Early Playoff predictions

[Cojc]

This will be the best team we have had for awhile and we now have some depth.

The last two years we had some non productive players in key positions and will look forward to seeing if our new additions will fill those gaps.

The things I will look for early in the season is how our defense will play. We need to put a stop to the weak interior defense, put teams away earlier as to help reduce the wear and tear on our key players.

We do just a few of those things and I hope we are trying to find a player or two at the trade deadline that makes us stronger for a playoff push and not to fill a hole we have because of a weak position.

 

[OffTheWallJamal]

I have pencilled us as a 6th seed.

 

[Warhawk]

I voted yes - I think we contend for the 7th-8th spots.

It's all been said by others, but I think the improvements with the team (both natural growth and new signings) will allow us to, for instance, more frequently win games like the 4 we lost to the Warriors last year. Each one was essentially down to the wire. OKC is worse next year. Warriors are worse. The Lakers are technically better but possibly one significant lost-time injury away from a bad year with 3 stars that are more prone to them (due to age or history with injuries) and LBJ hasn't always been playing defense like he used to. Yes, Denver, the Clippers, etc., will be ahead of us, but they were before as well. I think we should hopefully be able to sneak into the postseason.

I also think that after getting rid of a couple of generally good coaches (nobody is perfect, but Malone and DJ were indeed fairly good coaches) and immediately hiring Walton and stating that he will take us to the next level, the FO has placed that expectation on themselves (and also placed it with the fans). So yes, barring a spate of injuries to starters, this team absolutely needs to make the PO or the season will be widely considered a failure. The FO actions and statements have dictated that.

 

[Entity]

We were 0-20 against GS, Tor, Hou, Bos, Brok, Den, And the Clips last year. We 1-3 against NO, LAL, and Utah. So 3-29 vs those teams. I think we can change that record. We got better. A few of those teams did not get better and a few got worse. Against the teams that got substantially better we were already 1-7 against. Against the teams that got worse we were 0-8. Against the teams that stayed pretty much the same we were 2-11. I see no reason we can’t turn those 3 wins into 10-13. At worst that puts us at 46 wins. That’s with us going 0-8 vs LA teams. And I feel we can sneak 1-2 in there.

 

[sactowndog]

In order for the Kings to make the playoffs they need:

1. Fox to develop into our franchise player, NOT a franchise PG. They need him to be our go-to scorer. You can't have passive Fox who sits and waits for Buddy to get hot. They need Fox to take control and realize that it's HIS team. Not a Mike Conley or Jeff Teague, but a Damian Lillard. An in your face PG who's not afraid to put the team on his back and score. I realize this is asking a lot from him, but it'll be his 3rd year. Ok, maybe he doesn't need to be Damian Lillard, but something like 20ppg+ would be fine. Definitely possible considering it's only 3pt more than his 17ppg last year.
2. Bagley to steadily improve his all-around game with emphasis to his 3pt shot. We don't need him to be better than Luka, we just need him to be better than rookie Bagley. To be able to be our 3rd option on offense when we need a bucket. We don't want a ball-stopper either.
3. Hield continues his consistent play. Looking for 18ppg on a consistent game to game basis. Consistency is what Buddy needs. Just make his shots and we'll be fine. 2nd or 3rd offensive option to compliment Fox.
4. Bench play to step up and play consistently. NO Ramon Sessions nor JJ Hickson type BS from our free agents. Aka players who suddenly forget how to bounce a basketball as soon as they reach Sacramento.
5. Coaching, all comes down to Luke Walton. With Joerger we won 39 games. Walton needs to win more than that because this is a much deeper team than Joerger was dealt.

Schedule could be tough. Last year we had 4 games with Memphis, New Orleans and Minnesota. This year we will have 4 against Denver, Houston and Portland. That’s a bit tougher run to make.

With our 3 point shooters, I would argue it’s more important Bagley can recognize a double team coming and find the open shooter. With WCS gone Bagley will have free reign down low. He needs to beat single teams and find shooters.

As for Fox and Bogi, I want to see both improve their shooting off the dribble in the pick and roll. Both shoot 40% in catch and shoot 3’s but are much lower off the dribble.

Buddy needs to improve his handle and being a threat off the dribble.

Giles needs to fix his shooting motion and

 

[Entity]

Schedule could be tough. Last year we had 4 games with Memphis, New Orleans and Minnesota. This year we will have 4 against Denver, Houston and Portland. That’s a bit tougher run to make.

With our 3 point shooters, I would argue it’s more important Bagley can recognize a double team coming and find the open shooter. With WCS gone Bagley will have free reign down low. He needs to beat single teams and find shooters.

As for Fox and Bogi, I want to see both improve their shooting off the dribble in the pick and roll. Both shoot 40% in catch and shoot 3’s but are much lower off the dribble.

Buddy needs to improve his handle and being a threat off the dribble.

Giles needs to fix his shooting motion and

We had 4 games with Houston last year. We went 0-4

 

[Kingster]

I'm predicting the Kings are going to the playoffs.

But I sure am glad the Kings have their 1st round pick in next year's draft!

 

[kingdivac]

I'm predicting the Kings are going to the playoffs.

But I sure am glad the Kings have their 1st round pick in next year's draft!

I would be a little surprised if its a big regression next year. Its possible though. I would think more possible to regress to win 29-34 than a large jump to 49-54 wins. Here's a possible expected win distribution:

33% 35-40 wins (1 in 3) No playoffs
25% 41-48 wins (1 in 4) Playoffs
15% 29-34 wins (1 in 8) No playoffs
12%: 49-54 wins (3 in 25) Playoffs
8%: 28 or less: (2 in 25) No playoffs
7%: 55 or more (7 in 100) Playoffs


Analytically the assumption is 41-48 wins would get the team to the playoffs, but the larger expected win distribution is in the lower range, so its skewed. And it also follows a small chance that 35-40 wins actually would qualify at the higher end like they did in 1996 (39 wins). I'm thinking realistically the playoffs are a bit over 4 in 10 (39-43%) requiring 45-47 wins. Its a fair chance, but less likely than not (57-61%).
Main reason why not? There's a good amount of uncertainty with a new coach, 1 new starter, and 2-3 bench rotation players. They've tried to slant the new players defensively, but there's a risk that the offense takes a hit as well. The goal is the defense makes a bigger leap than the offensive hit, and gets their average point differential into positive territory, preferably to+1 from -1., a significant uptick. Kings were 9th in offense, but 25th in defense. So maybe something like total improvement to 19 in defense and 11 in offense. - meaning something like offense ~113 ppg and defense ~112 ppg against.

 

[sactowndog]

We had 4 games with Houston last year. We went 0-4

That’s correct my mistake.

 

[ppine]

It is going to take awhile to even figure out who is playing for what team.
The Lakers and the Clippers could be really good.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I would be a little surprised if its a big regression next year. Its possible though. I would think more possible to regress to win 29-34 than a large jump to 49-54 wins. Here's a possible expected win distribution:

Despite the 12 game improvement last year, we left another 10 or so winnable games on the table. Anything is possible this season. For all the credit Joerger gets for helping spark the turnaround and developing young guys, he also was prone to highly questionable rotation decisions (Mason and Yogi) and horrifically misusing Barnes after the trade.

I think this season is wide open. Especially when you consider some of the teams that got better on paper or added a name at the expense of roleplayers may not see things work out. Portland and OKC have taken big hits. Spurs are a wildcard. As is Golden State, frankly.

Also consider that this time last year nobody was tanking for Zion. It's unimaginable that once the NCAA season kicks off there won't be a new "generational talent" hyped up to high heavens and every team that starts their first 12 games under .500 will probably question their season goals. Despite this past draft being nowhere near as deep as the two that preceded it there was no shortage of teams throwing in the towel by December last year. I expect the same this year.

I'm glad we have our draft pick but heaven help us if we aren't competing for 5 and 6 instead of viewing an 8 seed as the goal.

 

[jcwkings]

One thing that could help the Kings is that our core has been together for a couple of years now. Its much easier to insert role players into a team, which we will be doing. We do have a new coach but it seems Walton will be building on what was established last season.

 

[Kingster]

Bagley is going to make a HUGE leap this year and it wouldn't surprise me if he's a 20/10 guy. I just worry about whether or not he can stay healthy!

As it stands now, we have Fox 18/8, Hield 20/4 and Bags 20/10. Barnes will probably be 17/5 and Dedmon will probably be close to 12/6. That's one hell of a starting lineup. Then you have Bjelica and Bogs, Holmes, Giles and Joseph coming off the bench with Ariza? Yikes man..

We have one hell of a scary roster. It wouldn't be surprising if we missed the playoffs and it wouldn't surprise me if we were a top 4 team in the west.

If we do miss the playoffs, what do you think is the primary reason? Maybe injuries?

 

[Kingster]

This right here.

Folks....Bagley is going to be a BEAST next year. Absolutely unstoppable. No matter who you put on him he has an advantage.

Glue your hair to your head, tape your teeth to your gums, your about to be BLOWN AWAY

Bagley has heard enough slights from the national media over the last year to give him bulletin board material for his entire career. I think he has been sooooo dissed by the national media that there will be a career-long chip on his shoulder. I hear so much stuff in the national media about Doncic (taking man-crush to an obscene level), Young (Oh, watch that Atlanta, they are up and coming!) and Jackson (he just oozes potential) it makes me want to vomit. When asked who was a disappointment in last year's draft one talking head pauses, says Bagley, then of course everyone smiles because it's Sacramento Kings, then the talking head says that he did think Bagley played well last year. (It's like a default position - when in doubt talk negative about the Kings' draftee). I just want Bagley to shut these guys up next year. Permanently.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If we do miss the playoffs, what do you think is the primary reason? Maybe injuries?

Probably would be due to a team we are sleeping on making a jump.

 

[SLAB]

Probably would be due to a team we are sleeping on making a jump.

Yup. The rest of the west is so damn good. It’s going to be tough.

 

[Tetsujin]

Yup. The rest of the west is so damn good. It’s going to be tough.

To be fair, the western conference team getting slept on the most is the Kings.

 

[kingdivac]

I'm glad we have our draft pick but heaven help us if we aren't competing for 5 and 6 instead of viewing an 8 seed as the goal.

First things first, make the 8th seed period - that must be the goal. 5th or 6th is probably around 50 wins - I would be blown away if they made 50 - it would mean most of their Free Agents perform better than expected. It would mean a jump of equal magnitude to last season - harder to do and frankly unlikely. Lots of changes - I have no idea, but I wasn't too impressed with the Free Agency contracts. Will give the players a chance obviously, but I would be satisfied with getting into the playoffs. Last year was very disappointing with the flame out. Making the playoffs last year would've taken off some pressure on this season. Now its like a pressure cooker for the team and new coach - that's not good. If they get in a hole earlier in the season, it will be that much harder, and could go south.

 

[Cojc]

What I like is we didn’t lose anything important and kept everyone that has and will contribute to a successful season.
I liked what we picked up and hopefully they gel well with the team. I have the belief that Vlade has his roster as of now and finally we have assets and draft picks if he sees a opportunity arise come trade time.

 

[ppine]

If we do miss the playoffs, what do you think is the primary reason? Maybe injuries?

The whole Western Conference is going to be better. The Kings are definitely better with another year on the young guys and some great free agents coming off the bench. They could play better and not win more than 40 games. I can't see them getting to 50, but they have a good chance to make the playoffs.

 

[kingsfan1984]

To be fair, the western conference team getting slept on the most is the Kings.

And to be fairer, the player getting most slept on is WCS. Now that he is poor he will choose to raise a hand around the rim and become a defensive terror with Green

 

[pdxKingsFan]

To be fair, the western conference team getting slept on the most is the Kings.

People argued that when we won 27 games we should really only have won 22. They couldn't believe the jump last year. For my money we were worthy of 45 wins last year. I don't think asking for 50+ wins is too much.

 

[Chupacabra]

Yeah would have preferred Morris over Ariza.

I assume we valued Ariza for his length on the perimeter; not a quality Morris possesses.

 

[Kingster]

I would be a little surprised if its a big regression next year. Its possible though. I would think more possible to regress to win 29-34 than a large jump to 49-54 wins. Here's a possible expected win distribution:

33% 35-40 wins (1 in 3) No playoffs
25% 41-48 wins (1 in 4) Playoffs
15% 29-34 wins (1 in 8) No playoffs
12%: 49-54 wins (3 in 25) Playoffs
8%: 28 or less: (2 in 25) No playoffs
7%: 55 or more (7 in 100) Playoffs


Analytically the assumption is 41-48 wins would get the team to the playoffs, but the larger expected win distribution is in the lower range, so its skewed. And it also follows a small chance that 35-40 wins actually would qualify at the higher end like they did in 1996 (39 wins). I'm thinking realistically the playoffs are a bit over 4 in 10 (39-43%) requiring 45-47 wins. Its a fair chance, but less likely than not (57-61%).
Main reason why not? There's a good amount of uncertainty with a new coach, 1 new starter, and 2-3 bench rotation players. They've tried to slant the new players defensively, but there's a risk that the offense takes a hit as well. The goal is the defense makes a bigger leap than the offensive hit, and gets their average point differential into positive territory, preferably to+1 from -1., a significant uptick. Kings were 9th in offense, but 25th in defense. So maybe something like total improvement to 19 in defense and 11 in offense. - meaning something like offense ~113 ppg and defense ~112 ppg against.

If the Kings defense gets better, chances are their offense gets better because of it, imo. They will have more opportunities to fast break.

 

[SacTownKid]

I assume we valued Ariza for his length on the perimeter; not a quality Morris possesses.

We'll see if the physicality of Morris is more valuable. You need beef at SF right now and that only got more true with Kawhi and now PG13 teaming up out west. With Ariza and Barnes the Kings have a chance but it depends on how much Ariza has left in the tank and if he's willing to buy in.

 

[Padrino]

As many thought, the West has managed to become even more of a gauntlet heading into next season than it was last season. It's absolutely crazy, but there are so few bad teams in the entire conference. Phoenix is putrid, obviously. Minnesota is going nowhere fast. And OKC is more than likely headed for a big fall down the standings.

But other than that, an argument could be made for every other Western Conference team as a playoff contender. I'd guess that New Orleans is too young and their chemistry is too fresh to make much noise next season, but they're just stacked with kids who are probably going to be really good. Dallas made their play at the trade deadline last season, and we'll see if it pays dividends. Memphis has effectively reloaded. Utah has thrown themselves headlong into the conversation for best in the West. The Clippers and Lakers are clearly gunning for the Finals, and though questions abound regarding the quality of the Lakers' roster beyond Lebron and Davis, they're still likely good enough to make the playoffs.

If De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley take "The Leap" next season and become legitimate All-Star level talents, then the Kings stand a good chance of competing for at least the 8th seed. But it will be difficult under the best of circumstances. The health of all the other contenders will be the key. Who gets injured? Which stars? Which key role players? Who misses just enough time to give a team that might otherwise be on the outside-looking-in a chance?

If this Kings team manages to make the playoffs, it will have been a baptism by fire. It will mean they have a winning record, and it will mean that they earned it, that they truly belong in the conversation.

 

[kingdivac]

If the Kings defense gets better, chances are their offense gets better because of it, imo. They will have more opportunities to fast break.

It's surely possible, but the defense must get better - in my example, 2ppg less against or greater will take some concerted effort alone. I think to maintain the same level of offense with a stepped up defense may not be as realistic - but it would be indicative of solid if not exceptional growth. I would be happy with stepped up defense even at the cost of some offense. For players and coaches the statistics dont matter as much compared to the standings, but only one team made the playoffs last year with a 0 pts differential (the Nets) equal pts scored vs against and it was in the East. I think 44/45 wins is an outer-layer threshold for playoffs a the Western team would not have to depend on other teams falling as much. People are not mentioning the Pelicans too much, who could make some noise and challenge right away despite being green.

 

[burekijogurt]

I think the Kings will struggle to be cohesive defensively this year. New coaching staff, 5 new players (Barnes, CoJo, Dedmon, Ariza, Holmes), 2 raw young players who will be getting a lot of minutes (Bagley, Giles). I expect a lot of missed rotations, breakdowns in communication, etc...

 

[Chupacabra]

We'll see if the physicality of Morris is more valuable. You need beef at SF right now and that only got more true with Kawhi and now PG13 teaming up out west. With Ariza and Barnes the Kings have a chance but it depends on how much Ariza has left in the tank and if he's willing to buy in.

I've been under the impression that the Morris Twins have been slotted at power forward for most of their careers. I don't think of power forwards as being perimeter defenders the way that Ariza, a career-long small forward, has been. Sure they have to help out closing on shooters and switching pick and rolls, but sitting in a defensive stance across from Kawhi and PG? It seems to me that if you want a player to sacrifice against Kawhi and PG, it's Ariza and not a Morris.

 

[Nokidding]

I've been under the impression that the Morris Twins have been slotted at power forward for most of their careers. I don't think of power forwards as being perimeter defenders the way that Ariza, a career-long small forward, has been. Sure they have to help out closing on shooters and switching pick and rolls, but sitting in a defensive stance across from Kawhi and PG? It seems to me that if you want a player to sacrifice against Kawhi and PG, it's Ariza and not a Morris.

Marcus (Celtics/Pistons) has always been a SF his whole career, Markief (Wizards/Thunder) has been the PF