Steven Adams?
- Thread starter gutiosnake
- Start date
Adams would be a great trade for several reasons:
• Brings a different dynamic to WCS, this improving our weaknesses: good rebounder, post defender, plays hard, knows his role
• Young enough at 25 to fit the timeline of the team but still really experienced in the Playoffs
• Only 2 years left on his contract, so low risk in terms of wasting our cap on him if he somehow regresses (unlikely but still nice just in case)
If we could somehow get the 21st pick with him that would be amazing. Another asset to trade for wing depth maybe.
• Brings a different dynamic to WCS, this improving our weaknesses: good rebounder, post defender, plays hard, knows his role
• Young enough at 25 to fit the timeline of the team but still really experienced in the Playoffs
• Only 2 years left on his contract, so low risk in terms of wasting our cap on him if he somehow regresses (unlikely but still nice just in case)
If we could somehow get the 21st pick with him that would be amazing. Another asset to trade for wing depth maybe.
I think you missed the point of my other thread.
The point of the trade is not to land Wiggins & Dieng. The point of the trade is to land #11, Covington, and future unprotected 1sts.
Wiggins is a much worse contract than Adams. In this case, Adams is more or less the prize (#21 is likely how much it costs to dump Schroder), but that prize does not complement our promising rookie PF.
As for Dieng's shooting...
.830 FT%
.462 10-16 ft midrange%
.455 16-3pt midrange%
.429 corner 3pt% (.381 for his career)
The point of the trade is not to land Wiggins & Dieng. The point of the trade is to land #11, Covington, and future unprotected 1sts.
Wiggins is a much worse contract than Adams. In this case, Adams is more or less the prize (#21 is likely how much it costs to dump Schroder), but that prize does not complement our promising rookie PF.
As for Dieng's shooting...
.830 FT%
.462 10-16 ft midrange%
.455 16-3pt midrange%
.429 corner 3pt% (.381 for his career)
In an ideal world yes but there is just not a perfect C out there that will bring everything you want next to Bagley.
I saw rebounding and interior D as out most pressing issues last season due to our C not caring about those aspects of the game. We shot the ball well as a team and once could argue that's because we had Bjelica there with WCS most of the time.
Bagley will need to develop a jump shot going forward if he is going to fulfill that potential. Whoever you put next to him will not be a perfect fit. Lopez provides spacing and shot blocking but is allergic to rebounding. So you fix one problem but not address the other.
We need a genuine starter/borderline all-star at the position for the things we need that player to do. That is defend, rebound, set screens, rim run, gets his points off the scraps or out of pick and roll. Is it a perfect fit? No but there is no perfect fit out there. Vucevic is probably as close as it gets but he also is someone who likes to operate in the post and his main attribute is his offensive game
You hope that Giles develops into a perfect fit but one does not exist out there that we can genuinely get. So the question becomes what do you value more, shooting from you C or more of the traditional C attributes.
I think the team has a fair bit of shooting out there and Bagley and Fox will continue to develop that part of their game. I can see those issues getting covered by their improvement. The rebounding and defending part is the area of our greatest need. An interior defender and rebounder who will set picks offensive and score of scraps. If we were a terrible shooting team, then a C that shoots might be more of a priority but we are not. We are pretty good at it and are likely to launch more 3s than we did last season. We need someone who stays out of the way and rebounds those misses.
I saw rebounding and interior D as out most pressing issues last season due to our C not caring about those aspects of the game. We shot the ball well as a team and once could argue that's because we had Bjelica there with WCS most of the time.
Bagley will need to develop a jump shot going forward if he is going to fulfill that potential. Whoever you put next to him will not be a perfect fit. Lopez provides spacing and shot blocking but is allergic to rebounding. So you fix one problem but not address the other.
We need a genuine starter/borderline all-star at the position for the things we need that player to do. That is defend, rebound, set screens, rim run, gets his points off the scraps or out of pick and roll. Is it a perfect fit? No but there is no perfect fit out there. Vucevic is probably as close as it gets but he also is someone who likes to operate in the post and his main attribute is his offensive game
You hope that Giles develops into a perfect fit but one does not exist out there that we can genuinely get. So the question becomes what do you value more, shooting from you C or more of the traditional C attributes.
I think the team has a fair bit of shooting out there and Bagley and Fox will continue to develop that part of their game. I can see those issues getting covered by their improvement. The rebounding and defending part is the area of our greatest need. An interior defender and rebounder who will set picks offensive and score of scraps. If we were a terrible shooting team, then a C that shoots might be more of a priority but we are not. We are pretty good at it and are likely to launch more 3s than we did last season. We need someone who stays out of the way and rebounds those misses.
Go get Adams and Harris
If Vlade was smart, Get OKC’s pick this year and 2020 pick unprotected. Adams and Jerami Grant. Who, Shot 39 percent from 3 last year. Then offer Harris the max. Sign Boban. Then, Sign NIkilitina as a back up for Fox.
Fox/Nkilitina
Hield/Bogi
Harris/Grant
Bagley/Giles
Adams/Boban
That could be a playoff team. If Fox develops a consistent 3 pt shot. You would always have 3 shooters on the fl
If Vlade was smart, Get OKC’s pick this year and 2020 pick unprotected. Adams and Jerami Grant. Who, Shot 39 percent from 3 last year. Then offer Harris the max. Sign Boban. Then, Sign NIkilitina as a back up for Fox.
Fox/Nkilitina
Hield/Bogi
Harris/Grant
Bagley/Giles
Adams/Boban
That could be a playoff team. If Fox develops a consistent 3 pt shot. You would always have 3 shooters on the fl
Adams and Schroder would be terrific gets IMO. The whole idea that Adams is a dinosaur center..?.. i would add Bill Laimbeer to this team to add toughness, we have plenty of finesse.
Schroder was high on my list the year he was drafted, seems he would be a real nice guard complement. Add that 21st pick and a resigned Barnes recon that's a super productive offseason.
Schroder was high on my list the year he was drafted, seems he would be a real nice guard complement. Add that 21st pick and a resigned Barnes recon that's a super productive offseason.
There could be one area where Adams makes up for a lack of shooting and that's in screening. Both he and Deandre Jordan (who should be on the FA target short list IMO) would get Buddy and Bogdan open look after open look. One of the biggest problems for this team last year was that WCS is not a great screener and he can't shoot. Or rather he won't shoot. Also Adams would provide some bruising post play. If he can be had for cheap there is no question he makes the team better.
Stats below are filtered on Cs who played more than 29 games and more than 399 minutes last year:
He's not good...
- 2.0 3PA per36 = 28th among Cs
- .339 3PT% (Overall) = 18th among Cs that shot more than 1.0 3PA per36
- .500 3PT% (Left Corner) = 4th among Cs
- .316 3PT% (Right Corner) = 8th among Cs
- .188 3PT% (Above the Break) = 40th among Cs
- .273 3PT% (Defender 4-6 Feet Away) = 14th among Cs
- .423 3PT% (Defender 6+ Feet Away) = 4th among Cs
- .362 3PT% (Catch & Shoot) = 16th among Cs
- .222 3PT% (Pull-Ups) = 10th among Cs
- .469 Midrange % = 5th among Cs
- .830 FT% = 5th among Cs
He's not good...
- Above the break
- On pull-ups
- When a defender is 0-6 feet away from him
Who said anything about perfect? Adams is very far from perfect. That's the point.
Right, and Bagley would replace Cauley-Stein as our rim runner, interior presence. You're basically forcing Bagley to work from the perimeter if you pair him with Adams. We should be taking steps to set our young guys up for success.
Well, sure. Developing a jump shot is important for his potential, but it's asinine to think that the spacing will be fine if he develops a consistent 3pt shot. Bagley is an interior force. That's his strength. He's going to need the lane cleared so he can punish teams and go to work. Adams hinders that strength of his.
Again, who said perfect fit? Give me a good fit. Adams is not a good fit.
Only people that look at the raw rebounding stats think Lopez is allergic to rebounding. He makes his team better on the defensive glass. He consistently does every year.
Again, who said perfect fit? Give me a good fit. Give me a guy who can defend and shoot, and I'll be happy. Adams is 50% of the way there. That's not good enough. We invested the 2nd pick in Bagley. The least we can do is put him in a position to succeed.
I've stated before to look to the draft to find a long term fit. Bol Bol, Hayes, Klabengele, & Claxton all have that 3&D C potential. Pick-up a good, short term fit in the meantime (Horford, Lopez, Dedmon, Dieng). You act like we have to pick one or the other (shooting or defense), when there are still options to go down a better path.
Again, it's not about Bagley developing his shot (which is still important). It's about making sure there is space for him to operate.
The rebounding actually improved a lot after the Barnes trade. We had a .702 DREB% before the trade and had a .735 DREB% after the trade. That would have been good for 10th in the league. He had a blistering +4.5% DREB% On/Off. Barnes team's have been better at defensive rebounding when he's on the floor every season he's played (similar to B. Lopez). I don't think the rebounding is as big of an issue as you make it out to be.
You say "we need someone who stays out of the way." Adams will be in the way maybe not in the traditional sense of demanding the ball, but he will be crowding the paint.
Just to give you a sense for why it's important we pair Bagley with a guy who can defend and hit a three these are the on/off numbers for his various frontcourt pairings:
Bagley/Bjelica (249 min) = 110.3 ORTG / 107.3 DRTG / +3.0 NetRTG
Bagley/WCS (477 min) = 104.3 ORTG / 104.9 DRTG / -0.6 NetRTG
Bagley/Koufos (200 min): 102.9 ORTG / 106.0 DRTG / -3.1 NetRTG
Bagley/Giles (449 min): 103.4 ORTG / 109.3 DRTG / -5.9 NetRTG
As a reference to compare the numbers above:
SAC Ratings Last Year = 109.5 ORTG / 110.8 DRTG / -1.3 NetRTG
Best Ratings in League = 114.9 ORTG / 104.9 DRTG / +8.6 NetRTG
Worst Ratings in League = 104.0 ORTG / 116.7 DRTG / -10.0 NetRTG
The offense drops off a cliff when Bagley has to share the floor with a big man who can't shoot, yet you're advocating for just that. Despite Bjelica's defensive shortcomings, they were still able to produce a positive NetRTG in large part due to the offensive combo.
We need to pair him with a 3&D C. Anything short of that, and we're doing him & this team a disservice.
Right, and Bagley would replace Cauley-Stein as our rim runner, interior presence. You're basically forcing Bagley to work from the perimeter if you pair him with Adams. We should be taking steps to set our young guys up for success.
Well, sure. Developing a jump shot is important for his potential, but it's asinine to think that the spacing will be fine if he develops a consistent 3pt shot. Bagley is an interior force. That's his strength. He's going to need the lane cleared so he can punish teams and go to work. Adams hinders that strength of his.
Again, who said perfect fit? Give me a good fit. Adams is not a good fit.
Only people that look at the raw rebounding stats think Lopez is allergic to rebounding. He makes his team better on the defensive glass. He consistently does every year.
Again, who said perfect fit? Give me a good fit. Give me a guy who can defend and shoot, and I'll be happy. Adams is 50% of the way there. That's not good enough. We invested the 2nd pick in Bagley. The least we can do is put him in a position to succeed.
I've stated before to look to the draft to find a long term fit. Bol Bol, Hayes, Klabengele, & Claxton all have that 3&D C potential. Pick-up a good, short term fit in the meantime (Horford, Lopez, Dedmon, Dieng). You act like we have to pick one or the other (shooting or defense), when there are still options to go down a better path.
Again, it's not about Bagley developing his shot (which is still important). It's about making sure there is space for him to operate.
The rebounding actually improved a lot after the Barnes trade. We had a .702 DREB% before the trade and had a .735 DREB% after the trade. That would have been good for 10th in the league. He had a blistering +4.5% DREB% On/Off. Barnes team's have been better at defensive rebounding when he's on the floor every season he's played (similar to B. Lopez). I don't think the rebounding is as big of an issue as you make it out to be.
You say "we need someone who stays out of the way." Adams will be in the way maybe not in the traditional sense of demanding the ball, but he will be crowding the paint.
Just to give you a sense for why it's important we pair Bagley with a guy who can defend and hit a three these are the on/off numbers for his various frontcourt pairings:
Bagley/Bjelica (249 min) = 110.3 ORTG / 107.3 DRTG / +3.0 NetRTG
Bagley/WCS (477 min) = 104.3 ORTG / 104.9 DRTG / -0.6 NetRTG
Bagley/Koufos (200 min): 102.9 ORTG / 106.0 DRTG / -3.1 NetRTG
Bagley/Giles (449 min): 103.4 ORTG / 109.3 DRTG / -5.9 NetRTG
As a reference to compare the numbers above:
SAC Ratings Last Year = 109.5 ORTG / 110.8 DRTG / -1.3 NetRTG
Best Ratings in League = 114.9 ORTG / 104.9 DRTG / +8.6 NetRTG
Worst Ratings in League = 104.0 ORTG / 116.7 DRTG / -10.0 NetRTG
The offense drops off a cliff when Bagley has to share the floor with a big man who can't shoot, yet you're advocating for just that. Despite Bjelica's defensive shortcomings, they were still able to produce a positive NetRTG in large part due to the offensive combo.
We need to pair him with a 3&D C. Anything short of that, and we're doing him & this team a disservice.
Appreciate the effort and thought put into this post. We disagree on the fundamental thing for the analysis. I think our biggest issue has been lack of rebounding and interior defense, you don’t think that its a huge issue so the analysis for either of us gets skewed one way or the other.
It looks like Lopez will be re-signing with Bucks anyway so the options become even more limited. We know that we will need a C next to Bagley next year and we both probably think that it won’t be WCS.
It looks like Lopez will be re-signing with Bucks anyway so the options become even more limited. We know that we will need a C next to Bagley next year and we both probably think that it won’t be WCS.
Good analysis here, but you're making assumptions off Bagley rookie numbers, when pretty much all rookies are bad and don't contribute to winning (with a few outliers of course). We can't just assume Bagley isn't going to make strides in his game, especially as he becomes the focal point of the offense.The difficult part is really none of the young core, outside of Buddy probably, has defined themselves as a player yet, which makes it difficult to know exactly the sort talent you want to surround them with.
I'm not saying I disagree at all with the premise he needs a 3&D C next to him to be fully optimized; but when you can get flat out clear player upgrade in all areas (which Adams is) with tremendous playoff experience and is young enough to fit with this core for a really small price,you take that opportunity to do so, even if he's not the ideal partner him. I know you're big on getting one of the rookie bigs, but you're basically waiting at least 2 years for them to be useful at all; in which we lose this 2-3 year window where we can actually make a real playoff push while the young guys are still cheap.
I'm not saying I disagree at all with the premise he needs a 3&D C next to him to be fully optimized; but when you can get flat out clear player upgrade in all areas (which Adams is) with tremendous playoff experience and is young enough to fit with this core for a really small price,you take that opportunity to do so, even if he's not the ideal partner him. I know you're big on getting one of the rookie bigs, but you're basically waiting at least 2 years for them to be useful at all; in which we lose this 2-3 year window where we can actually make a real playoff push while the young guys are still cheap.
I agree with you. The minute we spent a valuable premium asset on Bagley, we accepted that we are building to his strenghts and that means we need to have a specific type of center playing next to him when he is not playing the center himself. There is no reason to rush and pay a big salary to a big name guy just because that guy happens to play the position. The guy has to fit well and that means it has to be a floor spacing defender.
Bagley as a pick'n roll screener can be extremely dangerous but if you have a non shooter standing under the basket, you drastically decrease the effectiveness of those type of possessions. Pick'n roll with three shooters means either an open lane for the screener or very heavy rotations from 3point line to the paint but with a non shooter standing under the basket it becomes much easier to defend since it forces just light rotations and it takes away a lot of room from the screener since there is a big defender in the paint ready to contest.
Getting Adams to replace WCS would obviously make the team better but WCS was never the long term answer after we drafted Bagley. Adams brings value but that value isnt maximized here because Bagleys value would take a hit. That situation isnt worth 25mil/year especially when there are either much better options (Horford) or cheaper options (Dedmond, Lopez, possibly draft) available.
Edit: And then theres the option of Bagley playing mostly center and I think it could be worth taking a look. Signing a backup C for under 5mil would leave us cap to extend Barnes and stack up on wings and guys like Beverley
Bagley as a pick'n roll screener can be extremely dangerous but if you have a non shooter standing under the basket, you drastically decrease the effectiveness of those type of possessions. Pick'n roll with three shooters means either an open lane for the screener or very heavy rotations from 3point line to the paint but with a non shooter standing under the basket it becomes much easier to defend since it forces just light rotations and it takes away a lot of room from the screener since there is a big defender in the paint ready to contest.
Getting Adams to replace WCS would obviously make the team better but WCS was never the long term answer after we drafted Bagley. Adams brings value but that value isnt maximized here because Bagleys value would take a hit. That situation isnt worth 25mil/year especially when there are either much better options (Horford) or cheaper options (Dedmond, Lopez, possibly draft) available.
Edit: And then theres the option of Bagley playing mostly center and I think it could be worth taking a look. Signing a backup C for under 5mil would leave us cap to extend Barnes and stack up on wings and guys like Beverley
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Let’s put it this way. I didn’t want to sign a guy like Vucevic, Horford, Cousins, Lopez, Cauley-Stein, etc. to a $20 mil year deal because I didn’t think they were long term fits either due to their skill sets or age (or both). Adams has the age to fit the timeline but not the skill set. I’d rather use that cap space in a salary dump that sends us a better asset for a worse player because it will be easier to find a good fit next to Bagley Edith the more assets we have (whether that’s through a trade or the draft).
