I'd like to preface this by saying that I expect there will be trades on draft day, but I'm doing the mock with the assumption that no trades will happen and everyone will draft in the expected order. I'm also drafting who I think is the best player for that team which may not be the overall consensus. But might be!
1. Magic - Jabari Smith Jr.: PF, 6'10", 220 Lb's, 7'1" wingspan, Freshman, Auburn.
28.8 mpg - 16.9 ppg - 42.9% fgp - 42.0% 3pp - 79.9% ftp - 7.4 rpg - 2.0 apg - 1.1 stl's - 1.9 to's - 1.0 blk's - ORtg 116.5 - DRtg 90.7.
Personally, if I had the 1st pick in the draft I would select Chet Holmgren, but it would be a close decision. Smith is one of the players that I think would be a perfect fit on the Kings, he along with Holmgren and Murray. I really like Smith, but, and there's always a but, he has some areas of his game he needs to improve. Now some of the things that bothered me may have to do with the system he was playing in, and his surrounding teammates. Other than Kessler, the center, there wasn't another player on that Auburn team that was worth mentioning, other than mentioning how bad they were.
As a scout said, Smith was playing with two guards that thought they were Curry and Thompson, and took as many shots as that duo. There were many games when each of the guards individually had more shot attempts than Smith and Kessler combined. Enough said! Smith played out on the perimeter far more than I would have liked, and I think that, along with Kessler being a rebounding machine, it distorted how good a rebounder Smith can be. In that same vein, I don't think we saw how good a shotblocker Smith can be with Kessler roaming the paint and blocking an incredible 4.6 shots a game. Smith basically played like a wing, and he was extremely effective doing so, hitting 42% of his threes, many with a hand in his face. He was one of the best shooters in college basketball last season.
He gets great lift on him jump shot, and has a very high release making it almost impossible to block. Defensively there's a lot to like! I think he did a great job defending the three through five positions. He struggled a bit with some of the two's, and really struggled when guarding the quick PG's. I think some of that is correctable. He has a very wide defensive stance, which I think hurts him when trying to move laterally. But all in all, he has the look of a plus defender. He has to improve his ball handling and shot creation off the dribble, and the two of them go together. When you look at Smith's numbers, those numbers become more surprising when you watch him play, and see that he was doubled and at times triple teamed by the other team. He's certainly worthy of the first pick in the draft.
2. Thunder - Chet Holmgren: C/PF, 7'0", 195 Lb's, 7'5" wingspan, Freshman, Gonzaga.
26.9 mpg - 14.1 ppg - 60.7% fgp - 39.0% 3pp - 71.6% ftp - 9.9 rpg - 1.9 apg - 1.9 to's - 0.8 stl's - 3.7 blk's - ORtg 127.0 - DRtg 78.7.
There's only one thing that scares me about Holmgren, and it's no surprise to anyone. His overall weight and strength. I'm sure he'll be able to add to that and get stronger, but I do think he's a little more limited, due to his narrow frame, than the average thin man that enters the NBA. However, Durant couldn't do one bench press at the required weight at the combine, and he's still out there kicking and he's not too bad either. Giannis Antetokounmpo was as skinny as a rail when he entered the NBA. So was Tyson Chandler. So there's hope in that area. Personally, I think Chet has the best chance in this draft of becoming a superstar. He does so many things well for a 7 footer, that he's deserving of the moniker, Unicorn!
Meaning basically, one of a kind! And he is that. He's a natural shot blocker and simply because you can bully him to the basket, it doesn't mean he won't still block your shot. He has great instincts around the basket both defensively and offensively. Despite his slender frame, he's a very good rebounder. Holmgren plays with an edge and he doesn't back down from anyone, which to some extent is scary. Chet is a good three point shooter hitting 39% of his shots from beyond the arc. I wish he had taken more of them, but he spent almost half the season without being a part of the offense. He just sort of roamed around and took advantage of whatever presented itself. Similar to Keegan Murray.
You always had the feeling when watching him play that he was capable of far more than they were asking him to do. He played on the perimeter a lot because of Drew Timme being shackled in the post. He's a very good ballhandler for his size, many times grabbing a rebound and going end to end for a dunk. He's a potential three level scorer at the next level. When you add that to his defensive potential, you just might have a star on your hands. We got an occasional glimpse of his passing ability from time to time, and he appears to be someone you could possibly run the offense through. All in all, he's a very unique player, especially at his size. I saw someone comp him with Poko, which is laughable. He'd be a great fit on the Kings, but unless the Kings trade up, there's no chance.
3. Rockets - Paolo Banchero: PF, 6'10", 250 Lb's, Wingspan NA, Freshman, Duke.
33.0 mpg - 17.2 ppg - 47.8% fgp - 33.8% 3pp - 72.9% ftp - 7.8 rpg - 3.2 apg - 2.4 to's - 1.1 stl's - 0.9 blk's - ORtg 113.8 - DRtg 98.1.
I struggled with this one and almost had a different player here, but I decided that I'd go with the likely consensus. I'm not as sold on Banchero as everyone else. Don't mistake me, I think Banchero is going to be a very good basketball player. I just don't think he's the third best player in this draft. However, there's a lot to like, especially offensively. He's very polished especially in the post, where he displays excellent footwork and touch around the basket. He likes to play a little bully ball at times and he uses his size and strength to punish smaller, weaker players down low. I'm not sure he'll be as effective in the NBA, but I'm sure some of it will translate. He's a smart player and has a good feel for the game.
Some have considered him a three level scorer at the next level. Maybe in the future, but I'm not convinced he has a consistent 3 pt shot. He shot it well in the tournament but I have to see it over a period of time. He has an excellent midrange game with a variety of moves to get his shot. I think his handles are fine for a 6'10" PF especially the way he uses his body to create space. What probably sets him apart from the others is his passing ability. He's a player you can run the offense through. He see's the floor well and has a great feel for the game. Ironically, the player he sort of reminded me of was Sabonis. Yeah, I know, Sabonis is a better rebounder, and definitely a better defender. At least right now.
Which brings us to defense. This is where I tend to struggle with Banchero. He's similar to Sabonis in that he's not a bad defender at the basket. He holds position well and moves his feet well. But he's not a shot blocker and probably needs to play along side a rim running shot blocker, like he did at Duke with Williams. Mark Williams was the perfect running mate for Banchero. Williams was one of the best rim protectors in college last season. He had Banchero's back, and also benefited from Banchero's passes. While I love Banchero's passing, he does need to reduce his turnovers. He basically had a 3 to 2 ratio which isn't that good. My final note is on rebounding. I think rebounding is one of the skills that translates to the NBA, and to be honest, I was a little disappointed in Banchero's rebounding. One would think that a 6'10" 250 Lb player would grab more boards. Smith who played fewer minutes, and played away from the basket grabbed almost the exact same amount of boards, and Murray out rebounded him.
Out of the gate, I expect Banchero to be very effective and maybe be in the running for ROY. But three years from now, I can think of several players that might have passed him by. Doesn't mean your not getting a good player that will help your team. But I think the best case scenario is for Banchero to go to a team with a good defensive center to help cover for his defensive weaknesses.
4. Kings - Keegan Murray: PF/SF, 6'8", 225 Lb's, 6'11" wingspan, Sophomore, Iowa.
31.9 mpg - 23.5 ppg - 55.5% fgp - 39.8% 3pp - 74.7% ftp - 8.7 rpg - 1.5 apg - 1.1 to's - 1.9 blk's - 1.3 stl's - ORtg 134.6 - DRtg 96.8.
On paper last season, Murray was the best player in college basketball. Of course when you watch a player play, the whole exercise becomes more subjective. You see the results, and then ask yourself, how much better can he become. That seems to be the stumbling point for Murray, and I'm not sure why. As I pointed out in another thread, Murray isn't flashy. He isn't demonstrative on the court. No flexing of his muscles or primal screams after a vicious dunk. He just heads back down the floor to play defense. On the other hand, a player like Ivey is very flashy and as a result, fun to watch. But being fun to watch doesn't always equal wins. Murray is one of those players that quietly goes about his business. He does all the dirty work and fills the holes that need filling.
He had one of the highest usage rates in college, yet never looked like a black hole or a ball stopper. James Ham pointed out his usage rate and the lack of assists for a player with that high a rate. But he failed to point out that he barely turned the ball over (1.1 times a game) for a player with such a high rate. I wonder if it ever occurred to Ham that maybe Murray didn't have anyone to pass the ball to who could score, other than maybe his twin brother, who wasn't on the floor at the same time that often. Iowa hardly ever ran plays for Murray and let him be opportunistic. Once in a while they would run a pin down or set a screen for him, but more often than not he got his points by flying in for an offensive rebound and dunk, or in transition, where he was excellent at running the floor.
Murray is a smart player who takes advantage of his defender when he tries to ball watch. He's always sliding to the open spot on the floor where he shot over 40% on catch and shoots. Off the dribble, he's not nearly as good, and that's an aspect of his game he needs to work on. But overall he shot just a tick below 40% from three at 39.8%. Another area of his game that needs to improve is in the midrange. He actually has a nice step back jumper, but he simply didn't use it that much. His handles are fine, but to move to the next level he needs to be better at creating his own shot off the dribble, and improving his handles will help in that regard.
Defensively, he's very good. He was better his Freshman year where I believe he made 2nd all team defense in the Big Ten Conference. But all Iowa asked Murray to do his Freshman year was rebound and defend. This past season, probably because he was carrying almost all the offensive load, they cut back a bit on his defensive responsibilities. But he was still a good defender. He's excellent at keeping his man in front of him, and his off the ball defense is equally good. Murray blocked 1.9 shots mostly as a help defender. Anyone that followed him this season knows he a master at deflections and saving balls from going out of bounds. Lastly, Murray has terrific hands. He catches everything he can get his hands on. Some of his catches this past season were amazing. Some right at the basket at full sprint where he caught and made the basket from a seemingly impossible position.
Which brings me to one more thing. Murray is an excellent post up player, which is a dying art to some extent. He was in the 99 percentile at finishing at the basket in all of college basketball. If you like stats, Murray was 2nd in player efficiency rating for the last 13 years with only Zion Williamson ahead of him. He was 3rd in win shares behind only Williamson and Brandon Clark. There's more that I could bore you with, but I'll leave it at that. Murray is the perfect fit for the Kings. he checks all the boxes. He also fits the type of culture the Kings are trying to build. He's a high character player, and is known to be a Gym rat and a hard worker. Everyone wants a star! How many stars did Memphis have this year? They won because of a system and a team culture. Even when Morant missed games, they kept winning.
5. Pistons - Jaden Ivey: SG/PG, 6'4", 200 Lb's, 6'9" wingspan, Sophomore, Purdue.
31.4 mpg - 17.3 ppg - 46.0% fgp - 35.8% 3pp - 74.4% ftp - 4.9 rpg - 3.1 apg - 2.6 to's - 0.9 stl's - 0.6 blk's - ORtg 114.7 - DRtg 102.5.
Ivey is probably the fastest player in the draft. He's been compared to Westbrook, Wall, Ja Morant, probably because of his hair style, and also Fox. I would say that he's a better 3 pt shooter than Wall, Westbrook, and Fox at the same point in their careers. But none of those four scare you to death from the perimeter. Actually, Ivey shot the ball better in the first half of the season and then sort of tapered off in the 2nd half. Sort of the opposite of Murray whose shot got better as the season went on, and the volume when up. However, Ivey made a huge jump from his Freshman year to his Sophomore year, which if your a scout, is what your looking for. In the open court with a full head of steam, Ivey is almost unstoppable. He seems to be able to blow through cracks to get to the basket, and he likes to Eurostep while going a thousand miles an hour.
While his shot tapered off in the second half, I thought he looked like he was running out of gas at times, and that his legs were gone. Many of his shots came up short, usually a sign of tired legs, and when you consider that Ivey's main skill, is his speed, which he uses considerably, it's not hard to believe his tank was leaning toward empty near the end of the year. I felt the same way about Johnny Davis and to some extent Keegan Murray. All three of those players had a very high usage rate and carried most of the offense for their team. Ivey was the main offense for Purdue. He got a little help from his giant center Zach Idey, who will never set foot in an NBA game, and his backup center Trevion Williams, a terrific passer and a decent post player. Wouldn't mind him with a 2nd rd pick. Point is, Ivey was the offense, and when he had a bad game, they usually lost.
I still believe in Ivey's 3 pt shot. His form is good, so it's not broken. Ivey is a very good finisher, and all his points were scored either at the basket, or from behind the 3 pt line. He has no midrange game. No floater or pull up fade away from 15 feet. Nada! Nothing! Obviously something he'll need to work on in the NBA. Very difficult in today's NBA at the guard position to be successful without a keep you honest midrange shot. Right now if Ivey puts the ball on the floor inside the 3 pt line you pretty much know where he's going. Makes him a lot easier to defend.
So, speaking of defense. I have to admit that I was disappointed in Ivey's defense. Everyone says he has all the tools to be a good defender, and I agree! But talk is cheap. There were periods of games where Ivey made little to no effort on defense. Many times he defended in an almost upright position with his hands down by his side. There were times when he was beat off the dribble and he didn't pursue, or did so halfheartedly. He loves to play the passing lanes for steals, and he's pretty good at it, but you have to do more than that. At times his off ball defense was atrocious. He'd ball watch and had no idea where his man was. Luckily for him, he got away with at times, but that won't happen in the NBA. I would call his defense off the ball a tick better than Buddy Hields.
Having said all that, he has all the physical tools to be a good defender, and one would hope that once in the NBA, with good coaches and all the time in the world, he'll improve in that area. There's no doubt that Ivey has oodles of upside, and has a chance to be a star in the league. But I would warn him that the NBA landscape is littered with the decaying bodies of athletic players that never reached that magical thing called potential. Personally, I'd put my money on Ivey, but make no mistake, there is some risk there. One last note! I had a lot of similar criticisms of Anthony Edwards coming out of college, and he's become a hell of a player. Just saying!
1. Magic - Jabari Smith Jr.: PF, 6'10", 220 Lb's, 7'1" wingspan, Freshman, Auburn.
28.8 mpg - 16.9 ppg - 42.9% fgp - 42.0% 3pp - 79.9% ftp - 7.4 rpg - 2.0 apg - 1.1 stl's - 1.9 to's - 1.0 blk's - ORtg 116.5 - DRtg 90.7.
Personally, if I had the 1st pick in the draft I would select Chet Holmgren, but it would be a close decision. Smith is one of the players that I think would be a perfect fit on the Kings, he along with Holmgren and Murray. I really like Smith, but, and there's always a but, he has some areas of his game he needs to improve. Now some of the things that bothered me may have to do with the system he was playing in, and his surrounding teammates. Other than Kessler, the center, there wasn't another player on that Auburn team that was worth mentioning, other than mentioning how bad they were.
As a scout said, Smith was playing with two guards that thought they were Curry and Thompson, and took as many shots as that duo. There were many games when each of the guards individually had more shot attempts than Smith and Kessler combined. Enough said! Smith played out on the perimeter far more than I would have liked, and I think that, along with Kessler being a rebounding machine, it distorted how good a rebounder Smith can be. In that same vein, I don't think we saw how good a shotblocker Smith can be with Kessler roaming the paint and blocking an incredible 4.6 shots a game. Smith basically played like a wing, and he was extremely effective doing so, hitting 42% of his threes, many with a hand in his face. He was one of the best shooters in college basketball last season.
He gets great lift on him jump shot, and has a very high release making it almost impossible to block. Defensively there's a lot to like! I think he did a great job defending the three through five positions. He struggled a bit with some of the two's, and really struggled when guarding the quick PG's. I think some of that is correctable. He has a very wide defensive stance, which I think hurts him when trying to move laterally. But all in all, he has the look of a plus defender. He has to improve his ball handling and shot creation off the dribble, and the two of them go together. When you look at Smith's numbers, those numbers become more surprising when you watch him play, and see that he was doubled and at times triple teamed by the other team. He's certainly worthy of the first pick in the draft.
2. Thunder - Chet Holmgren: C/PF, 7'0", 195 Lb's, 7'5" wingspan, Freshman, Gonzaga.
26.9 mpg - 14.1 ppg - 60.7% fgp - 39.0% 3pp - 71.6% ftp - 9.9 rpg - 1.9 apg - 1.9 to's - 0.8 stl's - 3.7 blk's - ORtg 127.0 - DRtg 78.7.
There's only one thing that scares me about Holmgren, and it's no surprise to anyone. His overall weight and strength. I'm sure he'll be able to add to that and get stronger, but I do think he's a little more limited, due to his narrow frame, than the average thin man that enters the NBA. However, Durant couldn't do one bench press at the required weight at the combine, and he's still out there kicking and he's not too bad either. Giannis Antetokounmpo was as skinny as a rail when he entered the NBA. So was Tyson Chandler. So there's hope in that area. Personally, I think Chet has the best chance in this draft of becoming a superstar. He does so many things well for a 7 footer, that he's deserving of the moniker, Unicorn!
Meaning basically, one of a kind! And he is that. He's a natural shot blocker and simply because you can bully him to the basket, it doesn't mean he won't still block your shot. He has great instincts around the basket both defensively and offensively. Despite his slender frame, he's a very good rebounder. Holmgren plays with an edge and he doesn't back down from anyone, which to some extent is scary. Chet is a good three point shooter hitting 39% of his shots from beyond the arc. I wish he had taken more of them, but he spent almost half the season without being a part of the offense. He just sort of roamed around and took advantage of whatever presented itself. Similar to Keegan Murray.
You always had the feeling when watching him play that he was capable of far more than they were asking him to do. He played on the perimeter a lot because of Drew Timme being shackled in the post. He's a very good ballhandler for his size, many times grabbing a rebound and going end to end for a dunk. He's a potential three level scorer at the next level. When you add that to his defensive potential, you just might have a star on your hands. We got an occasional glimpse of his passing ability from time to time, and he appears to be someone you could possibly run the offense through. All in all, he's a very unique player, especially at his size. I saw someone comp him with Poko, which is laughable. He'd be a great fit on the Kings, but unless the Kings trade up, there's no chance.
3. Rockets - Paolo Banchero: PF, 6'10", 250 Lb's, Wingspan NA, Freshman, Duke.
33.0 mpg - 17.2 ppg - 47.8% fgp - 33.8% 3pp - 72.9% ftp - 7.8 rpg - 3.2 apg - 2.4 to's - 1.1 stl's - 0.9 blk's - ORtg 113.8 - DRtg 98.1.
I struggled with this one and almost had a different player here, but I decided that I'd go with the likely consensus. I'm not as sold on Banchero as everyone else. Don't mistake me, I think Banchero is going to be a very good basketball player. I just don't think he's the third best player in this draft. However, there's a lot to like, especially offensively. He's very polished especially in the post, where he displays excellent footwork and touch around the basket. He likes to play a little bully ball at times and he uses his size and strength to punish smaller, weaker players down low. I'm not sure he'll be as effective in the NBA, but I'm sure some of it will translate. He's a smart player and has a good feel for the game.
Some have considered him a three level scorer at the next level. Maybe in the future, but I'm not convinced he has a consistent 3 pt shot. He shot it well in the tournament but I have to see it over a period of time. He has an excellent midrange game with a variety of moves to get his shot. I think his handles are fine for a 6'10" PF especially the way he uses his body to create space. What probably sets him apart from the others is his passing ability. He's a player you can run the offense through. He see's the floor well and has a great feel for the game. Ironically, the player he sort of reminded me of was Sabonis. Yeah, I know, Sabonis is a better rebounder, and definitely a better defender. At least right now.
Which brings us to defense. This is where I tend to struggle with Banchero. He's similar to Sabonis in that he's not a bad defender at the basket. He holds position well and moves his feet well. But he's not a shot blocker and probably needs to play along side a rim running shot blocker, like he did at Duke with Williams. Mark Williams was the perfect running mate for Banchero. Williams was one of the best rim protectors in college last season. He had Banchero's back, and also benefited from Banchero's passes. While I love Banchero's passing, he does need to reduce his turnovers. He basically had a 3 to 2 ratio which isn't that good. My final note is on rebounding. I think rebounding is one of the skills that translates to the NBA, and to be honest, I was a little disappointed in Banchero's rebounding. One would think that a 6'10" 250 Lb player would grab more boards. Smith who played fewer minutes, and played away from the basket grabbed almost the exact same amount of boards, and Murray out rebounded him.
Out of the gate, I expect Banchero to be very effective and maybe be in the running for ROY. But three years from now, I can think of several players that might have passed him by. Doesn't mean your not getting a good player that will help your team. But I think the best case scenario is for Banchero to go to a team with a good defensive center to help cover for his defensive weaknesses.
4. Kings - Keegan Murray: PF/SF, 6'8", 225 Lb's, 6'11" wingspan, Sophomore, Iowa.
31.9 mpg - 23.5 ppg - 55.5% fgp - 39.8% 3pp - 74.7% ftp - 8.7 rpg - 1.5 apg - 1.1 to's - 1.9 blk's - 1.3 stl's - ORtg 134.6 - DRtg 96.8.
On paper last season, Murray was the best player in college basketball. Of course when you watch a player play, the whole exercise becomes more subjective. You see the results, and then ask yourself, how much better can he become. That seems to be the stumbling point for Murray, and I'm not sure why. As I pointed out in another thread, Murray isn't flashy. He isn't demonstrative on the court. No flexing of his muscles or primal screams after a vicious dunk. He just heads back down the floor to play defense. On the other hand, a player like Ivey is very flashy and as a result, fun to watch. But being fun to watch doesn't always equal wins. Murray is one of those players that quietly goes about his business. He does all the dirty work and fills the holes that need filling.
He had one of the highest usage rates in college, yet never looked like a black hole or a ball stopper. James Ham pointed out his usage rate and the lack of assists for a player with that high a rate. But he failed to point out that he barely turned the ball over (1.1 times a game) for a player with such a high rate. I wonder if it ever occurred to Ham that maybe Murray didn't have anyone to pass the ball to who could score, other than maybe his twin brother, who wasn't on the floor at the same time that often. Iowa hardly ever ran plays for Murray and let him be opportunistic. Once in a while they would run a pin down or set a screen for him, but more often than not he got his points by flying in for an offensive rebound and dunk, or in transition, where he was excellent at running the floor.
Murray is a smart player who takes advantage of his defender when he tries to ball watch. He's always sliding to the open spot on the floor where he shot over 40% on catch and shoots. Off the dribble, he's not nearly as good, and that's an aspect of his game he needs to work on. But overall he shot just a tick below 40% from three at 39.8%. Another area of his game that needs to improve is in the midrange. He actually has a nice step back jumper, but he simply didn't use it that much. His handles are fine, but to move to the next level he needs to be better at creating his own shot off the dribble, and improving his handles will help in that regard.
Defensively, he's very good. He was better his Freshman year where I believe he made 2nd all team defense in the Big Ten Conference. But all Iowa asked Murray to do his Freshman year was rebound and defend. This past season, probably because he was carrying almost all the offensive load, they cut back a bit on his defensive responsibilities. But he was still a good defender. He's excellent at keeping his man in front of him, and his off the ball defense is equally good. Murray blocked 1.9 shots mostly as a help defender. Anyone that followed him this season knows he a master at deflections and saving balls from going out of bounds. Lastly, Murray has terrific hands. He catches everything he can get his hands on. Some of his catches this past season were amazing. Some right at the basket at full sprint where he caught and made the basket from a seemingly impossible position.
Which brings me to one more thing. Murray is an excellent post up player, which is a dying art to some extent. He was in the 99 percentile at finishing at the basket in all of college basketball. If you like stats, Murray was 2nd in player efficiency rating for the last 13 years with only Zion Williamson ahead of him. He was 3rd in win shares behind only Williamson and Brandon Clark. There's more that I could bore you with, but I'll leave it at that. Murray is the perfect fit for the Kings. he checks all the boxes. He also fits the type of culture the Kings are trying to build. He's a high character player, and is known to be a Gym rat and a hard worker. Everyone wants a star! How many stars did Memphis have this year? They won because of a system and a team culture. Even when Morant missed games, they kept winning.
5. Pistons - Jaden Ivey: SG/PG, 6'4", 200 Lb's, 6'9" wingspan, Sophomore, Purdue.
31.4 mpg - 17.3 ppg - 46.0% fgp - 35.8% 3pp - 74.4% ftp - 4.9 rpg - 3.1 apg - 2.6 to's - 0.9 stl's - 0.6 blk's - ORtg 114.7 - DRtg 102.5.
Ivey is probably the fastest player in the draft. He's been compared to Westbrook, Wall, Ja Morant, probably because of his hair style, and also Fox. I would say that he's a better 3 pt shooter than Wall, Westbrook, and Fox at the same point in their careers. But none of those four scare you to death from the perimeter. Actually, Ivey shot the ball better in the first half of the season and then sort of tapered off in the 2nd half. Sort of the opposite of Murray whose shot got better as the season went on, and the volume when up. However, Ivey made a huge jump from his Freshman year to his Sophomore year, which if your a scout, is what your looking for. In the open court with a full head of steam, Ivey is almost unstoppable. He seems to be able to blow through cracks to get to the basket, and he likes to Eurostep while going a thousand miles an hour.
While his shot tapered off in the second half, I thought he looked like he was running out of gas at times, and that his legs were gone. Many of his shots came up short, usually a sign of tired legs, and when you consider that Ivey's main skill, is his speed, which he uses considerably, it's not hard to believe his tank was leaning toward empty near the end of the year. I felt the same way about Johnny Davis and to some extent Keegan Murray. All three of those players had a very high usage rate and carried most of the offense for their team. Ivey was the main offense for Purdue. He got a little help from his giant center Zach Idey, who will never set foot in an NBA game, and his backup center Trevion Williams, a terrific passer and a decent post player. Wouldn't mind him with a 2nd rd pick. Point is, Ivey was the offense, and when he had a bad game, they usually lost.
I still believe in Ivey's 3 pt shot. His form is good, so it's not broken. Ivey is a very good finisher, and all his points were scored either at the basket, or from behind the 3 pt line. He has no midrange game. No floater or pull up fade away from 15 feet. Nada! Nothing! Obviously something he'll need to work on in the NBA. Very difficult in today's NBA at the guard position to be successful without a keep you honest midrange shot. Right now if Ivey puts the ball on the floor inside the 3 pt line you pretty much know where he's going. Makes him a lot easier to defend.
So, speaking of defense. I have to admit that I was disappointed in Ivey's defense. Everyone says he has all the tools to be a good defender, and I agree! But talk is cheap. There were periods of games where Ivey made little to no effort on defense. Many times he defended in an almost upright position with his hands down by his side. There were times when he was beat off the dribble and he didn't pursue, or did so halfheartedly. He loves to play the passing lanes for steals, and he's pretty good at it, but you have to do more than that. At times his off ball defense was atrocious. He'd ball watch and had no idea where his man was. Luckily for him, he got away with at times, but that won't happen in the NBA. I would call his defense off the ball a tick better than Buddy Hields.
Having said all that, he has all the physical tools to be a good defender, and one would hope that once in the NBA, with good coaches and all the time in the world, he'll improve in that area. There's no doubt that Ivey has oodles of upside, and has a chance to be a star in the league. But I would warn him that the NBA landscape is littered with the decaying bodies of athletic players that never reached that magical thing called potential. Personally, I'd put my money on Ivey, but make no mistake, there is some risk there. One last note! I had a lot of similar criticisms of Anthony Edwards coming out of college, and he's become a hell of a player. Just saying!
