Letting Holmes walk.

[Capt. Factorial]

as you get later sure but I would still say good small market teams find cheap role players in round 2.

then you have the 2014 draft:
33 Joe Harris
38 Spencer Dinwiddie
39 Jeremi Grant
41 Nikola Jokic
45 Dwight Powell
46 Jordan Clarkson

pretty amazing second round draft. It could be better than some years first round.

Probably not better than any first round. After 7 years, there are only 7 guys in that second round still in the NBA (Glenn Robinson III is the other), and the entire round has been worth about 185 win shares - almost all from those 7 guys. I'd figure that by the end of it, that round probably gets up to 300 win shares, but probably doesn't make 400. A typical first round gets you to 300 win shares with its top 3-4 players once everybody's career is over. Even the notoriously bad 2000 draft has about 520 win shares in the first round. I went back from 2014 all the way to 1990 eyeballing it and there didn't look to be any first rounds worse than 2000. So, I mean, it was a great second round, but it's probably not better than even the worst first round.

 

[Groovygreg]

Point out where I have said Monte is a poor drafter. I haven’t. My issues with Monte are not committing to a direction and losing Bogi for nothing. He may potentially also lose Holmes for nothing but we don’t know that for sure.

it is way to early to judge Monte’s draft acumen. Tillman was an example of a 2nd round pick being a good role player. Full stop.

You are all over the place, and you are inferring things not stated.

My comment specifically addressed your following proclamation: “Good small market teams who maximize the draft find role players with their 2nd round pick”.

That declaration, and your criticism of Monte’s swap of Tillman for Woodard, make it clear that you are unhappy about his handling of 2nd round picks.

That has nothing to do with Bogdanovich.

Stay on point.

 

[sactowndog]

Probably not better than any first round. After 7 years, there are only 7 guys in that second round still in the NBA (Glenn Robinson III is the other), and the entire round has been worth about 185 win shares - almost all from those 7 guys. I'd figure that by the end of it, that round probably gets up to 300 win shares, but probably doesn't make 400. A typical first round gets you to 300 win shares with its top 3-4 players once everybody's career is over. Even the notoriously bad 2000 draft has about 520 win shares in the first round. I went back from 2014 all the way to 1990 eyeballing it and there didn't look to be any first rounds worse than 2000. So, I mean, it was a great second round, but it's probably not better than even the worst first round.

thanks for the research. Yeah the 2000 draft was the one I was thinking of.

that draft had two first round all-stars in Kenyon Martin and Jamal Maglorie. The only player that made an all NBA team was Micheal Redd drafted in the second round (my original point). Hedo leads that class in win shares thanks to Weber and others and goes third in a redraft.

so yeah the 2014 second round has only 8 guys but lets compare

Jokic versus Mike Miller
Jerami Grant versus Hedo T
Joe Harris versus Kenyon Martin
Dwight Powell versus Jamal Crawford
Jordan Clarkson versus Quentin Richardson
Spencer Dinwiddie versus Mo Peterson
Thanasis Ant versus Jamal Magloire
Glenn Robinson versus Darius Miles

if win shares across the class is measured the first round has a built in advantage due to guaranteed contracts. I count 8 players so you might be one short but in an 8 on 8 game I’m not sure which team wins.

 

[sactowndog]

You are all over the place, and you are inferring things not stated.

My comment specifically addressed your following proclamation: “Good small market teams who maximize the draft find role players with their 2nd round pick”.

That declaration, and your criticism of Monte’s swap of Tillman for Woodard, make it clear that you are unhappy about his handling of 2nd round picks.

That has nothing to do with Bogdanovich.

Stay on point.

I am unhappy with losing draft capital and still being out of the playoffs ... yes

am not unhappy with Monte’s drafting.

 

[Groovygreg]

I am unhappy with losing draft capital and still being out of the playoffs ... yes

am not unhappy with Monte’s drafting.

Ok. Fair enough.

Unfortunately, the Kings are in a position where they likely will have to give up more draft capital to extricate themselves from Bagley and/or Buddy.

We have Vlade to thank for that.

 

[sactowndog]

Ok. Fair enough.

Unfortunately, the Kings are in a position where they likely will have to give up more draft capital to extricate themselves from Bagley and/or Buddy.

We have Vlade to thank for that.

Buddy maybe. Bagley is only under contract for next year. He should not cost us any draft capital.

the trade for Wright was not on Vlade. Nor was the trade for TD which could be worth it if we can resign him at a reasonable price.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

thanks for the research. Yeah the 2000 draft was the one I was thinking of.

that draft had two first round all-stars in Kenyon Martin and Jamal Maglorie. The only player that made an all NBA team was Micheal Redd drafted in the second round (my original point). Hedo leads that class in win shares thanks to Weber and others and goes third in a redraft.

so yeah the 2014 second round has only 8 guys but lets compare

Jokic versus Mike Miller
Jerami Grant versus Hedo T
Joe Harris versus Kenyon Martin
Dwight Powell versus Jamal Crawford
Jordan Clarkson versus Quentin Richardson
Spencer Dinwiddie versus Mo Peterson
Thanasis Ant versus Jamal Magloire
Glenn Robinson versus Darius Miles

if win shares across the class is measured the first round has a built in advantage due to guaranteed contracts. I count 8 players so you might be one short but in an 8 on 8 game I’m not sure which team wins.

Well, when comparing draft classes, I do think that a 30-on-30 game is more appropriate than an 8-on-8 game.

Even so, the only real argument here is probably Jokic. Hedo was a decent bit better than Grant, and Kenyon against Joe Harris is a slaughter in favor of Cincinnati. Crawford is one of the best 6th men ever - placed up against Powell? Not even close. A couple of pushes follow as long as Clarkson and Dinwiddie keep it up for a few more years. But Magloire vs the lesser Antetokounmpo is no match at all. Miles? Not great, but neither has GRIII been great. So 8-on-8, I don't think the 2014 second round beats the 2000 first round. 30-on-30 it's not close.

Not gonna lie, the 2014 second round was great for a second round, but I don't think it can stand against even the weakest first round. And without Jokic, we're not even having the discussion.

 

[sactowndog]

Well, when comparing draft classes, I do think that a 30-on-30 game is more appropriate than an 8-on-8 game.

Even so, the only real argument here is probably Jokic. Hedo was a decent bit better than Grant, and Kenyon against Joe Harris is a slaughter in favor of Cincinnati. Crawford is one of the best 6th men ever - placed up against Powell? Not even close. A couple of pushes follow as long as Clarkson and Dinwiddie keep it up for a few more years. But Magloire vs the lesser Antetokounmpo is no match at all. Miles? Not great, but neither has GRIII been great. So 8-on-8, I don't think the 2014 second round beats the 2000 first round. 30-on-30 it's not close.

Not gonna lie, the 2014 second round was great for a second round, but I don't think it can stand against even the weakest first round. And without Jokic, we're not even having the discussion.

true but not all 30 first round players made it past their 1st guaranteed contract. I think to be fair you have to look at winshares after 4 years when the guaranteed contracts run out.

The story of 2014 isn’t done being written yet either. Grant had a hell of a year in Detroit. I’m not sure I do take Hedo over him. Crawford was a great 6th man but Clarkson may win 6th man of the year.

now granted even looking at win-shares starting 4 years out the first round could or should win but the fact it is even a discussion is remarkable.

 

[ppine]

We know Hield and Bagley can't play defense. Fox is a good defensive player, at times he is great at it. Barnes is good defender. Holmes would have a much easier time on defense if it weren't for having to cover for Hield and Bagley all the time. You let Holmes go and who are you going to replace him with? The Kings have been a revolving door for as long as I have been watching them.

 

[midtowner]

I love Holmes. The person and the player. But if the Kings sign him to more than $12 million/year; it’s a mistake.

If he was worth $20 million/year, the Kings would have been good this year. He’s no Clint Capella.

If he was our first big off the bench, or playing power forward next to Myles Turner - then we’d have something.

 

[ESP47]

I love Holmes. The person and the player. But if the Kings sign him to more than $12 million/year; it’s a mistake.

If he was worth $20 million/year, the Kings would have been good this year. He’s no Clint Capella.

If he was our first big off the bench, or playing power forward next to Myles Turner - then we’d have something.

This is it in a nutshell.

 

[Telemachus]

1) So we are assuming strategically we aren’t shooting for the playoffs and are resetting this year?
2) actually the deal was Snell and Atlanta’s OKC pick which would convert into 2 seconds.

I would have first countered with Huerter and then countered with just the OKC first (which McNair never did). I wouldn’t have needed a deadline as I already decided I wouldn’t match knowing Atlanta has space for a 17M offer. It would be more a discussion of what it was worth to Atlanta to avoid whatever poison pills were in the offer sheet. If Atlanta was unwilling to agree to the OKC first only, I would have matched and tried to move Buddy at the trade deadline.

According to Amick, the were offered their 1st rd.pick (it would turn into 2nd rd picks in 2024 & 2025) and Tony Snell. There were not given the particulars of the contract and given 1 hour to decide. The Kings asked for some of their young players instead (didn't specify who) and Atlanta declined.

 

[sactowndog]

According to Amick, the were offered their 1st rd.pick (it would turn into 2nd rd picks in 2024 & 2025) and Tony Snell. There were not given the particulars of the contract and given 1 hour to decide. The Kings asked for some of their young players instead (didn't specify who) and Atlanta declined.

Right and I would have not hung up the phone and countered with just the first... really 2 rd picks. As an aside Snell as it turns out has played really well this year shooting almost 50% from 3.

 

[cwebb2002]

Honestly I think they should put a 4yr/$40M offersheat up using MLE. Would go as high as 12.5/yr

I also would love to see a trade sending Bagley and Buddy to the pacers for Myles Turner and a solid bench type player like Justin Holiday and Aaron Holiday. I think Turner and Justin will make up for the lost shooting from Buddy and the Holiday brothers will deepen the bench with NBA Caliber role players and deep benchers unlike the motley crew of players we have seen at the mid to end of the bench in recent years. Turner will bring much needed defensive chops and can play next to or in front of holmes if he can be resigned. Turner will also be able to stretch the floor as well as any center. He will allow holmes to cover a PF or smaller centers while he patrols the paint. He and holmes in PNR with Fox and Hali could be devastating.

The turner sabonis combo never gelled. Bagley may be a better fit next to Sabonis as he is a true PF. He and Buddy are also strong offensive players giving the pacers a multitude of scoring options.

For the kings this is also predicated on keeping TD.

Fox/Wright/AHoliday
Hali/TD/JHoliday
Barnes/JHoliday/ woodard
Turner/Metu
Holmes/Jones

I think this will be a much more balanced and defensively sound line up and you have a number of scoring sources. Any of the starting 5 can go get 20+pts. TD, J Holiday, and DW can get 10-15 on any given night. Metu is good for 8-12 on most nights and the outside shooting is very balanced (with Hali, DW, TD, JHoliday, and Barnes shooting near or above 40% from 3 and AHoliday and Metu and turner shooting 37%, 35% and 35% from 3 respectively) and you get a legit rim protector (top 1-3 in the league). This lineup is legitimately more deep with real NBA quality talen than any kings team in the last decade.

This way the kings also have money Holmes (MLE) and only tie up 1.8QO on TD. With TD they have time on their side. AND the above trade gices you some protection should you lose holmes and you can use your MLE for other pieces.

 

[midtowner]

I like the proposal. But the Kings would have to include their lotto pick to get the trade done. And the Pacers still might pass.

 

[ockingsfan]

Honestly I think they should put a 4yr/$40M offersheat up using MLE. Would go as high as 12.5/yr

I also would love to see a trade sending Bagley and Buddy to the pacers for Myles Turner and a solid bench type player like Justin Holiday and Aaron Holiday. I think Turner and Justin will make up for the lost shooting from Buddy and the Holiday brothers will deepen the bench with NBA Caliber role players and deep benchers unlike the motley crew of players we have seen at the mid to end of the bench in recent years. Turner will bring much needed defensive chops and can play next to or in front of holmes if he can be resigned. Turner will also be able to stretch the floor as well as any center. He will allow holmes to cover a PF or smaller centers while he patrols the paint. He and holmes in PNR with Fox and Hali could be devastating.

The turner sabonis combo never gelled. Bagley may be a better fit next to Sabonis as he is a true PF. He and Buddy are also strong offensive players giving the pacers a multitude of scoring options.

For the kings this is also predicated on keeping TD.

Fox/Wright/AHoliday
Hali/TD/JHoliday
Barnes/JHoliday/ woodard
Turner/Metu
Holmes/Jones

I think this will be a much more balanced and defensively sound line up and you have a number of scoring sources. Any of the starting 5 can go get 20+pts. TD, J Holiday, and DW can get 10-15 on any given night. Metu is good for 8-12 on most nights and the outside shooting is very balanced (with Hali, DW, TD, JHoliday, and Barnes shooting near or above 40% from 3 and AHoliday and Metu and turner shooting 37%, 35% and 35% from 3 respectively) and you get a legit rim protector (top 1-3 in the league). This lineup is legitimately more deep with real NBA quality talen than any kings team in the last decade.

This way the kings also have money Holmes (MLE) and only tie up 1.8QO on TD. With TD they have time on their side. AND the above trade gices you some protection should you lose holmes and you can use your MLE for other pieces.

Myles Turner would be the ideal target for the Kings, but I think they would target Harrison Barnes in a trade, not Buddy. They have LeVert, so Buddy would be redundant. Barnes could be a 4/5 for Indiana.

I think Buddy could be a trade target for Phily or Milwaukee. A Buddy and Bagley trade for Tobias Harris?

PF: Turner / Metu
SF: Harris / Harkless
C: Holmes / Jones
SG: Haliburton / TD
PG: Fox / Wright

 

[cwebb2002]

Myles Turner would be the ideal target for the Kings, but I think they would target Harrison Barnes in a trade, not Buddy. They have LeVert, so Buddy would be redundant. Barnes could be a 4/5 for Indiana.

I think Buddy could be a trade target for Phily or Milwaukee. A Buddy and Bagley trade for Tobias Harris?

PF: Turner / Metu
SF: Harris / Harkless
C: Holmes / Jones
SG: Haliburton / TD
PG: Fox / Wright

If you can pull both trades, i think that could catapult the kings up into the middle of the pack in the west. The numbers work. You would likely need to send a pick to Indiana and I try to get sumner as your salary filler to match them. Buddy seems to be a bad contract so you may need to send a first (or at least offer a pick swap) for Harris as well. But think I'd do it. Harris does seem to have significantly improved on defense. The only issue will be bench depth would be better in the other trade, but starting 5 definitely better with these two trades.

 

[steelevt]

If you can pull both trades, i think that could catapult the kings up into the middle of the pack in the west. The numbers work. You would likely need to send a pick to Indiana and I try to get sumner as your salary filler to match them. Buddy seems to be a bad contract so you may need to send a first (or at least offer a pick swap) for Harris as well. But think I'd do it. Harris does seem to have significantly improved on defense. The only issue will be bench depth would be better in the other trade, but starting 5 definitely better with these two trades.

Buddy and a first for Harris who’s getting paid $36 $37.5 and $39 million the next few years? No thank you.

 

[King Baller]

Tobias Harris has always played well for Doc Rivers. He did when both were Clippers and now as 76ers.

 

[kb02]

I love Holmes. The person and the player. But if the Kings sign him to more than $12 million/year; it’s a mistake.

If he was worth $20 million/year, the Kings would have been good this year. He’s no Clint Capella.

If he was our first big off the bench, or playing power forward next to Myles Turner - then we’d have something.

He’s a bench big. Should be in that Funderburke role for the Kings. Opposing teams sit on that push shot and dude becomes ineffective. On defense, he simply doesn’t alter shots like Whiteside, Len...

if he gets more than $10m per yr, let him walk.

 

[Telemachus]

He’s a bench big. Should be in that Funderburke role for the Kings. Opposing teams sit on that push shot and dude becomes ineffective. On defense, he simply doesn’t alter shots like Whiteside, Len...

if he gets more than $10m per yr, let him walk.

While I think Holmes is better than you give him credit for, I agree with your conclusion. Holmes isn't worth the $20 million a year his agent is seeking. If he gets an offer for more than $10 - $12 million a year, then let him go.

 

[SacTownKid]

I was looking through some FA articles and I noticed Holmes in the upper ranks on a few of them. The cat might be out of the bag on him. He was rated in a range that if that's got any legs to it he's going to have significant interest. And he should TBH.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

While I think Holmes is better than you give him credit for, I agree with your conclusion. Holmes isn't worth the $20 million a year his agent is seeking. If he gets an offer for more than $10 - $12 million a year, then let him go.

If he gets offered more than $10-12M per year, we can't offer an equivalent contract without clearing salary, and it becomes "hometown discount" time.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If he gets offered more than $10-12M per year, we can't offer an equivalent contract without clearing salary, and it becomes "hometown discount" time.

I don't want to pay more than that so we'll cross our fingers. It would be a shame if we lose him over $1mil per though.

 

[The_Jamal]

He’s a bench big. Should be in that Funderburke role for the Kings. Opposing teams sit on that push shot and dude becomes ineffective. On defense, he simply doesn’t alter shots like Whiteside, Len...

if he gets more than $10m per yr, let him walk.

LOL. Some of the "takes" on this site are so far gone out of reality, it's mind-blowing.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

LOL. Some of the "takes" on this site are so far gone out of reality, it's mind-blowing.

Exactly right.

btw, I’ve never seen anyone make such a high volume of “push” shots that defenses are allegedly expecting and waiting for.

 

[kb02]

Exactly right.

btw, I’ve never seen anyone make such a high volume of “push” shots that defenses are allegedly expecting and waiting for.

LOL. Some of the "takes" on this site are so far gone out of reality, it's mind-blowing.

Mind blowing? Been saying the same thing all year. None of this is new. He’s limited. So lolzzzz.

If the Kings start him, you need elite perimeter defending wings. Otherwise it’ll be what it was last year—a turnstile to the hoop. While Holmes gets some flashy off the ball blocks, he provides no shot altering presence.

On offense, teams sat in that mid range area and dared him to shoot a traditional jump shot, pass, or drive. He couldn’t do any of that.

He should be operating as a bench big, who is worth about $10m. I like him, but not for anymore than that. Should’ve traded him and Barnes and Buddy last year.

 

[Tetsujin]

LOL. Some of the "takes" on this site are so far gone out of reality, it's mind-blowing.

The main thing to take away from that post is that the OP apparently would've been okay with Funderburke getting 10 mil a year

 

[cwebb2002]

So many strange assessments of players. Claiming Barnes is an average at best SF while boston is trying to give up Nesmith and a 1st for him. Putting down holmes while other teams are salivating to sign him. Being happy to let Bogi walk while literally all of Atlanta laughed at the stupidity of our choices, all the way deep into the playoffs with him as their 2nd best player. Letting Isaiah Thomas walk for nothing and he turns into an MVP candidate. The takes here are funny to me. The rest of the league must know something we dont about players, including the ones we want to chase and those we let walk.

 

[kb02]

The main thing to take away from that post is that the OP apparently would've been okay with Funderburke getting 10 mil a year

Cute. I expect better.

Do the math, factor in inflation, adjust for the cap increase between 2002 to 2021, bring it back 19 years, and how much would $10m today be in 2002?