I haven't been able to watch much college basketball this year outside of some games and highlights(barely been able to watch Kings games). Not sure if I have said this before, but I always appreciate your draft insights and scouting. You have an amazing eye for finding guys in the 2nd round. I attended my first game of the season vs. the Portland Trailblazers. One guy who stood out was Jake Layman. I immediately thought about you, as you were the one who introduced me to him on this forum. No clue why Portland only gave him 22mins when he pretty much shredded us on both ends of the floor. He followed up that 12pt game with 18, 20, and 12 in his next 3. It's taken him 3 years with the Blazers on DNPs, but he looks like he's finally able to put it together.
I'm really curious on what your approach is when it comes to 2nd round picks. What are a few traits that you look for in them?
Another question...were you a former scout? Serious question, if not, why the heck weren't you? I'll be honest, over the years I've followed Chad Ford, Fan Fraschilla, Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz, and the newer Stephien guys, and while Givony and Schmitz come extremely close, I've always found you to be the most knowledgeable and insightful.
Well first of all, thank you. Much appreciated! It's will take me a while to deflate my very large head. Well seriously, I've bee watching college and NBA basketball for over 50 years, and during that time I've made my share of mistakes, but I like to believe I've learned from those mistakes. Regardless of how much experience you might have at this, it's still a bit of a crap shoot because the players are human beings, and therefore unpredictable. But by and large if you do all your homework, you can be pretty accurate.
First rule is to pay no attention to others. By others, I mean other people that are scouting like you are. Trust yourself, even if what you believe runs contrary to what other mock drafts might say. Believe your own eye's. A lot of prognosticators let their ego get in the way and get locked in to one belief. I seldom if ever look at a mock draft during the season because I don't want to be influenced in any way. Sometimes the other mocks will eventually come to see things the way you do. If your right!
When your looking at players in the 2nd rd you usually end up looking at juniors and seniors who have had 3 or 4 years of college experience. In many cases, late bloomers, or players that perhaps came to the game late, and therefore are a bit behind the curve. Not all 19 year old's are created equal. And because of that, some will get overlooked by the big programs. For instance, I always like to look for players that were 6'2"guards their freshman year of highschool, and end up being 6'11" centers by their senior year. Many will retain their guard skill level. Anthony Davis springs to mind.
Sometimes that doesn't work, Jason Thompson springs to mind. I always look for skill level first. Can they shoot, pass, dribble and do they seem to have a good feel for the game. Obvious things! To the best of your ability, try to find out about the players work ethic, and his desire. Many times you can go to the school newspaper or website and pick up a lot of info about a player.
The single most important thing, other than the obvious, is to take notice when a player you perhaps never heard of, stands out. He plays with confidence and looks like he belongs out there. Write down his name and make a note to take another look at him to make sure that it wasn't a one game aberration. It's easy to get locked in on the obvious names and ignore a really good performance by an unknown player.
I remember the first time I saw Donte DiVincenzo. I was watching Villanova to see Bridges and Spellman play, but when DiVincenzo came into the game I couldn't take my eye's off of him. I thought, man, this kid is good. From that moment on, I watched Villanova to see Donte play. I had already watched Bridges play for two years, so I was fairly sure of what he was. I wasn't sold on Paschall, but he may yet convince me. I haven't given up yet. So my advice is to really pay attention to all the players, and not just the top players. I stumbled across Parsons that way, Ditto Layman.
I also watch a fair share of high school basketball, and it's much easier to see the top guys now with most of them going to the academy schools, instead of being scattered across the country. I watched Matt Barnes play in person a lot since he was from Sacramento, and he was bud's with my best friend's son, who was his point guard at Del Campo. Their coach sucked big time, which left Barnes ill prepared for UCLA.
Which brings me to another point. If you want to be good at this, you have to know all the college coaches, and how they coach, or develop players. You have to take that into consideration when scouting a player. Was the player put in the best position to shine? Was he asked to play out of position. Did he get enough minutes for you to make a proper judgement. One thing I look for with 2nd rounders is does the player have at least one thing he does really really well, and if so, does the rest of his game look improvable.
Sometimes you won't get excited until a players 2nd or 3rd year. A player you noticed in his freshman year, might take a big step forward in his 2nd year. That's what happened with Kevin Huerter at Maryland. I liked his potential the first time I saw him, but my goodness, he really improved between his freshman and sophmore years. Unfortunately he improved a bit too much and ended up going higher than I originally thought. But I think the kid is going to be a star down the road. I noticed similar growth in Chandler Hutchinson as well. So look for growth in a player. You want to see it every year in school. If not, maybe you walk away.
I tend to shy away from extremely athletic players that haven't developed any significant skills. I tend to shy away from players that like to shoot the rock, but aren't efficient doing so. And I tend to shy away from undersized players for their position, but I can be convinced. I'm a bit skeptical of one year wonders when it belies past history. For that reason I wasn't totally sold on Justin Jackson, but it looks like he may turn out OK. Don't see him as a starter though, although right now, I would start him over Shumpert.
Mostly, trust yourself, and, allow your mind to change. And never never ever make a judgement on a player based on only one or two games. I tend to see the top guys play at least 20 times, and the lesser one's like Huerter at least 10 times. Otherwise you might see them in the best game of their life, or the worse game of their life. Gotta see them a bunch of times to be sure. I saw Thomas Robinson play at least 25/30 times over two years, and I was never convinced he'd make it in the NBA, much less be a top pick. I never would have drafted him. By the same token, I wouldn't have drafted Jimmer, but I did think he was capable of playing in the NBA. So what the hell do I know?
