Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

[Kingster]

The guy who's nearly unanimously 1 or 2 may not even project to the NBA now? Wonder what all the scouting sites have been looking at the last few years.

Unanimous 1 or 2 means absolutely nothing. Have you checked the history of "consensus" picks leading up to drafts? If not, see the link below. Beasley, Rubio, Turner, Derrick Williams, Thomas Robinson, Oladipo, and Wiggins is what you get from the consensus for the #2 pick leading up to the drafts in the 2008-2014 time period. If you think about it, that is just incredible. If in some strange universe in which a team got the #2 pick every year from 2008 through 2014 and they went with the consensus every single year for that pick leading up to those drafts, the team that they have could include: Beasley, Rubio, Turner, D. Williams, Robinson, Oladipo and Wiggins. How many wins do you think that team gets you?

If that doesn't make you nervous about Doncic being a consensus #2 for this upcoming draft, nothing will!

https://community.kingsfans.com/threads/here-is-what-consensus-gets-you.69469/

 

[ockingsfan]

Unanimous 1 or 2 means absolutely nothing. Have you checked the history of "consensus" picks leading up to drafts? If not, see the link below. Beasley, Rubio, Turner, Derrick Williams, Thomas Robinson, Oladipo, and Wiggins is what you get from the consensus for the #2 pick leading up to the drafts in the 2008-2014 time period. If you think about it, that is just incredible. If in some strange universe in which a team got the #2 pick every year from 2008 through 2014 and they went with the consensus every single year for that pick leading up to those drafts, the team that they have could include: Beasley, Rubio, Turner, D. Williams, Robinson, Oladipo and Wiggins. How many wins do you think that team gets you?

If that doesn't make you nervous about Doncic being a consensus #2 for this upcoming draft, nothing will!

https://community.kingsfans.com/threads/here-is-what-consensus-gets-you.69469/

I think you need to include the 2007 consensus #2 pick when doing your analysis too and that was Kevin Durant.

 

[roasthawg]

Getting closer to the draft and I'm still on Doncic at #2 but remain unconvinced that he has a shot at being great. I think there's a really good shot he becomes a hayward/ginobli type of player sooner than later. Just don't see him elevating above that.

I don't see a lot of superstar potential in the other guys available either. All of them seem to have all star upside with lower floors than Doncic. Mpj is the one wildcard for me right now as he might have superstar upside. That's for Vlade and co to figure out though as the rest of us aren't privy to all the info.

Safe money is still on Doncic.

 

[sactowndog]

Getting closer to the draft and I'm still on Doncic at #2 but remain unconvinced that he has a shot at being great. I think there's a really good shot he becomes a hayward/ginobli type of player sooner than later. Just don't see him elevating above that.

I don't see a lot of superstar potential in the other guys available either. All of them seem to have all star upside with lower floors than Doncic. Mpj is the one wildcard for me right now as he might have superstar upside. That's for Vlade and co to figure out though as the rest of us aren't privy to all the info.

Safe money is still on Doncic.

If I could figure out who he would defend I would agree... I was all in on Doncic until I watched the Euroleague Semi’s and Final and started to rethink my position.

He doesn’t appear quick enough to defend guards nor long enough to defend forwards. For that reason, I’m just not sold. I do find it interesting the pro Doncic people keep posting links questioning Bagley’s length (+1) when Doncic might have a similar or greater problem.

 

[Kingster]

Luka will never be a LeBron type of athlete, but to say that he can never improve or improve just marginally is completely false. Why have physical therapists like me then or athletic trainers?

If Luka was guided by an NBA athletic trainer on a daily basis for all the years he spends in the NBA, I would bet my bottom dollar that he would look and play significantly better. I don't really care how athletic he is, he can play and we all know it. Some of us are just afraid to admit it in case he isn't "worthy" of a number 2 pick.

All of these authors that are saying that they don't know how he is going to project to the NBA are scam artists. How do we know how anyone will project in the NBA? We don't. The problem is there simply isn't enough information available on European players as there are NCAA players, for regular folks like us anyway. The difference in time between the US and Europe and the fact that most games are not televised here lead most people to feel uncomfortable about projecting such a player. All we have to go on are a few televised games and highlight reels.

I look at his skill set as best as I can. I see a guy who can play a pick and roll to perfection, who stands 6-8 230 and is the MVP of the 2nd best league in the world at 19 years old. Yes, he's not Vince Carter athletic, but he plays at his own pace. He's got some Chris Paul to him in that sense, who plays almost methodically but yet has been a great PG since day 1 (I still don't like him though). He's got a killer step back and knows how to lead a team and how to win. He's not without fault, but if you watch closely, his skills are undeniable. Skills always translate, always. Size doesn't. Athletic ability disappears as you age, particularly if injured often. Skills are the last thing to go (see Manu Ginobili) and the kids has that in spades.

He's my guy this draft. I like a few others, but this kid can do it all.

Unless he's significantly overweight, any significant athletic improvement other than strength and stamina ain't happening. I don't see anything slightly resembling the Pillsbury Doughboy with him, so I remain very skeptical about the belief that Doncic will become an above average NBA athlete, no matter what athletic trainer or training he gets.

I would anticipate skill improvement to occur, however, especially because he does have a high BBIQ. To what extent his skill improvement can compensate for his athletic mediocrity (by NBA standards) is the question for me.

 

[roasthawg]

If I could figure out who he would defend I would agree... I was all in on Doncic until I watched the Euroleague Semi’s and Final and started to rethink my position.

He doesn’t appear quick enough to defend guards nor long enough to defend forwards. For that reason, I’m just not sold. I do find it interesting the pro Doncic people keep posting links questioning Bagley’s length (+1) when Doncic might have a similar or greater problem.

Same length as Hayward though. I think that's a good comp for him.

 

[Kingster]

I think you need to include the 2007 consensus #2 pick when doing your analysis too and that was Kevin Durant.

Yeah, that imaginary team that got all those consecutive #2 picks just would have to start their "lucky roll" one year earlier! Maybe they would then get to the playoffs!

 

[sactowndog]

Same length as Hayward though. I think that's a good comp for him.

Your correct. I think it’s an excellant comp for him. I think if he improves his shooting, which is a reasonable assumption and his lateral quickness to whatever degree he can Hayward is his best comp.

 

[allrightythen]

I think he has better vision than Hayward. He makes passes that I've never seen Hayward make. If his ceiling is a better passing version of Hayward then he's an elite NBA player.

 

[sactowndog]

Unless he's significantly overweight, any significant athletic improvement other than strength and stamina ain't happening. I don't see anything slightly resembling the Pillsbury Doughboy with him, so I remain very skeptical about the belief that Doncic will become an above average NBA athlete, no matter what athletic trainer or training he gets.

I would anticipate skill improvement to occur, however, especially because he does have a high BBIQ. To what extent his skill improvement can compensate for his athletic mediocrity (by NBA standards) is the question for me.

My concern is he has pretty high skill already and is using that skill to get his shot off in Europe! As an example he doesn’t drive and stop and pop using his quickness. He routinely used his step back to create space in the two games I watched.

 

[sactowndog]

I think he has better vision than Hayward. He makes passes that I've never seen Hayward make. If his ceiling is a better passing version of Hayward then he's an elite NBA player.

Hayward is a pretty good secondary ball handler already. He also has a ways to go to be as good a shooter as Hayward. Not that he can’t get there.

 

[ockingsfan]

I think he has better vision than Hayward. He makes passes that I've never seen Hayward make. If his ceiling is a better passing version of Hayward then he's an elite NBA player.

He is more of a cross between Gordon Hayward and Lonzo Ball IMHO.

He will be a sure fire high level starter for many, many years. He will be an All star level player. Him being a franchise level player is hard to predict though.

 

[allrightythen]

He is more of a cross between Gordon Hayward and Lonzo Ball IMHO.

He will be a sure fire high level starter for many, many years. He will be an All star level player. Him being a franchise level player is hard to predict though.

It's not only hard to predict, it's hard to recognize sometimes. I don't know how well he fits in with our current team, but he certainly has a ton of talent.

 

[Blob]

Luka has spent a few weeks at P3 the past two summers. Luka combines outstanding anthropometric measurements, including an 8'9.5" standing reach (88th percentile for NBA guards) and 228.8 lbs of mass with very competitive and improving movement qualities. In the lateral plane, Luka's ability to abduct the hip (1 dev above the mean) allows him to generate Force more efficiently than most NBA players that we've assessed (71st percentile in lateral acceleration). He's become particularly adept in a change-of-direction environment, where his Slide Agility times outpace most NBA Guards tested at P3 and they've improved by roughly 0.25s in the past year. Vertically, Luka ranks better than 73% of NBA guards in height touched during the approach and his improved his countermovement jump by 2 inches in the past year. He's good now, he's still getting better, and he's well within his physical development window!


Bear in mind this was in summer 2016 when he was 17..

Since then he didin´t have time because of euroleague + eurobasket to attend anything....

From P3 in Santa Barbara(2016)

Who are you and how do you have access to this data? Thanks.

 

[allrightythen]

Hayward is a pretty good secondary ball handler already. He also has a ways to go to be as good a shooter as Hayward. Not that he can’t get there.

I agree, but Hayward didn't start that way. Luka starts out as a better ball-handler and passer, but not quite the athlete or shooter that Gordon was. I'd be pretty confident in Luka's ability as a shooter if he can/will play within a system. When he's free wheelin he takes bad shots though and IMO he does that too much.

 

[Sactown ExPat]

Unless he's significantly overweight, any significant athletic improvement other than strength and stamina ain't happening. I don't see anything slightly resembling the Pillsbury Doughboy with him, so I remain very skeptical about the belief that Doncic will become an above average NBA athlete, no matter what athletic trainer or training he gets.

I would anticipate skill improvement to occur, however, especially because he does have a high BBIQ. To what extent his skill improvement can compensate for his athletic mediocrity (by NBA standards) is the question for me.

This is false. He’s 19. With training, he could become a lot quicker, stronger, and explosive. Athleticism is a measure of hard work, just like everything else.

 

[roasthawg]

This is false. He’s 19. With training, he could become a lot quicker, stronger, and explosive. Athleticism is a measure of hard work, just like everything else.

Not really, athleticism is pretty much God given. That's why many of the dunk contest athletes are straight out of college. Even if they're a little older they were already recognized as explosive athletes in HS and college. You either are or you aren't... Luka is not.

 

[upinsmoke]

Not really, athleticism is pretty much God given. That's why many of the dunk contest athletes are straight out of college. Even if they're a little older they were already recognized as explosive athletes in HS and college. You either are or you aren't... Luka is not.

Ben Mclemore and Thomas Robinson are amazing athletes but that doesn't mean jack.

 

[sactowndog]

Not really, athleticism is pretty much God given. That's why many of the dunk contest athletes are straight out of college. Even if they're a little older they were already recognized as explosive athletes in HS and college. You either are or you aren't... Luka is not.

I’m not so sure it’s black or white. If training never mattered then track athletes wouldn’t bother training. But if it were only hard work then I’d be an national level sprinter and that ain’t happening.

So I’m sure you can improve but you can’t create what God didn’t put in.

 

[roasthawg]

Ben Mclemore and Thomas Robinson are amazing athletes but that doesn't mean jack.

Yeah no one has made the argument that athleticism equals NBA stardom. It definely comes into play when trying to project Luka in the NBA though.

 

[sactowndog]

Ben Mclemore and Thomas Robinson are amazing athletes but that doesn't mean jack.

No one is saying athleticism alone is enough. But these are the best athletes in the world, you have to have athleticism and skill.

 

[Telemachus]

6’11 i belive

I have heard that as well. But nothing official.

 

[gunks]

Yeah, I don't get the whole "he can't improve athletically" stance. Kid is borderline tubby!

If Doncic starts working out and eating healthier, and cuts back on the junk food, he could absolutely improve athletically.

Nobody is expecting him to turn into an elite athlete, but he should get quicker if he tones up.

 

[sactowndog]

I have heard that as well. But nothing official.

Boy when you look at picks his upper arms look relatively short. Hard to believe he is a plus 3 wingspan but who knows.

 

[Telemachus]

Yeah, I don't get the whole "he can't improve athletically" stance. Kid is borderline tubby!

If Doncic starts working out and eating healthier, and cuts back on the junk food, he could absolutely improve athletically.

Nobody is expecting him to turn into an elite athlete, but he should get quicker if he tones up.

I think many are also ignoring that fact that he has been playing for almost 2 years straight. He very likely has dead legs at the moment. He looked much quicker at this time last year IMO.

 

[jcwkings]

Not really, athleticism is pretty much God given. That's why many of the dunk contest athletes are straight out of college. Even if they're a little older they were already recognized as explosive athletes in HS and college. You either are or you aren't... Luka is not.

The problem is your only assessment of athleticism is vertical jump. There are many other ways to be a good athlete on the basketball court: agility, lateral movement, balance, change of speed, speed with the ball, reaction speed, hip flexibility. Ben McLemore is a great athlete by your standards, but he is a terrible NBA player.

 

[Telemachus]

Boy when you look at picks his upper arms look relatively short. Hard to believe he is a plus 3 wingspan but who knows.

Doncic looks like he has a wide frame to me. Remember that wingspan isn't just arm length, but also body width. Cousins has a 7'5 wingspan without looking like he has freakishly long arms.

 

[roasthawg]

The problem is your only assessment of athleticism is vertical jump. There are many other ways to be a good athlete on the basketball court: agility, lateral movement, balance, change of speed, speed with the ball, reaction speed, hip flexibility. Ben McLemore is a great athlete by your standards, but he is a terrible NBA player.

Yeah my assessment is basically quick twitch explosiveness. And yes McLemore is a plus NBA athlete. Doncic will be a below average athlete on the wing. No reason to over complicate this portion of the evaluation process as it's a pretty simple one.

 

[sactowndog]

Doncic looks like he has a wide frame to me. Remember that wingspan isn't just arm length, but also body width. Cousins has a 7'5 wingspan without looking like he has freakishly long arms.

Fair point.

 

[Sactown ExPat]

The problem is your only assessment of athleticism is vertical jump. There are many other ways to be a good athlete on the basketball court: agility, lateral movement, balance, change of speed, speed with the ball, reaction speed, hip flexibility. Ben McLemore is a great athlete by your standards, but he is a terrible NBA player.

Exactly, and vertical is the easiest to increase.