Looking to the year ahead.

[hrdboild]

i might be willing to take that bet

Who said anything about a bet? I don't enjoy gambling on any level, but if you want to shake on it and see who gets to say "I told you so" in a year that's cool . Also... I just quit my job to write full-time and inflation is at it's highest rate in 40 years so I couldn't afford to bet anything even if I wanted to.

 

[sactowndog]

If the whole team is bad on defense, that's a scheme/coaching issue. Barnes defensive rating didn't go over 110 until he left the Warriors. It took another massive dive when he got to the Kings.

Can't point to any one individual player and say he ruined the defense. It's a team issue. From the coach all the way down.

I fully expect a change in the defense from everyone with Mike Brown as coach.

it can be a GM issue if he has the wrong players on the roster.

 

[sactowndog]

Who said anything about a bet? I don't enjoy gambling on any level, but if you want to shake on it and see who gets to say "I told you so" in a year that's cool . Also... I just quit my job to write full-time and inflation is at it's highest rate in 40 years so I couldn't afford to bet anything even if I wanted to.

good luck to you. What kind of writing do you do?

 

[Padrino]

Honestly, im of the opinion that you give this squad 40 games. Then, if you are not in a spot to legit compete for a top 8, you blow it up. Legit blow it up. Sell Fox, Sabonis, Barnes, and Holmes for developing young players with up side, along with as many first rounders as possible. Follow the Ainge model. He blew up the celtics as their championship core was aging, and missed the playlffs the following year with 28 wins. The 2nd year his brand new young buck celtics squad won 40 games (40/42) and was back in the playoffs. That is different than the "process" in Philly because the didnt have the beavy of FRP crunched into 3 drafts, that Boston got, so it took longer. I trust Monte in 1 area so far. He drafts well. Hali, Mitchell and Murray are all studs. Despite murray getting beat by faster players (bigs tend to have that issue but if there is a player after mitchell on this squad that will work his ass off to fix it, its murray). But if they arent in legit 7/8 range by game 40, blow it up and keep Murray, Mitchell and possibly Huerter and start the rest over (not that huerter will be untouchable, but at 14M/yr, will be harder to move) .

While I can appreciate the sentiment, as I and many fans believed the Kings would be best served pursuing a full-scale rebuild, it's a bit of a fantasy to imagine that Monte would blow the whole thing up after 40 games. He's probably going to give Mike Brown and his staff the season to install their system, coax buy-in from the roster, and execute the game plan to the best of their ability. These things can take time. And if the Kings were to fall short of a playoff berth this season, Monte would surely attempt to make roster adjustments heading into '23-'24, with the urgency of Sabonis' contract year forcing his hand. At that point, I'd expect a mid-season sell-off if things head south, but it likely won't be happening until the 2024 trade deadline at the earliest.

 

[sactowndog]

Looking at the Roster.

Center:
Sabonis, Holmes, Len
Murray, Lyles, Metu, Vezenkov
Barnes
Huerter, Monk, Davis
Fox, Mitchell

doesn’t it seem we have to bring back Josh Jackson with Harkless and Holiday gone?

 

[hrdboild]

good luck to you. What kind of writing do you do?

Thanks! I'm sure I'll post about it in the lounge when things get further along, but I'm starting on a book. It's primarily going to be about the history of nomadic cultures in North America and some of my own observations and theories about sustainable living and the ways in which modern development has increasingly put human society in conflict with the environment.

 

[kingsboi]

Who said anything about a bet? I don't enjoy gambling on any level, but if you want to shake on it and see who gets to say "I told you so" in a year that's cool . Also... I just quit my job to write full-time and inflation is at it's highest rate in 40 years so I couldn't afford to bet anything even if I wanted to.

I wish you great success in your entrepreneurial pursuits

 

[serbiangoat]

Unless the team has similar chemistry to what the pre Barnes trade team had it's another 33-38 win season imo. The Kings have talent and shooting but I don't really see a player other than Sabonis who can elevate other players and even he can't do it at a really high level as shown in Indiana with more talent.

 

[Kings49ers]

I am well aware of our defense last year. Yes we could be worse this year. No Lamb, Harkless, Holiday or Jones. Worse is a distinct possibility. I actually hope we resign Josh Jackson because he can play some defense.

I’m sorry my man but none of those players you listed are good, Harkless and Holiday are old and not near the athletes they guarded and Lamb and Jones are nothing special. If our defense gets worse it’s not because we lost them, it’s because once again our scheme has failed.

 

[Kings49ers]

While I can appreciate the sentiment, as I and many fans believed the Kings would be best served pursuing a full-scale rebuild, it's a bit of a fantasy to imagine that Monte would blow the whole thing up after 40 games. He's probably going to give Mike Brown and his staff the season to install their system, coax buy-in from the roster, and execute the game plan to the best of their ability. These things can take time. And if the Kings were to fall short of a playoff berth this season, Monte would surely attempt to make roster adjustments heading into '23-'24, with the urgency of Sabonis' contract year forcing his hand. At that point, I'd expect a mid-season sell-off if things head south, but it likely won't be happening until the 2024 trade deadline at the earliest.

To me this has always somewhat been the timeline we were looking at. I’ll even add Vivek to the equation of why the kings were never going to tear it all down completely. But I agree with your timeline, this year is a building year, next year add a missing piece or two, likely someone to protect the paint and a stopper on the wing. The only two pieces I can see being moved in season this year are Holmes and Barnes. This team was never going to be completely fixed in one offseason, not with so few resources at our disposal.

 

[ESP47]

I mean, if defensive ratings from last season are the only criteria we're going off of, Jerami and Kings Tristan Thompson are equivalent defenders sooooo

That stat is only usable if you're comparing players on the same team. It's useless to compare players from different teams using O and DRTG.

 

[Tetsujin]

That stat is only usable if you're comparing players on the same team. It's useless to compare players from different teams using O and DRTG.

For the record, I was misusing that stat in the same way certain other posters were.

the good old eye test, stats, and pretty much every single pundit are at a consensus that Grant’s defense has fallen off since going to Detroit. Now if you think that that’s simply a product of him having to bear a bigger offensive load these last couple of years, that’s fine but pretending that he’s still clearly one of the best defenders in the league is just a bad faith argument.

 

[whozit]

Who said anything about a bet? I don't enjoy gambling on any level, but if you want to shake on it and see who gets to say "I told you so" in a year that's cool . Also... I just quit my job to write full-time and inflation is at it's highest rate in 40 years so I couldn't afford to bet anything even if I wanted to.

Wife writes freelance for a small publication. Gets paid accordingly. But it's her hobby.

Good luck in your endeavors. Great to follow your "dreams."

 

[ESP47]

For the record, I was misusing that stat in the same way certain other posters were.

the good old eye test, stats, and pretty much every single pundit are at a consensus that Grant’s defense has fallen off since going to Detroit. Now if you think that that’s simply a product of him having to bear a bigger offensive load these last couple of years, that’s fine but pretending that he’s still clearly one of the best defenders in the league is just a bad faith argument.

Yeah I can't comment on his defense in DET since I don't subject myself to watching DET unless they're playing the Kings. He used to look like a pretty solid defender. If he's lost a step, it wouldn't be surprising. It also wouldn't be surprising if his defense picked up if he went to a better team as well. Hard to tell. I mean look at Harkless. You'd think he was 35 and finally lost a step but the dude seemed to fall off a cliff at 27.

 

[The_Jamal]

Murray looks good on offense but has suffered multiple blow by’s on defense. For next year he is likely to be below average.

not a single Kings player on the defensive dashboard hold opponents below their average in scoring. Sabonis is the only one below a positive 1.5. It’s hard to fathom how bad on defense this team could be.

Uhh, what are you watching on Defense? Murray has not been bad in the slightest on D?

 

[joemama]

I think we have to retun back to the age-old question . . .can he play sf?

With 14 roster players (12 & both 2-way) we have Barnes as the only player listed as a sf. Yes, players can move up or down, but we need some sfs. Also, I hate seeing Josh Jackson and Lamb talk.

Looking at the available sf free agents is very underwhelming. We can sign a 38 y/o Iguadala (yay).

We have the bi-annual at $4.1 and a trade exemption of $4.0. I hope Monte has a trade in mind. Maybe a sign (using an exemption listed above) and trade?

 

[Insomniacal Fan]

Without considering the rest of the west, only considering where our team was at the beginning of last season

Speculative starters
Fox =
Haliburton -> Monk -
Mo Harkless -> Murray ?+
Barnes =
Holmes -> Sabonis +

Bench
Buddy -> Huerter -
Mitchell =
Holmes =-


Better shooting from starting lineup
Worse defensive track record
Better coach?

I'm not anticipating a 2018 style emergence, that required a precise alignment of the game plan with the talent available on the team. Requires flexibility from the coach, and a reputation for holding team members accountable is not something I would associate with doctrinal flexibility.

I suspect we're in the 35-40 wins range

 

[Telemachus]

Looking at the Roster.

Center:
Sabonis, Holmes, Len
Murray, Lyles, Metu, Vezenkov
Barnes
Huerter, Monk, Davis
Fox, Mitchell

doesn’t it seem we have to bring back Josh Jackson with Harkless and Holiday gone?

No! He is simply not a very good player. Unfortunately, he still tries to play as though he is a star player.

 

[joemama]

No! He is simply not a very good player. Unfortunately, he still tries to play as though he is a star player.

THIS^
Josh Jackson should be the LAST resort. When ALL other options are exhausted, and even then . . .

 

[funkykingston]

Without considering the rest of the west, only considering where our team was at the beginning of last season

Speculative starters
Fox =
Haliburton -> Monk -
Mo Harkless -> Murray ?+
Barnes =
Holmes -> Sabonis +

Bench
Buddy -> Huerter -
Mitchell =
Holmes =-


Better shooting from starting lineup
Worse defensive track record
Better coach?

I'm not anticipating a 2018 style emergence, that required a precise alignment of the game plan with the talent available on the team. Requires flexibility from the coach, and a reputation for holding team members accountable is not something I would associate with doctrinal flexibility.

I suspect we're in the 35-40 wins range

I'd be really surprised if Huerter isn't the starter at SG.

And do you have Buddy Hield as a better player than Huerter? And Holmes off the bench as a minus? I don't understand either of those at all. Not to mention it's entirely reasonable to expect Mitchell to be a better player in year 2.

The nine man rotation is likely:

Sabonis
Murray
Barnes
Huerter
Fox

Mitchell
Holmes
Monk
and then either Davis or Lyles

 

[sactowndog]

Thanks! I'm sure I'll post about it in the lounge when things get further along, but I'm starting on a book. It's primarily going to be about the history of nomadic cultures in North America and some of my own observations and theories about sustainable living and the ways in which modern development has increasingly put human society in conflict with the environment.

Interesting let us know when it’s done

 

[twslam07]

So he got 2/3 of the guys you would have drafted without trades available. Plus a guy name Sasha who all was Euro.

He chose not to resign Donte. But did sign Malik Monk. And he traded a future, protected pick for Huerter.

It doesn't seem that far from what you would have liked.

Yeah I wasn't all that unhappy with the draft. It was what he did in FA & trades which started to concern me in regards to the direction he was taking this team. I wouldn't have targeted players like Monk & Huerter considering our defense has been in the gutter for the past 16 seasons and was 27th last year (29th before DiVincenzo came aboard) and our shooting issues were largely at the PF position (and PG since Fox & Mitchell are not very good shooters). Here is the the breakdown of 3P% by position last year:


And here is the breakdown of C&S 3P% by position last year:


Considering it's going to be difficult to improve our 3P% from the PG & C spot with Fox & Sabonis logging 34+ min a night, the big opportunity to improve our 3P% is at PF. Murray & Lyles should be a solid improvement for us over Bagley, Metu, Harkless, etc. to really help bring that 3P% up. Just improving that PF 3P% to levels that are similar to SG & SF would bring our team 3P% to an average level.

Addressing shooting at PF was important (Murray, Lyles), but adding more shooting at SG/SF vs. addressing the defensive end is what I disagree with.

 

[ESP47]

Uhh, what are you watching on Defense? Murray has not been bad in the slightest on D?

I'm still on the fence about his defense. He has plays where he looks really good and then he has plays where it looks like his feet are cemented into the floor. I saw the same thing at Iowa as well. It's kind of strange. I don't know if it's his reaction time or his lateral quickness but he can be very inconsistent from play to play and it's not like he's not engaged like some other inconsistent defenders.

Curious to see how he handles PFs in the NBA. The league has a mixed bag of guys at the position and I have a feeling he'll struggle against the quicker ones and when he's switched onto many SFs. Hopefully in SL we can see him matched up against some stronger players as well to see how he potentially does against the Randle/Gordon/Collins types. I think he'll be a bit better at guarding those types of players while guys like Tatum will leave him standing still.

 

[The_Jamal]

I'm still on the fence about his defense. He has plays where he looks really good and then he has plays where it looks like his feet are cemented into the floor. I saw the same thing at Iowa as well. It's kind of strange. I don't know if it's his reaction time or his lateral quickness but he can be very inconsistent from play to play and it's not like he's not engaged like some other inconsistent defenders.

Curious to see how he handles PFs in the NBA. The league has a mixed bag of guys at the position and I have a feeling he'll struggle against the quicker ones and when he's switched onto many SFs. Hopefully in SL we can see him matched up against some stronger players as well to see how he potentially does against the Randle/Gordon/Collins types. I think he'll be a bit better at guarding those types of players while guys like Tatum will leave him standing still.

Yeah don't disagree. I just thought overall, he was a positive on the defensive end in the Cali Classic and had some really good stops/contests when matched up on a wing on the perimeter. Seems like when he got his feet set, he was able to stick with anyone. When his feet got wonky, he lost his man.

I think he's better suited to start on NBA 4's during the regular season, but to say he was bad on defense during the Cali Classic is just wrong.

 

[twslam07]

I'd be really surprised if Huerter isn't the starter at SG.

And do you have Buddy Hield as a better player than Huerter? And Holmes off the bench as a minus? I don't understand either of those at all. Not to mention it's entirely reasonable to expect Mitchell to be a better player in year 2.

The nine man rotation is likely:

Sabonis
Murray
Barnes
Huerter
Fox

Mitchell
Holmes
Monk
and then either Davis or Lyles

Agreed. I'd have Huerter starting at SG and Murray checking PFs. Huerter is not some great defender, but he's better than Monk. Monk also has a better knack for scoring which may be more welcomed in the bench unit. I see a minutes rotation being something like...

PG - Fox (34 min) / Mitchell (14 min)
SG - Huerter (10 min) / Monk (26 min) / Mitchell (12 min)
SF - Barnes (14 min) / Huerter (18 min) / Davis (16 min)
PF - Murray (28 min) / Barnes (20 min)
C - Sabonis (34 min) / Holmes (14 min)

Fox = 34 min
Barnes = 34 min
Sabonis = 34 min
Huerter = 28 min
Murray = 28 min
Mitchell = 26 min
Monk = 26 min
Davis = 16 min
Holmes = 14 min

Maybe take some minutes away from Davis & give them to Lyles or Holmes depending on matchups.

 

[Rain man]

Agreed. I'd have Huerter starting at SG and Murray checking PFs. Huerter is not some great defender, but he's better than Monk. Monk also has a better knack for scoring which may be more welcomed in the bench unit. I see a minutes rotation being something like...

PG - Fox (34 min) / Mitchell (14 min)
SG - Huerter (10 min) / Monk (26 min) / Mitchell (12 min)
SF - Barnes (14 min) / Huerter (18 min) / Davis (16 min)
PF - Murray (28 min) / Barnes (20 min)
C - Sabonis (34 min) / Holmes (14 min)

Fox = 34 min
Barnes = 34 min
Sabonis = 34 min
Huerter = 28 min
Murray = 28 min
Mitchell = 26 min
Monk = 26 min
Davis = 16 min
Holmes = 14 min

agree with this almost exactly, except I think the Davis minutes ultimately go to Sasha. Sasha would play the backup 4, pushing most of Barnes minutes to 3. But otherwise I agree with this breakdown completely.

Maybe take some minutes away from Davis & give them to Lyles or Holmes depending on matchups.

 

[sactowndog]

Uhh, what are you watching on Defense? Murray has not been bad in the slightest on D?

The same thing as the athletic film review which said the same thing.

 

[sactowndog]

That stat is only usable if you're comparing players on the same team. It's useless to compare players from different teams using O and DRTG.

its why I first posted the deviation from a players norm and then added defensive rating. Neither were very good. And yes scheme can help but it’s still tough if none of your guys can stay in front of their guy.

 

[macadocious]

right now trade fodder will be

Barnes
Holmes
TD
Lyles

in that order

 

[gunks]

Lost in all of this conversation is the synergy between Brown and McNair.

I don't think any of these moves were made without Coach Brown's input, so perhaps he's being a bit overconfident on how much defense he can get this team to play, but he's known to have all kinds of tricks up his sleeve when it comes to schemes. That's kind of his MO.

So while we're all arguing on how bad all the individual defenders are on this team (and yes, they are bad), I think it would be wise to consider BBIQ of the players McNair brought in as part of the equation. Smarter players are going to learn and execute defensive schemes faster, and McNair has been targeting smart guys all summer.

All the shooting is going to unlock the offense in a major way. Like, we could see career years from both Fox and Sabonis. If the defense can just get up to middling we have a chance to break the post season drought.