C/PF off season discussion
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Guess it all depends on how much you believe in Giles. If you believe he will be equal or better than WCS, then him + Powell will be much better than 4th year WCS and rookie Giles were last year. So the Kings would improve as Giles improves.
Of the guys realistically available, I think only Vucevic and Jordan are better than WCS was last year. You're either stuck resigning WCS who I feel will revert back to his norm.....you're signing a stop gap in Jordan or you're taking a risk and signing Vucevic who will either get the Kings into the playoffs or be an albatross contract for years.
The rest of the guys don't really move the needle for me as far as really improving the team as a starter. If Giles improves, they improve the team quite a bit as backups though.
Of the guys realistically available, I think only Vucevic and Jordan are better than WCS was last year. You're either stuck resigning WCS who I feel will revert back to his norm.....you're signing a stop gap in Jordan or you're taking a risk and signing Vucevic who will either get the Kings into the playoffs or be an albatross contract for years.
The rest of the guys don't really move the needle for me as far as really improving the team as a starter. If Giles improves, they improve the team quite a bit as backups though.
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Powell hasn't played that many minutes, so the overall rebound numbers don't show us much. But if you look at it per 36 minutes over the two most recent seasons, Powell averaged:
9.25 Rebounds/game (3 offensive boards)
16 Points
59.5 FG%
75 FT%
2.2 Assists
1.4 Turnovers
1.2 Steals
.9 Blocks
4.2 PFs
Now let's look at Willie per 36 min, over the last two seasons. He averaged:
10 Rebounds (2.6 offensive)
16.1 Points
52.7 FG%
58.5 FT%
3.1 Assists
1.65 Turnovers
1.5 Steals
1 Blocks
3.5 PFs
So what can we deduce from this:
They rebound and score at about the same rate.
Powell has a much higher Field Goal % (nearly 60% for Powell vs nearly 53% for Willie)
Powell has a much higher Free Throw % (75% for Powell vs 58.5% for Willie)
Willie has slightly more Assists, while Powell has slightly fewer Turnovers
Steals and Blocks are pretty comparable, although Willie has a very slight edge
I'll take Powell if the price between them is anywhere near comparable. I also think that if Powell gets FT minutes, there is a chance that he ups his game to a new level. I don't think Willie has that in him.
9.25 Rebounds/game (3 offensive boards)
16 Points
59.5 FG%
75 FT%
2.2 Assists
1.4 Turnovers
1.2 Steals
.9 Blocks
4.2 PFs
Now let's look at Willie per 36 min, over the last two seasons. He averaged:
10 Rebounds (2.6 offensive)
16.1 Points
52.7 FG%
58.5 FT%
3.1 Assists
1.65 Turnovers
1.5 Steals
1 Blocks
3.5 PFs
So what can we deduce from this:
They rebound and score at about the same rate.
Powell has a much higher Field Goal % (nearly 60% for Powell vs nearly 53% for Willie)
Powell has a much higher Free Throw % (75% for Powell vs 58.5% for Willie)
Willie has slightly more Assists, while Powell has slightly fewer Turnovers
Steals and Blocks are pretty comparable, although Willie has a very slight edge
I'll take Powell if the price between them is anywhere near comparable. I also think that if Powell gets FT minutes, there is a chance that he ups his game to a new level. I don't think Willie has that in him.
Rather than signing non needle moving role players like Powell, in a worst case scenario Vlade needs to hang onto that money until the deadline. Capping yourself on players like Powell would be a mistake unless they came super cheap. I'm still totally down with Jordan Bell. He's getting a chance to raise his value again which sucks for both the Warriors and other teams but oh well.
Legit concern! I think Powell is better at the PF position where if he can improve his 3pt shot, he would fit the stretch 4 position. If I can bring Willie back for the same money I would have to pay Powell, the I'd take Willie. If you go look at their per 36 numbers, Willie is better in almost every category except blocking shots. Willie's defensive rating is 108 while Powell's is 110.
Why would someone want Powell, and not Dedmon. Dedmon is as good, if not better than Willie and Powell in almost every per 36 number. Dedmon is a legit 7 foot center, who has gotten better every year in the NBA, and who didn't start playing basketball until he was 18 years old, which means he's likely to have some improvement left in the tank. Nothing against Powell, but Willie and Dedmon both are better rebounders, and Dedmon is a better shot blocker.
Lastly, Dedmon shot 38% from the three last season. Willie doesn't shoot the three, and Powell who does, shot 30.7% last season, has never shot better than 33% in a season and has a lifetime average of 29.8%. You also might be able to get Dedmon cheaper than either Willie or Powell. Or not!
Why would someone want Powell, and not Dedmon. Dedmon is as good, if not better than Willie and Powell in almost every per 36 number. Dedmon is a legit 7 foot center, who has gotten better every year in the NBA, and who didn't start playing basketball until he was 18 years old, which means he's likely to have some improvement left in the tank. Nothing against Powell, but Willie and Dedmon both are better rebounders, and Dedmon is a better shot blocker.
Lastly, Dedmon shot 38% from the three last season. Willie doesn't shoot the three, and Powell who does, shot 30.7% last season, has never shot better than 33% in a season and has a lifetime average of 29.8%. You also might be able to get Dedmon cheaper than either Willie or Powell. Or not!
I tend to agree with you. The team needs to be thinking about improvement, not simply replacing someone with another player in some cases is a mirror reflection of the player your replacing. As you said, we want to move the needle. So whomever we sign, should be significantly better in a couple of category's than Willie. I could argue that neither Dedmon or Powell would be a difference maker. At least on paper. You never really know until the player is on the floor. Sometimes things just click, and wa la, your better.
I could argue that just moving Bagley to the starting center position, while not ideal right now, would certainly improve our rebounding at that position. Which is why I targeted Tobias Harris. Which lineup do you think would be better?
Center: Bagley
PF: Harris
SF: Barnes
SG: Hield
PG: Fox
Or
Center: Powell or Dedmon
PF: Bagley
SF: Barnes
SG: Hield
PG: Fox
Personally, I'm voting for the first one, because Bagley and Harris are a better combo than Powell and Bagley. I grant you that it's a more expensive lineup, but I don't think Harris is a max player and that he could be had for something like 22 to 25 mil a year. However, I do think he would move the needle. Granted, I don't know if Harris is even feasible, but that's the kind of target we should be looking at. The Kings sign Harris and Beverly, and I'm a happy man.
I could argue that just moving Bagley to the starting center position, while not ideal right now, would certainly improve our rebounding at that position. Which is why I targeted Tobias Harris. Which lineup do you think would be better?
Center: Bagley
PF: Harris
SF: Barnes
SG: Hield
PG: Fox
Or
Center: Powell or Dedmon
PF: Bagley
SF: Barnes
SG: Hield
PG: Fox
Personally, I'm voting for the first one, because Bagley and Harris are a better combo than Powell and Bagley. I grant you that it's a more expensive lineup, but I don't think Harris is a max player and that he could be had for something like 22 to 25 mil a year. However, I do think he would move the needle. Granted, I don't know if Harris is even feasible, but that's the kind of target we should be looking at. The Kings sign Harris and Beverly, and I'm a happy man.
The early word from Philly is that it might take the max to land him (and that the Kings are rumored to be interested)!
Source: https://www.philly.com/sixers/tobia...zz-pacers-20190521.html?__vfz=medium=sharebar
Considering the article was written by a Philadelphia beat writer, he's likely hearing this from Harris' agent, who has every incentive to make it sound like teams will be lining up to offer the max. Still, if I had to guess, I'd say Harris ends up with over $25 million per year.
Source: https://www.philly.com/sixers/tobia...zz-pacers-20190521.html?__vfz=medium=sharebar
Considering the article was written by a Philadelphia beat writer, he's likely hearing this from Harris' agent, who has every incentive to make it sound like teams will be lining up to offer the max. Still, if I had to guess, I'd say Harris ends up with over $25 million per year.
At some point, WCS needs to either fish or cut bait. For a lot of us, including people like myself who wanted to give WCS the benefit of every doubt, that time has come. There's an incredible potential within WCS - unfortunately, we don't know if he'll ever realize it to its full extent. He shows up some nights and other nights he seems like he'd rather be anywhere else. That's not what we want/need/deserve in a starting center.
We can't keep NOT replacing people who aren't doing the job. I personally think the only reason WCS wasn't moved at the deadline was because Vlade didn't get any decent offers.
We can't keep NOT replacing people who aren't doing the job. I personally think the only reason WCS wasn't moved at the deadline was because Vlade didn't get any decent offers.
I would love to see us get Harris but I cannot see how we do it. Getting Marjanović as a cheap back up C would also be a nice get of the best friends. Boban has familiarity with Bjelica, Bogdan and the front office.
Harris would be a HUGE get for us and would give as many minutes to Bagley, Giles with spot minutes to Marjanović. It would also make us a really dangerous team with deep shooting from just about every position.
Harris would be a HUGE get for us and would give as many minutes to Bagley, Giles with spot minutes to Marjanović. It would also make us a really dangerous team with deep shooting from just about every position.
Signing Dedmon or Powell to be our 3rd big doesn't mean we're not "moving the needle." You move the needle by improving the team. And that comes in all shapes and sizes. It doesn't mean that every player you sign (or give the keys to) has to be significantly better than the one they replaced/jumped ahead of.
Two high profile players gettting the most offseason "Kings" attention from the media are Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris. Both are terrific talents, but here's why I don't think either one moves the needle for the Kings:
Vucevic is an All Star and a fine all-around player, although routinely criticized for his defense. But, with the exception of a single quarter, he was terrible in the postseason this year as the Raptors targeted him with smothering defense and he could not find a way through. Until he proves otherwise, he will be suspect as a nice player who can't handle postseason pressure. Is this who we want to give a max contract to? Also a concern is how well he will fit in with our playing style/pace?
Harris probably should have been an All Star this past year when he was having his best season. Then the Clippers traded him to the 76ers where he could help Embid, Simmons and Butler become serious playoff contenders; maybe even champions. But he didn't rise to the occasion in the postseason. He wasn't terrible, but he played below his average. Again I ask, is this who we want to give a max contract to?
Now, if we don't resign Willie, we'll need a Center. Vucevic can be that player. He's not a rim runner, but he's pretty solid (except for the postseason concerns). But Harris is a PF (who can also play SF sometimes). PF is the one position we don't need to improve on, with Bagley, Giles and Beli all perhaps best suited for the PF position. Sometimes a team just needs to add talent and worry about who plays where later. But I think we're beyond that. We have lots of talent, but we need to strengthen ourselves at certain positions, like Center, backup PG, and backup SF. A max contract for Harris seems counter to that (unless Bags and Giles can fill the gap at Center).
Two high profile players gettting the most offseason "Kings" attention from the media are Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris. Both are terrific talents, but here's why I don't think either one moves the needle for the Kings:
Vucevic is an All Star and a fine all-around player, although routinely criticized for his defense. But, with the exception of a single quarter, he was terrible in the postseason this year as the Raptors targeted him with smothering defense and he could not find a way through. Until he proves otherwise, he will be suspect as a nice player who can't handle postseason pressure. Is this who we want to give a max contract to? Also a concern is how well he will fit in with our playing style/pace?
Harris probably should have been an All Star this past year when he was having his best season. Then the Clippers traded him to the 76ers where he could help Embid, Simmons and Butler become serious playoff contenders; maybe even champions. But he didn't rise to the occasion in the postseason. He wasn't terrible, but he played below his average. Again I ask, is this who we want to give a max contract to?
Now, if we don't resign Willie, we'll need a Center. Vucevic can be that player. He's not a rim runner, but he's pretty solid (except for the postseason concerns). But Harris is a PF (who can also play SF sometimes). PF is the one position we don't need to improve on, with Bagley, Giles and Beli all perhaps best suited for the PF position. Sometimes a team just needs to add talent and worry about who plays where later. But I think we're beyond that. We have lots of talent, but we need to strengthen ourselves at certain positions, like Center, backup PG, and backup SF. A max contract for Harris seems counter to that (unless Bags and Giles can fill the gap at Center).
Agreed. We would not want to anger the basketball gods by separating Tobi and Bobi. Plus, as you mention, Boban would provide the big body needed for certain match ups when the big rotation otherwise would be Bagley, Harris, Giles, and Bjelica. That sounds like a potential minutes crunch, but I think you play Harris as backup SF when Barnes sits, and keep Bogi more as a combo guard rather than a wing.
Again, though, Harris looks to be expensive.
Again, though, Harris looks to be expensive.
No disrespect, but I'll worry about the post season if and when we get there. Lets not put the cart before the horse. As for Vucevic's play in the post season, it wasn't a surprise. Most players who have never played in a playoff game are surprised by how physical the game suddenly becomes. How much more intense the defense becomes. So if you've never experienced it before, you can struggle, depending on how much of that defense is aimed at you.
In Vucevic's case, quite a bit of it was aimed at him. One of the reasons I wanted the Kings to get into the playoffs this year was so they could experience it. This is probably a poor example but, you can be a great Marine, or you can be a great Navy Seal, but you can't get to being a Navy Seal without going through the experience of Navy Seal training. That's an extreme example, but there is a parallel there. Point being, my opinion of Vucevic's value wasn't affected by his performance in the playoffs.
I agree with you that Vucevic isn't a rim runner, but the Magic were a team that played at a very fast pace, so he would be used to getting up and down the court. The main concern with Vucevic to my mind is how much will it take to acquire him? I think we would all be happy to have him on the team, and there's little doubt that he's a far better overall player than Willie. He makes us better, but question is, how much better?
I suggested Harris with the idea that maybe the Kings see Bagley as our future center, and if so, then Harris makes more sense. Yes we have Bjelica, and Giles, but Harris is a far better overall player than either of them right now, and I doubt the Kings have long term plans for Bjelica beyond this coming season. If Giles starts to show he can compete with Harris for minutes, me thinks that's a good thing. If the Kings don't see Bagley as a center, then forget the whole thing.
In Vucevic's case, quite a bit of it was aimed at him. One of the reasons I wanted the Kings to get into the playoffs this year was so they could experience it. This is probably a poor example but, you can be a great Marine, or you can be a great Navy Seal, but you can't get to being a Navy Seal without going through the experience of Navy Seal training. That's an extreme example, but there is a parallel there. Point being, my opinion of Vucevic's value wasn't affected by his performance in the playoffs.
I agree with you that Vucevic isn't a rim runner, but the Magic were a team that played at a very fast pace, so he would be used to getting up and down the court. The main concern with Vucevic to my mind is how much will it take to acquire him? I think we would all be happy to have him on the team, and there's little doubt that he's a far better overall player than Willie. He makes us better, but question is, how much better?
I suggested Harris with the idea that maybe the Kings see Bagley as our future center, and if so, then Harris makes more sense. Yes we have Bjelica, and Giles, but Harris is a far better overall player than either of them right now, and I doubt the Kings have long term plans for Bjelica beyond this coming season. If Giles starts to show he can compete with Harris for minutes, me thinks that's a good thing. If the Kings don't see Bagley as a center, then forget the whole thing.
I don't know that I would call Dedmon a fan favorite, but would be a good replacement. He is similar to WCS in most areas. Willie is a better at assists, steals & getting to the line. Dedmon is better at blocking shots, FTs (81%) & 3pt shots (38% on 3.4/game). They are about the same defensively with WCS better on the perimeter & Dedmon better in the paint.