Buddy and Bogdan’s extension?
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So you're qualifying a 6th man by whether or not a player is better than Lou Williams? That just doesn't make sense to me. Buddy is better than Lou Williams because Lou Williams is one of the worst defenders in the sport. Buddy may be below average on defense but Lou is like two tiers below him. Even if you think Lou is better than Buddy, that's like saying if you aren't better than Domantas Sabonis or Montrezl Harrell, then you're a 6th man. These guys are better than half the guys in the league at their positions. Just because they're coming off the bench on certain teams doesn't mean that any player you deem to be worse than them is a 6th man.
Buddy is not a 6th man unless he's coming off the bench behind Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, James Harden etc. He's good for our squad. Is he as versatile as Brogdon? Obviously not but we've got what we've got and you aren't going to get anything better than Buddy unless you land someone in the draft.
I don't know the exact dollar sign he's going to command but perimeter players are much more important than big men so in the end you do what you need to do to keep your talented perimeter players and patch the team with big men and 3&D wings if you have to. He's probably going to command more than Brogdon but I don't see him getting the max.
Buddy is not a 6th man unless he's coming off the bench behind Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, James Harden etc. He's good for our squad. Is he as versatile as Brogdon? Obviously not but we've got what we've got and you aren't going to get anything better than Buddy unless you land someone in the draft.
I don't know the exact dollar sign he's going to command but perimeter players are much more important than big men so in the end you do what you need to do to keep your talented perimeter players and patch the team with big men and 3&D wings if you have to. He's probably going to command more than Brogdon but I don't see him getting the max.
I agree with @Kingster (I'm still bitter about not getting Brogdan while pissing away money on Ariza.CoJo) with what he/she says but I think the one factor when it comes to Buddy we have to look at when paying him is that he's an elite "fit" next to Fox/Bagley (less so due to his inability to kick the ball out and tunnel vision) who we are building the team around and he would improve Fox's game by just being out on the floor. Buddy is a guy that's super easy to play with and despite his fumbly hands and at times bad choices he does improve the flow of the game.
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I responded to your comment: "You're acting like Buddy is a 6th man if he doesn't improve considerably from his campaign last year. I'm just saying he's not even close to being a 6th man unless he reverts back to the season before last. If he just holds pat with what he did last year for the next 5 or 6 years, he'll be thought of as one of the best Sacramento Kings ever. "
So:
1) I am saying that Buddy played more like a 6th man last year because his non-shooting abilities were wanting and he was a very good shootist. Isn't that the way we normally think of a 6th man - a shootist who typically is not a good defender or much of a ball handler? If that's not a 6th man type, then how would you define one? Maybe after all these years I have a misconception of a 6th man type. That's why I'm using Williams as an example. I'm not defining a 6th man on whether one is better or worse than Lou Williams. IMO, Williams is one excellent example of a 6th man, which points out that an excellent 6th man is a valuable commodity. In this particular case, the commodity of Lou Williams is better than Buddy. (If Buddy's defense is better than Lou Williams, I'd need the Hubble telescope to see it; I just haven't seen what you've seen). Similarly, I'm using Brogdon as a good example of an all-around player normally characterized by the starting 2G. I'm also using Brogdon as a comp for Buddy, i.e. the top of the range. Now if Buddy shows that he actually has the BBIQ, defense, and ballhandling of a Brogdan, while maintaining his superior shooting, you bet I'll revisit the idea of $25 MM or more per year.
2) The question of whether you are going to get someone better than Buddy is a valid one, imo. I just don't have the info on that to know whether that's in fact the case or not. That's pure guesswork at this point. (This was also a big question raised for WCS at the beginning of the WCS debate; I guess the jury is still objectively out on that as we haven't seen Desmond yet in a Kings' uniform). Therefore, I'm not inclined to give it any weight at all currently.
So:
1) I am saying that Buddy played more like a 6th man last year because his non-shooting abilities were wanting and he was a very good shootist. Isn't that the way we normally think of a 6th man - a shootist who typically is not a good defender or much of a ball handler? If that's not a 6th man type, then how would you define one? Maybe after all these years I have a misconception of a 6th man type. That's why I'm using Williams as an example. I'm not defining a 6th man on whether one is better or worse than Lou Williams. IMO, Williams is one excellent example of a 6th man, which points out that an excellent 6th man is a valuable commodity. In this particular case, the commodity of Lou Williams is better than Buddy. (If Buddy's defense is better than Lou Williams, I'd need the Hubble telescope to see it; I just haven't seen what you've seen). Similarly, I'm using Brogdon as a good example of an all-around player normally characterized by the starting 2G. I'm also using Brogdon as a comp for Buddy, i.e. the top of the range. Now if Buddy shows that he actually has the BBIQ, defense, and ballhandling of a Brogdan, while maintaining his superior shooting, you bet I'll revisit the idea of $25 MM or more per year.
2) The question of whether you are going to get someone better than Buddy is a valid one, imo. I just don't have the info on that to know whether that's in fact the case or not. That's pure guesswork at this point. (This was also a big question raised for WCS at the beginning of the WCS debate; I guess the jury is still objectively out on that as we haven't seen Desmond yet in a Kings' uniform). Therefore, I'm not inclined to give it any weight at all currently.
True but technically they could have. They are paying both George Hill and Brook Lopez in his place or even George Hill and Illyasova basically. The Bucks are decent cautionary tale about having that extra MLE type and how it can hurt you. They can point to Ersan Illyasova and the inability to move his contract as a big impediment for them in the summer. They went all in for one season and didn't quite get there and this is what happens. Now the question is if George Hill can replicate his performance in the playoffs because I'm sure how well he played in the playoffs was also a reason why they let Brogdon go.
Now we'll get to see what Brogdon looks like as a full on lead guard. I would expect his stats to go up and his efficiency to dip a bit like anyone else. Oladipo and he are an interesting pairing and a bit similar in what they do so it will either fit really well or be underwhelming. There won't be much middle ground unless one of them turns into a more off ball player. Oladipo tried that in OKC and it didn't really work for him.
People are sleeping on Buddy’s work ethic as well. He is part of the new culture of the Kings - work hard on your game and don’t complain. This is also worth some money.
As to what constitutes a 6th man type. It’s open to debate. My opinion is that ideal 6th men are those that are too ball dominant for the first team to be effective as a unit. But they are players that can heat up quickly and carry the scoring/shot creation load for the second unit.
I think Buddy’s off ball abilities are going to be huge for the first unit this season.
As to what constitutes a 6th man type. It’s open to debate. My opinion is that ideal 6th men are those that are too ball dominant for the first team to be effective as a unit. But they are players that can heat up quickly and carry the scoring/shot creation load for the second unit.
I think Buddy’s off ball abilities are going to be huge for the first unit this season.
I think we're very close on what we think a typical 6th man is. Usually it's a player that can put points on the board at a good rate while the starters are resting. That player usually has a handful of weaknesses like you describe but many times their efficiency is what keeps them on the bench as well. A lot of times they're of the JR Smith, Jamal Crawford mold. Guys that come in and put a big number on the board but their defense may be weak and their FG efficiency is usually around 40% overall. They get by because they are able to outscore the other teams benchers a decent amount of the time.
I think it's Buddy's efficiency that keeps him out of the 6th man conversation. If you can put up 20ppg on elite shooting numbers against the best of the best in the NBA, why should you be considered a 6th man? To me, he cemented himself as a top 10 SG last year with his play. Yeah I wish he was a better ball handler and defender but he has been improving the last couple years in those areas. He's not Brogdan but he's not Korver or Redick either. Plus if you swapped him with Bogie who is more like Brogdan than Hield is, now you have some overlapping skills in the starting lineup with a hole on the bench. Now Buddy comes in and has to create his own shot more, which he's ok at but he's not Lou Williams. His efficiency will go down and the bench will have a ball movement problem since Joseph won't get him the kind of looks that Fox can. Even if the Kings signed Brogdan, I'd have him come off the bench as a 6th man because it would fit the team better.
Check out the advanced stats on their defense and you'll see that Buddy is much better than Williams on that side of the ball despite being bad himself.
I think it's Buddy's efficiency that keeps him out of the 6th man conversation. If you can put up 20ppg on elite shooting numbers against the best of the best in the NBA, why should you be considered a 6th man? To me, he cemented himself as a top 10 SG last year with his play. Yeah I wish he was a better ball handler and defender but he has been improving the last couple years in those areas. He's not Brogdan but he's not Korver or Redick either. Plus if you swapped him with Bogie who is more like Brogdan than Hield is, now you have some overlapping skills in the starting lineup with a hole on the bench. Now Buddy comes in and has to create his own shot more, which he's ok at but he's not Lou Williams. His efficiency will go down and the bench will have a ball movement problem since Joseph won't get him the kind of looks that Fox can. Even if the Kings signed Brogdan, I'd have him come off the bench as a 6th man because it would fit the team better.
Check out the advanced stats on their defense and you'll see that Buddy is much better than Williams on that side of the ball despite being bad himself.
Using Lou as an example is ridiculous. Lou is a 6th man like Manu was a 6th man. Get serious. And, Lou signed a deal that was below market at the time when cap space was at an absolute nadir, mostly because he was tired of moving and has a virtual “no-trade” clause with the Clippers.
Buddy and Siakam are the best FAs next year. We’re not signing Buddy for Lou’s money, nor even Oladipo’s.
Having said all that, if we can’t get him to extend at about 25-ish a season, then I would explore the trade market. I love Buddy, but not at the max. Buddy, some cap filler and some picks could net Beal...or whomever the next disgruntled starlet may be.
Edit: just perused Spotrac...the trade market for Buddy is pretty bleak. We’d need a like-for-like replacement given the roster. So, we’d be looking at something like:
•Beal (referenced above)—no brainer for us
•Booker (same as Beal)—feels like he’s one more bad half-season from quietly asking for a trade, and the Phoenix FO is basically Lebron’s farm system. I think he’s empty calories, but probably more talented than Buddy
•Lavine—probably a straight-up deal...again, might be an empty calories guy or might be a bad mama jama on a real good team. Coin flip, really.
•Jaylen Brown—if he’s dead-set on leaving Boston and the Celtics want to pull the trigger on a deal before the deadline rather than wait for a S&T in the summer (very not likely w/ Danny)
•That’s about it for obvious upgrades that might be available at SG. After that you’re looking at stuff like Monk + picks or DiVincenzo + picks where Bogi becomes the starter and we kick the RFA can down the road on a decent SG talent.
Bottom line: our negotiating position with Buddy is really not good...so anyone thinking we’re getting a team friendly deal is not grounded in reality.
Buddy and Siakam are the best FAs next year. We’re not signing Buddy for Lou’s money, nor even Oladipo’s.
Having said all that, if we can’t get him to extend at about 25-ish a season, then I would explore the trade market. I love Buddy, but not at the max. Buddy, some cap filler and some picks could net Beal...or whomever the next disgruntled starlet may be.
Edit: just perused Spotrac...the trade market for Buddy is pretty bleak. We’d need a like-for-like replacement given the roster. So, we’d be looking at something like:
•Beal (referenced above)—no brainer for us
•Booker (same as Beal)—feels like he’s one more bad half-season from quietly asking for a trade, and the Phoenix FO is basically Lebron’s farm system. I think he’s empty calories, but probably more talented than Buddy
•Lavine—probably a straight-up deal...again, might be an empty calories guy or might be a bad mama jama on a real good team. Coin flip, really.
•Jaylen Brown—if he’s dead-set on leaving Boston and the Celtics want to pull the trigger on a deal before the deadline rather than wait for a S&T in the summer (very not likely w/ Danny)
•That’s about it for obvious upgrades that might be available at SG. After that you’re looking at stuff like Monk + picks or DiVincenzo + picks where Bogi becomes the starter and we kick the RFA can down the road on a decent SG talent.
Bottom line: our negotiating position with Buddy is really not good...so anyone thinking we’re getting a team friendly deal is not grounded in reality.
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That obviously all depends on if ownership wants to pay the tax. It’s very easy to throw money around that isn’t ours... If we overpay Bogi now, then lose a more expensive piece later because ownership gets “cheap” I’d be pretty mad. Of the core, Bogi’s upside is the lowest. High floor, but lower ceiling. If they decide that his money will have to go towards a future extension, that’s a-okay with me as well.
The key to keeping the core and winning will be drafting well. When you have guys on rookie deals filling in key roles, like the raptors with Siakam and OG, it helps a lot.
If they have to keep spending 50 million on role players, this will not be sustainable. They will have to strike on a contributor every draft.
I think the team will regret not using the cap space on overpaid players paired with picks, rather than just overpaying players straight up.
If they have to keep spending 50 million on role players, this will not be sustainable. They will have to strike on a contributor every draft.
I think the team will regret not using the cap space on overpaid players paired with picks, rather than just overpaying players straight up.