BREAKING (not really) NEWS: Kings open for business in the offseason

[pdxKingsFan]

Haven't most of his injuries been fingers and toes? His injury history is very troubling but it's also not something you would think is career threatening if he can stop getting hurt and put it together. I am not sure we'd have to pay him that much no matter how he does, he's not the kind of player that gets a max deal even if he hits all his targets. Low 20s best case.

This is one area that letting Bogi walk could pay future dividends. Nobody is going to give Bagley a ridiculous contract just to cap tie us.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Would that really be the best case scenario for the kings?

Its the kings! Heres the way that scenario would turn out. Bagley somehow stays healthy. He balls out. The kings don't trade him, cause you know thats not what they would do. They would max him out. And then he would get hurt the following season, or go back to normal Bagley. #Kangz

With my 2nd sentence being exclusive with the 1st, yes, I believe it is the best case scenario.

However the picture you painted would be the worst case scenario.

I just don’t see any justification for Bagley returning beyond his rookie contract at the salary he and his agent are going to demand. He’s not worth it nor has he earned it.

That said, it seems to me Bagley doesn’t want the KINGS regardless. Which is hilarious to me because they’ve handled him with extreme care and he still can’t stay healthy. Not their fault. Besides no one else on the team has the same issues.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

That said, it seems to me Bagley doesn’t want the KINGS regardless. Which is hilarious to me because they’ve handled him with extreme care and he still can’t stay healthy. Not their fault. Besides no one else on the team has the same issues.

He deserves Philly or Boston or NY.

 

[ESP47]

This Bagley thing, talking future all star and big contracts, it's seriously the one thing on this board that baffles me the most. He's done nothing to even remotely get himself into a conversation like that. He's essentially on the same trajectory as Derrick Williams and Ben McLemore. He hasn't even done enough to earn 1/3 of the money he's already made in the NBA and we're talking offering a new contract that's worth more than the current one that is a huge overpay?

Since his rookie season, his scoring, FG%, rebounding, assists, steals, turnovers, defense and fouls are all roughly the same.

His 3pt% has improved.

His blocks and FT% have gone down.

So what is the indicator here that you guys see that says he's going to surely break out soon?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I don't think he is going to break out and earn a big contract this year. But he might stay healthy and start making progress. He's still young and we see with guys like Christian Wood that many big men struggle and then when they get to be 25 or 26 they break out. So I just think our best bet is re-signing him at the market rate next year unless some other team wants to get stupid and overpay him.

If the best we can get is 2 second rounders I'd rather we just let him walk after one more season.

 

[Tetsujin]

The ultimate irony of guys like Derrick Williams, Michael Beasley is that they'd still be second overall picks in the modern NBA and go on to long fruitful careers as Marcus Morris-esque big wings.

 

[funkykingston]

IMO the best case scenario for the KINGS and MB3 are for him to remain healthy and have a breakout season. Then they trade him for whatever they can get.

I've said this before but there really aren't any best case scenarios with Bagley. His rookie contract is up at the end of next season and he's a free agent.

• If the Kings trade him this summer they'll get very little in return because Bagley hasn't been able to stay healthy or develop
• If he plays really well and the Kings don't trade him before the in-season deadline, they have to decide whether to re-sign him (or more likely whether to match another team's offer) or lose him for nothing
• If he plays really well and the Kings trade him at the deadline, they won't get fair value because of (a) his injury history & lack of consistent production before a contract year and (b) the fact that he'll be a restricted free agent for his new team who will face the same issue the Kings would in my first scenario.
• If he plays poorly (or gets hurt again) there's no trade value at the deadline and he walks at the end of the season. Some team gives him a small contract based on what potential he may have left and the Kings get nothing for the #2 pick in a loaded draft.

Honestly, there's very little value in a traditional PF in today's NBA. If there isn't a good deal to move Bagley this summer I'd say let Holmes walk and start Bagley at center and challenge him to be a better defender, screen setter, and rebounder. That's the moonshot of maximizing Bagley's potential now. Make him the starting five and see if it works. If not you cut ties and let him walk. It's at least worth a try vs trying to squeeze some other team for a pair of 2nd rounders, or the type of journey man player on a 1 or 2 year deal that Marvin might fetch at this point.

 

[ESP47]

I don't think he is going to break out and earn a big contract this year. But he might stay healthy and start making progress. He's still young and we see with guys like Christian Wood that many big men struggle and then when they get to be 25 or 26 they break out. So I just think our best bet is re-signing him at the market rate next year unless some other team wants to get stupid and overpay him.

If the best we can get is 2 second rounders I'd rather we just let him walk after one more season.

If he continues to play the way he has, his market rate is basically the minimum. I think he has just as good of a shot at finding himself in the euro league as he does becoming a real rotational player in the NBA that plays minutes because he contributes to winning, not merely because some GM thinks he has future potential.

If you were the GM of any team in the NBA, what would you trade for Bagley?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Honestly, there's very little value in a traditional PF in today's NBA. If there isn't a good deal to move Bagley this summer I'd say let Holmes walk and start Bagley at center and challenge him to be a better defender, screen setter, and rebounder. That's the moonshot of maximizing Bagley's potential now. Make him the starting five and see if it works. If not you cut ties and let him walk. It's at least worth a try vs trying to squeeze some other team for a pair of 2nd rounders, or the type of journey man player on a 1 or 2 year deal that Marvin might fetch at this point.

This is what I think the only path forward is. Unless there's a trade package that can get us real picks.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If he continues to play the way he has, his market rate is basically the minimum. I think he has just as good of a shot at finding himself in the euro league as he does becoming a real rotational player in the NBA that plays minutes because he contributes to winning, not merely because some GM thinks he has future potential.

If you were the GM of any team in the NBA, what would you trade for Bagley?

He hasn't played. That's the problem. He's missed over half of his games. And the team hasn't shown any faith he can stay on the court to put him in position to succeed. It's pretty clear he was a terrible pick at #2 even without Luka so obviously the choice, but the notion that he has no future if he stays healthy is equally confounding.

 

[sactowndog]

Haven't most of his injuries been fingers and toes? His injury history is very troubling but it's also not something you would think is career threatening if he can stop getting hurt and put it together. I am not sure we'd have to pay him that much no matter how he does, he's not the kind of player that gets a max deal even if he hits all his targets. Low 20s best case.

This is one area that letting Bogi walk could pay future dividends. Nobody is going to give Bagley a ridiculous contract just to cap tie us.

no the worst scenario is he takes the qualifying offer for 14M plays for one year at the high rate and then leaves in free agency.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

no the worst scenario is he takes the qualifying offer for 14M plays for one year at the high rate and then leaves in free agency.

why do all the scenarios where he isn't out of the league yesterday always involve poor play here and a big payday elsewhere? if he does that and balls out we could trade him somewhere, the new team would have his Bird rights as part of the deal, no?

the main thing here is that he apparently is at an all time low in value. unless we want to just spite him and ship him to a market like Philly and let him get roasted, there is nothing to gain from moving him for second rounders and everything to lose if he shows up ready to play this season.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Also hypothetically, let's say we traded him to OKC for 16 and 18. Apparently that's "super" for us? But OKC still has the 6 pick, Kemba coming in, and could certainly spend the year evaluating Bagley at all spots/working around him, and presumably being able to retain him at fair cost if they like him. I assume OKC in the middle of a rebuild is also going to be about as safe a media market outside Sac as he can get.

Let's say we get two guys we like right now at 9 at 16 and 18. For the sake of argument say Sengen and Moody. We also get Jalen Johnson at 9. Everyone is excited, but none of these guys pan out any better than Bagley by year 3 and we let 2 of them go. While a 26 year old Bagley has grown into his body and signed an extension at OKC for 18 mil per and is secure for another 2 years and contributing 20 and 10.

How'd that work out? Is that unrealistic (other than apparently Bagley isn't worth those two picks?)?

 

[Turgenev]

If he continues to play the way he has, his market rate is basically the minimum. I think he has just as good of a shot at finding himself in the euro league as he does becoming a real rotational player in the NBA that plays minutes because he contributes to winning, not merely because some GM thinks he has future potential.

If you were the GM of any team in the NBA, what would you trade for Bagley?

Detroit obviously said no to Saddiq Bey, a mid-first round pick who looked good in his first year. But that gives you some idea of what Monte would like in return. Sure, there are some teams that will see a player that has been injured for most of his three years in the NBA, that has not yet shown good defensive awareness, and who will be unwilling to part with anything of value for him. But I think it is a mistake to assume all GM’s are as cynical as Kings Fans. It is possible that there are some who will see a young player who was the top HS recruit in his class even after reclassifying, whose statistical production as a Duke freshman was close to unprecedented, and a player who was the number 2 pick and made the all-rookie team only a few years ago. I think it’s too much to hope that a team in need of a power forward (e.g., San Antonio or Charlotte) would give up their pick. I also doubt that the Kings would come close to considering the two second round picks suggested by JJ (who is yet to show himself as a good pulse taker for the Kings). Pragmatically, it is possible that a team like OKC or Houston, who want talent and have multiple first round picks, are willing to part with a pick (or two) for MBIII.

 

[Turgenev]

Also hypothetically, let's say we traded him to OKC for 16 and 18. Apparently that's "super" for us? But OKC still has the 6 pick, Kemba coming in, and could certainly spend the year evaluating Bagley at all spots/working around him, and presumably being able to retain him at fair cost if they like him. I assume OKC in the middle of a rebuild is also going to be about as safe a media market outside Sac as he can get.

Let's say we get two guys we like right now at 9 at 16 and 18. For the sake of argument say Sengen and Moody. We also get Jalen Johnson at 9. Everyone is excited, but none of these guys pan out any better than Bagley by year 3 and we let 2 of them go. While a 26 year old Bagley has grown into his body and signed an extension at OKC for 18 mil per and is secure for another 2 years and contributing 20 and 10.

How'd that work out? Is that unrealistic (other than apparently Bagley isn't worth those two picks?)?

I don't think MBIII for 16 is unrealistic and think it would work for both teams and MBIII. Two picks... probably a little bit.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I don't think MBIII for 16 is unrealistic and think it would work for both teams and MBIII. Two picks... probably a little bit.

Let's say we gave them Buddy too. And took back a bad contract.

 

[Turgenev]

Let's say we gave them Buddy too. And took back a bad contract.

If we keep it simple and just did an MBIII for a single pick, I think Sengun - whose offensive rebounding and interior scoring - would replace what MBIII promised. I would also like Garuba, who, unlike MBIII, plays good defense, is a rotation player on a good team, and has hit 80% of his FT's + 37% of his 3's since April.

 

[49to5er]

How about Buddy and Bagley to the Warriors for 14? Warriors need to win now and those two pieces help them get better right away and they still Wiseman and 7 to trade for another player...

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If we keep it simple and just did an MBIII for a single pick, I think Sengun - whose offensive rebounding and interior scoring - would replace what MBIII promised. I would also like Garuba, who, unlike MBIII, plays good defense, is a rotation player on a good team, and has hit 80% of his FT's + 37% of his 3's since April.

It feels like a huge L and yet I'll take it. I think Bagley could actually succeed in OKC, or OKC would at least be in position to flip him for assets later. Hopefully to a huge market with jerk fans

 

[burekijogurt]

There probably is no way to make the money work, but I wonder if the Nuggets would give MPJ for Buddy and Barnes. I think Buddy and Barnes could help them win now. MPJ does not seem to fit there with Murray and Jokic even though it seems like he should. chemistry probably. maybe Aaron Gordon has a monster contract.

 

[funkykingston]

There probably is no way to make the money work, but I wonder if the Nuggets would give MPJ for Buddy and Barnes. I think Buddy and Barnes could help them win now. MPJ does not seem to fit there with Murray and Jokic even though it seems like he should. chemistry probably. maybe Aaron Gordon has a monster contract.

I'd love to get MPJ (and I hoped the Kings would trade for a late lottery pick as he slipped on draft night) but there's no way the Nuggets deal him for Buddy & Barnes.

The first issue is that the money doesn't work. But more importantly, Porter Jr is cementing his place as the. Nuggets 3rd star. I don't see them dealing that for a couple above average role players on expensive contracts.

 

[LPKingsFan]

I also doubt that the Kings would come close to considering the two second round picks suggested by JJ (who is yet to show himself as a good pulse taker for the Kings). Pragmatically, it is possible that a team like OKC or Houston, who want talent and have multiple first round picks, are willing to part with a pick (or two) for MBIII.

Yeah, Jones's full quote was something more along the lines of: the Kings never received an offer that would make it work for them, and an opposing executive said all they'd consider offering for Bagley was two second round picks. So, at least it does seem that the team isn't willing to sell him at rock bottom prices.

I agree, though, that it's reasonable to suspect whether Houston or OKC may have interest. After all, are they each really planning to develop three rookies at once (and that's before you get to second rounders)? They might be keen on taking a swing with Bagley instead--the question is him is health (and defensive instincts) more than talent.

 

[ESP47]

Detroit obviously said no to Saddiq Bey, a mid-first round pick who looked good in his first year. But that gives you some idea of what Monte would like in return. Sure, there are some teams that will see a player that has been injured for most of his three years in the NBA, that has not yet shown good defensive awareness, and who will be unwilling to part with anything of value for him. But I think it is a mistake to assume all GM’s are as cynical as Kings Fans. It is possible that there are some who will see a young player who was the top HS recruit in his class even after reclassifying, whose statistical production as a Duke freshman was close to unprecedented, and a player who was the number 2 pick and made the all-rookie team only a few years ago. I think it’s too much to hope that a team in need of a power forward (e.g., San Antonio or Charlotte) would give up their pick. I also doubt that the Kings would come close to considering the two second round picks suggested by JJ (who is yet to show himself as a good pulse taker for the Kings). Pragmatically, it is possible that a team like OKC or Houston, who want talent and have multiple first round picks, are willing to part with a pick (or two) for MBIII.

Maybe I'm on an island here but I think a team would be crazy to offer the Kings a first rounder for him.

I just don't think people realize how little value big men who don't play defense have. Very few contribute to winning and even fewer actually win enough to make noise in the playoffs. It's kind of like a QB who can run but can't pass. You can only go so far with them.

I'd hold out longer if it was something like shooting because players can develop a shot later in their careers but big men who are near the bottom of the league in defense and show almost no flashes of being able to play defense on top of that, don't normally turn into adequate defenders. It's like wishing he will develop this skill he's never had out of thin air. It's like asking Buddy to all the sudden get to the line 5 times a game when he's shown zero ability to be able to do that.

 

[mac]

I, for one, am really looking forward to selling low on Bagley and watching him become an all-star for another team.

Meh you somewhat said the same thing about WCS. Not that I'm saying you'll be wrong in this case, or that I disagree with the sentiment, but point is it's far from a sure fire.

 

[mac]

Yes, it is.



"Better" than terrible does not necessarily mean "good".

Thought Kings fans were willing to trade Buddy for a bag of chips?

 

[ockingsfan]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1410272036773974025

Perfect for the Lakers. I just threw up a little in my mouth. Why don't we throw in Fox for good measure. Yuck!

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Meh you somewhat said the same thing about WCS. Not that I'm saying you'll be wrong in this case, or that I disagree with the sentiment, but point is it's far from a sure fire.

Did I? I said WCS was going to get a contract in the $15M-20M range annually, if I recall. I mean, he had just put up a nice season in the advanced stats and dropped 6.7 WS, you figure an athletic big man like that gets paid. I turned out to be wrong, but I don't recall saying he was going to be an all-star anywhere, or that he even had a chance of being an all-star anywhere. I suppose I had too much faith that his athletic gifts would overcome the stuff between his ears, but I don't remember saying he was an all-star. Starter, sure. I'm not sure I would have said all-star.

I would also want to be clear that I don't think Bagley is a sure-fire future all-star. Can he get there? Yes, because he has natural go-to scoring talent, he's becoming a threat from three, and I think he has the offensive mentality to go with it - if he keeps his head in the game. Defense may be an issue, but that's rarely held back a guy from being an all-star.

So what I'm saying is not that he'll be a sure-fire all-star, but rather that the we-drop-him-he-becomes-an-all-star-elsewhere future is exactly the one I DON'T want to see. I'm in the camp that we should keep him this year and see how he pans out, and then decide at the end of the year what sort of contract, if any, to offer him. When I look at the following:

• Obvious offensive talent
• Development time in his first three years severely curtailed by non-chronic injuries
• Is still only 22, has literally played in 7 games as a 22 year old
• Big men often take a long time to develop (e.g. Christian Wood, who didn't break out until age 25)

I can't imagine why we'd want to cut him loose, or trade him for peanuts. We're Sacramento, if we don't get our talent through the draft, we aren't going to get it anywhere. And we're going to get impatient with a guy who was clearly a top-5 pick who has the talent and still has a *chance* to develop into a star because there was a better guy available who we didn't draft and the dude's dad whines on Twitter? This does not at all look to me like the way to build a winning franchise in a small market.

It's true that Bagley is still a lottery ticket in a way that Luka is not. So what? We don't have Luka. Dumping Bagley doesn't magically get Luka onto our roster. We have to move forward with the team we have. So Bagley is a lottery ticket, yes, but I believe he's a much better lottery ticket than say the #22 pick and THT, and he's a far, far better lottery ticket than two second round picks. We should take our chance on the good lottery ticket. If it doesn't pan out, hey, fine, whatever. At least we gave it a shot. Giving away the good lottery ticket for peanuts because it's not a sure thing and then watching that lottery ticket hit for the team that swindled us? That's what we can't afford.

 

[kingsboi]

I think this off season will be one of the more entertaining ones in recent memory just because Monte seems like a proactive GM that will be looking to make moves for the betterment of the team rather than to make moves that don't tilt the scale in one direction or another. Kings aren't in a position where they have to get rid of Buddy or Bagley for pennies on the dollar, it's perfectly fine to make calls and see what those players can net you in return but by no means do I see Monte shipping them because while Bagley's trade value may not be that high at the moment, I said it in another thread that he's worth keeping around for the time being because you won't get equal value.

 

[KingsCitizen]

Bagley/Wright/#9th pick for Simmons
That's something Philly could bite. Delon's game, could give them a playmaker and Bagley could give them a big body. Buddy won't make sense for Philly because they already got Seth Curry with a better contract.

So if Buddy stays and we got Simmons, I think Kings can run because we play Barnes at PF often.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Bagley/Wright/#9th pick for Simmons
That's something Philly could bite. Delon's game, could give them a playmaker and Bagley could give them a big body. Buddy won't make sense for Philly because they already got Seth Curry with a better contract.

So if Buddy stays and we got Simmons, I think Kings can run because we play Barnes at PF often.

If we are suggesting completely unrealistic scenarios, I would rather they throw in Embiid and we keep our pick.