Blow It Up
- Thread starter SLAB
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Boston for all their praise is a giant mess too. And OKC is at the point where they are going to have to start moving young players or trading their picks just to be able to sign these picks.
I really think that maybe a Fox for Tatum or Brown then see if we can work a swap of ill fitting front court players with Indy would allow us to balance the roster and enter the competitive process.
I don't think we have the right pieces for Simmons right now.
I really think that maybe a Fox for Tatum or Brown then see if we can work a swap of ill fitting front court players with Indy would allow us to balance the roster and enter the competitive process.
I don't think we have the right pieces for Simmons right now.
First of all, let's get the facts straight. The team Sam Hinkie inherited had a 22 year old All Star PG on it (Jrue Holiday) who he promptly traded for Nerlens Noel and Dario Saric in the draft. The Sixers have also not had multiple deep playoff runs since he was ousted, they've won 3 playoff series in 4 years and have yet to advance out of the Semi-Finals in the East.
Joel Embiid is a top 10 player but he fell to third overall in the 2014 draft because of injury concerns. If he doesn't get injured in the middle of his Freshman season at Kansas and subsequently get red flagged by a lot of team doctors he wouldn't have been available at the third pick and they probably end up with Aaron Gordon or Dante Exum instead. He also missed the first two seasons of his rookie contract because of his injuries and is currently averaging 52 out of 82 games played per year in his career (granted one of those years was shortened due to Covid) so he's a franchise player with a pretty significant caveat.
I also think it's more than a little disingenuous to credit Sam Hinkie for snapping up Christian Wood, Jerami Grant, and Richaun Holmes with second round picks (as @twslam07 does) when they all had their breakout seasons 4-5 years after leaving the Sixers when they played for different teams. If anything that just reinforces my point that taking a scattershot approach to the draft is meaningless unless you have the resources to develop those players in house and the patience to roster them for 6 years waiting for the payoff. Draft picks in and of themselves are worth nothing. It's the potential that teams will pay you for and after you've taken a player and stuck them on your bench that value is only going down.
If you add it all up Sam Hinkie wasted 3 years bottoming out and only one player he drafted is still with the team. The Sixers with their truckload of ill gotten goods are currently a middling team in the resurgent Eastern Conference and even as the 1 seed last season they got knocked out of the playoffs by an Atlanta Hawks squad that had the same 11-16 record that we have right now at the start of last season.
Joel Embiid is a top 10 player but he fell to third overall in the 2014 draft because of injury concerns. If he doesn't get injured in the middle of his Freshman season at Kansas and subsequently get red flagged by a lot of team doctors he wouldn't have been available at the third pick and they probably end up with Aaron Gordon or Dante Exum instead. He also missed the first two seasons of his rookie contract because of his injuries and is currently averaging 52 out of 82 games played per year in his career (granted one of those years was shortened due to Covid) so he's a franchise player with a pretty significant caveat.
I also think it's more than a little disingenuous to credit Sam Hinkie for snapping up Christian Wood, Jerami Grant, and Richaun Holmes with second round picks (as @twslam07 does) when they all had their breakout seasons 4-5 years after leaving the Sixers when they played for different teams. If anything that just reinforces my point that taking a scattershot approach to the draft is meaningless unless you have the resources to develop those players in house and the patience to roster them for 6 years waiting for the payoff. Draft picks in and of themselves are worth nothing. It's the potential that teams will pay you for and after you've taken a player and stuck them on your bench that value is only going down.
If you add it all up Sam Hinkie wasted 3 years bottoming out and only one player he drafted is still with the team. The Sixers with their truckload of ill gotten goods are currently a middling team in the resurgent Eastern Conference and even as the 1 seed last season they got knocked out of the playoffs by an Atlanta Hawks squad that had the same 11-16 record that we have right now at the start of last season.
Ainge got a lot of praise for lucking into the Brooklyn Nets pretty much giving him all of their picks for a good half decade in exchange for a bunch of players that made them worse but aside from that, the last three or so years of his tenure has left the Celtics roster a giant disaster.
Brown and Tatum could probably coexist if only they had a capable distributor on their roster but Ainge let Hayward walk two seasons ago and only went after score-first guards since drafting Tatum.
To their credit, they nailed two of the three high lotto picks they've had in the past ten years (with the other one being Marcus Smart, who's been incredibly vital to whatever success they have achieved) but since then, they've absolutely whiffed on almost all of their draft picks or traded ones who've gone on to become very good NBA players (they traded the picks that would go on to become Thybulle and Desmond Bane on draft day).
Kings fans were fighting hard to get the Kings to trade Barnes for Nesmith or Langford and a pick but neither of those dudes have looked like solid NBA players.
Ideally, the Celtics would be willing to trade one of their star wings for one of our guards and a pick package but I'm still not sure what Brad Stevens is trying to achieve with his roster. If we were really going for a blow it up trade, I'm sure they'd jump at a chance to pair Fox with both Tatum and Brown and they have enough volatility in terms of franchise stability that a first round pick two or three years down the line might end up being a lotto pick.
OKC's a weird situation too. People swore up and down that THIS summer would be the one where the Thunder made their big move and pushed their rebuild further along and yet here they are, sorta waiting around for the draft again after all those galaxy brained Presti deals with weird protections on lotto picks backfired (Houston wound up outtanking the Thunder and keeping their pick) and the Thunder only wound up with the 7th overall pick. Now they're facing down an avalanche of mid-value picks (most of the picks they traded for are only conveying because the teams they're coming from are making the playoffs and pushing those picks into the 15-20 range) while also probably being a bit too good to sneak into he top 4 pick range again unless they come up with a fake injury for Shai again. Also they traded the pick that would become Alperen Sengun for more future picks despite Sengun being better than what those future picks could ultimately before.
I'm not saying what either of these two teams is doing is wrong but their roads to success certainly aren't as clearcut as they seem despite garner nearly universal praise for some reason.
Meanwhile, the Cavs sorta floundered around for a while, stole Jarrett Allen from the Nets and had a franchise altering big man talent fall into their laps after also jumping in the lottery and are now a playoff team.
Brown and Tatum could probably coexist if only they had a capable distributor on their roster but Ainge let Hayward walk two seasons ago and only went after score-first guards since drafting Tatum.
To their credit, they nailed two of the three high lotto picks they've had in the past ten years (with the other one being Marcus Smart, who's been incredibly vital to whatever success they have achieved) but since then, they've absolutely whiffed on almost all of their draft picks or traded ones who've gone on to become very good NBA players (they traded the picks that would go on to become Thybulle and Desmond Bane on draft day).
Kings fans were fighting hard to get the Kings to trade Barnes for Nesmith or Langford and a pick but neither of those dudes have looked like solid NBA players.
Ideally, the Celtics would be willing to trade one of their star wings for one of our guards and a pick package but I'm still not sure what Brad Stevens is trying to achieve with his roster. If we were really going for a blow it up trade, I'm sure they'd jump at a chance to pair Fox with both Tatum and Brown and they have enough volatility in terms of franchise stability that a first round pick two or three years down the line might end up being a lotto pick.
OKC's a weird situation too. People swore up and down that THIS summer would be the one where the Thunder made their big move and pushed their rebuild further along and yet here they are, sorta waiting around for the draft again after all those galaxy brained Presti deals with weird protections on lotto picks backfired (Houston wound up outtanking the Thunder and keeping their pick) and the Thunder only wound up with the 7th overall pick. Now they're facing down an avalanche of mid-value picks (most of the picks they traded for are only conveying because the teams they're coming from are making the playoffs and pushing those picks into the 15-20 range) while also probably being a bit too good to sneak into he top 4 pick range again unless they come up with a fake injury for Shai again. Also they traded the pick that would become Alperen Sengun for more future picks despite Sengun being better than what those future picks could ultimately before.
I'm not saying what either of these two teams is doing is wrong but their roads to success certainly aren't as clearcut as they seem despite garner nearly universal praise for some reason.
Meanwhile, the Cavs sorta floundered around for a while, stole Jarrett Allen from the Nets and had a franchise altering big man talent fall into their laps after also jumping in the lottery and are now a playoff team.
Sam "Cut down in his prime!" Hinkie getting unceremoniously fired and replaced by a Colangelo has only served to add to his mystique.
There's a weird sort of "But can you imagine how amazing things would have been in YEAR SEVEN of the process???" madness reserved only for doomsday cults and 19th century snake oil dealers surrounding a guy who only went 47-199 in his tenure as a GM, entirely because he made losing his entire brand.
I have no idea whether or not Hinkie's platonic ideal of the process would have worked out but thanks to him getting fired in the manner that he did (the NBA intervening in the name of competitive balance but really in the name of not cratering ratings in one of the biggest TV markets in America) and when he did (while Embiid was sitting out his second consecutive season and in the midst of a 10 win year), proponents will always claim that the revolution died in its infancy.
There's a weird sort of "But can you imagine how amazing things would have been in YEAR SEVEN of the process???" madness reserved only for doomsday cults and 19th century snake oil dealers surrounding a guy who only went 47-199 in his tenure as a GM, entirely because he made losing his entire brand.
I have no idea whether or not Hinkie's platonic ideal of the process would have worked out but thanks to him getting fired in the manner that he did (the NBA intervening in the name of competitive balance but really in the name of not cratering ratings in one of the biggest TV markets in America) and when he did (while Embiid was sitting out his second consecutive season and in the midst of a 10 win year), proponents will always claim that the revolution died in its infancy.
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The Fox to the Celtics but not for one of Brown/Tatum is more of a last resort rebuild sort of idea than anything I would actually want to do LOL.
A Tatum/Brown/Fox core could be one of the best in the league and I could see Boston selling the farm to make it happen with there also being a slight chance that it all falls apart a la Houston and we wind up with a high lotto pick as the Celtics end up having to rebuild. There are probably better options for a Fox trade in the case of a "BLOW UP" but that was just one I was spitballing.
A Tatum/Brown/Fox core could be one of the best in the league and I could see Boston selling the farm to make it happen with there also being a slight chance that it all falls apart a la Houston and we wind up with a high lotto pick as the Celtics end up having to rebuild. There are probably better options for a Fox trade in the case of a "BLOW UP" but that was just one I was spitballing.
I feel like any Fox deal has to bring a big talent back since the salaries need some matching. We could take on two "upgrades" and a pick but then we get into shuffling deck chair routine. Fox might be able to crack the all stars in the east but with his luck Dame or someone else moves out there and he gets frozen out for the rest of his career.
Vlade was the exception rather than the rule. He should've applied the same metrics to Vlade as he did others. What exactly is that metric? Vivek applies a Minimum Viable Product approach--run fast and pivot. The runway is two to three years max. This is absolutely Monte's window to do something big. Sit on his hands and dude is gone by this time next year.
The Celtics have that Al Horford contract or they could put together a package of other random overpaid dudes on their roster to get it done so it's not impossible. Given the fervor of Boston sports fans, there's a chance Fox gets named an all-star starter even if his numbers aren't as gaudy as they were last season.
Yeah, the issue with any rebuild trade is that you're never going to get immediate equivalent value for the good players you move. The hope would be that you get lucky and one of picks you get ends up being the next Lebron or Giannis be it through dumb lotto luck or finding a diamond in the rough.
Yeah, the issue with any rebuild trade is that you're never going to get immediate equivalent value for the good players you move. The hope would be that you get lucky and one of picks you get ends up being the next Lebron or Giannis be it through dumb lotto luck or finding a diamond in the rough.
If we come out of this trade period with Brown and Turner on a roster that still has Hali and Davion I’d be pretty intrigued.
Fox to Boston miiiiiiiiiiight get us one of Tatum or Brown, and could even be one of those rare win/win trades. Hali takes over at PG.
No clue how we’d get Turner…Buddy, Bagley and….. something..
Fox to Boston miiiiiiiiiiight get us one of Tatum or Brown, and could even be one of those rare win/win trades. Hali takes over at PG.
No clue how we’d get Turner…Buddy, Bagley and….. something..
Deadline's still two months away so there's still so much that could change in the league.
There's a whole glut of teams in the Western conference playoff picture that are in desperate need of a talent upgrade but unfortunately don't have the assets to really make it happen. Meanwhile, the Kings are sitting on a moderate amount of trade assets and have all of their draft picks to work with.
I don't know which direction I'd want to go with but, be it rebuild or win now, I just want Monte to pick a path and really go for it. No more hedging.
There's a whole glut of teams in the Western conference playoff picture that are in desperate need of a talent upgrade but unfortunately don't have the assets to really make it happen. Meanwhile, the Kings are sitting on a moderate amount of trade assets and have all of their draft picks to work with.
I don't know which direction I'd want to go with but, be it rebuild or win now, I just want Monte to pick a path and really go for it. No more hedging.
How is it disingenuous to say that Sam Hinkie left with guys like Richaun Holmes (37th pick), Jerami Grant (39th pick), Christian Wood (undrafted), & Robert Covington (undrafted) on the roster? Hinkie doesn't get any credit because the next GM moved them off the roster and they "broke out" a couple years later with a new team? That seems like a stretch. How do you know they wouldn't have broken out on PHI if they remained on the roster under Hinkie? How do you know they wouldn't have been even better had they stayed on PHI? How do you know Noel and/or Okafor wouldn't have been better had they stayed on PHI? Okay maybe not Okafor but hopefully you get my point.
I can accept the potential hypothetical that those guys maybe would have been worse had they stayed with PHI, but then you would have to accept the potential hypothetical that those guys maybe would have been better had they stayed with PHI. The point is, none of us really know how the future would have played out. There are a lot of what ifs & hypotheticals on both sides of this argument when attempting to dip into the future and project what would have been. My post attempted to stick to the facts which is to describe the roster and picks Hinkie had right up until he left. Nothing more, nothing less.
EDIT: Even if you would like to remove Grant, Wood, & Holmes entirely from the equation (although I disagree with that take), you're still left with a solid core of Embiid, Simmons, Covington, Saric, Noel, Okafor, 24th pick (2016), 26th pick (2016), 3rd pick (2017), & 2019 SAC 1st (Unprotected). It's difficult to fully grade the job he did because he didn't get a chance to finish what he started.
I can accept the potential hypothetical that those guys maybe would have been worse had they stayed with PHI, but then you would have to accept the potential hypothetical that those guys maybe would have been better had they stayed with PHI. The point is, none of us really know how the future would have played out. There are a lot of what ifs & hypotheticals on both sides of this argument when attempting to dip into the future and project what would have been. My post attempted to stick to the facts which is to describe the roster and picks Hinkie had right up until he left. Nothing more, nothing less.
EDIT: Even if you would like to remove Grant, Wood, & Holmes entirely from the equation (although I disagree with that take), you're still left with a solid core of Embiid, Simmons, Covington, Saric, Noel, Okafor, 24th pick (2016), 26th pick (2016), 3rd pick (2017), & 2019 SAC 1st (Unprotected). It's difficult to fully grade the job he did because he didn't get a chance to finish what he started.
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Harrison Barnes for Turner.
Works against the cap. Carlisle had Barnes in Dallas and it allows the Pacers to retool around Sabonis without going to full rebuild mode (something their owner reportedly refuses to even consider). Obviously there'd be more pieces changing hands in any sort of trade be it picks or another asset.
So you get
Turner/Holmes/TT/Len
Bagley/Metu
Brown/Harkless/TD
Haliburton/Buddy/
Davion
You'd really be banking on one of Haliburton or Davion making a leap but if they did, that could be a semi-successful core in a year or two. If they don't make a leap then you're probably back at where we are right now in a few seasons but with potentially less draft assets to work with.
The Pacers wind up with
Sabonis
Barnes
Duarte
Levert
Brogdan.
They could probably then move LeVert for another piece be it win now or future assets.
Boston would be at
Horford
Williams
Tatum
Smart
Fox
which might work better for them than their current mess of a team does. (I still think Williams at the 5 and Tatum at the 4 works far better for them than the big frontline they've been running the entire season but I'm not sure anyone's willing to take Horford off their hands for anything useful in return)
Works against the cap. Carlisle had Barnes in Dallas and it allows the Pacers to retool around Sabonis without going to full rebuild mode (something their owner reportedly refuses to even consider). Obviously there'd be more pieces changing hands in any sort of trade be it picks or another asset.
So you get
Turner/Holmes/TT/Len
Bagley/Metu
Brown/Harkless/TD
Haliburton/Buddy/
Davion
You'd really be banking on one of Haliburton or Davion making a leap but if they did, that could be a semi-successful core in a year or two. If they don't make a leap then you're probably back at where we are right now in a few seasons but with potentially less draft assets to work with.
The Pacers wind up with
Sabonis
Barnes
Duarte
Levert
Brogdan.
They could probably then move LeVert for another piece be it win now or future assets.
Boston would be at
Horford
Williams
Tatum
Smart
Fox
which might work better for them than their current mess of a team does. (I still think Williams at the 5 and Tatum at the 4 works far better for them than the big frontline they've been running the entire season but I'm not sure anyone's willing to take Horford off their hands for anything useful in return)
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