I'm tired of reading this blurb about Doncic being the "most accomplished teenage basketball player of the last 20 years." I don't care if he's the most accomplished teenage player in europe in 50 years, 100 years. Makes no difference whatsoever. What counts is what kind of basketball player he is going to be over the next decade or so in the NBA. If you've lived on this planet for any length of time you've seen young guys that topped out much earlier than you would think. Heck, I remember a guy in my junior high who was Mr. Universe in athletics and then he was so-so relatively speaking when he got into high school. Then we know stories about late bloomers who turned out great - the Greek Freek for one. Jordan for another. And then there is the guy who is great in high school and remains great in the NBA - LBJ. You can come up with examples for every category. The analysis for the Kings is all about one thing - how much better or worse is he going to be in the NBA three or four years from now?
I could give you my answer, but my answer is nothing but a guess. All any team can do is make their best guess based on as much information that they can find. Which of course is more than I'll have. Or you'll have. If a player works hard, he can improve his skill level. So if Doncic is a hard worker, he'll get better. The one thing a player can't significantly improve is his athleticism. If you don't have great lateral quickness, you can improve is a little, but in most cases, not enough to make a big difference.
So my guess would be, that if you have a player like Bagley for instance, who is a freak athlete, but is a little weak in the skills dept, but he still puts up big numbers despite that, then you probably have a player, who with hard work, can be significantly better down the road. Translated that means, if he's good now, without those skills, he'll likely be a monster with them. = Very high ceiling....
On the other hand, when you have a player, like Doncic for example, who is maybe, a little better than average athlete, but highly skilled, who put up above average numbers in Europe, is likely to get a little better with hard work, but the jump will not be as significant as the jump Bagley made. Lets be honest, freak athlete's that are highly skilled are rare, and the chances of any of these top players becoming that are slim. Because if they become that, then you have the next Michael Jordan, or Lebron James. Those are once in a lifetime players.
But the chances of a Bagley becoming a Paul George, Dwayne Wade or a Kevin Garnett (referring to talent level only) isn't that far fetched. But I think the chances of Doncic reaching that level is unlikely. Doesn't mean he can't make an impact or be an all star, but I can't see him ever approaching superstar status. Of course I could be dead wrong! But for the most part, I think history is on my side. If you lack that elite athleticism, it's more difficult to reach that status, but not impossible. However, I'll take an average athlete that's highly skilled over an unskilled elite athlete all day long. Assuming I'm talking about a finished product.