The ONE AND ONLY Luka Doncic discussion thread
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Unless Tim Hardaway dumbly decides to decline his 18 million dollar player option next summer for no good reason, the Mavs aren't going to have the money to offer Bogi a huge contract we can't match and have absolutely no assets of any value to offer up for him in a sign and trade. They'll have approximately 9 million dollars of cap space next season (which wouldn't even been enough cap room to take Bogi at his current contract).
Their cap situation opens up a bit in 2021-2022, when Hardaway and Justin Jackson's contracts come off the books but that's literally the only year the Mavs are going to have a chance to do anything in free agency because Luka's presumably super-max contract would kick in the following offseason. Now normally this is where draft picks come in super handy as a method to acquire either (a) cheap young developable talent or (b) veteran pieces via trade but the Mavs won't have that luxury because they traded every pick they possibly could to acquire Luka (smart) and Zinger (an acceptable move if it wasn't at the price they paid).
This is why not doing dumb things like extending Dwight Powell for three years at 11 million dollars annual salary or paying Maxi Kleiber like he's a starting stretch forward is important. They both play generally the same position without doing anything particularly great (seriously, Dwight Powell's greatest skill appears to simply be existing and Maxi Kleiber's three point shooting is surprisingly meh) or complimentary but combined are taking up the same amount of cap space as Harrison Barnes (who Mavs fans spent the better part of three years complaining about as being overpaid).
Donnie Nelson doesn't have to be good for the Mavs to be good, he just has to not be Donnie Nelson, which is a tough challenge for him.
On the coaching end, Carlisle at least appears to have modernized his offensive schemes (or at least had the wisdom to just give the ball to Luka and get out of his way) which only leaves his bad player development track record, awful minutes distribution, and oddball coaching decisions to fix.
Their cap situation opens up a bit in 2021-2022, when Hardaway and Justin Jackson's contracts come off the books but that's literally the only year the Mavs are going to have a chance to do anything in free agency because Luka's presumably super-max contract would kick in the following offseason. Now normally this is where draft picks come in super handy as a method to acquire either (a) cheap young developable talent or (b) veteran pieces via trade but the Mavs won't have that luxury because they traded every pick they possibly could to acquire Luka (smart) and Zinger (an acceptable move if it wasn't at the price they paid).
This is why not doing dumb things like extending Dwight Powell for three years at 11 million dollars annual salary or paying Maxi Kleiber like he's a starting stretch forward is important. They both play generally the same position without doing anything particularly great (seriously, Dwight Powell's greatest skill appears to simply be existing and Maxi Kleiber's three point shooting is surprisingly meh) or complimentary but combined are taking up the same amount of cap space as Harrison Barnes (who Mavs fans spent the better part of three years complaining about as being overpaid).
Donnie Nelson doesn't have to be good for the Mavs to be good, he just has to not be Donnie Nelson, which is a tough challenge for him.
On the coaching end, Carlisle at least appears to have modernized his offensive schemes (or at least had the wisdom to just give the ball to Luka and get out of his way) which only leaves his bad player development track record, awful minutes distribution, and oddball coaching decisions to fix.
Man Luka is so beasty this year.
I was sooooooo happy last year when the Kings got the 2 pick, and the word was that Phoenix was going Ayton. After the Kings Sauced all over their Castillo on draft night again, I'm glad I made the wise decision to pay whatever I had to in my keeper auction league to get Luka so I could still root for him. Paying dividends this year
I was sooooooo happy last year when the Kings got the 2 pick, and the word was that Phoenix was going Ayton. After the Kings Sauced all over their Castillo on draft night again, I'm glad I made the wise decision to pay whatever I had to in my keeper auction league to get Luka so I could still root for him. Paying dividends this year
Man Luka is so beasty this year.
I was sooooooo happy last year when the Kings got the 2 pick, and the word was that Phoenix was going Ayton. After the Kings Sauced all over their Castillo on draft night again, I'm glad I made the wise decision to pay whatever I had to in my keeper auction league to get Luka so I could still root for him. Paying dividends this year
I was sooooooo happy last year when the Kings got the 2 pick, and the word was that Phoenix was going Ayton. After the Kings Sauced all over their Castillo on draft night again, I'm glad I made the wise decision to pay whatever I had to in my keeper auction league to get Luka so I could still root for him. Paying dividends this year
I’ll always poke fun at his Cowboys, I’m cozying up right next to him on the MavsWagon. Lol
You know that I wanted Luka over Bagley too, but come on now. Doncic is not leading a team to a title by himself. LeBron couldn't do it and Jordan couldn't do it. Doncic is going to need good players around him just like the legends of this game did. Porzingis could definitely be his Wade or Pippen (if his body can actually hold up injury wise), but let's not pretend like Doncic (by himself) is going to carry a team to a championship.
Although he's been putting up good numbers, Doncic's impact stats aren't all that impressive yet. They are impressive in terms of him being 19-20 years old, so I think as time goes on his numbers will start to translate more and more to impact but it's certainly something to keep an eye on. Below are his impact stats from last year:
On/Off = -3.7 (better than 24% of his teammates)
RPM = +1.29 (better than 83% of the league)
RAPM = -0.01 (better than 53% of the league)
I don't have access to RPM or RAPM for this season yet, but his per36 numbers have seen an improvement from last year:
.305 USG% / .545 TS% / .427 FG% / .327 3PT% / .713 FT% / 23.7 PPG / 8.7 RPG / 6.7 APG / 1.2 SPG / 0.4 BPG / 3.8 TOPG / 2.1 FPG
.330 USG% / .609 TS% / .480 FG% / .321 3PT% / .836 FT% / 28.5 PPG / 11.1 RPG / 9.4 APG / 1.3 SPG / 0.1 BPG / 5.0 TOPG / 2.6 FPG
Despite his low 3PT% and increasing his volume, he considerably improved his TS% which is impressive. However, his assists went up considerably, but so did his turnovers. He's still not above a 2:1 AST:TO ratio. I'm curious to see if he can work to cut down on the turnovers so his PG duties are more or less unquestioned.
The interesting thing so far is that despite the impressive stats they average and the fact that the Mavs are 6-3 thus far, Doncic & Porzingis are both a net negative when on the floor.
Doncic On/Off = -11.4 (better than 21% of his teammates)
Porzingis On/Off = -23.0 (better than 0% of his teammates)
I'm curious to see how this stat progresses as sample builds and how RPM & RAPM turn out when those become available.
Although he's been putting up good numbers, Doncic's impact stats aren't all that impressive yet. They are impressive in terms of him being 19-20 years old, so I think as time goes on his numbers will start to translate more and more to impact but it's certainly something to keep an eye on. Below are his impact stats from last year:
On/Off = -3.7 (better than 24% of his teammates)
RPM = +1.29 (better than 83% of the league)
RAPM = -0.01 (better than 53% of the league)
I don't have access to RPM or RAPM for this season yet, but his per36 numbers have seen an improvement from last year:
.305 USG% / .545 TS% / .427 FG% / .327 3PT% / .713 FT% / 23.7 PPG / 8.7 RPG / 6.7 APG / 1.2 SPG / 0.4 BPG / 3.8 TOPG / 2.1 FPG
.330 USG% / .609 TS% / .480 FG% / .321 3PT% / .836 FT% / 28.5 PPG / 11.1 RPG / 9.4 APG / 1.3 SPG / 0.1 BPG / 5.0 TOPG / 2.6 FPG
Despite his low 3PT% and increasing his volume, he considerably improved his TS% which is impressive. However, his assists went up considerably, but so did his turnovers. He's still not above a 2:1 AST:TO ratio. I'm curious to see if he can work to cut down on the turnovers so his PG duties are more or less unquestioned.
The interesting thing so far is that despite the impressive stats they average and the fact that the Mavs are 6-3 thus far, Doncic & Porzingis are both a net negative when on the floor.
Doncic On/Off = -11.4 (better than 21% of his teammates)
Porzingis On/Off = -23.0 (better than 0% of his teammates)
I'm curious to see how this stat progresses as sample builds and how RPM & RAPM turn out when those become available.
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Indeed. Luka just doesn't have any help. Even Porzingis hasn't looked all that great this far at least not consistently. Half of Dallas' rotation players would not even play on good teams.
Does kind of remind you of the Cousins Era with the Kings. The Mavericks roster looks as bad as some of those Kings teams that surrounded Cousins.
Mavericks should still be a fringe playoff contender though just because Luka is such a great closer and can carry a team in the 4th quarters. Luka also has the ability to create shots for others while in general being a better more uplifting teammate. Without a couple more legit good players though the Mavericks are going to be a 40-45 win type team at best.
None of that of course is Luka's fault. It's amazing a 20 year old is being asked to carry his team every single night.
Does kind of remind you of the Cousins Era with the Kings. The Mavericks roster looks as bad as some of those Kings teams that surrounded Cousins.
Mavericks should still be a fringe playoff contender though just because Luka is such a great closer and can carry a team in the 4th quarters. Luka also has the ability to create shots for others while in general being a better more uplifting teammate. Without a couple more legit good players though the Mavericks are going to be a 40-45 win type team at best.
None of that of course is Luka's fault. It's amazing a 20 year old is being asked to carry his team every single night.
Luka is a great offensive player but let’s be honest, his defense is horrific. He is constantly on the weakside but does little to help in terms of cutting off drives or protecting the rim. When his man gets the ball, Dallas immediately comes to help. Even on threes he couldn’t be bothered to get his hands up into the shooters face.
Bagley is bad but at least he tries. Luka floats to the lane after playing zero defense and hunts the defensive rebounds. I’m not sure a team can win in the playoffs with that type of leader.
Bagley is bad but at least he tries. Luka floats to the lane after playing zero defense and hunts the defensive rebounds. I’m not sure a team can win in the playoffs with that type of leader.
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