Keegan Murray

#91
I enjoy cold hard facts. Murray went from +1100 to +800 in betting payouts, which translates to an increase from 8.33% odds to 11.11% odds of winning the ROTY. His SL play moved the needle 2.78%. Solid, upward trend, but not exactly earth shattering. We’ll find out soon enough.

The Kings have around a +42k odds of winning the championship, which translates to you’re better off playing powerball.
Going from 8.33% to 11.11% means Murray's individual odds of winning increased by 33% based on people watching him for a handful of games.
 
#93
0. Lonely
1. Join Forum
2. Have a Forum Discussion
3. Ignore everyone who doesn't agree with you.
4. Lonely again.

Sound about right? Lol
There's people here talking like they have expertise on subjects they dont know crap about... Someone compared KM to Elton Brand on this forum...

It happens every year... the NBa fans who dont really watch college basketball all of a sudden become experts on the players involved during the summer..

Meanwhile their just parroting 2nd hand information they got from the media or youtube, didnt watch a single game of Keegan Murray at Iowa.. they are like children just looking for a response and to confirm their previous biases, they dont bring anything worthwhile to the conversation. What has influenced their opinion is easily identified.. Often, these types are bigger fans of their own opinion than the team or basketball.. They are the lonely ones, seeking feelings of being understood.. I'm here just to be a fan and root on my team and favorite players.. The whole pessimism thing is childish and stupid and for losers IMHO.

people take comfort in numbers, and this manifests itself in many absurd ways on basketball forums.... so you have this faction of people whos confidently ignorant when they have their advanced stats to back them up --- yet they will do everything possible to avoid discussing the conditions in which those stats are collected and what can affect and skew them... they dont want to talk about actual skills that players have, their moves and fakes and stuff they actually practice. They want to talk about lists, and which order they should be in. Its preposterous, its not basketball, its wanna-be intellectualism.. then conditions change and they act surprised! like wow the staff all of a sudden turned andrew wiggins into a good player after years of him being a dog.. its the machinations, being swept into the throws of the media whos job is to set expectations and then revisit them, many get swept into that undertow.. so for me I'll put those types of zombies on ignore with the quickness around here.. I'm no salesman, im not trying to convince people that im right and their wrong, ill just ignore you and keep being a fan. You wanna sit on a teams forum and preside over the negativity? Now thats loneliness.
 
Last edited:
#94
Great attempt here but correlating how the betting odds adjusted with that exact same "needle" being moved isn't apples to apples. If you're telling me KM's stock went up only by 2.78% from where it was before summer league then you're not watching the games. I think his performance was WAY better than most of us felt and how the league felt overall.

Betting odds don't always correlate with reality. First, it's based on the amount of money that is being wagered on each bet. Obviously, some smart money came in on KM which lowered the payout a bit. But do you really think the average person, outside of us crazies here in this forum, are paying attention to KM and the Kings summer league? A rookie playing for Sac greatly reduces the odds and also I think there is a TON of money coming in on Banchero and he is easily the favorite at this point. That can make some of the other long shots more of a positive expected value on that bet even though the odds are highly against him winning.

Also, +42k odds of winning the championship is nothing like playing Powerball. That $42k payout is based on a $100 bet so essentially the odds are 1 in 420. Odds of winning Powerball is 1 in roughly 290 MILLION.
You missed the sarcasm part in the powerball suggestion.

Yes, I know how betting odds work. And, yes, they’re usually more accurate than public polls mostly because they have sharps with real money moving the lines.
 
#95
Going from 8.33% to 11.11% means Murray's individual odds of winning increased by 33% based on people watching him for a handful of games.
Relatively speaking, yes. But in the play itself, it’s binary. There are no rewards or punishment or theta decay for intra-season movement. Wish there was, because I would play it. Just fade all the lotto picks. Lolzzzz.
 
#96
Kings are tied for the 2nd worst odds to win a title on DraftKings with the Spurs/OKC and ahead of the Magic/Rockets. Teams like the Pistons, Pacers, Hornets, Wizards, UTA, POR, NYK are all ahead of them.

Long-shots aren't my kind of bet, but I think the Kings by far are the best of that back-end bunch. There's none chance NYK should be +7000 or POR +7500 while the Kings are +80000. Are the Pacers 4x more likely to win a title than the Kings next season at +20000?

But yeah, you're better off buying a scratcher. Basically would take a truly insane run of injuries to that top guys for any of these back 10-13 teams to have any sort of chance.
Those bottom tier teams will get three types of plays: true believers betting small amounts, degens on a crazy hot streak dropping thousands on long shots, or sharps applying different hedging strats (Like someone betting on all 30 teams but at diff amounts—limits some of their upside n downside).
 
#97
(Lurker here.)

I just can't go all in on Murray just yet. The NBA is full of tough, mean, brutal big guys that will beat down grandma for a win. Murray is going to have to hold up to that factor. Bagley couldn't do it along with many others.

I hope nothing bad happens but, in this NBA game, it is always a possibility. Go Murray! (And take care.)
 
Last edited:
#98
Is a smart player.
Makes the right decisions quickly (usually).
Is a better shooter than everyone realized.
Does most of his damage within the flow of the offense.
Is the most ambitextrous player I've seen.
Is good at anticipating on defense.
Is the largest 6'8 player I've seen.
Has no conscience.
Is a nice guy.
 
#99
Well about the only college games that I watch are USC, UCLA and Ohio state unless it’s March madness.
For instance I liked isaiah better than Evan Mobley and also liked Bagley so thats how much I know talent. I depend on others that have a better picture than I do and in a couple of years I hope we have made the right decisions (But so far so good).
 
Well about the only college games that I watch are USC, UCLA and Ohio state unless it’s March madness.
For instance I liked isaiah better than Evan Mobley and also liked Bagley so thats how much I know talent. I depend on others that have a better picture than I do and in a couple of years I hope we have made the right decisions (But so far so good).
Sacrilege!
 
What is the crux of this conversation though? It isn't about Sacramento's championship odds. It's about Keegan Murray, his performance during summer league, and his ability to contribute next year.

The genuinely objective (cold hard) facts are pretty simple. e.g., Murray scored >20ppg in SL. He scored a variety of ways. He did some other things. Some people who wanted Ivey are good for now.

There are more subjective themes like: how will Murray fit with Sabonis and Fox? Will Murray be a guy the fans want to support? Does 'star' actually mean anything or is it just some dumb media construct that favours personality, style, and usage?

I think he's a good get. I don't like the assumed truth that he was picked ahead of the more talented Ivey for fit. I think it may have been his abilities as much as his play style and position that the front office liked. Think there is a bit of apples vs oranges that even good analysts seem to struggle with.
Then I guess we will forgive Divac for his pick of Bagley for these very same reasons..

Glad we have finally come to peace with this pick.
 
Last edited:
I think he's a good get. I don't like the assumed truth that he was picked ahead of the more talented Ivey for fit. I think it may have been his abilities as much as his play style and position that the front office liked. Think there is a bit of apples vs oranges that even good analysts seem to struggle with.
athleticism != talent.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
There's people here talking like they have expertise on subjects they dont know crap about... Someone compared KM to Elton Brand on this forum...

It happens every year... the NBa fans who dont really watch college basketball all of a sudden become experts on the players involved during the summer..

Meanwhile their just parroting 2nd hand information they got from the media or youtube, didnt watch a single game of Keegan Murray at Iowa.. they are like children just looking for a response and to confirm their previous biases, they dont bring anything worthwhile to the conversation. What has influenced their opinion is easily identified.. Often, these types are bigger fans of their own opinion than the team or basketball.. They are the lonely ones, seeking feelings of being understood.. I'm here just to be a fan and root on my team and favorite players.. The whole pessimism thing is childish and stupid and for losers IMHO.

people take comfort in numbers, and this manifests itself in many absurd ways on basketball forums.... so you have this faction of people whos confidently ignorant when they have their advanced stats to back them up --- yet they will do everything possible to avoid discussing the conditions in which those stats are collected and what can affect and skew them... they dont want to talk about actual skills that players have, their moves and fakes and stuff they actually practice. They want to talk about lists, and which order they should be in. Its preposterous, its not basketball, its wanna-be intellectualism.. then conditions change and they act surprised! like wow the staff all of a sudden turned andrew wiggins into a good player after years of him being a dog.. its the machinations, being swept into the throws of the media whos job is to set expectations and then revisit them, many get swept into that undertow.. so for me I'll put those types of zombies on ignore with the quickness around here.. I'm no salesman, im not trying to convince people that im right and their wrong, ill just ignore you and keep being a fan. You wanna sit on a teams forum and preside over the negativity? Now thats loneliness.
I agree with you totally. Obviously I watch a ton of college basketball, which can be very laborious at times. The word ugly springs to mind! But, I find myself disagreeing with the so called experts and their mock drafts all the time. I had Murray ahead of Ivey from about a third of the college season on. To my mind, it was a no contest. But that's just me and my eye test. I think a lot of mock drafts create a current that starts to pull everyone in, and if you go against that current, you look like an idiot.

When you get down to it, it's subjective! The question is, how much of your subjective opinion is actually based on what you saw, or is it based on what you've read or heard. In a court of law, that's called hearsay, and it's inadmissible. Highlight video's don't count, or at least should only count for about 25% of an opinion. When I'm judging a player, I try to look for all the things he does well, and in particular, at least one thing he does that's special. I can find the negatives later. I want to know what he can do, not what he can't do! The world is loaded with people that can't do. I do use a numerical scale of individual traits, like athleticism, ballhandling, shooting etc. I also place a huge emphasis on feel for the game, how quickly a player makes his reads and his reaction time off those reads. Court vision and how good of hands a player has. Anyway, I think you get the picture.

Point is, its a labor of love, and it's a time consuming process and much more complicated than reading a mock draft. And with all that, you can still be wrong. Usually because you can't get inside the players mind and find out how much desire he has. I've always said that 50% of success is mental. It's the difference of a hitter going up to the plate hoping he gets a hit, to a hitter going up to the plate knowing he's going to get a hit. The latter has the best chance of success. Those are the guys I'm looking for, and Murray has that trait.
 
There's people here talking like they have expertise on subjects they dont know crap about... Someone compared KM to Elton Brand on this forum...

It happens every year... the NBa fans who dont really watch college basketball all of a sudden become experts on the players involved during the summer..

Meanwhile their just parroting 2nd hand information they got from the media or youtube, didnt watch a single game of Keegan Murray at Iowa.. they are like children just looking for a response and to confirm their previous biases, they dont bring anything worthwhile to the conversation. What has influenced their opinion is easily identified.. Often, these types are bigger fans of their own opinion than the team or basketball.. They are the lonely ones, seeking feelings of being understood.. I'm here just to be a fan and root on my team and favorite players.. The whole pessimism thing is childish and stupid and for losers IMHO.

people take comfort in numbers, and this manifests itself in many absurd ways on basketball forums.... so you have this faction of people whos confidently ignorant when they have their advanced stats to back them up --- yet they will do everything possible to avoid discussing the conditions in which those stats are collected and what can affect and skew them... they dont want to talk about actual skills that players have, their moves and fakes and stuff they actually practice. They want to talk about lists, and which order they should be in. Its preposterous, its not basketball, its wanna-be intellectualism.. then conditions change and they act surprised! like wow the staff all of a sudden turned andrew wiggins into a good player after years of him being a dog.. its the machinations, being swept into the throws of the media whos job is to set expectations and then revisit them, many get swept into that undertow.. so for me I'll put those types of zombies on ignore with the quickness around here.. I'm no salesman, im not trying to convince people that im right and their wrong, ill just ignore you and keep being a fan. You wanna sit on a teams forum and preside over the negativity? Now thats loneliness.
And some people also don't realize that the college game is much different than the NBA game as well.
 
I agree with you totally. Obviously I watch a ton of college basketball, which can be very laborious at times. The word ugly springs to mind! But, I find myself disagreeing with the so called experts and their mock drafts all the time. I had Murray ahead of Ivey from about a third of the college season on. To my mind, it was a no contest. But that's just me and my eye test. I think a lot of mock drafts create a current that starts to pull everyone in, and if you go against that current, you look like an idiot.

When you get down to it, it's subjective! The question is, how much of your subjective opinion is actually based on what you saw, or is it based on what you've read or heard. In a court of law, that's called hearsay, and it's inadmissible. Highlight video's don't count, or at least should only count for about 25% of an opinion. When I'm judging a player, I try to look for all the things he does well, and in particular, at least one thing he does that's special. I can find the negatives later. I want to know what he can do, not what he can't do! The world is loaded with people that can't do. I do use a numerical scale of individual traits, like athleticism, ballhandling, shooting etc. I also place a huge emphasis on feel for the game, how quickly a player makes his reads and his reaction time off those reads. Court vision and how good of hands a player has. Anyway, I think you get the picture.

Point is, its a labor of love, and it's a time consuming process and much more complicated than reading a mock draft. And with all that, you can still be wrong. Usually because you can't get inside the players mind and find out how much desire he has. I've always said that 50% of success is mental. It's the difference of a hitter going up to the plate hoping he gets a hit, to a hitter going up to the plate knowing he's going to get a hit. The latter has the best chance of success. Those are the guys I'm looking for, and Murray has that trait.
I dont know how you weren't a scout. Maybe in a past life.
 
I'll take the more skilled player most every time, over the faster higher jump player. Murray has more skill and basketball IQ than Ivey.

It was an intelligent pick
I agree. On top of that, were we supposed to ask Fox, Ivey, and Sabonis to score at the basket? I don't understand how we could have possibly paired Fox and Ivey together. Murray, on the other hand, fits like a glove.
 
I agree with you totally. Obviously I watch a ton of college basketball, which can be very laborious at times. The word ugly springs to mind! But, I find myself disagreeing with the so called experts and their mock drafts all the time. I had Murray ahead of Ivey from about a third of the college season on. To my mind, it was a no contest. But that's just me and my eye test. I think a lot of mock drafts create a current that starts to pull everyone in, and if you go against that current, you look like an idiot.

When you get down to it, it's subjective! The question is, how much of your subjective opinion is actually based on what you saw, or is it based on what you've read or heard. In a court of law, that's called hearsay, and it's inadmissible. Highlight video's don't count, or at least should only count for about 25% of an opinion. When I'm judging a player, I try to look for all the things he does well, and in particular, at least one thing he does that's special. I can find the negatives later. I want to know what he can do, not what he can't do! The world is loaded with people that can't do. I do use a numerical scale of individual traits, like athleticism, ballhandling, shooting etc. I also place a huge emphasis on feel for the game, how quickly a player makes his reads and his reaction time off those reads. Court vision and how good of hands a player has. Anyway, I think you get the picture.

Point is, its a labor of love, and it's a time consuming process and much more complicated than reading a mock draft. And with all that, you can still be wrong. Usually because you can't get inside the players mind and find out how much desire he has. I've always said that 50% of success is mental. It's the difference of a hitter going up to the plate hoping he gets a hit, to a hitter going up to the plate knowing he's going to get a hit. The latter has the best chance of success. Those are the guys I'm looking for, and Murray has that trait.
Quoting for no other reason than for others to possibly read what your wrote again. ;)
 
I agree. On top of that, were we supposed to ask Fox, Ivey, and Sabonis to score at the basket? I don't understand how we could have possibly paired Fox and Ivey together. Murray, on the other hand, fits like a glove.
Even just wanting the Kings to draft Ivey is to set the team back 3 years at minimum, you have to reset EVERYTHING and try to build around Ivey, trade Fox, and convince Sabonis not to walk.

I'll never understand why people even wanted Ivey in the first place. He is probably going to be a fantastic player, Murray is definitely going to be a fantastic player. And Murray doesn't set your team back 3+ years, he aligns with what you're doing.

It wasn't a pick for fit, it was a pick that fit.
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
If the draft could be redone tomorrow, what does the Top 5 look like?

I'm thinking:

#1: Banchero
#2: Holmgren
#3: Murray
#4: Ivey
#5: Mathurin

So, really just Smith out, Mathurin in, and Murray moving up a spot.
Maybe. Jabari looked about how I expected in Summer League - aggressive and switchable on defense and a bit of an afterthought on offense since self-creation isn't a strength of his at this point and Summer League games don't have the offensive structure to consistently get him good looks.

I was surprised that he shot it poorly but again, I want to see how he does at the NBA level for a full season before making any real judgement.

I do think the Kings would have been a better fit for him than the Rockets, at least for his rookie season since he would have been a great fit as a floor spacer and wouldn't have had to do too much with Fox and Sabonis controlling the offense.
 
Even just wanting the Kings to draft Ivey is to set the team back 3 years at minimum, you have to reset EVERYTHING and try to build around Ivey, trade Fox, and convince Sabonis not to walk.

I'll never understand why people even wanted Ivey in the first place. He is probably going to be a fantastic player, Murray is definitely going to be a fantastic player. And Murray doesn't set your team back 3+ years, he aligns with what you're doing.

It wasn't a pick for fit, it was a pick that fit.
I domt understand how adding another potential allstar sets any team back. That's crazy logic. Ivey doesn't just drive to the basket he shoots a nice 3 as well. He also has much needed playmaker skills we sorely lack on this team. Let's stop this narrative it's rediculous.

We have Murray and that's that but let's not act like he was the only selection that would make the team better. Any coach worth a dam could make those two fit
 

SLAB

Hall of Famer
I domt understand how adding another potential allstar sets any team back. That's crazy logic. Ivey doesn't just drive to the basket he shoots a nice 3 as well. He also has much needed playmaker skills we sorely lack on this team. Let's stop this narrative it's rediculous.

We have Murray and that's that but let's not act like he was the only selection that would make the team better. Any coach worth a dam could make those two fit
Even watching the game and a quarter he played, he showed a little more as a playmaker than some were yelling he couldn’t do. Yeah, just summer league and an absolutely tiny minuscule sample size but a lot of folks were pretty steadfast on him being a subpar playmaker.

Like you said, we have Murray and the praise can go both ways. He did a helluva lot more than I thought he could too.
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
Even watching the game and a quarter he played, he showed a little more as a playmaker than some were yelling he couldn’t do. Yeah, just summer league and an absolutely tiny minuscule sample size but a lot of folks were pretty steadfast on him being a subpar playmaker.

Like you said, we have Murray and the praise can go both ways. He did a helluva lot more than I thought he could too.
I think anyone who watched Ivey at Purdue knew he was a very good secondary playmaker. I think the question was whether he could be a full time point guard. I don't think he should be used that way, but that's part of what makes Detroit a much better fit for him than the Kings. He pairs with Cunningham and the rest of the Detroit core much better than he would with Fox & Sabonis IMO.
 
Any coach worth a dam could make those two fit
my biggest thing regarding fit which I brought up in pre draft discussions is there are very few historically successful backcourts that feature two primary scorers. That’s especially true if both have questionable 3 point shooting. The only really elite tandem is Dame and CJ and one could argue CJ looks better now that he is is not paired with Lilllard. I fully expect Ivey to be a good maybe even great player and I think he landed in a good spot out in Detroit.
 
I domt understand how adding another potential allstar sets any team back. That's crazy logic. Ivey doesn't just drive to the basket he shoots a nice 3 as well. He also has much needed playmaker skills we sorely lack on this team. Let's stop this narrative it's rediculous.

We have Murray and that's that but let's not act like he was the only selection that would make the team better. Any coach worth a dam could make those two fit
There is only 1 ball. Ask Westbrook and the Lakers how multiple ball dominant players work together.

There are probably 5x as many examples of this failing than it working, and thats probably being generous. I'll just leave it at that.

Mathurin and Daniels and Eason would have been better picks for Sac than Ivey, but you would need a trade down package for either of those to make any sense.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
The TS% of 65% is what excites me - very efficient for a 20+ scorer. He could be a 3rd option next year, which I would view as a big win for the Kings. I like the fact that he's not coming into a team bereft of talent, which would put pressure on him to be the savior. He should be able to play his game and slowly but surely improve, while not having to do too much. I don't want to see him lose minutes to Barnes. I continue to hope that Barnes will be traded for a legit 3 so that Murray can comfortably take that stretch 4 position with +/- 30 minutes per game. The question that I'm curious about is whether Brown will play him at the center position against smaller lineups, the Warriors for example.