What can Kings fans expect from Marvin Bagley?
- Thread starter VF21
- Start date
I would expect maximum effort, rebounding, improvement on defense and playing within the offense at the directin of Coach J.
Any guy with a 42 inch vertical is going to make some highlight reels.
All you can really expect is that he plays hard and is coachable. Rest on offense if you have to, not defense.
Any guy with a 42 inch vertical is going to make some highlight reels.
All you can really expect is that he plays hard and is coachable. Rest on offense if you have to, not defense.
For his rookie season, he will be maddenly frustrating to watch and he will also make your jaw drop. There will be games where he gets outplayed by a G-Leaguer and then other games where he will be toe to toe with an All-Star. The hustle will be there but the production will be inconsistent. Defensively, he will be better than advertised but with flaws. Offensively, he will struggle against some systems.
With that said, I expect him to establish himself as a key piece by the All-Star break and making a strong case to be the Kings' starting PF by the season's end.
With that said, I expect him to establish himself as a key piece by the All-Star break and making a strong case to be the Kings' starting PF by the season's end.
He has the tools to be an elite defender, not as a rim protector but a guy with physical tools where he can guard 1-5. The question is how willing is he? And why has he been known as a poor defender up until now? Maybe has never been taught how to play defense properly. Maybe he can become a Shawn Marion type with better scoring. Him becoming a good defender will do wonders for his ceiling.
Koufos will lead us in blocks per 36. But he's not going to lead us in minutes. Or he'd better not. Joerger needs to give most of the minutes/opportunities to Giles and Bagley, and to WCS and Skal - if they earn them. All four of them have the potential to emerge as decent shotblockers this season. But none of them is a Gobert waiting to be discovered. When did anyone criticize Kevin Garnett for being (only) a decent shotblocker? If you've got other tools to make an impact on the defensive end, putting too much emphasis on shotblocking compromises your other assets.
I expect he adds some major grit to this team (and that also goes for Giles, Yogi and Bjelica). It's very hard for me though to envision what his role is on the team and how he's used because Joerger is the wild card. He's going to have a major impact on Bagley one way or the other. Is it going to be a team that strolls up the floor and throws the ball into Bagley into the post? (Good luck with that). Or is going to be a team on a mission to fast break, and in the half court to move without the ball? The former situation would not play to Bagley's advantage; it's much more of an offense for an Ayton, not a Bagley. The latter type of offense could, however, showcase Bagley's strengths, and if that happens I think we're going to have a lot of fun watching Marvin Bagley this season.
Personally I don't like that excuse being used. People use it a lot to explain away WCS's lack of shot blocking. There are plenty of other big men in the league that switch defensively and still get back in time to protect the rim and rack up blocks. WCS isn't the only big man that defends that way he does so there are no excuses there. He's also elite in terms of size and length, yet extremely mediocre when it comes to shot blocking. Somewhere around 65th in league or so in block percentage. There shouldn't be any excuses for any of our other big men either. They are all either long, athletic or both. Being among the league leaders in shot blocking doesn't automatically make you a good defender but when you look at the list it's going to be stacked with some of the best defenders in the league with a few outliers here and there that block shots but don't defend well overall.
I think the concept of defending 1-5 is a fantasy.
NO 6'11' player can guard point guards. Not Willie, nobody. True most of the time at the 2.
You can put a big man on a guard at the end of a game when the shot is likely to be taken from behind the arc. Otherwise they drive past the big man.
Bagley is like a lot of talented players with elite skills. That get through high school and college without playing much defense. Coaches do not focus on it. In the NBA it is different, everyone plays defense except Randolph. The road map for Bagley to make it to elite status means he is going to have to learn to play defense.
NO 6'11' player can guard point guards. Not Willie, nobody. True most of the time at the 2.
You can put a big man on a guard at the end of a game when the shot is likely to be taken from behind the arc. Otherwise they drive past the big man.
Bagley is like a lot of talented players with elite skills. That get through high school and college without playing much defense. Coaches do not focus on it. In the NBA it is different, everyone plays defense except Randolph. The road map for Bagley to make it to elite status means he is going to have to learn to play defense.
Draymond Green can, and it's not so much guard PG's it's switch onto them with the NBA using so much ball screens now and be able to hold your own. Kings don't have the personnel to run a switching system but it would be nice if Giles and Bagley were to develop into guys that can guard well on the perimeter.
While I'm still not happy with the Bagley pick, I think we can expect a high volume, volatile and inefficient season from him, where minutes and likely injuries will cause further fluctuation.
When he gets minutes, Bagley will put up a high volume of shots, but due to his skinny/somewhat-soft frame, poor wingspan and inability to use his right hand means he will likely put up a low FG% on this volume in year one. I'm expecting a Julius Randle curve here... 43% to end the year as:
Needless to say, it'll be a frustrating season w/ Bags and he won't get enough minutes, but the promise of his development and a new "youth-oriented, faster pace coach" will help the team sell tickets next summer, so there's hope and a business reason to help him succeed. Roughly predicting 26mpg, 13pts, 7.5 reb, 43% FG, 29% 3P, 1.2 APG, 2.3 TO, .7 steals, .8 blocks... good for a 12-14 PER.
When he gets minutes, Bagley will put up a high volume of shots, but due to his skinny/somewhat-soft frame, poor wingspan and inability to use his right hand means he will likely put up a low FG% on this volume in year one. I'm expecting a Julius Randle curve here... 43% to end the year as:
- defenders will quickly counter his post moves to make him use his right hand
- coaches will implement schemes to keep him out of the paint (putting stronger/heavier defenders on him) and he will force up tough mid-range shots (typical reason why skinny guys tend to stay out of the paint more once they get to the NBA)
- his short wingspan makes his shot easier to block against longer and more athletic defenders
- his low FT% is indicative that his 39% 3P percentage was a fluke and will likely regress to the 25-32% range in year 1
- lack of strength and weight vs. NBA bigs = box him out easier vs college
- short wingspan means less ability to grab/tip ball on rebounds vs longer defenders (even with his hops/second jump)
Needless to say, it'll be a frustrating season w/ Bags and he won't get enough minutes, but the promise of his development and a new "youth-oriented, faster pace coach" will help the team sell tickets next summer, so there's hope and a business reason to help him succeed. Roughly predicting 26mpg, 13pts, 7.5 reb, 43% FG, 29% 3P, 1.2 APG, 2.3 TO, .7 steals, .8 blocks... good for a 12-14 PER.
I think he's being on the bearish side of things but if he posted that about McLemore, TRob, Jimmer or Stauskas before the start of their rookie seasons, he wouldn't have been wrong so for us Kings fans it's not like this scenario isn't something we've never seen come to fruition. Lamarcus Aldridge's numbers looked just as bad his rookie year as well and he turned out ok so it's not like it's a nail in the coffin if he's not a ROY candidate this year.
That game against the Suns was the best Bagley looked defensively and made me wonder if defending centers may be better for him, at least early on. Giles has the makings of a guy who can cover either position but Bagley didn't look half bad when defending 5s in SL because it seemed like he didn't have to think as much and could just go off of his natural reactions.
The good: He is very active, possibly an elite big man ball handler in the making and has exceptional athleticism and body control in the air.
The bad: He's not a guy you can just throw the ball to and have him go to work in the post. He lacks strength and has the obvious one hand issue.
He's more of a project than I initially thought and I thought he was more of a project than most people back when we were discussing possible draft picks. If he puts up the numbers One and Done posted, it wouldn't surprise me the least bit. I don't think he's going to be a double double machine this year like some people thought. I don't think he's a safe pick at all either. He's going to have to be able to work in the post and punish smaller players badly if he's going to have a successful career. By smaller players, I don't mean guards. I mean stretch 4s and players like Derrick Jones Jr whom he struggled mightily against in SL. If he can't dominate those guys in the future, he won't have a big impact on the league and he certainly won't have the impact that a 2nd overall pick should have.
If his game develops and he's able to punish stretch 4s and shoot 35% or so from 3, he should be a solid player for years to come. It might take 2-3 years for that to come together though.
That game against the Suns was the best Bagley looked defensively and made me wonder if defending centers may be better for him, at least early on. Giles has the makings of a guy who can cover either position but Bagley didn't look half bad when defending 5s in SL because it seemed like he didn't have to think as much and could just go off of his natural reactions.
The good: He is very active, possibly an elite big man ball handler in the making and has exceptional athleticism and body control in the air.
The bad: He's not a guy you can just throw the ball to and have him go to work in the post. He lacks strength and has the obvious one hand issue.
He's more of a project than I initially thought and I thought he was more of a project than most people back when we were discussing possible draft picks. If he puts up the numbers One and Done posted, it wouldn't surprise me the least bit. I don't think he's going to be a double double machine this year like some people thought. I don't think he's a safe pick at all either. He's going to have to be able to work in the post and punish smaller players badly if he's going to have a successful career. By smaller players, I don't mean guards. I mean stretch 4s and players like Derrick Jones Jr whom he struggled mightily against in SL. If he can't dominate those guys in the future, he won't have a big impact on the league and he certainly won't have the impact that a 2nd overall pick should have.
If his game develops and he's able to punish stretch 4s and shoot 35% or so from 3, he should be a solid player for years to come. It might take 2-3 years for that to come together though.
Draymond Green can't guard all the C's. People take this too far. Did you ever see 6'7" Draymond Green vs someone like Rudy Gobert, or Joel Embiid, he can barely bother those guys.
Utah goes big vs that small lineup, thats what they do, and the Warriors always give em a ton of credit at the end of the game, Gobert vs those type of lineups, it's like he's playing pattycake with himself at the rim, above everyone else on the court.
They ofcourse have such incredible firepower on the perimeter that this advantage to the bigs over draymond is often moot. doesn't mean it doesn't happen tho.
Utah goes big vs that small lineup, thats what they do, and the Warriors always give em a ton of credit at the end of the game, Gobert vs those type of lineups, it's like he's playing pattycake with himself at the rim, above everyone else on the court.
They ofcourse have such incredible firepower on the perimeter that this advantage to the bigs over draymond is often moot. doesn't mean it doesn't happen tho.