazers falter early, or if Dame misses time again, they also might join the party soon. That leaves ten teams, including us to contend for playoffs/playins. This is a very achievable aim.
Finishing top-6 is a big challenge though. Playins to playoffs might come down to a bit of luck too.
The Jazz and Spurs have joined OKC and Rockets in a race to the bottom (Spurs hadn't fully committed to it so far). If Blazers falter early, or if Dame misses time again, they also might join the party soon. That leaves ten teams, including us to contend for playoffs/playins. This is a very achievable aim.
Finishing top-6 is a big challenge though. Playins to playoffs might come down to a bit of luck too.
True, but it's not strange to see young players make major jumps in a short time. Apart from growth, sometimes the right circumstances can bring about the change. Look at Poole, who was drafted 28th, and was assigned to the G-league. With Klay missing time, he was able to grow into a serious piece for the Ws.
KZ was contending for minutes with Butler, best player on a team with title aspirations. Here, he will be playing a role where we have been looking for someone who can guard opposing wings. Add in familiarity with Brown, and this is a much different situation than Miami.
Yes, time will tell, and as fans, we can only hope, but I think his presence in the starting lineup helps provide balance to both the first and second units.
KZ was contending for minutes with Butler, best player on a team with title aspirations. Here, he will be playing a role where we have been looking for someone who can guard opposing wings. Add in familiarity with Brown, and this is a much different situation than Miami.
Yes, time will tell, and as fans, we can only hope, but I think his presence in the starting lineup helps provide balance to both the first and second units.
Watching Okpala preason highlights, Brown seems to use Okpala as our version of Draymond Green. One game he will guard Lillard, the next he is guarding Davis and Lebron. His defensive versatility is quite insane. On offense he needs work, he is active and moves well without the ball, and seems to have a decent handle. If he is able to shoot at least 34-35%, I think he could be pretty damn useful, but I think that was always the big if with him.
to be fair Okpala replaces Harkless in the line-up in about the same role…..
KZ shot 34.6% on about 1 shot a game
Harkless shot 30.7 on about 2 shots a game (but almost double the minutes)
KZ’s percentage isn’t great but Harkless was abysmal. For those pounding on the previous coaches, part of the problem was an abysmal roster. For the first time in forever, Monte has at least given his coaches a chance.
KZ shot 34.6% on about 1 shot a game
Harkless shot 30.7 on about 2 shots a game (but almost double the minutes)
KZ’s percentage isn’t great but Harkless was abysmal. For those pounding on the previous coaches, part of the problem was an abysmal roster. For the first time in forever, Monte has at least given his coaches a chance.
I don't think Luke gets off the hook for the roster he was given. I don't think it was a great roster but he seemed completely lost and unable to integrate players that didn't just do the thing he was looking for and he somehow made the Bagley situation go from bad to worse. I believe Joerger was insubordinate and deserved to be let go but by the same token he would have gotten better results with that roster had he not checked out midway through the prior season.
It is rare that one finds a perfect natural experiment for the effect a coach has on the performance of a team. The Joerger to Walton transition is as close as one is likely to get. Vlade had assembled his young superteam to hand off to someone in his NBA family (the only hiccup being that Joerger objected to tanking the losses on his coaching record to get another piece.)
The results speak for themselves
The results speak for themselves
There are some Miami beat guys that are really high on KZ and although I can't recall anything before this preseason in terms of his film, I think his defense is absolutely NBA caliber and maybe even starting caliber. Just not many dudes that can go check LeBron/AD and then switch over onto Nunn and put him in jail too. IIRC, Brown had him on the best team USA member the whole game during worlds as well. The switchability of him (and Chima too) are very very intriguing and worth exploring as big wings that can guard 1-4.
Offensively, he moves the ball quick, looks to cut and was able to hit a few 3s across the preseason. That's where the big question is going to be; your basic level of offense has to at least be PJ Tucker/Danny Green level to be a starting caliber player. Can we get 35-37% from 3 and a few easy dunks off cuts a game? As good as Thybulle is on defense, it's really held him back from being a 30+ MPG guy in the NBA so far because he's in contention as the worst offensive player in basketball that plays minutes.
Offensively, he moves the ball quick, looks to cut and was able to hit a few 3s across the preseason. That's where the big question is going to be; your basic level of offense has to at least be PJ Tucker/Danny Green level to be a starting caliber player. Can we get 35-37% from 3 and a few easy dunks off cuts a game? As good as Thybulle is on defense, it's really held him back from being a 30+ MPG guy in the NBA so far because he's in contention as the worst offensive player in basketball that plays minutes.
From what we have seen out of him all we need is the 3 because he has the D. He can move the ball well enough and he fits. Somebody has to be the 5th option on offense and if he can at least hit 37% on 4 wide open 3s per night then you have your guy.
I really love what he brings and honestly can see him and Murray starting together on the front court together if Barnes eventually does get moved.
I really love what he brings and honestly can see him and Murray starting together on the front court together if Barnes eventually does get moved.
kb-
Wonder if you have factored the schedule in your thinking. Here is what I found in checking….
Lakers already have .5 disadvantage to Portland and Sac because they play 1 less game against the Wembayama 4.
The Kings only play the Jazz 1 time before the all-star break while the Lakers play them twice in Nov. when Conley and others will be looking to showcase their talents. Portland plays them 3 times pre all star break but one is in Jan.
Whichever team between Portland and Sac is in play-off position may have the advantage of back to back games at the end of March when the other could be in Wem mode.
Dallas to me is the most interesting as any kind of Luka tweak could quickly put them in the W sweepstakes. Kings don’t play Dallas until Feb right before the all-star break which again is an advantage Kings.
Wonder if you have factored the schedule in your thinking. Here is what I found in checking….
Lakers already have .5 disadvantage to Portland and Sac because they play 1 less game against the Wembayama 4.
The Kings only play the Jazz 1 time before the all-star break while the Lakers play them twice in Nov. when Conley and others will be looking to showcase their talents. Portland plays them 3 times pre all star break but one is in Jan.
Whichever team between Portland and Sac is in play-off position may have the advantage of back to back games at the end of March when the other could be in Wem mode.
Dallas to me is the most interesting as any kind of Luka tweak could quickly put them in the W sweepstakes. Kings don’t play Dallas until Feb right before the all-star break which again is an advantage Kings.
Naw kb is odds driven, there is a diff.
And Fox hasn't "earned the hate", criticism is fine but hate is not something he has earned, let's get that crap straight. He has always been all in as a King and you DON'T hate on that.
He has never requested a trade or made any kind of negative noise toward the team, the city, or the franchise. Get that crap straight.
If you want to criticize or critique his game then that's fine. Saying that he DESERVES to be tossed away is utter trash and one should be ashamed to say it.
This franchise has a hard enough time attracting top tier talent, to say someone who has the potential but so far hasn't shown the work ethic DESERVES to be thrown away is garbage.
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And furthermore, Fox has already attracted talent by convincing Monk to come play here. So you might want to take that in consideration, you and kb.
And Fox hasn't "earned the hate", criticism is fine but hate is not something he has earned, let's get that crap straight. He has always been all in as a King and you DON'T hate on that.
He has never requested a trade or made any kind of negative noise toward the team, the city, or the franchise. Get that crap straight.
If you want to criticize or critique his game then that's fine. Saying that he DESERVES to be tossed away is utter trash and one should be ashamed to say it.
This franchise has a hard enough time attracting top tier talent, to say someone who has the potential but so far hasn't shown the work ethic DESERVES to be thrown away is garbage.
Edit:
And furthermore, Fox has already attracted talent by convincing Monk to come play here. So you might want to take that in consideration, you and kb.
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