KINGS PICKING 4TH IN 2022 NBA DRAFT!
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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IMHO, I would be shocked if the top 3 picks go all bigs. Seeing that the NBA has not been a big mans league in 10+ years. We haven't had an all bigs top 3 draft in over a 15+ years. I'm pretty sure that a guard or wing will be taken in the top 3.
I'm thinking one of Sharpe, Ivey or Murray will be taken in the top 3. I think one of the "Big 3 Bigs" will fall to our spot.
It's kinda like in the NFL, the quarterback is the most prized player in football and the QB always gets taken at the top, even if they are not the BPA. In the NBA it's the elite guard/wing.
I'm thinking one of Sharpe, Ivey or Murray will be taken in the top 3. I think one of the "Big 3 Bigs" will fall to our spot.
It's kinda like in the NFL, the quarterback is the most prized player in football and the QB always gets taken at the top, even if they are not the BPA. In the NBA it's the elite guard/wing.
The difference is, none of the top three in this draft are traditional bigs. None of them make their living in the post on offense and all three are good fits for the modern NBA.
Banchero and Jabari Smith Jr are essentially big wings. Jabari is primarily an outside shooter and Banchero makes his living attacking the paint/basket.
Holmgren is essentially a 7 foot wing who can also potentially be a defensive anchor.
It wouldn't surprise me if a team opts for Ivey or Sharpe in the top 3, but it wouldn't be because the current consensus top three are all "bigs".
Banchero and Jabari Smith Jr are essentially big wings. Jabari is primarily an outside shooter and Banchero makes his living attacking the paint/basket.
Holmgren is essentially a 7 foot wing who can also potentially be a defensive anchor.
It wouldn't surprise me if a team opts for Ivey or Sharpe in the top 3, but it wouldn't be because the current consensus top three are all "bigs".
Out of the top 3 or 4 who had been rumored, I'm mostly unsure about Chet Holmgren. I can see his potential, and to be honest, I don't 100% agree with the idea of "a big gap between top 3 and 4". I'll say, Jaden Ivey, Shaedon Sharpe, Chet Holmgren, Ben Mathurin, or Keegan Murray aren't that far off of talents. I think anyone of 4-7, 8 is still going to have what it takes to be a very productive NBA player.
I just don't really like Chet Holmgren for how much of a project he might potentially be. Feels to me like it'll take at least 2-3+ years for him to really fill out his body and flourish, which doesn't really match with our current timeline, which, based on our GM's decisions, seems to be in the late-rebuild phrase.
I'd take any big 3-and-D wings with the #4 pick, assuming we don't strike a trade deal with the pick. It'd be ideal if he's big enough to play the 4 or a freak athlete 3 so we can play either Metu or (if we keep him) Barnes at 4.
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If anyone moves up into the top 3 it'll be Ivey.
If anyone drops from the top 3 it'll be Banchero.
I see us as picking one of; Banchero, Ivey, Sharpe. Or trading out.
If it's Sharpe, we might have to have a little more patience than with Banchero or Ivey making an impact.
But if the talent is there, I think the excitement would carry thru for a bit until he gets acclimated. Hopefully mid season.
Banchero or Ivey could prob start day 1.
I don't see Murray moving up... and I pray we don't pick him at 4.
He's solid at where most mocks have him 6-7. But we are seriously in a do or die spot at 4.
Our asses are damn lucky to be here. Something big better come out of this or heads are gonna roll.
I can see it now when we pass on somebody that blows up ala Doncic 2.0..
Don't screw this up... but you gotta go big.
If anyone drops from the top 3 it'll be Banchero.
I see us as picking one of; Banchero, Ivey, Sharpe. Or trading out.
If it's Sharpe, we might have to have a little more patience than with Banchero or Ivey making an impact.
But if the talent is there, I think the excitement would carry thru for a bit until he gets acclimated. Hopefully mid season.
Banchero or Ivey could prob start day 1.
I don't see Murray moving up... and I pray we don't pick him at 4.
He's solid at where most mocks have him 6-7. But we are seriously in a do or die spot at 4.
Our asses are damn lucky to be here. Something big better come out of this or heads are gonna roll.
I can see it now when we pass on somebody that blows up ala Doncic 2.0..
Don't screw this up... but you gotta go big.
I hear where you’re coming from, but in the sense of “do or die,” what happens if we “die” and pick another bust?
Kings currently have the longest playoff drought in NBA history. In large part, that’s from lots of lotto picks that didn’t pan out. That’s how bad teams stay bad. Bad drafting has kept us perpetually near the bottom of the league.
I’d argue it’s not the time to take a big swing. Nobody wants us to miss out on another Luka, but I’d rather take a guy with potential upside and a high floor than a guy with an infinite ceiling and a super low floor.
Kings currently have the longest playoff drought in NBA history. In large part, that’s from lots of lotto picks that didn’t pan out. That’s how bad teams stay bad. Bad drafting has kept us perpetually near the bottom of the league.
I’d argue it’s not the time to take a big swing. Nobody wants us to miss out on another Luka, but I’d rather take a guy with potential upside and a high floor than a guy with an infinite ceiling and a super low floor.
Unless one of the "Big 3" drops into Kings lap might wind up choice between two sensational Canadians. Benn Mathurin (very soon turning 20) or mystery man Shaedon Sharpe (very soon turning 19). Mathurin surely safer choice at this point but once Sharpe goes under the microscope with his workouts could be the one to help get Kings to the promise land.
One big question about swinging for the fences on guys with potential to become superstar vs a good player with low floor. Do you trust the Kings organization to help this player reach their potential? When was the last time the kings drafted someone and coached them to become a star vs set them up for failure. That’s my biggest concern for drafting a high risk/high potential guy.
If we pick another bust then Monte wasn't the man he was hired to be. For now I still have faith in him. He seems to know draft talent (its the trade stuff jury still out on). Truthfully, IMO it wasn't surprising Vlade screwed up Doncic. He never worked his way up into GM. But, it wasn't just dumb luck Dallas did everything they could to jump up to steal him. They knew, and took a big swing.
Truthfully the only big swing I see would be Sharpe.
I say you prob would be playing it safe if took Banchero or Ivey.
Anyone else, trade down.
It may be another 20 years before we see a pick this high. Not because we are gonna be so good, but because we could be same ol treadmill and maybe sneak into a couple playoffs.
Truthfully the only big swing I see would be Sharpe.
I say you prob would be playing it safe if took Banchero or Ivey.
Anyone else, trade down.
It may be another 20 years before we see a pick this high. Not because we are gonna be so good, but because we could be same ol treadmill and maybe sneak into a couple playoffs.
The 4th pick is a good pick. But it's not a 1st or 2nd or 3rd pick. There aren't that many all-star caliber talents in any particular draft, so I don't know why fans are so fixated on turning the 4th pick into a big swing superstar. It's not terribly realistic. The historical odds are just not that favorable for "swinging big" with the 4th pick.
Yes, moving up in the draft was awesome, but it's not as if the Kings scored the first pick. Even then, the consensus isn't sold on Holmgren or Smith Jr. or Banchero becoming future stars. They all have sizable flaws. You pick within the confines of the draft in front of you, not the draft you wish it was. This draft has quite a bit of depth, but it isn't particularly top heavy. There's a lot of uncertainty regarding the star potential represented in the lottery.
Getting nothing more than a full-time starter out of the 4th pick would not be ideal, but it also would not be historically unusual for a team picking 4th. Kings fans would do well to calibrate their expectations accordingly, and if the goal remains securing the team's first playoff berth in over a decade-and-a-half, well, filling out the lineup with true starting-caliber talent (and preferably two-way talent) would be an excellent place to begin.
Yes, moving up in the draft was awesome, but it's not as if the Kings scored the first pick. Even then, the consensus isn't sold on Holmgren or Smith Jr. or Banchero becoming future stars. They all have sizable flaws. You pick within the confines of the draft in front of you, not the draft you wish it was. This draft has quite a bit of depth, but it isn't particularly top heavy. There's a lot of uncertainty regarding the star potential represented in the lottery.
Getting nothing more than a full-time starter out of the 4th pick would not be ideal, but it also would not be historically unusual for a team picking 4th. Kings fans would do well to calibrate their expectations accordingly, and if the goal remains securing the team's first playoff berth in over a decade-and-a-half, well, filling out the lineup with true starting-caliber talent (and preferably two-way talent) would be an excellent place to begin.
I'd go further: the "safe pick, high-floor-low-ceiling," Keegan Murrays of the draft are every bit as likely as the "boom-bust, low-floor-high-celing"/Jaden-Iveys/Shaedon-Sharpes to turn into genuine stars. Pulling examples from last year's draft: Franz Wagner is as likely to make a few all-star games as Jonathan Kuminga is, Kuminga's physical attributes and athleticism notwithstanding.
I'm honestly stunned that so many Kings fans haven't learned this yet. The only argument for picking Bagley over Doncic was that a lot of people thought Bags had a higher ceiling and that was entirely because of his measurements and athletic profile. He was a #1 recruit who classified early and came into Duke as one of the youngest players in college basketball and just flat out dominated. That sounds like an easy pick to make but if you actually watched him play, 90% of his offense was catching and dunking. He didn't show exceptional skill or awareness on either end of the court.
A reasonable person would have expected him to be better than he is now, but this attitude that you just draft the guys who run the fastest or jump the highest or have the most Sportscenter highlight potential and then you teach them how to play basketball at the NBA level needs to stop. Moving up from #7 to #4 doesn't mean we have to take one of the 4 guys all the talking heads are slobbering over, it means we can look at the same 8 or 9 guys we were going to look at only now we have first choice instead of hoping our top player falls to us. My biggest fear this year is that moving up in the draft ends up hurting us because we talk ourselves into somebody we're supposed to draft instead of trusting the game tape. If you want to know who the best 5-on-5 players are you need to watch them play 5-on-5 and dissect everything they're doing every second that they're on the court not just when they're holding the ball.
A reasonable person would have expected him to be better than he is now, but this attitude that you just draft the guys who run the fastest or jump the highest or have the most Sportscenter highlight potential and then you teach them how to play basketball at the NBA level needs to stop. Moving up from #7 to #4 doesn't mean we have to take one of the 4 guys all the talking heads are slobbering over, it means we can look at the same 8 or 9 guys we were going to look at only now we have first choice instead of hoping our top player falls to us. My biggest fear this year is that moving up in the draft ends up hurting us because we talk ourselves into somebody we're supposed to draft instead of trusting the game tape. If you want to know who the best 5-on-5 players are you need to watch them play 5-on-5 and dissect everything they're doing every second that they're on the court not just when they're holding the ball.
We have a starting PG who averaged 7apg a year ago when he got to be the lead ballhandler all year and matched that this season after the Haliburton trade. We have a second guard who averaged 8-9 assists when he was given starters minutes. And we have a C who averaged 6apg and frequently initiated the offense from the top of the key. I'm not going to act like having more playmakers is a negative because I don't think it ever is on a well-coached team but I also don't see it as a negative that a potential draft pick is skilled at scoring baskets without turning the ball over and he doesn't have great assist numbers. Eventually someone needs to shoot the ball. Specifically we need players who can catch and shoot from behind the three point line and Murray has developed into one of the better shooting wings or stretch 4s in this draft.
It's possible but again, that's partly determined by the position they play and the value of it depending on where the league is at. Here are your 4 PF's at the end, Dray, PJ Tucker, Finney-Smith, and Grant Williams. All basically role players although Draymonds got obvious intangibles and PG skills. Finney-Smith is the most prominent scorer this season averaging 11 PPG, the rest? Mid 7 ppg.
Players like Franz Wagner are likely going to make all star squads based on success, not individual performance. We'll have to see how he develops. He obviously came out very young and still has room to grow but his game was pretty complete coming in. As far as Kuminga, well, he was a slight disappointment in the G-league already. Green was seen as an afterthought on that team and looked much better. Then you get to Scottie Barnes. If you have someone that is a little raw, but shows that potentially special thing as a play maker combined with an unteachable athleticism/size/or whatever, you don't pass that up.
It's a good thing that teams didn't pass up on Mobley or Barnes like some thought was probably wise. That said, the discussion isn't over obviously. Wagner could hit an extra gear and the others might stagnate. Who knows. What we do know is if a player looks that special to you, don't pass it up. Just don't. The players I see in that Barnes mold of high, high ceiling based on those unteachable things beings discussed at 4 are Ivey/Sharpe. Not that Keegan on the right team won't put up 25 a game. Is this it? I think it could be. I just don't know about a front line of Barnes/Murray/Sabonis exactly fitting it with the contenders. Heck, it might be their kryptonite which is interesting but the only comparison is the Nuggets with Gordon/MPJ/Jokic and I think the Kings would be a rung below athletically at SF/PF. Certainly they lack a player capable of winning a dunk contest.
Players like Franz Wagner are likely going to make all star squads based on success, not individual performance. We'll have to see how he develops. He obviously came out very young and still has room to grow but his game was pretty complete coming in. As far as Kuminga, well, he was a slight disappointment in the G-league already. Green was seen as an afterthought on that team and looked much better. Then you get to Scottie Barnes. If you have someone that is a little raw, but shows that potentially special thing as a play maker combined with an unteachable athleticism/size/or whatever, you don't pass that up.
It's a good thing that teams didn't pass up on Mobley or Barnes like some thought was probably wise. That said, the discussion isn't over obviously. Wagner could hit an extra gear and the others might stagnate. Who knows. What we do know is if a player looks that special to you, don't pass it up. Just don't. The players I see in that Barnes mold of high, high ceiling based on those unteachable things beings discussed at 4 are Ivey/Sharpe. Not that Keegan on the right team won't put up 25 a game. Is this it? I think it could be. I just don't know about a front line of Barnes/Murray/Sabonis exactly fitting it with the contenders. Heck, it might be their kryptonite which is interesting but the only comparison is the Nuggets with Gordon/MPJ/Jokic and I think the Kings would be a rung below athletically at SF/PF. Certainly they lack a player capable of winning a dunk contest.
Where was it said sometimes when everyone is trying for a homerun when you just need a double.
This has been why it's always been Smith, Murray, Mathurin for me.
At first it was hope Murray falls but just take Mathurin if he doesn't, now I'm hoping Smith falls but if not just take Murray.
I do not want a player who is allergic to defense that "we can just teach". I don't care if it means that we only get the second best player available to us at our spot. I would 100x rather be the Suns or the Hawks than where we have been as Kings fans since 2018.
This has been why it's always been Smith, Murray, Mathurin for me.
At first it was hope Murray falls but just take Mathurin if he doesn't, now I'm hoping Smith falls but if not just take Murray.
I do not want a player who is allergic to defense that "we can just teach". I don't care if it means that we only get the second best player available to us at our spot. I would 100x rather be the Suns or the Hawks than where we have been as Kings fans since 2018.
I see that, and that's why this is all so tough. I'll go back to it though. If they do have start over considering I don't think a single player they draft is going to be THE missing cog next year, I want as many boxes checked off on the unteachables as you can get rather than just pure fit. This is funny I'm having deja vu with Bagley discussions back in the day. haha. There were points where I was like what's the point of having Fox/Bogdan/Luka? Too much of the same. And while that obviously wouldn't have worked as a combo the sense eventually came back into, you draft Luka although Bagley is a solid 20 and 10 big. Like I said above, you can get away with role players at PF these days at SG and/or SF is where it looks like you can't be outmatched if these finals have a say in it. We also don't know what the exact plans are. Maybe they are expecting something else to go down that absolutely makes it necessary to draft Murray. 1 v 1, I'm picking the upside guys knowing they aren't as "safe". The Kings are teetering on the edge of giving up. Plenty more high picks that they don't have to luck their way into might be on the way as it is, lol.
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