Marvin Bagley III
- Thread starter jcassio
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He's making valid points but you guys keep taking his points to the absolute extreme. He's just talking about positional value in basketball and you guys are refuting his points with Lebron, KD, the Warriors and championships. Lets look at this from a non extreme stand point.
How many teams have a big man as their best player?
Pelicans
76ers (although Ben Simmons was their best player last year)
Utah
Spurs
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Nuggets
Clippers
Pistons
Knicks
Orlando
Grizzlies
4 playoff teams. Spurs dropped from 2nd to 7th with Aldridge leading the way instead of Kawhi.
How many teams have a non defending big man as their best player?
Spurs
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Nuggets
Knicks
Orlando
A 7th seed, a 9th seed with a unicorn triple double big and 2 garbage teams.
Almost all the playoff teams are led by guards and wings with good defensive big men. 4 of the 8 playoff teams in the West are built this way. 6 of the 8 teams in the East are built this way. It's obviously the easiest way to go about building a playoff team and you don't need a hall of fame player to make the playoffs. Which is all we should be concentrating on at the moment. His argument is legit and it's not about refuting it with absolutes because there are obviously other ways to make it to the playoffs but it's very obvious which way is the easiest. Teams that are led by guards and wings with defensive/rebounding big men are the ones that have the easiest path to success.
How many teams have a big man as their best player?
Pelicans
76ers (although Ben Simmons was their best player last year)
Utah
Spurs
----------------
Nuggets
Clippers
Pistons
Knicks
Orlando
Grizzlies
4 playoff teams. Spurs dropped from 2nd to 7th with Aldridge leading the way instead of Kawhi.
How many teams have a non defending big man as their best player?
Spurs
----------------
Nuggets
Knicks
Orlando
A 7th seed, a 9th seed with a unicorn triple double big and 2 garbage teams.
Almost all the playoff teams are led by guards and wings with good defensive big men. 4 of the 8 playoff teams in the West are built this way. 6 of the 8 teams in the East are built this way. It's obviously the easiest way to go about building a playoff team and you don't need a hall of fame player to make the playoffs. Which is all we should be concentrating on at the moment. His argument is legit and it's not about refuting it with absolutes because there are obviously other ways to make it to the playoffs but it's very obvious which way is the easiest. Teams that are led by guards and wings with defensive/rebounding big men are the ones that have the easiest path to success.
You're still taking it to the extreme. It doesn't take transcendent hall of fame players to make the playoffs but it does take them to win the championship at the moment. You still have a ton of playoff teams led by guys like Oladipo, DeRozan, Irving, Wall, Butler and Lillard. Paul George was a perennial playoff contender for years and just finished 4th in the West this year. I don't care about championships right now. The Kings aren't competing with those players anytime soon. I just want to see the team make the playoffs and win more regular season games than they lose. It can be done with 2-3 good wings and a good defensive big man. It can also be done with a really good all around big man and a couple solid wings but it's much harder to win that way. Almost all the bottom dweller teams lack good guard and wing play but a handful of them have pretty solid bigs.
tyguy posted the numbers either earlier in this thread or another thread. Almost all of the top point guard/wing players are taken in the lottery. Only a couple of them are taken later in the first round. Yet on the flip side, a slew of solid bigs have been taken later in the first round and even the second. This is part of the reason why teams that have the good big men, don't have wings. You can't find nearly anything other than 3&D wings outside of the lottery. So if the wing is available at 2 and you deem him to be valued to go that high in the draft, you pick him and worry about your big man situation later. If the Kings are picking 14th in the draft the next time they have a first round pick, they're much more likely to be able to fill that PF or C position with that pick than they would if they still needed to find their go to wing.
tyguy posted the numbers either earlier in this thread or another thread. Almost all of the top point guard/wing players are taken in the lottery. Only a couple of them are taken later in the first round. Yet on the flip side, a slew of solid bigs have been taken later in the first round and even the second. This is part of the reason why teams that have the good big men, don't have wings. You can't find nearly anything other than 3&D wings outside of the lottery. So if the wing is available at 2 and you deem him to be valued to go that high in the draft, you pick him and worry about your big man situation later. If the Kings are picking 14th in the draft the next time they have a first round pick, they're much more likely to be able to fill that PF or C position with that pick than they would if they still needed to find their go to wing.
It should be noted that if Doncic didn't exist I would be advocating for JJJ because of defense and being able to flourish in an elite offense (with elite guards) as a finisher... Threes and and dunks. If Doncic was off the board I would want JJJ. Young would be wort ha shot a little later but im worried his freethrow rate wont transfer.
First of all "getting vibes" when you try to project any player is your first mistake. Second your vibes are relative to a bust and an emerging star Your vibes are conflicting. Randle averaged 20 / 9 / 3 on 56% shooting post all-star. His defense was plus on the post and pick and roll. T-Rob was never more than a 11th man in the league. Also, Randle and T-Rob are closer to 6'8". Bagley is 6'11".
I think Steve Francis, but I get your point.
Idk. I’d agree with you if we were drafting a “can’t miss” HOF prospect. But Dončić, Bagley, Porter, Jackson and other potential picks at #2 all have their pros and cons and none of them are guaranteed to become perennial All-Stars. Thus, for Vlade and the rest of the front office, wanting to play in Sacramento could be one of the determining factors in who they select.
Idk. I’d agree with you if we were drafting a “can’t miss” HOF prospect. But Dončić, Bagley, Porter, Jackson and other potential picks at #2 all have their pros and cons and none of them are guaranteed to become perennial All-Stars. Thus, for Vlade and the rest of the front office, wanting to play in Sacramento could be one of the determining factors in who they select.
Just because there are many good teams with good wing players, that doesn't mean the Kings have to follow the trend. I have never seen a team win a championship by being a follower.
The other side of the equation is: is there a wing player in this draft who can be that difference maker? I honestly don't see one. Maybe MPJ if everything breaks right and his back holds up, but I wouldn't want the Kings to bet on it. I like Doncic, but I don't see him as a can't-miss prospect. He will be a good solid piece to have, but the jury is still out on whether he is a franchise level wing player.
I will bet anything the next dynasty will not look like the Warriors. Why can't that dynasty be built around freakishly athletic bigs?
The NBA is about matchups. If any team is going small against Bagley and put a 6'-8" wing player to guard him, that's just inviting him to have a monster game. On the defensive end, Bagley is taller and more athletic than the wing player; so right there is a problem for any team that tries to small ball the Kings.
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San Antonio made the playoffs because of their defense (3rd) same goes for Boston with Horford and Utah with Gobert. This isn't dispelling the notion that you need the big man to be elite on defense to be worth taking with a high lottery pick. Hence why I have JJJ as the best big man and the guy I would take if Doncic wasn't here.
Again, I'm not talking about championships. I'm talking about getting the Kings into the playoffs.
Whether we personally believe Doncic can be the guy or not, he's being mocked by most people at 2 because they believe he is the 2nd best player in the draft. They don't mock potential role players at 2. There is a reason most people are so high on this guy.
Analytics say that the next dynasty won't be built around freakishly athletic bigs and the only way that'll happen is if you get the big men version of KD and Curry together on the same team. Almost all of the successful teams are running the same type of program because that's what the analytics say you need to do to win games. Teams are jacking up 3s at a rate we've never seen before and it's working for them. You aren't going to win by trading 2s for 3s unless you are a unicorn big man who can score extremely efficiently while playing elite defense on the other end.
AD and Cousins had a hell of a time trying to do exactly what you are suggesting. We don't have anyone who is even 1/3 as good as they are and we're somehow planning on starting a revolution with the same idea they had?
Whether we personally believe Doncic can be the guy or not, he's being mocked by most people at 2 because they believe he is the 2nd best player in the draft. They don't mock potential role players at 2. There is a reason most people are so high on this guy.
Analytics say that the next dynasty won't be built around freakishly athletic bigs and the only way that'll happen is if you get the big men version of KD and Curry together on the same team. Almost all of the successful teams are running the same type of program because that's what the analytics say you need to do to win games. Teams are jacking up 3s at a rate we've never seen before and it's working for them. You aren't going to win by trading 2s for 3s unless you are a unicorn big man who can score extremely efficiently while playing elite defense on the other end.
AD and Cousins had a hell of a time trying to do exactly what you are suggesting. We don't have anyone who is even 1/3 as good as they are and we're somehow planning on starting a revolution with the same idea they had?
I wish Bagley had actually been measured at the combine. At the time I really just wanted to know what his wingspan is, but after watching him talking to Vlade & Peja after his workout in Sacramento, I'm wondering if he's really 6'8" or 6'9".
Now that I've recalibrated my expectations of Bagley (I think he'll be more of a smallball PF/wing than a modern rim protecting big) it really doesn't matter either way but I'd like to know anyway.
Now that I've recalibrated my expectations of Bagley (I think he'll be more of a smallball PF/wing than a modern rim protecting big) it really doesn't matter either way but I'd like to know anyway.
History also tells us that just about every single franchise big man not cut short by injury had gone to at least one conference final before they retire.
Dirk, Webber, Boozer, Duncan, Shaq, David Robinson, Mumtombo, Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, Hakeem, Ewing, Pau, Love, Bosh, Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire, KG; I'm sure I forgot a few. The NBA is still a league that size matters.
History also tells us that a team's chances of drafting an elite big man goes down considerably after the first three pick, much lower than drafting an elite guard or wing. The Kings may not have another chance to draft this high again and on a big man so talented. They will still have plenty of chances to draft a good wing player from 2020 and on provided they actually know how to scout (debatable).
Dirk, Webber, Boozer, Duncan, Shaq, David Robinson, Mumtombo, Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, Hakeem, Ewing, Pau, Love, Bosh, Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire, KG; I'm sure I forgot a few. The NBA is still a league that size matters.
History also tells us that a team's chances of drafting an elite big man goes down considerably after the first three pick, much lower than drafting an elite guard or wing. The Kings may not have another chance to draft this high again and on a big man so talented. They will still have plenty of chances to draft a good wing player from 2020 and on provided they actually know how to scout (debatable).
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