Trade targets
- Thread starter dude12
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I've been back and forth on whether Simmons is worth the risk so many times that I'm giving myself whiplash but if you just look at the facts here and assume Simmons is going to play in the NBA again, it's an easy win for us. Harris is overpaid but he's a legit NBA wing who's maybe a small downgrade from Harrison Barnes or about equal depending on how you grade their defense. Simmons has problems with his shooting that might not go away but he's a 3x All Star and first team all defense wing who can handle the ball and pass like a guard and defend any position on the floor. Looking at where we're at defensively, can we really afford to turn down a player who will be in the DPOY conversation every year because Philly is asking us for the guy who finished 3rd in RoY voting last year and a couple of picks we're probably going to waste anyway?
Yes.
Here's why:
History is littered with players who were absolute beasts who fell off precipitously, and that doesn't include taking a year off due to mental health (real or not) issues. I mean, what has Simmons been up to during this time? Clearly not working with the team.
That said, I do agree that I don't trust the Kings to not botch another draft pick, so that gamble, to me, is likely worth it, unless they're picking in the top 5, which is a real possibility.
Here's why:
History is littered with players who were absolute beasts who fell off precipitously, and that doesn't include taking a year off due to mental health (real or not) issues. I mean, what has Simmons been up to during this time? Clearly not working with the team.
That said, I do agree that I don't trust the Kings to not botch another draft pick, so that gamble, to me, is likely worth it, unless they're picking in the top 5, which is a real possibility.
This is the kind of deal you want Monte to make?
I'd rather he just stand pat at that point and wait till the off-season. Barnes should be able to do quite a bit better than an ok young player (that might be overpaid considering his play this season, we'll see) and a first 5 years down the road. The whole "be aggressive no matter what!" is how you go down the Vlade path of the mess we're in now.
Bulls and the Warriors are the teams we need to be talking to heavily. A guy like Barnes or Holmes absolutely could be a piece that puts their contender over the top and both squads are pretty clearly on a 2-3 year timeline. Holmes to the Warriors plugs their biggest hole and Barnes to the Bulls plugs their biggest hole. There's no time for a Moody/Kuminga/Pat Williams to grow up.
I'd rather he just stand pat at that point and wait till the off-season. Barnes should be able to do quite a bit better than an ok young player (that might be overpaid considering his play this season, we'll see) and a first 5 years down the road. The whole "be aggressive no matter what!" is how you go down the Vlade path of the mess we're in now.
Bulls and the Warriors are the teams we need to be talking to heavily. A guy like Barnes or Holmes absolutely could be a piece that puts their contender over the top and both squads are pretty clearly on a 2-3 year timeline. Holmes to the Warriors plugs their biggest hole and Barnes to the Bulls plugs their biggest hole. There's no time for a Moody/Kuminga/Pat Williams to grow up.
Almost all the undervalued players with good metrics we've wanted for the last few years have gone on to play well afterward. Tyus Jones, Kyle Anderson, Boucher and Vanderbilt. I'm sure there were a couple misses in there but for a franchise that's supposed to be technologically advanced, they sure don't know how to use simple metrics to determine when under the radar players are playing over their perceived value. We found proof of that when they traded Delon Wright. Another player in the same mold. All these players have one thing in common, they defend.
Maybe Vivek and Monte need to watch Moneyball to get inspired?
Maybe Vivek and Monte need to watch Moneyball to get inspired?
You forgot the biggest hit, FVV.
It's really stupid that 2 dudes on a forum who follow basketball as fans with a basic understanding of advances stats has a significantly better track record than a billion dollar organization. Like you said, this stuff isn't hard and it's pretty easy to see which guys are primed for a break-out with the right opportunity.
It's really stupid that 2 dudes on a forum who follow basketball as fans with a basic understanding of advances stats has a significantly better track record than a billion dollar organization. Like you said, this stuff isn't hard and it's pretty easy to see which guys are primed for a break-out with the right opportunity.
Well we did sign Terence Davis to a 2 year/$8 mil deal 
Yep FVV was another one. I mean we can't guarantee any of these signings because it takes a player willing to sign to be able to get him but it's not like the Kings were ever mentioned in any rumors with these types of players. The DiVencenzo deal was the closest we've had so far to this archetype.
Seems like the Kings tend to sign the opposite type. Older players whose metrics peaked long ago and now have a negative impact on winning.
Anyone on your radar this year? There aren't a whole lot of options. Brandon Clarke seems to be the most obvious to me. Has fallen out of favor in Memphis' lineup a bit but his impact stats are always good.
Yeah Clarke is a great call. Not entirely sure why he fell out of the Grizzlies rotation, but if we could get a buy-low for the Grizzlies to get some "vet leadership" for their playoff push, he'd be an incredible target. Was a huge fan of him in that draft and was ticked we didn't trade into the late first to grab him.
My guy is PJ Washington. Impact stats are down a bit this year with his move to the bench, but I think the skill-set/talent profile is absolutely perfect for a high upside role player/starter. He's an elite shooter/passer for a big, has good rim protection despite only being 6'7 because of his length. Especially if the plan is to move forward with Fox/Hali, a guy like PJ is an absolute glove fit being a good defender, another connector with Hali and gives elite spacing for Fox drives.
PJ Washington:
LEBRON: -0.9
RAPTOR: +1.5
LA-RAPM: -0.6
BPM: 0.0
VORP: +0.4
WS/48: .096
ON/OFF Net Rtg: +3.8
The other 2 guys I'm loving are the Martin twins. Both kind of had some sneaky potential earlier in their career with really valuable defense/IQ/passing, but they've added some shooting to go along with it. Either guy would instantly become the best perimeter defender on the team by a mile and can defend any 1-3. Caleb especially has been a big reason the Heat have been able to withstand the injuries they've had this year. Just really popped as an outstanding role player
Cody Martin:
LEBRON: -0.3
RAPTOR: +1.4
LA-RAPM: 0.9
BPM: +0.5
VORP: +0.7
WS/48: .110
ON/Off Net Rtg: +2.2
Caleb Martin:
LEBRON: +0.4
RAPTOR: +2.4
LA-RAPM: +1.0
BPM: +1.4
VORP: 0.7
WS/48: .149
On/Off Net Rtg: +3.8
Not necessarily a break-out guy since he's been a starter for years now is Dorian Finney-Smith heading for UFA. Just a seriously undervalued role guy next to dominant ball-handlers and has had incredible impact stats for years now. True 3/4 flex wing that can defend either position at a high level and has become a consistently great 3pt shooter (37.6%, 39.4%, 36.9%) on 4.3, 5.0, 5.1 attempts per season.
Dorian Finney-Smith:
LEBRON: +0.6
RAPTOR: +3.9
LA-RAPM: +1.1
BPM: +0.9
VORP: +1.1
WS/48: .117
ON/Off Net Rtg: +1.1
In terms of a budget retool, these are 4 guys I think would work flawlessly with Fox/Hali and enhance their games. Really strong overall skill-sets, good/great passers, excellent defenders and if the Martin bros shooting is real just fit everything you want/need in complimentary talents.
My guy is PJ Washington. Impact stats are down a bit this year with his move to the bench, but I think the skill-set/talent profile is absolutely perfect for a high upside role player/starter. He's an elite shooter/passer for a big, has good rim protection despite only being 6'7 because of his length. Especially if the plan is to move forward with Fox/Hali, a guy like PJ is an absolute glove fit being a good defender, another connector with Hali and gives elite spacing for Fox drives.
PJ Washington:
LEBRON: -0.9
RAPTOR: +1.5
LA-RAPM: -0.6
BPM: 0.0
VORP: +0.4
WS/48: .096
ON/OFF Net Rtg: +3.8
The other 2 guys I'm loving are the Martin twins. Both kind of had some sneaky potential earlier in their career with really valuable defense/IQ/passing, but they've added some shooting to go along with it. Either guy would instantly become the best perimeter defender on the team by a mile and can defend any 1-3. Caleb especially has been a big reason the Heat have been able to withstand the injuries they've had this year. Just really popped as an outstanding role player
Cody Martin:
LEBRON: -0.3
RAPTOR: +1.4
LA-RAPM: 0.9
BPM: +0.5
VORP: +0.7
WS/48: .110
ON/Off Net Rtg: +2.2
Caleb Martin:
LEBRON: +0.4
RAPTOR: +2.4
LA-RAPM: +1.0
BPM: +1.4
VORP: 0.7
WS/48: .149
On/Off Net Rtg: +3.8
Not necessarily a break-out guy since he's been a starter for years now is Dorian Finney-Smith heading for UFA. Just a seriously undervalued role guy next to dominant ball-handlers and has had incredible impact stats for years now. True 3/4 flex wing that can defend either position at a high level and has become a consistently great 3pt shooter (37.6%, 39.4%, 36.9%) on 4.3, 5.0, 5.1 attempts per season.
Dorian Finney-Smith:
LEBRON: +0.6
RAPTOR: +3.9
LA-RAPM: +1.1
BPM: +0.9
VORP: +1.1
WS/48: .117
ON/Off Net Rtg: +1.1
In terms of a budget retool, these are 4 guys I think would work flawlessly with Fox/Hali and enhance their games. Really strong overall skill-sets, good/great passers, excellent defenders and if the Martin bros shooting is real just fit everything you want/need in complimentary talents.
All good picks. I wasn't high on the Martins last year but they've both turned it up this year for sure. DFS has been a solid wing for a while now. PJ Washington is in the Clarke area for me. Better defender, not as good on offense. Lots of solid players out there that shouldn't cost an arm and a leg. Hield would be a good trading chip for some of them. Barnes as well but I'd hope Barnes would be worth a little more.
These are the types of guys I'd like to pick up while trading and tanking for first round draft picks. Couple these types of players while hitting on a draft pick or two and you have yourself a Memphis type team.
These are the types of guys I'd like to pick up while trading and tanking for first round draft picks. Couple these types of players while hitting on a draft pick or two and you have yourself a Memphis type team.
So other than my personal hope the the kings get into the myles turner hunt, what is the possibility the kings could pull deandre ayton from the suns this off season? We have 2 expiring contracts in bagley and TT totalling $19M that I would love to throw his way. Pairing him with Holmes could be a problem but 2 bigs with poor outside shooting solid athletes with good defensive chops seems to be working for Cleveland. But it allows you the freedom with Davion, Holmes, Buddy, and Bagley to move. It does solve some rebounding and rim protection problems for the kings.
Yep. You need the third banana with Fox/Hali to really try and build something, but these are the exact player archetypes high-end playoff teams surround their stars with. It's hopefulyl something Monte is addressing with his draft/young player profiles. Davis, King, Ramsey, Davion, Queta, Metu, Jones. Long, athletic, actually care on the defensive end.
It's looking more and more like this won't be a straight line thing to building a team on a short timetable. This is the problem with what he's done to his cap as he's stacked positions while deciding Fox/Haliburton are his core. He needs to start stripping a bit of cap down and getting future draft assets and a slasher that can also makes some plays would be a decent get IMO. THT has some nice slashing skills that I think would help the Kings when Fox is off the floor. They clearly miss that when he's out.
No real interest in making the Warriors better and a young/pick package with a team like the Lakers who are in kind of flux could potentially pay off better short term. The Bulls and Warriors probably aren't even that hard up to make a move at the moment. They don't want to mess up their chemistry let alone add that kind of salary. If the Lakers are already floating that package and that's what's out there I think it would make sense. Then if Monte can somehow get out of that 2nd year of the Harkless deal he is on his way to some potential space to work a bad deal/pick package and gather more assets to use later on.
No real interest in making the Warriors better and a young/pick package with a team like the Lakers who are in kind of flux could potentially pay off better short term. The Bulls and Warriors probably aren't even that hard up to make a move at the moment. They don't want to mess up their chemistry let alone add that kind of salary. If the Lakers are already floating that package and that's what's out there I think it would make sense. Then if Monte can somehow get out of that 2nd year of the Harkless deal he is on his way to some potential space to work a bad deal/pick package and gather more assets to use later on.
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Kings fans: "This team is garbage, I won't pay to watch them and I won't watch them for free either. These bums can't beat a team of backup players and they give up 130 points every night regardless of opponent. Blow it up, trade everybody, fire the GM and the interim coach, tank for picks. Just do something, we're the best fans in the NBA and we deserve a championship."
Also Kings fans: "No way, our 0 x All Star averaging 14 and 7 is way better than your 3 x All Star and last year's defensive player of the year runner up, you should be giving us your picks but actually you can't have him anyway for any price. Let's offer them 3 players we've been begging the Kings to trade all year because we're sick of watching them instead and wait to see who flinches first."
Also Kings fans: "No way, our 0 x All Star averaging 14 and 7 is way better than your 3 x All Star and last year's defensive player of the year runner up, you should be giving us your picks but actually you can't have him anyway for any price. Let's offer them 3 players we've been begging the Kings to trade all year because we're sick of watching them instead and wait to see who flinches first."
We've been one of the worst defensive teams ever for most of the last decade and someone is offering us one of the top 5 best individual defenders in the league. If he were perfect he would be untouchable. What's the alternative here, we wait for the team to draft a superstar for the first time in the 35 year history of the Kings in Sacramento?
Hardly anyone is showing up to the games. Judging by the game threads not a lot of people care about watching them on TV or streaming either. Either a very loud minority or a majority want us to supertank because that's the only way the "draft a superstar" strategy becomes remotely plausible so the worst case scenario here is that Ben Simmons (who looked 3 years ago like he was going to be a top 5 player in the league if he developed a halfway decent jumpshot) is so bad that the loudest complainers get exactly what they're asking for anyway.
If you (speaking generally) can't even bother to watch the team except to root for them to lose, and said team is currently in the middle of the longest playoff drought in league history, I don't see why you (speaking generally) should be clutching your shiny pearls while turning up your nose at a player who would instantly make us a lot better in the area we need the most help. We have Tyrese Haliburton right now and we're 18-30. If your reality is that Haliburton is better than a 3 x All Star, why are we 12 games under .500? I realize this is something Kings fans always do while their players are on rookie contracts. Every single one of them is a budding superstar until they're not. And then suddenly they magically become the reason we're losing and we can't pay anyone to take them. Don't you think it's time we tried something different?
Hardly anyone is showing up to the games. Judging by the game threads not a lot of people care about watching them on TV or streaming either. Either a very loud minority or a majority want us to supertank because that's the only way the "draft a superstar" strategy becomes remotely plausible so the worst case scenario here is that Ben Simmons (who looked 3 years ago like he was going to be a top 5 player in the league if he developed a halfway decent jumpshot) is so bad that the loudest complainers get exactly what they're asking for anyway.
If you (speaking generally) can't even bother to watch the team except to root for them to lose, and said team is currently in the middle of the longest playoff drought in league history, I don't see why you (speaking generally) should be clutching your shiny pearls while turning up your nose at a player who would instantly make us a lot better in the area we need the most help. We have Tyrese Haliburton right now and we're 18-30. If your reality is that Haliburton is better than a 3 x All Star, why are we 12 games under .500? I realize this is something Kings fans always do while their players are on rookie contracts. Every single one of them is a budding superstar until they're not. And then suddenly they magically become the reason we're losing and we can't pay anyone to take them. Don't you think it's time we tried something different?
That was good. Hard to believe that people completely ignore the fact that he’s most likely, quit on his team due to his feelings getting hurt. (And the alternative is that he truly does have mental health issues which can not be ignored and another gigantic reason not to trade for him).
I hope Morey holds him and truly is banking on trying to deal Simmons for Harden in the off-season and I hope that the Nets hinted at that and then when the off-season comes, the Nets say…..nah, just kidding. I mean why would they help a Conference rival.
I hope Morey holds him and truly is banking on trying to deal Simmons for Harden in the off-season and I hope that the Nets hinted at that and then when the off-season comes, the Nets say…..nah, just kidding. I mean why would they help a Conference rival.
There's a big difference in Haliburton for Simmons and Haliburton + multiple first round picks for Simmons.
Simmons is superior but he's not worth losing Haliburton's contributions plus a few first round picks for. You aren't just trading for 15, 7 and 7 with elite defense Simmons. You're trading for all the baggage that comes along with that and that has a cost to it. You let the Sixers off the hook if the latter is disregarded. Hali for Simmons? Ok, but you need to have Fox lined up to be traded in another deal. Hali for Simmons + a FRP? We're talking. Anything more than that? Kick rocks. It's not like our FRPs are in the 20s. They have a lot of value to them.
This franchise only has a few avenues to acquire talent. Simmons isn't Embiid and can't carry a team on his own. You don't just hand the keys over to him with low level role players and perennial losing players and make a run at it without the ability to draft any talent for the next few years.
Simmons is superior but he's not worth losing Haliburton's contributions plus a few first round picks for. You aren't just trading for 15, 7 and 7 with elite defense Simmons. You're trading for all the baggage that comes along with that and that has a cost to it. You let the Sixers off the hook if the latter is disregarded. Hali for Simmons? Ok, but you need to have Fox lined up to be traded in another deal. Hali for Simmons + a FRP? We're talking. Anything more than that? Kick rocks. It's not like our FRPs are in the 20s. They have a lot of value to them.
This franchise only has a few avenues to acquire talent. Simmons isn't Embiid and can't carry a team on his own. You don't just hand the keys over to him with low level role players and perennial losing players and make a run at it without the ability to draft any talent for the next few years.
Yeah I just don't understand why people think flipping Hali or Fox for Simmons changes anything. If you found a way to add Simmons TO Hali/Fox, then sure, that's the sort of talent upgrade the Kings need and a worthy risk to pair those 3. But that doesn't seem to be the case with Morey being an idiot and wasting a prime year of Embiid with his asking price.
Once again, vying for a "better fit" of a 33 win team is absolutely pointless. Simmons is not worth 10+ wins over Fox or Hali and that still might keep us out of playoff contenion.
Once again, vying for a "better fit" of a 33 win team is absolutely pointless. Simmons is not worth 10+ wins over Fox or Hali and that still might keep us out of playoff contenion.