The Marvin Bagley thread

[iowamcnabb]

I blame him. It’s an unnecessary risk locking up your cap space in guys like Dedmon, Joseph, Ariza, and Barnes.
Vlade went all-in with a 10, jack, & queen after the flop hoping that a king (Fox) & ace (Bagley) would turn up on the turn and river. It wasn’t a smart play then and it’s not looking like we’re going to get lucky now.

He is riding with Bagley and Fox because if they don’t develop, cap flexibility won’t mean anything. If Bagley is the same player at the end of the year as he is now and the Kings finish a bunch of games under .500 they will have to blow the whole thing up anyway. They will then have a top ten pick, bunch of seconds and tradable pieces if they so choose (Bagley, Buddy, Barnes and Beli). Dedmon is essentially an expiring contract after this season.

 

[tyguy]

How well did you do in math?

Ad hominem

 

[kingsboi]

We have to live with giving Bagley big minutes right now vs. trying to play the more impactful players (Holmes & Bjelica).

If Bagley figures it out quickly, then you’re probably winning more games and having a promising young duo of Fox/Bagley. If he doesn’t figure it out, you’re likely racking up the losses and have a better shot at drafting another potential star in next years draft.

If Bagley busts, a Fox/Hield/Bogdan/Barnes/Bjelica/Holmes core is not going to be close to good enough to be a top seed in this league, but it will likely lead to middling 1st round picks and an extended period of mediocrity until we blow it up again.

This is why my approach was always to stay patient and to not sign veterans to big deals when we don’t even have established stars on this team. We gambled by assuming Fox and Bagley would become stars. If one of them doesn’t become a star, we’re headed towards being a treadmill team due to the decisions Vlade made.

Play Bagley 30+ min a game and either...

1. Rack up the losses and improve our chances at drafting a star next year
2. Or he figures it out and starts to look like he’s headed down the path of stardom

If we limit his minutes and he busts, it will make it that much harder to find our 2nd star in the draft. The point is to either win via your potential stars or lose via your potential stars. If you win via your potential stars, you probably have your stars in place and can start to build around them. If you lose via your stars, then you have a better pick to draft another potential star next year.

another approach Vlade can take is to sell high on Bagley if he doesn't start showing progress come next season. They have plenty of time to see what they have in him for the remainder of this season barring another injury setback and then make further evaluations from there.

 

[kingsboi]

Can’t just roll out a guy for 30mpg who doesn’t set picks, can’t space the floor, is a deer in the headlights on defense, and is a net negative. Not when we’re trying to win and would hurt his development, you want 30ppg earn it to take it don’t expect it given to you when your hurting the team

precisely. we saw how Tyreke turned out after giving him free reigns to just go out there and do whatever he wants with no discipline or having to earn minutes.

 

[jellyfish]

another approach Vlade can take is to sell high on Bagley if he doesn't start showing progress come next season. They have plenty of time to see what they have in him for the remainder of this season barring another injury setback and then make further evaluations from there.

If we do that we should target Ben Simmons or KAT with a massive package they cannot refuse excluding Fox

 

[kingsboi]

If we do that we should target Ben Simmons or KAT with a massive package they cannot refuse excluding Fox

Simmons doesn't really fit with Fox in my opinion but KAT would be the ideal target here. Maybe try to pry away Brad Beal from the Wiz.

 

[VF21]

Ad hominem

Instead of crying "ad hominem" (which is really not true in this instance) you could merely state the fact that basketball-reference shows MB3 with 70 total games with an average of 25.1 minutes which equates to 1757. (I'm guessing the difference is a accidental digit error.)

 

[Sactown ExPat]

I really wish every Bagley thread didn’t get derailed into a Vlade thread. I really, really like Bagley and kind of just want to talk about him.

 

[Livinthedream]

I really wish every Bagley thread didn’t get derailed into a Vlade thread. I really, really like Bagley and kind of just want to talk about him.

It's just a very vocal few who were always going to jump on Bagley when he came back.

 

[Livinthedream]

stop it man, let’s compare him to Jordan as well too for absolutely no reason

The reason for the comment was because of a Walton quote about Bagley. Try to keep up.

 

[Livinthedream]

We have to live with giving Bagley big minutes right now vs. trying to play the more impactful players (Holmes & Bjelica).

If Bagley figures it out quickly, then you’re probably winning more games and having a promising young duo of Fox/Bagley. If he doesn’t figure it out, you’re likely racking up the losses and have a better shot at drafting another potential star in next years draft.

If Bagley busts, a Fox/Hield/Bogdan/Barnes/Bjelica/Holmes core is not going to be close to good enough to be a top seed in this league, but it will likely lead to middling 1st round picks and an extended period of mediocrity until we blow it up again.

This is why my approach was always to stay patient and to not sign veterans to big deals when we don’t even have established stars on this team. We gambled by assuming Fox and Bagley would become stars. If one of them doesn’t become a star, we’re headed towards being a treadmill team due to the decisions Vlade made.

Play Bagley 30+ min a game and either...

1. Rack up the losses and improve our chances at drafting a star next year
2. Or he figures it out and starts to look like he’s headed down the path of stardom

If we limit his minutes and he busts, it will make it that much harder to find our 2nd star in the draft. The point is to either win via your potential stars or lose via your potential stars. If you win via your potential stars, you probably have your stars in place and can start to build around them. If you lose via your stars, then you have a better pick to draft another potential star next year.

Agreed. I think Vlade and co. tried to skip a step and now they're kinda in a bad place PR wise. Bagley, Giles and Fox were always going to need a couple of more years. Now we've squeezed Giles out and put a ton of pressure on Bagley to be an immediate star. Didn't let the natural progression of young players happen. Veteran players like CoJo, Ariza, Bjelica are always going to play the game "right" in comparison with younger players, even though they may be less talented.

 

[sergmatt]

I really wish every Bagley thread didn’t get derailed into a Vlade thread. I really, really like Bagley and kind of just want to talk about him.

People are talking about Bagley and it's mostly not good because he's not playing well and the team plays worse when he's on the floor. He's not even playing as well as he did last year.

I'm down on him (although not as much as a few in this thread). Picking him was a mistake at #2. All the spin in the world isn't going to change that. Vlade blew it.

With that said though what's done is done. I'm not for trading Bagley. He's too big of a potential talent and the Kings gotta see it through. We just have to hope that he fixes most of his flaws and maximizes his strengths even more.

He's never going to be as good as the guy taken #2. However he absolutely could be an all-star and a great running mate for Fox.

 

[gunks]

I do too, and that's despite not having any certainty as to how he's going to come out as a player. I think his dad's really annoying, but he's not to blame for that. I question his GM's competence, but that's not his fault either. He's just a kid who wanted to play basketball in Sac. If he were a late pick, all we'd be arguing about was when/if he was ready for minutes, but he automatically gets compared to Doncic instead, enraging people about his opportunity cost. As long as he seems to be trying to improve, I have no problem with the kid. I see being riled at Vlade as a whole different thing.

Well said!

The sooner Vlade's incompetent bum is shown the door the better, but I try to keep that sentiment out of my opinions on Bagley...

.... who I was rather pessimistic about on draft day (something about bigs who don't defend being horrible building blocks if you want to win in the NBA), and this was before the Luka blow up. I really hated Marvin as a prospect and had him way back behind Bamba of all people.

He had some impact games on offense last season, I'm hoping it wasn't a result of Joerger junk ball... but hey, Bagley is here, I'll be optimistic for as long as I can.

I remember thinking Fox was going to be a bust after his rookie year, he doesn't look so bad now.

 

[The_Jamal]

The issue with Bagley and everyone claiming he's on the "all-star path" is there's nothing in his game that even remotely points to that being true. Inherently bad defender at both the 4 and 5, can't protect the rim, showing no playmaking chops on the offensive end, below-average floor spacer, average efficiency scoring the ball. The two things last year that DID show some promise was his ability to get to the free-throw line and protect the ball. I'll wait to judge the FTr this year, but still kind of disheartening to see such a drastic drop in his 192 minutes this year from his rookie year.

To me, for him to become a star, he has drastically increase his scoring efficiency (60% TS+), get his Free throw rate to above-average or star levels (.400+) become a 35% 3pt shooter on a few attempts/game, maintain a 26%+USG rate, not be a 1-dimensional offensive scorer and be a viable playmaker (10%+ AST rate at least), be able to use his athleticism to hedge out on the perimeter and defend the quickness at the 4 position while being able to handle the punishment of being a small-ball 5 and taking advantage of that match-up on the offensive end.

It's a lot, but this is also the risk you take on when you're putting your franchise in the hands of a big. They have to be unicorn offensive players to match the impact wings. Otherwise, you're better off just building around more specialty role-players like Bjelica and Holmes who can fit in with just about any stud wings and bring value without being USG hogs on the offensive end.

 

[The_Jamal]

For comparison, him vs Richaun Holmes this year:

Holmes:
69.3% TS
15.6% USG
12.1% TOV
17.0 TRB%
5.8% AST
.300 FTr

2.5 DBPM
3.9 BPM
1.3 VORP

On Court: 856 minutes
Offensive rating: 111.3
Defensive rating: 109.4
Net rating:+1.9

Off Court: 596 minutes
Offensive rating: 103.1
Defensive rating: 114.0
Net rating: -10.9

Total net rating: +12.8

Bagley:
49% TS
26.8% TS
9.3% TOV
17.3% TRB
5.4% AST
.182 FTr

-1.6 DBPM
-6.4 BPM
-0.2 VORP

On Court: 193 minutes
Offensive rating: 99.8
Defensive rating: 116.4

Off court: 1259 minutes
Offensive rating: 109.2
Defensive rating: 110.4

Total net rating: -15.5

So not entirely fair obviously, especially the on/off ratings as Richaun's On/Off is going to be significantly more stable with a much larger minutes sample. But what these numbers do tell us is one guy (Richaun) is incredibly easy to fit into any offensive team on the floor and he's a difference maker on the defensive end as well. Eye test matches what the numbers tell us Richaun has been so far: A quality defensive anchor that rebounds well and is incredibly efficient with limited USG on the offensive end.

For Bagley, the numbers show us what's played out on the court so far: He's not an easy guy to fit into an offensive scheme, he's struggled on defense and he hasn't had any success expanding his offensive game and play making for others. The hope here is that playing Richaun with Bagley will help ease some of the things he's really struggled with and he can focus on getting his offensive efficiency up.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

He's never going to be as good as the guy taken #2.

Is this one of those "All Cretans are liars" paradoxes?

Note: Bagley WAS the guy taken #2.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

To me, for him to become a star, he has drastically increase his scoring efficiency (60% TS+), get his Free throw rate to above-average or star levels (.400+) become a 35% 3pt shooter on a few attempts/game, maintain a 26%+USG rate, not be a 1-dimensional offensive scorer and be a viable playmaker (10%+ AST rate at least)

There have been literally four players in the history of the NBA to put up those numbers for a career (Harden, Curry, Durant, Towns) and a total of 45 different seasons with those numbers if you assume 2+ 3PT attempts per game ("a few" is vague). Hey, I'd like to see him put up those kind of numbers too, but maybe you're asking a bit much.

 

[ppine]

Last year Bagley was a 19 yo kid with great potential.
This year he is a 20 yo kid with great potential.
He needs to start showing it.

 

[Livinthedream]

Most of the guys on the team that the fans scream low IQ or show inconsistency have been in the pros 3 seasons or less. Just an observation. Apply to the thread as appropriate.

 

[jellyfish]

Most of the guys on the team that the fans scream low IQ or show inconsistency have been in the pros 3 seasons or less. Just an observation. Apply to the thread as appropriate.

It's something you have or you don't no one called Luka/Lebron/Rondo/Jokic low IQ in there first 3 season's where as all the guys we have called low IQ on the Kings (all our recent draft picks aside from Fox/Justin Jackson (who just sucks) you still call Low IQ. Skal/Ben/JT/TRob all are still low IQ regardless of how many games/seasons they play.

 

[VF21]

There have been literally four players in the history of the NBA to put up those numbers for a career (Harden, Curry, Durant, Towns) and a total of 45 different seasons with those numbers if you assume 2+ 3PT attempts per game ("a few" is vague). Hey, I'd like to see him put up those kind of numbers too, but maybe you're asking a bit much.

Capt, you are a master of understatement.

 

[VF21]

It's something you have or you don't no one called Luka/Lebron/Rondo/Jokic low IQ in there first 3 season's where as all the guys we have called low IQ on the Kings (all our recent draft picks aside from Fox/Justin Jackson (who just sucks) you still call Low IQ. Skal/Ben/JT/TRob all are still low IQ regardless of how many games/seasons they play.

Dang. I had no idea the bar had reached that high.

 

[Livinthedream]

It's something you have or you don't no one called Luka/Lebron/Rondo/Jokic low IQ in there first 3 season's where as all the guys we have called low IQ on the Kings (all our recent draft picks aside from Fox/Justin Jackson (who just sucks) you still call Low IQ. Skal/Ben/JT/TRob all are still low IQ regardless of how many games/seasons they play.

1. Luka is in his 6th year as a pro. Can't wedge him into every conversation.

2. There are tons of players who've improved from year 1 and beyond outside of the limited list you provided. But I don't want to play the game of "he's different because." That just distracts from the point.

3. A 19, 20, 21 year old is capable of learning or improving themselves in any aspect of life. All players continue to get smarter about their game as they gain experience. No clue where this idea came that players can't improve their bbiq. There are programs specifically designed to improve IQ. Consultants and skills coaches for top athletes.

 

[The_Jamal]

There have been literally four players in the history of the NBA to put up those numbers for a career (Harden, Curry, Durant, Towns) and a total of 45 different seasons with those numbers if you assume 2+ 3PT attempts per game ("a few" is vague). Hey, I'd like to see him put up those kind of numbers too, but maybe you're asking a bit much.

Slight exaggeration sure, but interesting that 3 of those 4 franchise players with those unicorn offensive stats bring at the very best, average defensive value (while mostly rating poor most of their careers). I'm obviously not going to complain if Bagley falls short of those numbers, but it does show how effective and diverse you have to be on offense if you're not bringing defensive value, especially as a big man.

And if we are holding Bagley to a franchise player level expectation and he doesn't drastically improve on defense, those are the type of offensive numbers hes got to get to in order for him to be a "franchise player"

 

[Gguod]

1. Luka is in his 6th year as a pro. Can't wedge him into every conversation.

2. There are tons of players who've improved from year 1 and beyond outside of the limited list you provided. But I don't want to play the game of "he's different because." That just distracts from the point.

3. A 19, 20, 21 year old is capable of learning or improving themselves in any aspect of life. All players continue to get smarter about their game as they gain experience. No clue where this idea came that players can't improve their bbiq. There are programs specifically designed to improve IQ. Consultants and skills coaches for top athletes.

Usually BBIQ is one of the hardest things to improve. I cant recall many players that had significant bbiq issues in their second year that eventually became high bbiq players. You can correct me if I'm wrong of cource. Imo most of the players that had serious issues with basketball iq in college, in their rookie year and start of the second year wont often become even slightly above average bbiq guys. We even drafted a bunch of them and witnessed it.

Fox struggeled in his rookie year. Not because of low bbiq. Its because most of the young rookie point guads dont contribute to winning. Low bbiq was never a worry for Fox pre or post draft. He never demonstrated that he is a basketball genious or anything but he showed at least moderate bbiq in college. Players that dont show it in college, their rookie year or start of their second year usually dont become a high bbiq players, its extremely rare if they do

 

[Sactown ExPat]

Usually BBIQ is one of the hardest things to improve. I cant recall many players that had significant bbiq issues in their second year that eventually became high bbiq players. You can correct me if I'm wrong of cource. Imo most of the players that had serious issues with basketball iq in college, in their rookie year and start of the second year wont often become even slightly above average bbiq guys. We even drafted a bunch of them and witnessed it.

Fox struggeled in his rookie year. Not because of low bbiq. Its because most of the young rookie point guads dont contribute to winning. Low bbiq was never a worry for Fox pre or post draft. He never demonstrated that he is a basketball genious or anything but he showed at least moderate bbiq in college. Players that dont show it in college, their rookie year or start of their second year usually dont become a high bbiq players, its extremely rare if they do

I wouldn’t call Kobe’s first couple years high IQ basketball, or even middling. A more normal “star” would be a guy like Shawn Kemp. Struggled early, but then led a team to the Finals. Obviously, not a basketball genius at his peak, but still. Our very own Chris Webber’s defense was...sporadic, early in his career. But, a precocious offensive genius from the start.
Chauncey Billups got traded his rookie season. I would argue KG became a much smarter player over his career, particularly defensively, but the analytics might show him as being sneaky good early, I’m not sure. If memory serves, he had decent block numbers, but struggled to really stop anybody in the paint. Different era, though.

 

[Livinthedream]

I wouldn’t call Kobe’s first couple years high IQ basketball, or even middling. A more normal “star” would be a guy like Shawn Kemp. Struggled early, but then led a team to the Finals. Obviously, not a basketball genius at his peak, but still. Our very own Chris Webber’s defense was...sporadic, early in his career. But, a precocious offensive genius from the start.
Chauncey Billups got traded his rookie season. I would argue KG became a much smarter player over his career, particularly defensively, but the analytics might show him as being sneaky good early, I’m not sure. If memory serves, he had decent block numbers, but struggled to really stop anybody in the paint. Different era, though.

Kobe Bryant did not pass out of the double team. He took a bunch of mid range jumpers. Most of them contested. High volume scorer. Was never a playmaker. Not a great team defender. Didn't play the passing lanes. Career 32% 3pt shooter. Couldn't crack the starting lineup his 1st 2 years. Teammates didn't like him. Just all around inefficient, poor teammate kinda player. Hall of famer too. Glad no one gave up on his potential.

 

[Kangztillidie]

Kobe Bryant did not pass out of the double team. He took a bunch of mid range jumpers. Most of them contested. High volume scorer. Was never a playmaker. Not a great team defender. Didn't play the passing lanes. Career 32% 3pt shooter. Couldn't crack the starting lineup his 1st 2 years. Teammates didn't like him. Just all around inefficient, poor teammate kinda player. Hall of famer too. Glad no one gave up on his potential.

Kobe had an ego and a work ethic to match tho.

 

[Livinthedream]

Kobe had an ego and a work ethic to match tho.

None of that is in question for Bagley. Not saying Bagley will be a hall of famer. Saying his career is just starting.

 

[kb02]

1. Luka is in his 6th year as a pro. Can't wedge him into every conversation.

2. There are tons of players who've improved from year 1 and beyond outside of the limited list you provided. But I don't want to play the game of "he's different because." That just distracts from the point.

3. A 19, 20, 21 year old is capable of learning or improving themselves in any aspect of life. All players continue to get smarter about their game as they gain experience. No clue where this idea came that players can't improve their bbiq. There are programs specifically designed to improve IQ. Consultants and skills coaches for top athletes.

I believe Bags can develop his hoops IQ. He’s shown flashes, but it isn’t where any of us hope it would be 1.25 years in. To be fair, 1 year in, given his injury.

I have absolutely no faith that Buddy will develop his hoops IQ. He is our JR Smith—for better or worse.