Olden Polynice on Marvin Bagley
- Thread starter Fox can't hit 3's or FT's
- Start date
Bagley through 3 games:
72 minutes
43.2% TS
28.4% USG
15.7% TOV
4.3% AST rate
0.6% STL rate
1.1% BLK rate
20.4% TRB rate
.289 FTr
14% 3pt FG with 7 attempts so far
Hard to imagine a worse start on offense for him. The rebounding is tremendous and I actually think the defense has been ok for the most part. Some lapses here and there, but much better than expected. Offensively though, he's been everyone's worst fear: High USG blackhole that doesn't create for others and doesn't space the floor.
72 minutes
43.2% TS
28.4% USG
15.7% TOV
4.3% AST rate
0.6% STL rate
1.1% BLK rate
20.4% TRB rate
.289 FTr
14% 3pt FG with 7 attempts so far
Hard to imagine a worse start on offense for him. The rebounding is tremendous and I actually think the defense has been ok for the most part. Some lapses here and there, but much better than expected. Offensively though, he's been everyone's worst fear: High USG blackhole that doesn't create for others and doesn't space the floor.
It would be hilariously bad to take Bagley over either guy. Clarke is a modern power forward that is very versatile defensively in that he can step out on the perimeter and defend and also provide some rim protection. He’s also very good offensively in that he knows his role and excels finishing around the hoop, and doesn’t stall out the offense trying to create. He’s also a developing shooter.
Mitchell is like the ideal center. Only looks to flush easy dunks and is a serious rim protector. A perfect guy to play 25 minutes and serious value as a second round pick.
Mitchell is at .221 winshares per 48 which is actually elite, and impressive being that he plays for the lowly Knicks.
Mitchell is like the ideal center. Only looks to flush easy dunks and is a serious rim protector. A perfect guy to play 25 minutes and serious value as a second round pick.
Mitchell is at .221 winshares per 48 which is actually elite, and impressive being that he plays for the lowly Knicks.
Mitchell Robinson---> https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/robinmi01.html
I went back tonight and watched some of Bagley's college tape. I hadn't seen it in awhile and was hoping for a reminder as to why he was picked so high. Granted, these were just highlights not full games, but I saw a lot of what we are seeing now from Marv. Rebounds, put backs, the occasional smooth post move, a couple wild takes at the rim and a 3 ball sprinkled in here and there. Nothing that really stands out for a big in the modern game.
This is where player development is crucial. What direction does Bags go in? Should he just double down on what he is good at now? Put all of his energy into crashing the boards, put backs. Should he be putting all of his energy into becoming a 33%+ three point shooter and figure out free throws?
I honestly don't know what he should do to maximize his talents. I don't know if Marvin knows either.
This is where player development is crucial. What direction does Bags go in? Should he just double down on what he is good at now? Put all of his energy into crashing the boards, put backs. Should he be putting all of his energy into becoming a 33%+ three point shooter and figure out free throws?
I honestly don't know what he should do to maximize his talents. I don't know if Marvin knows either.
I think the narrative these days is that he's a rhythm player who if we give him twenty games will get back to the sublime ability he had in... *checks notes* post-ASB of his rookie year...
Because that's never happened before. A rookie showing out post-ASB then proceeding to do nothing. Definitely hasn't happened with several recent draft picks on our team alone...
With that being said, I think his rebounding plummets and his efficiency hikes a little bit. He's had 10 post-ups so far with 1 make, 5 misses, and 4 turnovers (and no fouls drawn). He's inefficient, and posting up is generally a lost cause, but he's not that putrid at it.
I'm predicting something like 14/8 on 45/25/65, the same net negative we all know and tolerate. The only question is if his ridiculous usage rate continues.
Because that's never happened before. A rookie showing out post-ASB then proceeding to do nothing. Definitely hasn't happened with several recent draft picks on our team alone...
With that being said, I think his rebounding plummets and his efficiency hikes a little bit. He's had 10 post-ups so far with 1 make, 5 misses, and 4 turnovers (and no fouls drawn). He's inefficient, and posting up is generally a lost cause, but he's not that putrid at it.
I'm predicting something like 14/8 on 45/25/65, the same net negative we all know and tolerate. The only question is if his ridiculous usage rate continues.
I actually think he's progressing well...relative to my expectations for him this year. But I do agree with the criticism. He continues to be a black hole and his efficiency is pretty horrible--you have to make those free throws, hit 30% from three, and create more positive outcomes when he has touches in the paint (not just scoring, but assisting). Worse he hasn't made many plays outside of the plays that are expected from someone occupying the 4 spot--a double double is pretty much a minimum expectation for a high scoring league these days. He needs to tick up his offensive rebounds, rebounds for boards outside of his area (like Haliburton), blocks, steals, and assists.
For some perspective, Bagley has one block this season so far. Haliburton has two. And it's not just the lack of blocks, its the lack of an interior defensive deterrence. Bags simply does not alter shots, because he plays small (kangerooing on every shot, going for blocks only with his left hand). Ditto for Holmes as an interior defensive deterrence. Why Holmes is starting before Whiteside is pure lunacy.
For some perspective, Bagley has one block this season so far. Haliburton has two. And it's not just the lack of blocks, its the lack of an interior defensive deterrence. Bags simply does not alter shots, because he plays small (kangerooing on every shot, going for blocks only with his left hand). Ditto for Holmes as an interior defensive deterrence. Why Holmes is starting before Whiteside is pure lunacy.
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I’m just looking for the bigger picture with Bagley. A couple years into Fox’s career it was clear what he needed to work on - shooting and impact defense. With Buddy it was ball handling, decision making, passing and defense. He made strides in passing earlier on and at least this year has shown something on defense. I’d like to think Marvin can make improvements in at least one or two categories this year I just don’t know what those are.
I think it's more like ... what exactly would a best-case scenario prime Bagley look like, and how would he fit with Fox? Has he shown potential to be a good shooter? Not really (including from FT) ... Does he set good screens and roll well (and for that matter - is Fox a good PnR PG?)? If I'm being very generous, I'd say prime Bagley looks kinda like a LAC Blake Griffin but with better rebounding and poorer passing. Athletic big who can handle bringing the ball up, not a great shooter but ok, who is going to get most of his buckets around the rim by taking his defender off the dribble and finishing as a roller. Now here's the issue - 1) We don't have Chris Paul running PnR. 2) How would LAC Blake fare in today's NBA?
We're a couple of calender years into Bagley's career, but not a a couple of actual seasons in yet.
Marvin is in a tough spot because of his injuries. He's learning a new position in a make or break year and he knows it. I think that's why you see him rushing some shots in the paint that he hadn't missed in the past.
He's uncomfortable roaming the perimeter right now. If there is something to watch, it's to see if he settles in on the perimeter and knocks down a shot or two a game from there and is able to hang with other 4s on defense. If he can, then you have a big who can switch between the 4 and the 5 and that's something to build on. There has already been some improvement from game 1.
Living and dying with his every game, like some are doing, is just a bit over the top though.
Marvin is in a tough spot because of his injuries. He's learning a new position in a make or break year and he knows it. I think that's why you see him rushing some shots in the paint that he hadn't missed in the past.
He's uncomfortable roaming the perimeter right now. If there is something to watch, it's to see if he settles in on the perimeter and knocks down a shot or two a game from there and is able to hang with other 4s on defense. If he can, then you have a big who can switch between the 4 and the 5 and that's something to build on. There has already been some improvement from game 1.
Living and dying with his every game, like some are doing, is just a bit over the top though.
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But Blake basically had the offense designed around him as a pick and roll big. This is far from what they are doing with Bagley. If you're expecting Bagley to be a star, just like Griffin he needs to be put in situations to draw contact and get to the line. That's the basic rule for all non-physically dominant but super athletic bigs that can face up and play in the triple threat. The lack of spacing is going to effect Bagley even more than Fox at this point and many of the lineups Walton utilizes don't prioritize spacing at all. They are entirely defense based and at the moment the Kings aren't anywhere close to their supposed PACE desires and AGAIN, hovering around the bottom. However, Fox, Bagley, and Holmes have made up for it somewhat with their activity level. In the end teams will still pick Cory Joseph, Bagley, Holmes, and Fox to be the shooters they want shooting from outside and the Kings are giving them that option time and time again.
Bagley looks like a guy that wont contribute to winning. Its his 3rd year. Injuries or not its put up or shut up time and he hasnt put up yet and its not even close. The same exact concerns that were there in pre draft are still there for him: Defensive liability, not creating for others, his post up possessions are below average efficeny and overall his basketball iq doesnt seem to improve (to be fair its probably the hardest thing to improve on) so its starting to be the time when we should probably look to trade him if there is some team out there that still believes in his potential.
As someone who just isn't invested in this team anymore, Ill say the team looks pretty decent. However Fox will not be elite and bagley is gonna be
another frustrating WCS. Dudes a bust. He's gonna end up costing you guys wins.
Fox will be pretty good. Maybe an allstar once or twice and thats pretty dam good for the kings.
Halliburton looks like he has the potential to be what kings fans initially thought fox was gonna be. That kid is wicked smart and plays like a MAN. Hopefully the kings can develop and nurture someone finally........ Good luck kings fans........
another frustrating WCS. Dudes a bust. He's gonna end up costing you guys wins.
Fox will be pretty good. Maybe an allstar once or twice and thats pretty dam good for the kings.
Halliburton looks like he has the potential to be what kings fans initially thought fox was gonna be. That kid is wicked smart and plays like a MAN. Hopefully the kings can develop and nurture someone finally........ Good luck kings fans........
Perfect, so he's got a year where he can watch on the sidelines, study game film, look at schemes, have an asst coach show him the game on cerebral level so that when he comes back the mental side is taken care of and the physical side is what he needs to work on. Basically he was given a year to work on BBIQ while he was injured. Did he come back with a better understanding of the game? Where to be? What the team needs from him? What his guards need from him?
No.
So stop making excuses.
No.
So stop making excuses.