Marvin Bagley III
- Thread starter jcassio
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Bagley's wingspan and lack of rim protection scares me. He's not a good shooter, not a good defender, not a good rim protector. You'll get rebounds and hustle points. If he turns out to be Amare then great but seems just as likely to be Faried. I wish I believed in Bagley as much as Pollard does cause I'd be a lot more excited about #2 if I did.
Can I ask a potentially dumb question?
Why are we assuming Bagley is 6'11" with a 7'0" wingspan? Can anyone post a link that references an official measurement that is recent? Not asking for articles that just say his wingspan is 7'0". I'm asking for links that actually have a source that they refer to.
I see an "official" measurement from the 2014 USA Junior National Team Mini Camp. These are his measurements as a 15 year old:
Height w/o shoes: 6'9.5"
Height w/ shoes: 6'10.5"
Wingspan: 7'0"
Standing Reach: 8'9"
Weight: 208 lbs
There's also this photo of Bagley & Porter standing side by side to one another (I cropped it so they are closer together and added perpendicular lines to their bodies at Bagley's chin and Porter's hair line).
Obviously, this is nothing official but at the same time we don't have a lot to go off. Bagley looks around at least an inch taller than Porter in that photo and Porter tested 6'9.5" w/o shoes which is what Bagley measured in as when he was 15 years old. Is it possible Bagley is close to a legit 7 feet in shoes? I think it's a possibility.
I'd also like to point out the neck. Porter looks to have a much longer neck than Bagley which would bode well for Bagley when comparing standing reachs. Porter measured in with a 9'0.5" standing reach and a 7'0.25" winspan. If we just assume for a second that the rumors of Bagley having a 7'0" wingspan are true, it's likely that his standing reach is at least higher than Porter's (unless of course Bagley's chest width is much wider than Porter's which is a possibility).
However, you could have a guy who could be standing 7'0" in shoes approaching a 9'2" standing reach with the hope that his 7'0" wingspan at 15 years old has also seen some growth.
Can anyone else tell me why we're blindly trusting a 7'0" wingspan? I wouldn't be surprised if it's grown since he was 15 years old.
I've also seen footage of his head being at least as high as the rim when dunking which means he probably has at minimum a 38 inch vertical. I wouldn't be surprised if this was his actual physical profile:
Height w/o shoes: 6'10.5"
Height w/ shoes: 6'11.5"
Wingspan: 7'2"
Standing Reach: 9'2"
Vertical: 40 inches
Weight: 235 lbs
That's not as good as Ayton's but Bagley's motor/fire are undeniably better & his speed, quickness, & fluidity looks better (which makes it an easy decision between the two for me).
EDIT: I really, really hate how players are not forced to at least get measured. Team's are investing millions and millions of dollars into these guys. There's no injury risk for them to stand there and have someone measure them. It's absurd that this hasn't been changed yet.
Why are we assuming Bagley is 6'11" with a 7'0" wingspan? Can anyone post a link that references an official measurement that is recent? Not asking for articles that just say his wingspan is 7'0". I'm asking for links that actually have a source that they refer to.
I see an "official" measurement from the 2014 USA Junior National Team Mini Camp. These are his measurements as a 15 year old:
Height w/o shoes: 6'9.5"
Height w/ shoes: 6'10.5"
Wingspan: 7'0"
Standing Reach: 8'9"
Weight: 208 lbs
There's also this photo of Bagley & Porter standing side by side to one another (I cropped it so they are closer together and added perpendicular lines to their bodies at Bagley's chin and Porter's hair line).
Obviously, this is nothing official but at the same time we don't have a lot to go off. Bagley looks around at least an inch taller than Porter in that photo and Porter tested 6'9.5" w/o shoes which is what Bagley measured in as when he was 15 years old. Is it possible Bagley is close to a legit 7 feet in shoes? I think it's a possibility.
I'd also like to point out the neck. Porter looks to have a much longer neck than Bagley which would bode well for Bagley when comparing standing reachs. Porter measured in with a 9'0.5" standing reach and a 7'0.25" winspan. If we just assume for a second that the rumors of Bagley having a 7'0" wingspan are true, it's likely that his standing reach is at least higher than Porter's (unless of course Bagley's chest width is much wider than Porter's which is a possibility).
However, you could have a guy who could be standing 7'0" in shoes approaching a 9'2" standing reach with the hope that his 7'0" wingspan at 15 years old has also seen some growth.
Can anyone else tell me why we're blindly trusting a 7'0" wingspan? I wouldn't be surprised if it's grown since he was 15 years old.
I've also seen footage of his head being at least as high as the rim when dunking which means he probably has at minimum a 38 inch vertical. I wouldn't be surprised if this was his actual physical profile:
Height w/o shoes: 6'10.5"
Height w/ shoes: 6'11.5"
Wingspan: 7'2"
Standing Reach: 9'2"
Vertical: 40 inches
Weight: 235 lbs
That's not as good as Ayton's but Bagley's motor/fire are undeniably better & his speed, quickness, & fluidity looks better (which makes it an easy decision between the two for me).
EDIT: I really, really hate how players are not forced to at least get measured. Team's are investing millions and millions of dollars into these guys. There's no injury risk for them to stand there and have someone measure them. It's absurd that this hasn't been changed yet.
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My working assumption is that IF Bagley's wingspan and reach were higher than what has been widely reported he would have measured out at the Combine. Mo Bamba got measured because he knew his wingspan was 7'10" instead of 7'9" so it only helped his stock. So I have to believe Bagley knew that getting measured would only hurt his.
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What in the world are you talking about...Lol miss me with this tired devils advocate act theres a sizeable difference between what you think and what I know on this subject.
I was just stating that this kid was about 6'10 with an NBA vert in 8th grade ---- thats highly unusual, i said it to reinforce my previous post where i called him any early bloomer. He's got a younger brother marcus who shot up to 6'6 at a very young age too. Theres an even younger brother Martay, who 's not even 10 and has scholarship offers already.
He is the grandson of Jumpin Joe Caldwell, who used to be one of the highest leapers in the ABA. Of course his verts improved since then, did your legs stop getting stronger halfway thru your teenage years? It's peculiar that a kid that size and age could move that way, extremely scarce athletic profile.
I was just stating that this kid was about 6'10 with an NBA vert in 8th grade ---- thats highly unusual, i said it to reinforce my previous post where i called him any early bloomer. He's got a younger brother marcus who shot up to 6'6 at a very young age too. Theres an even younger brother Martay, who 's not even 10 and has scholarship offers already.
He is the grandson of Jumpin Joe Caldwell, who used to be one of the highest leapers in the ABA. Of course his verts improved since then, did your legs stop getting stronger halfway thru your teenage years? It's peculiar that a kid that size and age could move that way, extremely scarce athletic profile.
So are you saying he's plateaued from a physical development aspect? I agree he was an early bloomer as he was on my little brother's AAU team and he definitely did grow 6 inches in 1 year in the 7th or 8th grade but that doesn't mean he reached his physical peak then or even now. What are your thoughts?
I like Marvin he's got plenty of room for improvent. To me Blake Griffin has improved drastically in his nba stint and i could see marvin following a similar trajectory. Players like Jaren Jackson Jr are gonna bother him, luckily for Marvin their few and far between. Anthony davis will destroy Marvin he's not equipped for that kind of matchup ahd wont be years from now either.
Your brother played for we can all go? With Darius Garland?
I dunno how this got misconstrued but i was talking about his height and wingspan likely having plateaued, not his "physical development"
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So it was a poor choice of words in your original post. Saying his vertical has been in the mid 30s SINCE the 8th grade tells us that you’re saying that it hasn’t changed since the 8th grade. Otherwise, you would have said his vertical in 8th grade WAS in the mid 30s which would allude to his impressive trajectory at such a young age.
Obviously that’s not what you meant after reading your second reply.
Obviously that’s not what you meant after reading your second reply.
I wouldn't go off the Team USA camp measurement, those are notoriously terrible. I've seen guys go to the combine and get measured an inch and a half shorter than what the Team USA stats say and those are generally taken a year or more earlier while most of these guys are still growing. But I also think it doesn't matter all that much what Bagley's wingspan is. If it turns out to be 6'11" do you not draft him? What if it's 7'3" is he now the #1 pick? I know this is what we all do, you get bored and there's nothing else to speculate on before the draft so you get out a fine-toothed comb and start over-analyzing every tiny detail. It's really not that important though.
Let's try to take a step back -- whatever his wingspan is, with his height and bounce he could be a dominant shotblocker if he had the instincts for it. He didn't show that at Duke but it was also only one season. More worrisome though was how he constantly found himself a step late on defensive rotations. The question is why he was a poor defender and is it reasonable to expect improvement? I do think he's going to get a lot stronger and retain most of his bounce as he fills out. He's already very strong on the boards. Most players improve their defensive instincts with repetition and it's rare to see a lot of structured defense in high school. So there's some hope for him becoming at least average on defense. That has a lot more to do with what's going on between his ears though than how long his arms are. He's fine on physical tools.
Let's try to take a step back -- whatever his wingspan is, with his height and bounce he could be a dominant shotblocker if he had the instincts for it. He didn't show that at Duke but it was also only one season. More worrisome though was how he constantly found himself a step late on defensive rotations. The question is why he was a poor defender and is it reasonable to expect improvement? I do think he's going to get a lot stronger and retain most of his bounce as he fills out. He's already very strong on the boards. Most players improve their defensive instincts with repetition and it's rare to see a lot of structured defense in high school. So there's some hope for him becoming at least average on defense. That has a lot more to do with what's going on between his ears though than how long his arms are. He's fine on physical tools.
I actually think it's a pretty important measurement... Probably more important than height even. It's no coincidence that most of the elite non guards in the league have outlier wingspans. Kd, Giannis, kawhi, ad, DeMarcus, Draymond, Kat. That's a who's who of 3-4-5's. Now obviously this is just a measurement, in a box it's worthless. But If you have a box for length, a box for skills, and a box for athleticism the more boxes you can check the better. Vice versa, the less boxes checked the worse. That's how I look at it.
The thing about wingspan is that I always see it applied retroactively to explain things but rarely is it applied successfully as a predictor of success. Elton Brand emerges as an All-Star in his early 20s and we go "of course he does, he's got that elite wingspan which allows him to play bigger than his listed height" but when Ike Diogu comes out of Arizona State in the same mold at 6'8" with a 7'3" wingspan and looking like a dominant scoring force we assume he'll follow in Brand's footsteps right? Oops. Or when Blake Griffin is clearly the best player in College basketball but he's only 6'8" barefoot and has a wingspan under 7 feet the doubts creep in.... and are completely unwarranted. After the fact: "clearly his freakish athleticism allows him to play bigger than his listed height and wingspan."
See where I'm going with this? I think we make a big deal out of it every year and with the possible exception of human pterodactyls like Gobert and Bamba, I'm not sure that it's anything more than a draft curiosity which is quickly forgotten about in the context of actual basketball. Maybe you can do a study on this but I'm personally done caring about wingspan. The last 10 years of draft failures have knocked some sense into me. I want to see that a guy can play. If he can than the wingpsan won't matter. If he can't, all the reach in the world isn't going to elevate him much beyond mediocre.
See where I'm going with this? I think we make a big deal out of it every year and with the possible exception of human pterodactyls like Gobert and Bamba, I'm not sure that it's anything more than a draft curiosity which is quickly forgotten about in the context of actual basketball. Maybe you can do a study on this but I'm personally done caring about wingspan. The last 10 years of draft failures have knocked some sense into me. I want to see that a guy can play. If he can than the wingpsan won't matter. If he can't, all the reach in the world isn't going to elevate him much beyond mediocre.
The most common description that seems to go with Bagley is that he is the "safest pick". Well my recent memory about who got same description going into the draft were T-Rob, Derrick Williams, and Evan Turner. So I guess I'll pass.
The more I watch Bamba, the more I see a kid that can be plugged to any of the conference finals teams this season and make an impact.
A Bamba + WCS front court is sprinting front court. Pair that with Fox and we can get 10 mins of solid sprinting offense. It could get bullied inside. But only Cousins can do that in this age of the NBA now. So pass with Bagley and I'm down with Ayton, Bamba, and Luka.
The more I watch Bamba, the more I see a kid that can be plugged to any of the conference finals teams this season and make an impact.
A Bamba + WCS front court is sprinting front court. Pair that with Fox and we can get 10 mins of solid sprinting offense. It could get bullied inside. But only Cousins can do that in this age of the NBA now. So pass with Bagley and I'm down with Ayton, Bamba, and Luka.
I will second this post. Look at the playoff teams tgat have reached the 2nd round and ask where does a guy like Bagley fit on the floor? He has a lot of shades of tristan thompson as far as situational utility and lineup flexibility imo. Bamba ayton luka porter and jackson all could play big mins for any of the successful teams.
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LOLLOLLOLLOL!
(I'll tell you, if laughing keeps the doctor away, my life expectancy has jumped considerably. Every time I look at that bolded statement I'm laughing. I might have to use it a screen saver or put your quote for my avatar so that if need be, it picks up my spirits. Thank you, baja! LOL!)
Just watch WCS lollygag down the court on defense, or even on offense! My God! It was the exception when he used his speed on the basketball floor last year, not the rule. Watch him do the "one-and-a-two" count before he starts getting back on defense, while the other team fast breaks up the court. Watch him do the faux hesitation-watch-watch-I-guess-I-better-run-now-move to monitor how fast he needs to get down the floor instead of immediately putting his head down and race back on D. Oops, the other team got a layup; "my bad." This is the kind of stuff you expect from 40+ year old Carter or big, slow and aged Randolph, not a 24-year old racehorse whose primary asset in the NBA is his speed. What the heck good is his speed if he doesn't USE it in getting down the floor?! I've actually kept some DVR tape of some of the Kings' games from last year and looked at some of them just recently and it did more than confirm my already held belief in the lollygagging WCS. Frankly, I don't see how Joerger didn't go totally ballistic on this guy during several Kings' games last year because of his lazy play. Divac has got to see it, even if you can't. Give me more Sampsons on this team and erase WCS from it as soon as possible! Still hoping that we draft a big on Draft Day and WCS gets traded on the same day! A twofer!
(I'll tell you, if laughing keeps the doctor away, my life expectancy has jumped considerably. Every time I look at that bolded statement I'm laughing. I might have to use it a screen saver or put your quote for my avatar so that if need be, it picks up my spirits. Thank you, baja! LOL!)Just watch WCS lollygag down the court on defense, or even on offense! My God! It was the exception when he used his speed on the basketball floor last year, not the rule. Watch him do the "one-and-a-two" count before he starts getting back on defense, while the other team fast breaks up the court. Watch him do the faux hesitation-watch-watch-I-guess-I-better-run-now-move to monitor how fast he needs to get down the floor instead of immediately putting his head down and race back on D. Oops, the other team got a layup; "my bad." This is the kind of stuff you expect from 40+ year old Carter or big, slow and aged Randolph, not a 24-year old racehorse whose primary asset in the NBA is his speed. What the heck good is his speed if he doesn't USE it in getting down the floor?! I've actually kept some DVR tape of some of the Kings' games from last year and looked at some of them just recently and it did more than confirm my already held belief in the lollygagging WCS. Frankly, I don't see how Joerger didn't go totally ballistic on this guy during several Kings' games last year because of his lazy play. Divac has got to see it, even if you can't. Give me more Sampsons on this team and erase WCS from it as soon as possible! Still hoping that we draft a big on Draft Day and WCS gets traded on the same day! A twofer!
LOLLOLLOLLOL! (I'll tell you, if laughing keeps the doctor away, my life expectancy has jumped considerably. Every time I look at that bolded statement I'm laughing. I might have to use it a screen saver or put your quote for my avatar so that if need be, it picks up my spirits. Thank you, baja! LOL!)
Just watch WCS lollygag down the court on defense, or even on offense! My God! It was the exception when he used his speed on the basketball floor last year, not the rule. Watch him do the "one-and-a-two" count before he starts getting back on defense, while the other team fast breaks up the court. Watch him do the faux hesitation-watch-watch-I-guess-I-better-run-now-move to monitor how fast he needs to get down the floor instead of immediately putting his head down and race back on D. Oops, the other team got a layup; "my bad." This is the kind of stuff you expect from 40+ year old Carter or big, slow and aged Randolph, not a 24-year old racehorse whose primary asset in the NBA is his speed. What the heck good is his speed if he doesn't USE it in getting down the floor?! I've actually kept some DVR tape of some of the Kings' games from last year and looked at some of them just recently and it did more than confirm my already held belief in the lollygagging WCS. Frankly, I don't see how Joerger didn't go totally ballistic on this guy during several Kings' games last year because of his lazy play. Divac has got to see it, even if you can't. Give me more Sampsons on this team and erase WCS from it as soon as possible! Still hoping that we draft a big on Draft Day and WCS gets traded on the same day! A twofer!
(I'll tell you, if laughing keeps the doctor away, my life expectancy has jumped considerably. Every time I look at that bolded statement I'm laughing. I might have to use it a screen saver or put your quote for my avatar so that if need be, it picks up my spirits. Thank you, baja! LOL!)Just watch WCS lollygag down the court on defense, or even on offense! My God! It was the exception when he used his speed on the basketball floor last year, not the rule. Watch him do the "one-and-a-two" count before he starts getting back on defense, while the other team fast breaks up the court. Watch him do the faux hesitation-watch-watch-I-guess-I-better-run-now-move to monitor how fast he needs to get down the floor instead of immediately putting his head down and race back on D. Oops, the other team got a layup; "my bad." This is the kind of stuff you expect from 40+ year old Carter or big, slow and aged Randolph, not a 24-year old racehorse whose primary asset in the NBA is his speed. What the heck good is his speed if he doesn't USE it in getting down the floor?! I've actually kept some DVR tape of some of the Kings' games from last year and looked at some of them just recently and it did more than confirm my already held belief in the lollygagging WCS. Frankly, I don't see how Joerger didn't go totally ballistic on this guy during several Kings' games last year because of his lazy play. Divac has got to see it, even if you can't. Give me more Sampsons on this team and erase WCS from it as soon as possible! Still hoping that we draft a big on Draft Day and WCS gets traded on the same day! A twofer!
And the 4th year is the "breakout year". The only breakout Willie is going to have is a skin condition from excess tattoo ink.
I posted the article to make the point that wingspan is not the be-all, end-all of argument about big men. Randle is a pretty good player in his own right - per 36 his numbers last season is around 21 pts 10 rebs and 4 assists with 55% FG. If the Kings end up with a player who can post this kind of stats many people would consider that a win. .... And Bagley will likely end up even better than Randle, so take Randle's numbers from last season and add a few more points and rebounds - and that would be a scary good player.
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