If the Draft Were Today...

[The_Jamal]

It's not a strawman - I'm just saying you're trading a bird in hand for birds that might not even be in the bush. There's no guarantee, and while you're not explicitly saying that there is, your entire logic is built upon it. If I tell you that we will certainly draft a bust at #6, will you make the trade? Can you even give a realistic example of someone we might want to resign but not be able to because of Buddy's contract?

In summary you want to trade Buddy Hield for talent we MIGHT get, to create capspace that we can use to resign our own good players that we MIGHT have, or to make FUTURE trades that MIGHT happen to give us more assets that we MIGHT use to get more talent.

Yes, 10-way trade is an exaggeration. Lower it to four or five if you'd like, still basically never happens. Point is, you deal with way too many hypotheticals, and it's evident in your unrealistic trade scenarios (which I enjoy by the way). It's gold for a video game, I'm just saying it never happens.

No, this is the wrong angle to take. It almost doesn't matter what we get for Hield as long as you're getting a good rebuilding asset (like pick #6) and you start committing to the reset.

The point is this team needs a reset. Fox is young enough at 22 that we can suck for a few years, acquire actual talent and then make a run. Vlade failed his rebuild; this team is capped out and even if you think Bagley can make a complete 180 and star producing like a star, it's hard to see how this team is anything more than a 44-45 win team at best. That's not good enough and the last place we want to be is stuck paying 100+ mil for a core that has 0 shot at winning a title.

It's not about signing guys in FA who may be as good as Hield. It's about gaining cap flexibility, gaining draft picks, accumulating young talent around Fox. In other words, not paying middling FA's a ton of money to make us just good enough to miss out on top lottery talent.

 

[bajaden]

See that’s the problem with building around Fox/Bagley we literally can’t draft another non shooting player to start.

I’m catching up on prospects right now the big wings that defend don’t look to be there where we pick.

I guy I’m liking a lot right now is Aaron Nesmith. Good size 6’6 - 6’10 wingspan and is a deadeye shooter being described as the best shooter in the draft. At his size he can play SG/SF and small ball PF potentially also he’s not a bad defender some teams would go out of there way to target him. He’s also a smart player who consistently moves which is great that’s Steph/Klay like and he has a very good basketball IQ which we need. Weakness, he can’t create for himself or others and he’s not explosive.

https://www.thestepien.com/2020/01/31/aaron-nesmith-scouting-report/

Nesmith is one of my favorite choices and without a doubt the best shooter in the draft. I think I've stated before, I can't remember him missing one open catch and shoot in all the games I watched. And I watched quite a few. But I'm still going to go with Bey. He's a very good defender, and he shot the three well. Plus he's a legit SF at 6'8".

 

[bajaden]

Doncic was still a legit F. He can run point but he's still a wing in the end. We're talking apples and oranges here. This is a PG through and through and one that tends to look better running the offense with the time to do it. Fox is a certain type of player who can be elite with space, but there are areas where you will stretch his versatility. For better or worse. Maybe Fox can transition to be more of a SG but is that best for the franchise and his game?

Why on God's earth would you want to make Fox a SG? He's the fastest PG in the league who has no trouble getting into the lane. That's where a PG is most dangerous. Fox is just a consistent jump shot away for being a superstar. Fox is like Doncic, he's most effective with the ball in his hands.

 

[bajaden]

Not to mention they subsequently replaced Buddy with Joseph at SG for a bit in the most critical stretch of games this franchise has seen in nearly 15 years.

There was a reason for that. Buddy is a terrible defender and he gets way to casual with the ball at times and turns it over. Look, I would love to have him in there for his scoring ability, but there were games where he couldn't shoot a pea into the ocean, and wasn't playing defense either. You can't have a player like that out on the floor in crunch time with the game on the line.

 

[ESP47]

I'm sure there's a more in-depth computation and analysis out there, but I think you can follow the simple argument. Looking at just the #6 pick gives you a reasonable sense of the expected outcome. Sure, we could have picked Devin Booker or Turner over WCS at #6; but we did not. Expanding it past the 6th makes it really complicated, because first of all you could also be picking Mudiay and Kaminski and Stanley Johnson, but by extension you could also pick Hezonja since you have to assume that the "top 5" could also be picking Booker.
It's possible the odds look even worse if you start expanding the selection.

What I'm trying to say is - if the assumption is that we are going to make the optimal pick, then that assumption has to carry to teams picking before us too. And if it's not an assumption, then it's a huge gamble like you said, a gamble where the odds are not close to 50% (a fact which a certain poster keeps masking).

To your question of how to not spin our wheels, I would see what a coach that plays to the strengths of Fox/Bagley/Hield can do. That is also largely predicated on Bagley being healthy. Fact is, we haven't had that, and I don't feel a need to break up this core just yet, especially selling low in a weak draft. You need to get a good sense of that and you need to establish whether the problem is just Buddy or is it also Fox and Bagley. Only then can you truly decide whether you need to blow it up, or just make tweaks to build around Fox or Bagley etc.

Here's another way of looking at it other than trying to get value for value with each trade. Lets say we trade Buddy, Bogdan, Barnes and Holmes for 1st round picks and we draft players that are equivalent to Hezonja, Mudiay, Kaminsky and Paul George. We whiffed on 3 of the 4 picks but now we have George and Fox together and can now start adding the pieces that are easy to find. It's getting the Paul George player that's the nearly impossible part if we just continue riding out this mediocre core.

 

[SacTownKid]

There was a reason for that. Buddy is a terrible defender and he gets way to casual with the ball at times and turns it over. Look, I would love to have him in there for his scoring ability, but there were games where he couldn't shoot a pea into the ocean, and wasn't playing defense either. You can't have a player like that out on the floor in crunch time with the game on the line.

Oh yeah. Good thing we had Joseph to hold Luka to just a minor Wilt performance. Who knows what could have happened otherwise. Use Buddy right, then we'll talk.

 

[bajaden]

I want Bajas input here. Guy knows his college ball

Not sure what your referring to, but if it's about trading Buddy for a higher pick in this draft, my answer is no, I wouldn't do that deal. Buddy has more value than that, especially in this draft. If a draft pick is going to be involved in a Hield trade, then I would want a fairly high pick in next years draft which is loaded with players that are potential stars. How good is that draft going to be, well, right now, the player that's currently ranked around the 12 spot, would likely be the first pick in this years draft.

As for replacing Buddy, we don't need to move up to do that because it's likely that Nesmith will be there at 12, and if not, then Bey will be. I also like the PG Kira Lewis who would be there.

 

[SacTownKid]

Why on God's earth would you want to make Fox a SG? He's the fastest PG in the league who has no trouble getting into the lane. That's where a PG is most dangerous. Fox is just a consistent jump shot away for being a superstar. Fox is like Doncic, he's most effective with the ball in his hands.

I agree with you. That's what I was saying and why someone like Hayes wouldn't be a good fit. To me it's like re-creating the George Hill dynamic with development as your only hope. Remember those 5 apg were supposed to really help too. Fox is what he is and it could work out very, very well for you if you use him for what he is rather than trying to turn into something he's not. Of course, that seems to be the plan under this current coaching staff.

 

[bajaden]

Here's another way of looking at it other than trying to get value for value with each trade. Lets say we trade Buddy, Bogdan, Barnes and Holmes for 1st round picks and we draft players that are equivalent to Hezonja, Mudiay, Kaminsky and Paul George. We whiffed on 3 of the 4 picks but now we have George and Fox together and can now start adding the pieces that are easy to find. It's getting the Paul George player that's the nearly impossible part if we just continue riding out this mediocre core.

Well, you convinced me. I'm heading over to my church and pray that the Clippers trade me George. I want no part of Hezonja or Mudiay. But I can find something for Kaminsky to do.

 

[ESP47]

Well, you convinced me. I'm heading over to my church and pray that the Clippers trade me George. I want no part of Hezonja or Mudiay. But I can find something for Kaminsky to do.

I don't think you read my post correctly.

 

[bajaden]

I agree with you. That's what I was saying and why someone like Hayes wouldn't be a good fit. To me it's like re-creating the George Hill dynamic with development as your only hope. Remember those 5 apg were supposed to really help too. Fox is what he is and it could work out very, very well for you if you use him for what he is rather than trying to turn into something he's not. Of course, that seems to be the plan under this current coaching staff.

Well, I'm not sure who the current management is, and I sure as hell don't know what their plan is. As for drafting another PG, I'd go with Kira Lewis, who I think might turn out to be the best PG in this draft. But mostly because he's lightning quick and is great at getting into the lane. He's a better 3 pt shooter than Fox right now, but we have to see how that would translate to the NBA. Mostly because he pushes the ball. Oh, and he's an excellent defender in college. Wouldn't it be nice to have your backup PG play a similar game as your starting PG?

 

[bajaden]

I don't think you read my post correctly.

Ahhh, sorry! I missed the word equivalent. Been a busy day and the old eye's are tired.

 

[mac]

No, this is the wrong angle to take. It almost doesn't matter what we get for Hield as long as you're getting a good rebuilding asset (like pick #6) and you start committing to the reset.

The point is this team needs a reset. Fox is young enough at 22 that we can suck for a few years, acquire actual talent and then make a run. Vlade failed his rebuild; this team is capped out and even if you think Bagley can make a complete 180 and star producing like a star, it's hard to see how this team is anything more than a 44-45 win team at best. That's not good enough and the last place we want to be is stuck paying 100+ mil for a core that has 0 shot at winning a title.

It's not about signing guys in FA who may be as good as Hield. It's about gaining cap flexibility, gaining draft picks, accumulating young talent around Fox. In other words, not paying middling FA's a ton of money to make us just good enough to miss out on top lottery talent.

I get that. All I'm saying is I don't think your best option/value is getting the #6 in a bad draft where you have no coach and no GM, because I think the #6 pick itself in a week draft is not inherently worth that much. I'd much rather let him play another half or full season, get a better sense of what we have with Fox and Bagley as well and then start the firesale if need be. Cap flexibility etc. are not urgent needs that need to be done before going into the season - you can always make such trades after the draft. I really doubt that Buddy's value is going to fall any lower to be honest. More likely that it goes up under a competent coach.

 

[King Baller]

Many of the same people talking about trading Buddy are those that trashed Walton all season for misusing players.

If the latter is true, then why on earth would anybody want to trade a player proven to be among the very best at a skill that’s become so very important in today’s game? Makes no sense.

Can’t have it both ways either. Either Walton can’t coach and Buddy’s down season was largely caused by that factor or it’s all the player’s fault and Walton isn’t to blame. Which is it? Lol.

Not liking Waltons coaching style and Buddy's lack of defense/ill timed mistakes are not mutually exclusive That said I am fine bringing in the GM who is a result of many interviews of different candidates and letting him make the call on Buddy. Lets hope Vivek is as well

 

[whozit]

I get that. All I'm saying is I don't think your best option/value is getting the #6 in a bad draft where you have no coach and no GM, because I think the #6 pick itself in a week draft is not inherently worth that much. I'd much rather let him play another half or full season, get a better sense of what we have with Fox and Bagley as well and then start the firesale if need be. Cap flexibility etc. are not urgent needs that need to be done before going into the season - you can always make such trades after the draft. I really doubt that Buddy's value is going to fall any lower to be honest. More likely that it goes up under a competent coach.

I like your reasoning and I hope your right about having a competent coach. I am afraid they will squander another year without getting the coach and GM on the same page.

 

[King Baller]

I get that. All I'm saying is I don't think your best option/value is getting the #6 in a bad draft where you have no coach and no GM, because I think the #6 pick itself in a week draft is not inherently worth that much. I'd much rather let him play another half or full season, get a better sense of what we have with Fox and Bagley as well and then start the firesale if need be. Cap flexibility etc. are not urgent needs that need to be done before going into the season - you can always make such trades after the draft. I really doubt that Buddy's value is going to fall any lower to be honest. More likely that it goes up under a competent coach.

Dang, you speak with to much common sense and patience

If Buddy Buckets can be harnessed by the new GM/Coach and forged into the dead eye shooter coming off of screens and being assisted by a player who can draw double teams then I am OK with trying to utilize him going forward.

If we are going to see more of Buddy handling the ball because Walton stubbornly is trying to wedge him in as an ISO player then we might as well move him on.

 

[mac]

Dang, you speak with to much common sense and patience

If Buddy Buckets can be harnessed by the new GM/Coach and forged into the dead eye shooter coming off of screens and being assisted by a player who can draw double teams then I am OK with trying to utilize him going forward.

If we are going to see more of Buddy handling the ball because Walton stubbornly is trying to wedge him in as an ISO player then we might as well move him on.

It's not even really about utilizing him because fair enough I agree that due to his age you shouldn't pin too much hope on having him as a core piece 4-5 years down the road. But you hope that he plays better and you can get more in return, because there's just no rush to trade him now if your timeline is so far down the road.

Year 1: really assess how good Fox, Buddy, Bagley, maybe Bogi can be. Assess if you really want to build around Fox and/or Bagley. If you think Fox is good enough, but needs another star cos Bagley isn't cutting it, then move Bagley and go full-out rebuild mode. Likewise move Buddy who hopefully has higher value being utilized better. Alternatively, maybe you find that we are better than we thought and Walton was really holding everyone back, then maybe your timeline isn't 5 years down the road but you actually need to try to win with tweaks for 2-3 years before you blow it all up. Kinda Blazers-like I would say.

I just think now is not the necessary time to go all-in trade everyone for picks. Give it another season so you have a better idea and also aren't selling when guys are at their lowest value.

 

[bajaden]

Oh yeah. Good thing we had Joseph to hold Luka to just a minor Wilt performance. Who knows what could have happened otherwise. Use Buddy right, then we'll talk.

OK, explain to me how to use Buddy right. I think I've already stated what I think Buddy's strengths are, and what his limitations are. Your above statement is pure nonsense unless you think Buddy is a better defender than Joseph, and if so, I'm done with this conversation. This isn't about Joseph, who I'm not a fan of, it's about Buddy. Buddy is a terrible off ball defender. Half the time he doesn't even know where his man is. Who do you think was guarding Austin Rivers when he was hitting all those three's? Buddy!!!!!!!!

We do agree on one thing, Buddy was misused by Walton.

 

[Joshoua]

Nesmith is one of my favorite choices and without a doubt the best shooter in the draft. I think I've stated before, I can't remember him missing one open catch and shoot in all the games I watched. And I watched quite a few. But I'm still going to go with Bey. He's a very good defender, and he shot the three well. Plus he's a legit SF at 6'8".

I’m reading Bey isn’t a plus athlete that’s not a good sign to be a switchable foward, and I’m not in favor of drafting non shooters.

 

[LPKingsFan]

I’m reading Bey isn’t a plus athlete that’s not a good sign to be a switchable foward, and I’m not in favor of drafting non shooters.

Are you suggesting that Bey is a non shooter? That seems at odds with just about everything I’ve read about him, including bajaden’s post that you are quoting.

 

[Joshoua]

Are you suggesting that Bey is a non shooter? That seems at odds with just about everything I’ve read about him, including bajaden’s post that you are quoting.

You’re right I was thinking about someone else

 

[SacTownKid]

OK, explain to me how to use Buddy right. I think I've already stated what I think Buddy's strengths are, and what his limitations are. Your above statement is pure nonsense unless you think Buddy is a better defender than Joseph, and if so, I'm done with this conversation. This isn't about Joseph, who I'm not a fan of, it's about Buddy. Buddy is a terrible off ball defender. Half the time he doesn't even know where his man is. Who do you think was guarding Austin Rivers when he was hitting all those three's? Buddy!!!!!!!!

We do agree on one thing, Buddy was misused by Walton.

Totally agree. My explanation is the result matters and talent wins. If Joseph could lock down Luka or was on that path and the Kings were winning, fine, but that wasn't the case. So, you're basically playing crap team defense anyway and then replacing Buddy's offensive potential and talent with a career 6 ppg role player playing out of position. That's just plain wrong and the end of that process does nothing but prove it and why I think this is the Kings biggest problem moving forward and why shifting talent, rotations, etc doesn't really matter. I've already posted the links to the 5 man stats multiple times, the team is typically better with Buddy on the floor. The majority of the + net ratings lineups have him in them. And we always hear about Buddy's problems with turnovers. Really? How many did he average per game this year? 3.0 apg to 2.3 TO's. Heck, he's in positive ratio territory, and this is with Buddy being misused and running the offense for most of the year. His bad turnovers look really bad at times and people assume the numbers reflect it when they really don't.

As for defense, Bogdan fell in to the same trap once put in Buddy's place. The corner G's are supposed to help all the way under the rim and look at the ball. Buddy isn't the best help defender for sure, but again, the Kings help system is garbage. The actual results tell the tale as far as how it impacted the team one way or the other. Check this out, here's a list of the 5 man units listed by best defensive rating with a 10 minute and 10 GP qualifier. Do you notice a certain name that appears in the majority of the best units?

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612758&CF=GP*GE*10:MIN*GE*10&sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1

Buddy Hield is in literally 9 out of 10 of these units. He could very well be a weak link but the result again shows he isn't at all the cause of some defensive collapse. Not all on his own at least.

 

[dude12]

OK, explain to me how to use Buddy right. I think I've already stated what I think Buddy's strengths are, and what his limitations are. Your above statement is pure nonsense unless you think Buddy is a better defender than Joseph, and if so, I'm done with this conversation. This isn't about Joseph, who I'm not a fan of, it's about Buddy. Buddy is a terrible off ball defender. Half the time he doesn't even know where his man is. Who do you think was guarding Austin Rivers when he was hitting all those three's? Buddy!!!!!!!!

We do agree on one thing, Buddy was misused by Walton.

Just wanted to point out Buddy being a bad defensive player when the Kings as a whole are horrible defensively is weird. Most of the team is bad on that side of the ball

 

[Hoovtrain]

Not sure what your referring to, but if it's about trading Buddy for a higher pick in this draft, my answer is no, I wouldn't do that deal. Buddy has more value than that, especially in this draft. If a draft pick is going to be involved in a Hield trade, then I would want a fairly high pick in next years draft which is loaded with players that are potential stars. How good is that draft going to be, well, right now, the player that's currently ranked around the 12 spot, would likely be the first pick in this years draft.

As for replacing Buddy, we don't need to move up to do that because it's likely that Nesmith will be there at 12, and if not, then Bey will be. I also like the PG Kira Lewis who would be there.

I was just asking your input on draft prospects and who you like and think the kings should take. I value your input on draft prospects, and Mexican beer

 

[Turgenev]

Second is R.J. Hampton. Reclassed to graduate "early" (given his age he reclassed to graduate "on time") and skipped college to play a year professionally in New Zealand. I hear the returns didn't go so well. But when I watch his highlights, I see a lot of Mamba in this kid. 6'5", fast and athletic, can shoot, can drive, tries to play hard on D, has all the confidence and swagger in the world.

It's been a while since I followed the Australian NBL (that RJ's NZ Breakers play in) closely, but it has always been a physical league that is well coached and has many players that can compete at an Olympic/ international level. While it doesn't sound like RJ did that great in NZ, the challenges of moving country and playing in the NBL are completely different to joining a big name college program for a year. I feel he will be better for the experience.

 

[sactowndog]

Not sure what your referring to, but if it's about trading Buddy for a higher pick in this draft, my answer is no, I wouldn't do that deal. Buddy has more value than that, especially in this draft. If a draft pick is going to be involved in a Hield trade, then I would want a fairly high pick in next years draft which is loaded with players that are potential stars. How good is that draft going to be, well, right now, the player that's currently ranked around the 12 spot, would likely be the first pick in this years draft.

As for replacing Buddy, we don't need to move up to do that because it's likely that Nesmith will be there at 12, and if not, then Bey will be. I also like the PG Kira Lewis who would be there.

most people in RealGM don’t think Buddy is worth even 6 in this draft given his play and contract.

 

[Joshoua]

Geez Nesmith shot 52.2% from 3 on 8.2 attempts that’s absolutely crazy. He’s also the first player to do that on that many attempts and at 6’6- 215 pounds and a 6’10 wingspan he has great size to play SG. And with the way the league is going we could start him at SF either way he should be number one on our list with our core being Bagley/Fox.

 

[jiimbob]

Geez Nesmith shot 52.2% from 3 on 8.2 attempts that’s absolutely crazy. He’s also the first player to do that on that many attempts and at 6’6- 215 pounds and a 6’10 wingspan he has great size to play SG. And with the way the league is going we could start him at SF either way he should be number one on our list with our core being Bagley/Fox.

I’ve only watched clips and read articles on Nesmith, but nbadraft.net had Buddy ranked higher in passing, ball handling, and defense. He might improve in those areas if he stayed in college longer. Just saying, I’m not sold on him but hope whoever picks looks him over.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Not liking Waltons coaching style and Buddy's lack of defense/ill timed mistakes are not mutually exclusive That said I am fine bringing in the GM who is a result of many interviews of different candidates and letting him make the call on Buddy. Lets hope Vivek is as well

I’m operating under the presumption that most would stipulate to those weaknesses/mistakes being magnified by Walton asking or allowing Buddy to do things he’s not especially good at doing.

Buddy’s play and overall performances under Dave Joerger were clearly much, much better. Because he didn’t misuse players the same degree.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Not liking Waltons coaching style and Buddy's lack of defense/ill timed mistakes are not mutually exclusive That said I am fine bringing in the GM who is a result of many interviews of different candidates and letting him make the call on Buddy. Lets hope Vivek is as well

I’m operating under the presumption that most would stipulate to those weaknesses/mistakes being magnified by Walton asking or allowing Buddy to do things he’s not especially good at doing.

Buddy’s play and overall performances under Dave Joerger were clearly much, much better. Because he didn’t misuse players the same degree.

So while they are separate things, the point was if someone is going to criticize Walton for misusing players — then they kinda have to lay off Buddy a little bit. Because he’s only doing what the HC is asking him to do. Including coming off the bench.