Early Playoff predictions
- Thread starter Bosnian Diehard
- Start date
I don't see why the Kings don't get an extra 8 or 10 wins. The Kings have 3 players in the starting lineup that can go off for 20 points and they complement each other well. That should make it easy for Barnes to put up near career levels of efficiency. Having a stretch 5 with Dedmon will make the offense flow more smoothly. bogi, beli, giles, holmes and the newcomers off the bench gives you a little bit of everything: shooting, stretch big, inside scoring, defense, playmaking. That's a really solid starting lineup with a really good bench.
There is a lot of reason to believe the defense will be considerably better. Not just the typical growth you would expect from Fox, Bagley, and Giles, but all the additions are good defensive players, and experienced defensive players, some with NBA championship experience. I am also very encouraged by the comments I heard from Christie about the Kings' defense coach. He said there is an attention to detail that he likes a lot and he is excited about the prospect of the Kings' defense improving considerably next season.
How the Kings play will be interesting as now the Lakers are jumping in on the Philly style with LeBron playing PG. If it becomes an issue the Kings still don't have enough size on the wing to match that. That's where you have beat them on the other end and the Kings went fit over talent again so playing to their strengths is mandatory. That means Fox, Buddy, Barnes, and Bagley better reach that potential fast. There are some HUGE wing teams in the Pacific now. Man, holding onto Ignas Brazdeikis would have been an even better move now the way things have worked out.
Haha, they pulled a Vlade on them? I don't think Morris necessarily helped the Spurs a ton anyway. Again, the Knicks needed to just hang onto that space. You already have the possibility of Westbrook hitting the trade market. There could be a fire sale at the deadline if there are 2 super teams in each conference and the other teams figure what's the point of being mediocre.
With Westbrook gone that pretty much means the Thunder are out of the playoffs.
So the Lakers are in, Thunder are out. That means the Kings will need to beat out one other team that was in the playoffs last year right?
I think it's going to come down to the Spurs or the Blazers. The Blazers should be weaker due to losing Harkless, Aminu and Turner + the injury to Nurkic but they were 14 games better than us last year so that would be a big fall. They also added Kent Bazemore, who is pretty solid. I don't know what kind of impact Whiteside has these days. The Spurs were 9 games better than us themselves. The sharp shooting Bertans is gone but Dejounte Murray will be back. Rudy Gay is back and was back to being a solid contributor last year. They're going to be tough to pass. It's not going to be easy.
So the Lakers are in, Thunder are out. That means the Kings will need to beat out one other team that was in the playoffs last year right?
I think it's going to come down to the Spurs or the Blazers. The Blazers should be weaker due to losing Harkless, Aminu and Turner + the injury to Nurkic but they were 14 games better than us last year so that would be a big fall. They also added Kent Bazemore, who is pretty solid. I don't know what kind of impact Whiteside has these days. The Spurs were 9 games better than us themselves. The sharp shooting Bertans is gone but Dejounte Murray will be back. Rudy Gay is back and was back to being a solid contributor last year. They're going to be tough to pass. It's not going to be easy.
Outside chance we make the 8th spot but all the other teams in the West, with the exception of OKC have all made big jumps. Will our improvements be enough? Perhaps, but there is a lot of playoff experience in the West. Even if we make it, we don’t get far. Wish I could paint a rosier outlook. Still, I will enjoy these youngsters grow up. Solid base built for the future. Let’s hope one of these kids turns into the superstar that we need to get over the hump. While I never jumped off the train....I had a reserved seat in the The last car.
Now that all major moves are practically done, I’ll my tiers in terms of Playoff probability. [This is assuming good health, if any of these teams suffer major injuries you simply move them down a tier or two depending on which player(s) injured and the duration of the injury.]
Locks for Playoffs (5)
LA Clippers
LA Lakers
Houston
Utah
Denver
Likely Playoff team (2)
Portland
Golden State
Fight for 8th seed (4)
Sacramento
San Antonio
Dallas
New Orleans
Unlikely Playoff team (2)
Minnesota
Oklahoma City
Need a miracle (2)
Phoenix
Memphis
———
The only realistic transaction I could see altering any of this would be a CP3 trade to Minny, in which case I would move the Timberwolves into the “Fight for 8th seed” tier.
Locks for Playoffs (5)
LA Clippers
LA Lakers
Houston
Utah
Denver
Likely Playoff team (2)
Portland
Golden State
Fight for 8th seed (4)
Sacramento
San Antonio
Dallas
New Orleans
Unlikely Playoff team (2)
Minnesota
Oklahoma City
Need a miracle (2)
Phoenix
Memphis
———
The only realistic transaction I could see altering any of this would be a CP3 trade to Minny, in which case I would move the Timberwolves into the “Fight for 8th seed” tier.
Not if we're confident in our drafting in the last 2 years. We will possibly be #1 in 3pt shooting and #1 in pace in '19-'20; if not #1, then very likely near the top. An extra year of experience and relatively good health and I dont see why Kings fans should approach next year with a scarcity mindset.
The 7akers are putting a ton of defensive pressure on their team if they think they can have 250 lb, 36 year old LeBron guard today's NBA point guards. He's expected to be the first to chase on their turnovers and missed shots? Cue Chris Broussard and Shannon Sharpe making excuses on ESPN all season about why the 7akers are underperforming, again.
OKC is gone. Portland, and Golden State are considerably worse. We have a highly talented core of players who fit really well together, and have pretty steep upward trajectory record wise. I don't see a great reason to concede defeat to a western conference in which the balance of power is in flux.
The 7akers are putting a ton of defensive pressure on their team if they think they can have 250 lb, 36 year old LeBron guard today's NBA point guards. He's expected to be the first to chase on their turnovers and missed shots? Cue Chris Broussard and Shannon Sharpe making excuses on ESPN all season about why the 7akers are underperforming, again.
OKC is gone. Portland, and Golden State are considerably worse. We have a highly talented core of players who fit really well together, and have pretty steep upward trajectory record wise. I don't see a great reason to concede defeat to a western conference in which the balance of power is in flux.
I was really optimistic on the Kings last year and for most of the season they exceeded my expectations, not really sure what happened that last 3 or 4 weeks, may have just ran out of gas or maybe there was a whole lot of behind the scenes drama that sapped their spirit.
I think they have had a decent free agency for a small market team and have improved. However, most of the other teams in the west have also improved with probably only OKC falling off enough to be out of the play-off picture. Yes, Golden State is down, but I doubt they are out, especially if Klay can return by the all-star break. Barring injuries, the Lakers are in.
So, OKC out Lakers in. That leaves possibly the Spurs as the team the Kings might be able to pass for that last playoff spot. I just wouldn’t bet against Pop. The Kings won 39 games last year and the argument could be made they left several wins on the table, but it could also be argued that maybe they won some they shouldn’t have. I think a minimum win total for that last spot is 45, but probably closer to the 48 that qualified for it last year. One has to wonder where those extra 6 to 9 wins for the Kings are going to come from as the west is so tough. Pels and Mavs are both improved and also may battle for that last spot with the Kings and the Spurs. Even the Suns are slightly better and might not be considered a sure win. I would not be surprised to even see the Kings win total for the coming year decline slightly, even though the team has improved overall. The Kings are not going to sneak up on anybody this year.
Much will depend on circumstances outside of the Kings control. Injuries to key players can change the out-look for any of the teams. Chemistry problems for teams integrating new players could impact their seasons. Those things could also happen to the Kings, hopefully not.
I don’t see Fox making another big leap this year, but hopefully continue to incrementally improve. Same for Buddy, hopefully he can maintain his torrid shooting. If Bagley were to make the same kind of leap this year that Fox made last year, then that might be the difference maker. But honestly, I don’t see that happening. He is a good player and will get better, but I am not sure that he is the super-star perennial all-star that some on here project him to be. All in all, the Kings have a nice core, but getting over that play-off hump in the loaded west is a tall task.
I think they have had a decent free agency for a small market team and have improved. However, most of the other teams in the west have also improved with probably only OKC falling off enough to be out of the play-off picture. Yes, Golden State is down, but I doubt they are out, especially if Klay can return by the all-star break. Barring injuries, the Lakers are in.
So, OKC out Lakers in. That leaves possibly the Spurs as the team the Kings might be able to pass for that last playoff spot. I just wouldn’t bet against Pop. The Kings won 39 games last year and the argument could be made they left several wins on the table, but it could also be argued that maybe they won some they shouldn’t have. I think a minimum win total for that last spot is 45, but probably closer to the 48 that qualified for it last year. One has to wonder where those extra 6 to 9 wins for the Kings are going to come from as the west is so tough. Pels and Mavs are both improved and also may battle for that last spot with the Kings and the Spurs. Even the Suns are slightly better and might not be considered a sure win. I would not be surprised to even see the Kings win total for the coming year decline slightly, even though the team has improved overall. The Kings are not going to sneak up on anybody this year.
Much will depend on circumstances outside of the Kings control. Injuries to key players can change the out-look for any of the teams. Chemistry problems for teams integrating new players could impact their seasons. Those things could also happen to the Kings, hopefully not.
I don’t see Fox making another big leap this year, but hopefully continue to incrementally improve. Same for Buddy, hopefully he can maintain his torrid shooting. If Bagley were to make the same kind of leap this year that Fox made last year, then that might be the difference maker. But honestly, I don’t see that happening. He is a good player and will get better, but I am not sure that he is the super-star perennial all-star that some on here project him to be. All in all, the Kings have a nice core, but getting over that play-off hump in the loaded west is a tall task.
I think our starters are going to be fine and they should push the pace like last year.
A lot of new faces coming off the bench and will be watching how they perform together. Are they going to run like the first unit or be more old fashion in bringing the ball up. Who will provide the main scoring punch or will they spread it around.
The one thing I wish to see is a team effort on defense and a coach who is willing to change something up if it’s not working during a game.
What I want to see overall is gritty defensive effort and the killer instinct to put teams away and keep them down.
This team if they are going to succeed needs to come to camp in shape.
A lot of new faces coming off the bench and will be watching how they perform together. Are they going to run like the first unit or be more old fashion in bringing the ball up. Who will provide the main scoring punch or will they spread it around.
The one thing I wish to see is a team effort on defense and a coach who is willing to change something up if it’s not working during a game.
What I want to see overall is gritty defensive effort and the killer instinct to put teams away and keep them down.
This team if they are going to succeed needs to come to camp in shape.
