Bagley just average - nothing more, nothing less (split)

[pdxKingsFan]

it clearly isn't meant to be taken seriously, yet some people are taking it seriously and doubling-down on the idea that Bagley is average or worse yet, a flop. Some Kings fans are just off their meds.

I believe some here are actively rooting against him to prove how smart they are. Me, I just can't wait til he's back on the court. I don't know if he was the BPA when we picked, but I see him having tons of potential and needing 2-3 seasons to reach it (I believe he received poor coaching prior to Duke). So every missed game is just longer we'll have to wait.

 

[Gliesian]

Mission to embarrass OP successful. Just let it die now lol

 

[kb02]

This won't age well.

Can the mods save this and then bump it for review once a year?

 

[gunks]

This won't age well.

Can the mods save this and then bump it for review once a year?

I have a feeling this thread is gonna get bumped by one side or the other after just about every game once Bags is back.

I'm an unrepentant Luka stan, and will probably hate Vlade forever for passing on him, but even I think it's silly to act like Bagley is a bust.

The kid needs a ton of work, especially on defense, but he was flashing some awesome stuff last season. I can't wait until he's back in action.

 

[Kingz19]

Im noticing a trend of those disappointed that we didn’t pick Doncic being unreasonably dismissive of Bagley now. It’s developed into a childish hand wringing that seemingly aims to take their disappointment out on Bagley now. Even if we grant the most hyperbolic statements about Doncic and you can go on being disappointed he’s not on the Kings and I won’t argue with you but there is nothing average about Marvin Bagleys rookie year, his ability, his upside, and his athleticism. In all his rawness he had the type of rookie year that spells stardom for bigs and it was done as a reserve.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I have a feeling this thread is gonna get bumped by one side or the other after just about every game once Bags is back.

I have the feeling this thread will eventually get locked and be allowed to die. I'm pretty generally opposed to people digging through the deep past to call out people who once said things that turned out wrong.

 

[Section 101]

I have the feeling this thread will eventually get locked and be allowed to die. I'm pretty generally opposed to people digging through the deep past to call out people who once said things that turned out wrong.

too many skeletons in your closet!

 

[Gary]

Meh, we’ve passed on much better for much worse. Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of being a Kings fan.

Agree.. But I might be coming from somewhere else than you did. If Bagley can stay healthy then you're looking at a top 3 pick who belongs in the top 4 or 5 from that draft class which is OK by me. He has the tools needed in our style of play.

 

[jellyfish]

He will put up numbers but if that leads to anything we shall see

 

[VF21]

it clearly isn't meant to be taken seriously, yet some people are taking it seriously and doubling-down on the idea that Bagley is average or worse yet, a flop. Some Kings fans are just off their meds.

I don't think the OP was attempting humor.

 

[Tetsujin]

I don't think the OP was attempting humor.

Past fiery hot takes from the OP include "Bjelica and Bogi will lead the Kings to the Promised Land" (still a possibility but if anyone's doing the leading it'll probably end up being Swipa) and "Rick Adelman isn't a very good coach" (a take so bad the people who wanted the Kings to draft Jonny Flynn instead of Reke are probably laughing their asses off).

Give the guy (or gal) his credit, he's not afraid to share his opinion.

 

[gunks]

I have the feeling this thread will eventually get locked and be allowed to die. I'm pretty generally opposed to people digging through the deep past to call out people who once said things that turned out wrong.

Oh, I'm not talking about shaming people based on past posts or anything. I'm always down to eat crow, but never one to serve it. *

I just happen to think Bagley, as a raw prospect with super high potential, is going to inspire a lot of debate once he's back on the court. If it doesn't happen here (a ready made Bagley discussion, despite the OP's take, which should be taken with a grain of salt) it'll happen in the game threads.

He's gonna have amazing games and terrible games. This is a message board, we're gonna talk about it.

*I realize you may not have been talking about me specifically btw, but you quoted me, so I figured I'd respond!

 

[Cojc]

He has only played like what 63 games. He is still figuring it out and working on his weaknesses. It takes time and his numbers last year were pretty much what I expected and maybe a little better than expected.

What I do not want to see is him to continue to miss a quarter of each season. Injuries are unfortunately part of the game and we have had our share. He will need to get some time on the floor together with other players to fit back into the scheme of things.

I wonder what our second unit would look like with him and Giles anchoring it for awhile.

 

[63royals]

It struck me that the title of this thread is a perfect example of social media logic:

In order to make it even more obvious that the Kings, and Vlade in particular, are idiots for passing on Doncic, let's denigrate Bagley's skills too. Doesn't have anything to do with actual facts. My advice to the OP - if you want to do the Tarzan yell because you're so much smarter than Vlade, watch out for the clouds of Cheeto dust.

 

[tyguy]

Anthony Davis rookie year 13.5 pts 8.2 reb 29 min per game 60 starts out of 64 games
Marvin Bagley rookie year 14.9 pts 7.6 reb 25 min per game 4 starts out of 62 games

Judging players by their rookie year is not smart

Anthony Davis Rookie year Vorp 2.0 BPM 2.3
Marvin Bagley Vorp .1 BPM -1.8

Davis was the vastly superior player and prospect.

 

[twslam07]

I'll be the first to admit that I wanted Luka over Bagley, but that doesn't mean that Bagley is just going to turn out to be an average player. He did make improvements last year. Let's look at his per36 numbers pre and post all star break:

Pre All Star Break = .568 TS% / .515 FG% / .255 3PT% / .685 FT% / 19.8 PPG / 10.3 RPG / 1.5 APG / 0.7 SPG / 1.5 BPG / 2.4 TOPG / 3.1 FPG
Post All Star Break = .552 TS% / .487 FG% / .390 3PT% / .702 FT% / 24.0 PPG / 11.9 RPG / 1.4 APG / 0.6 SPG / 1.2 BPG / 1.9 TOPG / 2.1 FPG

Some of you may just say those are counting stats and they don't necessarily translate to wins. But Bagley also showed big improvement in his On/Off metrics pre vs. post all star break:

Pre All Star Break
Off On/Off = -1.5
Def On/Off = +2.2
Tot On/Off = -3.7

Post All Star Break
Off On/Off = -1.7
Def On/Off = -6.2
Tot On/Off = +4.5

So his Off On/Off stayed about the same, but his role/volume also increased (14.9 FGA Pre vs. 18.9 Post) which tends to lead to a player being less efficient and hurting the offense a bit more, but he kept it about the same. Defensively is where you see the big change, and that's promising as a lot of us have pointed to his defense as what is going to make or break him as a high impact player in this league.

The other thing to note is that Trae Young was the only rookie taken in the Top 5 last year that saw a bigger On/Off improvement from Pre to Post All Star Break. Below is how the other rookies last year did:

Ayton Pre On/Off = +3.4
Ayton Post On/Off = -2.9
Ayton Net On/Off = -6.3

Bagley Pre On/Off = -3.7
Bagley Post On/Off = +4.5
Bagley Net On/Off = +8.2

Doncic Pre On/Off = -1.6
Doncic Post On/Off = -8.6
Doncic Net On/Off = -7.0

Jackson Pre On/Off = +1.4
Jackson Post On/Off = N/A (didn't play)
Jackson Net On/Off = N/A

Young Pre On/Off = -6.3
Young Post On/Off = +6.3
Young Net On/Off = +12.6

I'm really excited to see Bagley back on the floor and to see what improvements he has made to his game (hoping for a leap similar to what we saw from Fox last year).

 

[jiimbob]

This is a little off subject but he's from the same draft class as Bagley. Is Trae Young as good as his numbers, Lukas talent is obvious but Trae so far appears to be making a case for himself.

 

[Kingster]

Age 19: 6.8 points, 4.4 rebs, 1.9 assists (He sucks; he's not even average. What a waste of a draft pick. Whatever).
Age 20: 12.7 points, 6.7 rebs, 2.1 assists (He's an average bench player. Who cares?)
Age 21: 16.9 points, 7.7 rebs, 2.6 assists (He's an ok starter. Maybe he's a legit starter one day).

A young player today is not the player of tomorrow. If you think differently, ask Giannis Antetokounmpo.

For every cherry you pick, I can come up with something better.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Age 19: 6.8 points, 4.4 rebs, 1.9 assists (He sucks; he's not even average. What a waste of a draft pick. Whatever).
Age 20: 12.7 points, 6.7 rebs, 2.1 assists (He's an average bench player. Who cares?)
Age 21: 16.9 points, 7.7 rebs, 2.6 assists (He's an ok starter. Maybe he's a legit starter one day).

Age 27: 47.2 points, 17.6 rebs, 4.7 assists (YAAAAAAAAAAAAAS!)

 

[ESP47]

Anthony Davis rookie year 13.5 pts 8.2 reb 29 min per game 60 starts out of 64 games
Marvin Bagley rookie year 14.9 pts 7.6 reb 25 min per game 4 starts out of 62 games

Judging players by their rookie year is not smart

AD had a 2.0 VORP while Bagley had a 0.1 VORP during their rookie years. Their impact on the game as rookies was way further apart than those numbers would lead you to believe.

 

[Chupacabra]

AD had a 2.0 VORP while Bagley had a 0.1 VORP during their rookie years. Their impact on the game as rookies was way further apart than those numbers would lead you to believe.

For the sake of the argument, I dont think VORP is intended to be used that way. Im not super familiar with the stat, but the definition is that it measures a player's value over other "replacement-level" players, not as a tool to make comparisons with. Even if im wrong and youre using it properly, youre talking about a difference of 1.9 on a range of VORP values that reaches the 100's. The difference in VORP between Davis and Bagley is comparable to the difference between Tim Duncan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

 

[The Effort Police]

For the sake of the argument, I dont think VORP is intended to be used that way. Im not super familiar with the stat, but the definition is that it measures a player's value over other "replacement-level" players, not as a tool to make comparisons with. Even if im wrong and youre using it properly, youre talking about a difference of 1.9 on a range of VORP values that reaches the 100's. The difference in VORP between Davis and Bagley is comparable to the difference between Tim Duncan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

Well, for the sake of another argument Davis' claim to fame has always been defense and rim protection while Bagley's has always been offense and counting stats. Davis was good on offense and phenomenal defensively, Bagley's good on offense and abysmal defensively.

So them having similar rookie years in the counting stats department isn't that impressive.

 

[Livinthedream]

I know poor defense was the pre draft talking point. But I do recall he came in and started being an above average shot blocker and playing better defense than expected. Now we're back to using his pre draft opinion. I do believe the majority of fans support Marvin and want to see him succeed, but man, he has some very vocal haters.

https://twitter.com/statuses/1057374232525455360

 

[Tetsujin]

Well, for the sake of another argument Davis' claim to fame has always been defense and rim protection while Bagley's has always been offense and counting stats. Davis was good on offense and phenomenal defensively, Bagley's good on offense and abysmal defensively.

So them having similar rookie years in the counting stats department isn't that impressive.

That all said, the Kings probably win tonight if Bagley was suited up.

 

[The Effort Police]

I know poor defense was the pre draft talking point. But I do recall he came in and started being an above average shot blocker and playing better defense than expected. Now we're back to using his pre draft opinion. I do believe the majority of fans support Marvin and want to see him succeed, but man, he has some very vocal haters.

https://twitter.com/statuses/1057374232525455360

Uhh maybe check the date on that tweet.

 

[hrdboild]

@OP
did you watch the last 25 games of last season? he looked unstoppable on offense.
Lots of similar bigs have had success (Bosh, Love, Griffin, Stoudemire)..
The F/O just needs to find some defensive beasts to put beside him at C & SF.

I think your list of comparable players only serves to highlight the problem, though. Chris Bosh and Kevin Love got their rings as the lesser parts of a Superstar trio. Blake Griffin and Amare Stoudamire peaked as guys who couldn't get it done in the playoffs even when paired up with First Team All-NBA caliber PGs. And that was before the league tilted even further toward perimeter players thanks to Golden State and analytics. The current top 50 scoring list this season includes 9 big guys (PF/C). The rest are either guards or wings. I just don't see a path forward that includes a scoring big right now unless that scoring big is maybe the best athlete in the world like Giannis or a guy who can drop 3 or 4 treys a game like Durant.

 

[OptimusRhyme]

I think your list of comparable players only serves to highlight the problem, though. Chris Bosh and Kevin Love got their rings as the lesser parts of a Superstar trio. Blake Griffin and Amare Stoudamire peaked as guys who couldn't get it done in the playoffs even when paired up with First Team All-NBA caliber PGs. And that was before the league tilted even further toward perimeter players thanks to Golden State and analytics. The current top 50 scoring list this season includes 9 big guys (PF/C). The rest are either guards or wings. I just don't see a path forward that includes a scoring big right now unless that scoring big is maybe the best athlete in the world like Giannis or a guy who can drop 3 or 4 treys a game like Durant.

So it is possible that bigs like that can get rings. Good, thats all i need to know.
Hes 20 and is prolly 4-6 years away from truly being close to his max potential. I ain't fretting.

I can easily see him knocking down close to 2-3 treys a game in the future. I can also see him being top 5 in rebs and getting to the line 10+ times a game. goodluck defending that.


Oh and a very similar player won a ring just last year in Siakam. Theres your path.

 

[hrdboild]

So it is possible that bigs like that can get rings. Good, thats all i need to know.
Hes 20 and is prolly 4-6 years away from truly being close to his max potential. I ain't fretting.

I can easily see him knocking down close to 2-3 treys a game in the future. I can also see him being top 5 in rebs and getting to the line 10+ times a game. Especially the way the game is called these days.


Oh and a very similar player won a ring just last year in Siakiam. Theres your path.

Yeah but... those other guys were LeBron (best player in the league), DWade (still top 10 at the time), LeBron again, Kyrie (phenomenal scoring guard who teammates hate but still... phenomenal scoring guard), and Kawhi Leonard (best two-way wing in the league right now). Your tone sounded facetious so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that "we're in great shape, now we just need to add the best player in the league and we're set" wasn't a serious argument, but I wanted to spell it out anyway cause I'm not sure everyone realizes that.

 

[OptimusRhyme]

Yeah but... those other guys were LeBron (best player in the league), DWade (still top 10 at the time), LeBron again, Kyrie (phenomenal scoring guard who teammates hate but still... phenomenal scoring guard), and Kawhi Leonard (best two-way wing in the league right now). Your tone sounded facetious so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that "we're in great shape, now we just need to add the best player in the league and we're set" wasn't a serious argument, but I wanted to spell it out anyway cause I'm not sure everyone realizes that.

I do think they need to find another star player if they truly wanna compete. A defensive beast. Maybe they get him this draft, maybe they trade for him, maybe he signs in a cuple years.
But to say theres no visible winning path going forward is just wrong imo.
Siakim is all the proof i need that bigs like that can succeed.

 

[hrdboild]

I do think they need to find another star player if they truly wanna compete. A defensive beast. Maybe they get him this draft, maybe they trade for him, maybe he signs in a cuple years.
But to say theres no visible winning path going forward is just wrong imo.
Siakim is all the proof i need that bigs like that can succeed.

You're still completely ignoring that Toronto doesn't come close to a championship last year without Kawhi Leonard though. The most coveted free agent in the league is not an easy piece to find. Actually, it's nigh on impossible to find. Siakam hasn't proven anything yet other than he was a steal in the late first round. Let's see how far the team gets with him leading the show this year before anointing him as a sure thing. Kevin Love had 6 years to prove he could win a championship for a franchise and he couldn't do it. Once led the league in PER though. Anthony Davis and Chris Bosh both had 7 years of futility before throwing in the towel and hooking up with LeBron. The other guys you mentioned have never done it. Obviously there's still a path forward that results in a championship caliber team but having Bagley is maybe 10% of the equation and even accounting for Fox and Hield we're still missing 75% of it. (Give or take )

And even that isn't really true because we're talking about myths here. Has Sacramento ever had a physically dominant wing player that's remotely close to LeBron or Kawhi? Ever? Those are the types of players who don't come to Sacramento and who we refuse to invest draft picks on every year. The closest guy I can think of is Ron Artest and he had to get himself suspended for a whole year before that trade could happen. If he doesn't punch a fan in the face he's out of our league too. (Not) coincidentally, the last time we managed to scare anyone in the playoffs was the one year Artest was on the team and Rick Adelman was on the sideline. So we just need to get the type of player we've never been able to get, essentially. And pair him with a hall of fame coach.

Umm...

Wake me up when we have a plan that doesn't require a fairy godmother and a magic pumpkin. Knowing that other scoring bigs have won only when paired up with either the greatest player of this generation or a perennial defensive player of the year who tutored under a hall of fame coach and developed into an elite scorer is less than relevant because the odds of either of those situations occurring here are sub-atomic particle small. We've got better odds at colonizing the surface of the sun.