Gross mismanagement of the team since 2006 when we last made the playoffs aside, in order to see what we can do lets see what we have, where we erred and what we can do about it. Sometimes it is super difficult to remove "homer" glasses when examining a team one roots for but I will try.
What we have:
Super-star ceiling:
1) De'Aaron Fox-- There is no PG like him. Hes the fastest point guard in the league. He can get wherever he wants whenever he wants. He scored 39 pts against SA which featured much better defenders (Murray, White) than the Magic. Hes improved every year. He can turn it on but again showed he is not quite there yet. Best case is he figures it all out and becomes a superstar but other outcomes range from solid borderline all star starter to all star or star. We don't know yet. He needs to be the Fox we saw against SA consistently to reach his ceiling.
2) Marvin Bagley III- The guy has had the worst injury luck the past year. Hes not Luka and will never be him. What he was was the most recruited player in HS when he went to Duke and he went a year early. I recall watching highlights of him in the Drew league and he dominated many an NBA all star. Hes known for athleticism and rebounding but what I liked most about him was that game in Miami he was not only rebounding but he was blocking shots and provided a very surprising defensive presence. He can get 20 and 10 pretty effortlessly but the big question is about what those numbers mean. Are they empty stats? Or do they mean something in terms of team success? Hes still very young (21), works extremely hard and in that MIA game showed he has defensive potential. My only concern with him is his assist rate is low and he's not exactly great at reading passing. He played very limited min with Giles but seemed to pass a lot better with him on the floor so there is potential. He could end up anywhere from out of the league (injuries) or if injuries subside then hes anywhere from solid starter to borderline all star to all star to star to superstar. Coaches dont compare someone to KD (especially Joeger) just out of the blue. Theres talent there. Will it materialize who knows? The biggest sin is giving up on young players too soon, so whatever Bagley and Fox turn into, the Kings are married to the experiment until their status in the league is proven one way or the other.
All Star:
1) Buddy Hield- last year this looked realistic. This year not so much. Part of it is the way hes used, slow down in pace pre pandemic. But Buddy made the most threes for someone in the first several urs in the league for a reason. He has one skill (when hes on) that's invaluable and that's shooting. He also tries to be Kobe and overdo things and thinks he can make plays that he shouldnt try to make. Hes also older and while hes improved he has to be well coaches and have a system that plays to his strengths. He reminds me of a later stage Ray Allen or a Michael Redd. These guys are very useful players but hes not used properly. He needs a coach thats hard on him like Joeger. The laidback stuff just doesnt work with him. He could range from super sixth man to solid starter to borderline all star/all star once in his career in the right system. Sadly, I dont think that works here anymore bc Walton let Buddy dictate things and we probably should trade him. Zach Lavine, if available, seems like a good get.
2) Harry Giles- HG has been misused more than any other King. Hes likeable. He loves Sac. He is in many ways the perfect King. Vlade crapped his pants by not picking up that option and HG has enough talent to get a solid offer somewhere. It should have never come to that but my only hope is he stays. Hes worked so hard to improve and my gut says he becomes a very good player. The range is first big off the bench to all star. I hope he stays but my gut says he goes to Boston to play with Tatum. Although that sucks I wont blame him and I bet he becomes a helluva player. Didnt have to be like that.
Solid starter:
1) Richaun Holmes- Hard worker. Good defender except with BIG centers. Great motor. Great person. He embodies everything we want in a Kings player. He might be great as a solid starter but I wonder of we over value him sometimes. He might be better off in a Montrezl Harrell role. 25 min off the bench. Important role player. Very very important role player.
2) Bogdan Bogdanovic- Reminds me of a Serbian Manu Ginobili. Like Ginobili hes a little wild at times but the talent is there and once he harnesses it he will be just as effective as Manu. But perhaps hes better in a bench role like Ginobili was. For now he seems like the best compliment to Fox in the starting lineup.
3) Harrison Barnes- Nice player. Nice person. Not a good return on investment at that contract price. He is solid but disappears at times. I get why hes here but Bazemore and Brewer seem to bring the vet leadership and add to the play style at a fraction of what he makes.
The rest:
1) Nemanja Bjelica- Great shooter, better passer and defender than what hes given credit for. Hes a good piece but in a smaller role off the bench. Hes the type of player Fox needs to play with but not at the level of what Fox needs to play with as a starter if we are a playoff team.
2) Daquan Jeffries- nice player in the draft. Went undrafted. Always had potential but hes competing at a high level and has passed every test hes had with flying colors. He could end up being a nice find and we should re sign him bc hes earned that. Impacted every game so far both offensively and defensively.
3) Cory Brewer- Older vet that plays well and knows his role. He makes an impact and should stick around for spot minutes if we ever become a playoff team this yr or next.
4) Justin James- good 3 and D potential can learn a lot from brewer and baze
5) Kent Bazemore- nice find. Brings qualities the Kings need. He can help mentor Jeffries and James. A solid piece if we contend.
6) Cory Joseph- hasnt done much lately but did when Fox was out. Not sure if 12 million is worth what he brings now but an ok player.
Draft 2019:
1)no first rd pick but seconds were Guy and James. Every draft stings but passing on Bol Bol was a head scratcher in the 2nd round. And now Denver has Porter and Bol bc their scouts did their hw.
Draft 2020:
1) Likely pick 12 and some seconds if used. Well if we had DEN scouts Id be optimistic. We dont. Not that James and Guy dont have potential but this is why DEN adds talent and w we dont. Plenty of talent here in most drafts so cant screw it up. But history shows we have year after year.
Trades:
1) Who knows but other than mid level FA superstars arent coming here. We need a Webber for Mitch Richmond like trade. Not convinced it will happen with this crew. Im not sure I want Sam Hinkie but we need a good GM with an eye for talent. Someone from SA or OKC or TOR that is in a front office that finds talent. It wont be the head GM's themselves but Sam Presti didnt have his rep when he was in SA. He was working under RC Buford. We need an up and coming GM like that from an office that finds talent. Likewise scouts from similar front offices.
Coaching:
1) Huge downgrade from Joeger to Walton. Seemed like he could fit nicely but hes just "too cool." Someone said he tries to be like Phil Jackson and thats my read too. Except theres no Kobe and no MJ and no Shaq on this team. Im not sure we will change the coach but we need someone to teach defense. Someone more intense that shows they care. Again, someone from a winning pedegree. Anyone on the Spurs bench would suffice, especially Becky Hammon bc the Kings would also have the notoriety of making the first female head coach in the NBA happen. If not then udoka or messina or anyone that has won before and comes from that coaching tree.
Like I said before we are married to Fox and Bagley for better or for worse. Fox is some high level talent but how high remains to be seen. I still think he gets into at least the star level and I feel like he can get to superstar.
Bagley has a range of outcomes and we will see that outcome when he gets back.
If somehow we could find a deal for Lavine involving Hield and perhaps finding some way to get an Okoro or Avdija then we might still be ok.
If all else fails the next several drafts are so stacked with talent that someone helpful will be there. I would try to make trades with firsts attached. Not sure why Vlade likes seconds so much but firsts especially in these next two drafts.
The biggest thing is the Kings need shooters around Fox, passers, and defensive minded players. Ideally 3 and D players.
Also the drop off when Fox goes out is Huge. We need whoever plays like Lou Williams. Not Buddy but a combo guard that can push the pace and ahoot the lights out. If that player can defend awesome but at least the first two.
I have no idea how this team thinks but its clear they didnt think about all of the pieces needed to compete consistently. Hopefully they figure it out soon. I think we are all tired of waiting.
