Let me start off by saying I think both can easily contribute to a team's success. However, we saw last year (and now this year) that we are worse when both of them are on the floor together.
When Hield & Bogdan
WERE NOT on the floor together last season, the team had a
NETRTG of -0.6
When Hield & Bogdan
WERE on the floor together last season, the team had a
NETRTG of -3.0 (989 min sample size)
Meaning we were outscored by 2.4 more points per 100 possessions when we decided to play Hield & Bogdanovic together vs. if we kept one or both of them on the bench. The issue has seemed to become even worse this season (acknowledging the small sample size):
When Hield & Bogdan
WERE NOT on the floor together this season, the team had a
NETRTG of -8.7
When Hield & Bogdan
WERE on the floor together this season, the team had a
NETRTG of -32.5 (57 min sample size)
Again, we have two talented SGs that both deserve to play more than 24 mpg. However, playing them more than 48 minutes collectively (assuming they would get all the SG minutes) means we're hurting our team performance. So what do we do? We either....
- Trade Buddy Hield (would probably have to wait until his contract kicks in next year)
- Trade Bogdan Bogdanovic (assuming we just wouldn't let him walk next offseason for nothing)
- Keep both of them (in hopes they figure it out)
- Trade both Buddy Hield & Bogdan Bogdanovic (may be that you don't like either of them long term here)
Personally, I'm leaning towards the option of trading Hield and keeping Bogdanovic.
For starters, the team's performance is better when Fox/Bogdan are on the floor & Hield is off the floor vs. when Fox/Hield are on the floor & Bogdan is off the floor.
Fox/Bogdan = On Court & Hield = Off Court (365 min sample size)
OFFRTG = 112.6
DEFRTG = 108.3
NETRTG =
+4.3
Fox/Hield= On Court & Bogdan = Off Court (1420 min sample size)
OFFRTG = 113.1
DEFRTG = 110.7
NETRTG =
+2.4
I also took a look at these numbers when both Hield & Bogdan had Barnes in the lineup next to them (a solid, good sized SF)...
Fox/Bogdan/Barnes = On Court & Hield = Off Court (77 min sample size)
OFFRTG = 112.7
DEFRTG = 97.0
NETRTG =
+15.7
Fox/Hield/Barnes= On Court & Bogdan = Off Court (451 min sample size)
OFFRTG = 114.4
DEFRTG = 111.1
NETRTG =
+3.3
Then I started to think about what does each bring to the game. I would say Hield has the advantage in shooting & rebounding, but I would say that Bogdan is a better passer, better ball handler, better defender, & has better bball IQ. Not to mention that he's still a very good shooter. Not elite like Hield, but very good nonetheless.
Then you have the size & length comparison which is advantage Bogdan:
Hield
Height w/ Shoes =
6'5"
Wingspan =
6'9.25"
Standing Reach =
8'5"
Weight =
212.4lbs
Bogdan
Height w/ Shoes =
6'6"
Wingspan =
6'11"
Standing Reach =
8'8"
Weight =
205lbs
Bogdan's standing reach is in the 91st percentile among SGs measured at the combine in the last 10 years. His wingspan is 83rd percentile as well. He's a very long SG.
And then Bogdan will likely have the advantage with his contract next offseason. He'll likely end up making less. I could see him around $14-$17 mil per year where Hield will likely be around $23.5 mil per year (considering his likely incentives).
Coming back to the shooting though as this is where the "pro Hield" crowd tends to emphasize that shooting should be weighted much heavier in this decision despite Bogdan being better in many other facets of the game, and to some degree, I agree. Shooting is very important in today's game, but again, Bogdan is no slouch here. He shot 39.2% from three his rookie year, shot 36% from three his sophomore year, and shot 53% (on 66 3PA) during FIBA. Again, he's no slouch.
I also wanted to dive a little deeper into last year's shooting numbers to see why there was a dip. His pull-up 3PT% was 39.3% in the 2017-18 season. That drastically dropped to 30.5% in the 2018-19 season. If he kept his pull-up 3PT% similar year to year, his 36% would have climbed to 39.3%.
The other thing I noticed is that 13.1% of Bogdan's 3PAs last year were when the shotclock was between 0-4 sec. As a comparison, only 5% of Hield's 3PAs last year were when the shotclock was between 0-4 sec. That tells you that we were looking to Bogdan to bail us out at the last second when the offense broke down, and he shot only 24% on those types of 3PAs. If he had that closer to 5% (like Hield) that bumps his 3PT% up another percent.
It also looks like Hield got more of his looks from the corner three vs. Bogdan. 20.1% of Hields 3PAs were from the corner vs. Bogdan only had 11.3%. Everyone knows that corner three is one of the best most, efficient shots in the game. If he had more looks from the corner, I'm sure his 3PT% would be higher as well.
The last thing I'll mention is that 53.9% of Hield's 3PAs were when the closest defender was 6+ft away vs. Bogdan only had 43.2% of his attempts be that open. Now that that may be a product of Hield playing more minutes with Fox (and therefore, that may carryover to Bogdan if he became the starter) or it may just be that Hield works harder to get that open.
But at the end of the day, Bogdan is still a very good 3PT shooter, and I think a decent amount of the discrepancy comes from...
- His pull-up 3PT% dropping significantly vs. the year prior
- Him being asked to take a shot when the shotclock runs down
- Less opportunities to shoot from the corner 3
- Less wide open threes (perhaps a product of playing with the reserves who don't command as much attention from the opposing team's defense)
If we were to move Hield, you could probably land a pretty good player as well. Perhaps there is some sort of deal out there that allows us to trade Hield to a 3rd team and receive M. Turner (don't think they'd want Hield with Brogdon & Oladipo there). The Pacers seem to be playing better with Turner out and Sabonis sliding over to C so perhaps it's feasible. Like a Hield to TOR / Anunoby to IND / Turner to SAC sort of deal or a Hield to MIN / Covington to IND / Turner to SAC.
