Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

[burner account]

Luka has spent a few weeks at P3 the past two summers. Luka combines outstanding anthropometric measurements, including an 8'9.5" standing reach (88th percentile for NBA guards) and 228.8 lbs of mass with very competitive and improving movement qualities. In the lateral plane, Luka's ability to abduct the hip (1 dev above the mean) allows him to generate Force more efficiently than most NBA players that we've assessed (71st percentile in lateral acceleration). He's become particularly adept in a change-of-direction environment, where his Slide Agility times outpace most NBA Guards tested at P3 and they've improved by roughly 0.25s in the past year. Vertically, Luka ranks better than 73% of NBA guards in height touched during the approach and his improved his countermovement jump by 2 inches in the past year. He's good now, he's still getting better, and he's well within his physical development window!


Bear in mind this was in summer 2016 when he was 17..

Since then he didin´t have time because of euroleague + eurobasket to attend anything....

From P3 in Santa Barbara(2016)

 

[burekijogurt]

Maybe but I just found something interesting. You can't find a measurement of Doncic's standing reach or wingspan anywhere on the internet. Why is that? Why can you for everyone one else and not for him? What is his camp hiding?

I was a big Doncic supporter but I am increasingly becoming concerned he isn't the right guy.

At the end of the day we are looking for a basketball player not a crane. yes certain physical attributes help all else being equal but dimensions, vertical jump, etc.. are not the end all be all... That said, I'm not sure he is our guy yet either although i believe he will be an excellent player in the NBA.

 

[sactowndog]

At the end of the day we are looking for a basketball player not a crane. yes certain physical attributes help all else being equal but dimensions, vertical jump, etc.. are not the end all be all... That said, I'm not sure he is our guy yet either although i believe he will be an excellent player in the NBA.

Length for wings is pretty important. It helps defensively and finishing.

Why would we treat Luca differently if we are talking about Bagley’s and Trae’s length.

 

[Joshoua]

Last year the lakers were guaranteed to take Lonzo then fake rumors came out that they wanted fox or to trade back. The year before Philadelphia was locked to pick Simmons then fake rumors came out that Ingram was the guy and they were gonna trade back. Nothing new here it will be Ayton/Doncic when it’s all set and done

 

[SLAB]

Last year the lakers were guaranteed to take Lonzo then fake rumors came out that they wanted fox or to trade back. The year before Philadelphia was locked to pick Simmons then fake rumors came out that Ingram was the guy and they were gonna trade back. Nothing new here it will be Ayton/Doncic when it’s all set and done

I really pray you're right. I still have my pitchfork and rocks ready to throw on draft night just in case...

 

[burekijogurt]

Length for wings is pretty important. It helps defensively and finishing.

Why would we treat Luca differently if we are talking about Bagley’s and Trae’s length.

yes, length is important i agree. bit so are skill, bbiq, strength, etc.. all of those things in combination make a basketball player. we should pick the best one, regardless of how any of those individual components stack up with other prospects..

 

[sactowndog]

Last year the lakers were guaranteed to take Lonzo then fake rumors came out that they wanted fox or to trade back. The year before Philadelphia was locked to pick Simmons then fake rumors came out that Ingram was the guy and they were gonna trade back. Nothing new here it will be Ayton/Doncic when it’s all set and done

I’m not certain Luca projects to the NBA.

He’s guarding 4’s in the Euroleague which leads you to believe he may not have the lateral foot speed to play 1 or 2 and possibly not the 3. So if you look at the 3 or 4, his possible lack of length becomes an issue.

 

[sactowndog]

yes, length is important i agree. bit so are skill, bbiq, strength, etc.. all of those things in combination make a basketball player. we should pick the best one, regardless of how any of those individual components stack up with other prospects..

Sure but the things he can do in the Euro league he may not be able to replicate in the NBA against much longer and quicker opponents.

I don’t know his length is poor but you have to assume if it were a positive his agent would make sure it was known. The fact you can’t find it anywhere is a red flag.

 

[Kingster]

Doncic will be a SG or SF in the NBA just like he has been for Real Madrid and the Slovenian team.

Carter-Williams has always been a PG. He doesn't guard SFs other than on switches because of his build (184 lbs coming into the NBA and doesn't look a ton bigger now) and because even though he's 6'6" he only has a 6'7" wingspan.

Doncic needs to adjust his shot selection and end of quarter heaves dropped his 3P% by 3-4 points but he is a good shooter with good mechanics where it can reasonably assumed that he'll improve whereas MCW is a poor shooter and always has been.

MCW could certainly guard any Kings' SF and he could guard Jackson, the Suns SF, and probably a lot of others. Unless a SF is physical and a good low post player, MCW can guard them because he's quick and overall a good defensive player. Wingspan is important, just not as important as quickness when it comes to wing defense, imo. And speaking of wingspan, do know what Doncic's wingspan is?

The following analyses pretty much echos my sentiments regarding Doncic:
Nbadraft.net: http://www.nbadraft.net/players/luka-doncic.

Athleticism: 7, Quickness: 7, BBIQ: 10, Overall Ceiling: 8. The athleticism/quickness issues are real for me. And in my experience nbadraft net is pretty good at evaluating those things.

And from Stepien: https://www.thestepien.com/luka-doncic/

"Doncic is a truly unique prospect as a 6’8” primary initiator who is a legitimate outside shooting threat. His amazing production at the highest level of non-NBA basketball sets him apart from past international prospects, as there’s really no way to know how his game will translate to the NBA and continue to progress. This both works for and against him; he could either come into the league as an All-Star-caliber player from day one who continues to improve, or he could follow in the paths of past young European stars like Nikola Mirotic and Ricky Rubio and fail to improve much once he gets to the NBA. That said, he’s an elite shot creator with generational basketball IQ and an incredible overall skill level for a player his size. He projects to add a ton of value right away in the NBA, and with athletic improvement and consistent three-point shooting could become one of the top players in the world."
https://www.thestepien.com/luka-doncic/

I don't have any issue with Stepien's analysis other than one thing - his comment on athletic improvement. It ain't going to happen. It never does. A wing player isn't going to improve athletically in any way that you can see on the basketball floor. Sure, he'll get stronger, but not straight ahead quickness, lateral quickness, speed, jumping. It's all going to be very marginal if it ever happens at all. I've never seen a wing come into the league in the draft as an average athlete and end up to be a good NBA athlete.

 

[SLAB]

I’m not certain Luca projects to the NBA.

He’s guarding 4’s in the Euroleague which leads you to believe he may not have the lateral foot speed to play 1 or 2 and possibly not the 3. So if you look at the 3 or 4, his possible lack of length becomes an issue.

The guy who's nearly unanimously 1 or 2 may not even project to the NBA now? Wonder what all the scouting sites have been looking at the last few years.

 

[Sac.Kings]

MCW could certainly guard any Kings' SF and he could guard Jackson, the Suns SF, and probably a lot of others. Unless a SF is physical and a good low post player, MCW can guard them because he's quick and overall a good defensive player. Wingspan is important, just not as important as quickness when it comes to wing defense, imo. And speaking of wingspan, do know what Doncic's wingspan is?

The following analyses pretty much echos my sentiments regarding Doncic:
Nbadraft.net: http://www.nbadraft.net/players/luka-doncic.

Athleticism: 7, Quickness: 7, BBIQ: 10, Overall Ceiling: 8. The athleticism/quickness issues are real for me. And in my experience nbadraft net is pretty good at evaluating those things.

And from Stepien: https://www.thestepien.com/luka-doncic/

"Doncic is a truly unique prospect as a 6’8” primary initiator who is a legitimate outside shooting threat. His amazing production at the highest level of non-NBA basketball sets him apart from past international prospects, as there’s really no way to know how his game will translate to the NBA and continue to progress. This both works for and against him; he could either come into the league as an All-Star-caliber player from day one who continues to improve, or he could follow in the paths of past young European stars like Nikola Mirotic and Ricky Rubio and fail to improve much once he gets to the NBA. That said, he’s an elite shot creator with generational basketball IQ and an incredible overall skill level for a player his size. He projects to add a ton of value right away in the NBA, and with athletic improvement and consistent three-point shooting could become one of the top players in the world."
https://www.thestepien.com/luka-doncic/

I don't have any issue with Stepien's analysis other than one thing - his comment on athletic improvement. It ain't going to happen. It never does. A wing player isn't going to improve athletically in any way that you can see on the basketball floor. Sure, he'll get stronger, but not straight ahead quickness, lateral quickness, speed, jumping. It's all going to be very marginal if it ever happens at all. I've never seen a wing come into the league in the draft as an average athlete and end up to be a good NBA athlete.

Luka will never be a LeBron type of athlete, but to say that he can never improve or improve just marginally is completely false. Why have physical therapists like me then or athletic trainers?

If Luka was guided by an NBA athletic trainer on a daily basis for all the years he spends in the NBA, I would bet my bottom dollar that he would look and play significantly better. I don't really care how athletic he is, he can play and we all know it. Some of us are just afraid to admit it in case he isn't "worthy" of a number 2 pick.

All of these authors that are saying that they don't know how he is going to project to the NBA are scam artists. How do we know how anyone will project in the NBA? We don't. The problem is there simply isn't enough information available on European players as there are NCAA players, for regular folks like us anyway. The difference in time between the US and Europe and the fact that most games are not televised here lead most people to feel uncomfortable about projecting such a player. All we have to go on are a few televised games and highlight reels.

I look at his skill set as best as I can. I see a guy who can play a pick and roll to perfection, who stands 6-8 230 and is the MVP of the 2nd best league in the world at 19 years old. Yes, he's not Vince Carter athletic, but he plays at his own pace. He's got some Chris Paul to him in that sense, who plays almost methodically but yet has been a great PG since day 1 (I still don't like him though). He's got a killer step back and knows how to lead a team and how to win. He's not without fault, but if you watch closely, his skills are undeniable. Skills always translate, always. Size doesn't. Athletic ability disappears as you age, particularly if injured often. Skills are the last thing to go (see Manu Ginobili) and the kids has that in spades.

He's my guy this draft. I like a few others, but this kid can do it all.

 

[KingsSelecao]

I Think Ayton is the only sure Bet

Doncic will be a very good player. But, will have issues athletically. Beating guys off screens and off dribble drives. Actually, he looks out of shape in the Euroleague.
Soft. No speed and no muscle. Sure, his read and react skills are outstanding. He sees the entire floor and a top rate passer. But, I don’t think he will ever take over a game offensively and be a primary scorer. This is what concerns me about Doncic. The team badly needs that Alpha Dog cold
Blooded scorer. I can tell you that player is not on the Kings currently.

Posted by

 

[funkykingston]

Luka will never be a LeBron type of athlete, but to say that he can never improve or improve just marginally is completely false. Why have physical therapists like me then or athletic trainers?

If Luka was guided by an NBA athletic trainer on a daily basis for all the years he spends in the NBA, I would bet my bottom dollar that he would look and play significantly better. I don't really care how athletic he is, he can play and we all know it. Some of us are just afraid to admit it in case he isn't "worthy" of a number 2 pick.

All of these authors that are saying that they don't know how he is going to project to the NBA are scam artists. How do we know how anyone will project in the NBA? We don't. The problem is there simply isn't enough information available on European players as there are NCAA players, for regular folks like us anyway. The difference in time between the US and Europe and the fact that most games are not televised here lead most people to feel uncomfortable about projecting such a player. All we have to go on are a few televised games and highlight reels.

I look at his skill set as best as I can. I see a guy who can play a pick and roll to perfection, who stands 6-8 230 and is the MVP of the 2nd best league in the world at 19 years old. Yes, he's not Vince Carter athletic, but he plays at his own pace. He's got some Chris Paul to him in that sense, who plays almost methodically but yet has been a great PG since day 1 (I still don't like him though). He's got a killer step back and knows how to lead a team and how to win. He's not without fault, but if you watch closely, his skills are undeniable. Skills always translate, always. Size doesn't. Athletic ability disappears as you age, particularly if injured often. Skills are the last thing to go (see Manu Ginobili) and the kids has that in spades.

He's my guy this draft. I like a few others, but this kid can do it all.

I loved that when Slovenia played Latvia and Porzingis switched on Doncic, Luka went right at him in the paint. He could have backed the ball out to get room to drive or use his stepback and instead he went right at him at the hoop.

 

[KingsSelecao]

I loved that when Slovenia played Latvia and Porzingis switched on Doncic, Luka went right at him in the paint. He could have backed the ball out to get room to drive or use his stepback and instead he went right at him at the hoop.

Porzingas is one thing. Anthony Davis is another. Porzingas is a good player. But, he’s not Embiid, Davis, Cousins. Gobert, KAT, Adams, in the heft dept.
Luka will get mauled.

 

[TaxMan]

Porzingas is one thing. Anthony Davis is another. Porzingas is a good player. But, he’s not Embiid, Davis, Cousins. Gobert, KAT, Adams, in the heft dept.
Luka will get mauled.

I'm so confused. Are we now worried Luka won't be able to guard centers?

 

[gunks]

....The team badly needs that Alpha Dog cold
Blooded scorer. I can tell you that player is not on the Kings currently.

Posted by

I'd imagine if the FO takes a guy like Luka, then they're banking on Fox to be this guy. The kid certainly projects to be a score first PG.

 

[VF21]

Luka has spent a few weeks at P3 the past two summers. Luka combines outstanding anthropometric measurements, including an 8'9.5" standing reach (88th percentile for NBA guards) and 228.8 lbs of mass with very competitive and improving movement qualities. In the lateral plane, Luka's ability to abduct the hip (1 dev above the mean) allows him to generate Force more efficiently than most NBA players that we've assessed (71st percentile in lateral acceleration). He's become particularly adept in a change-of-direction environment, where his Slide Agility times outpace most NBA Guards tested at P3 and they've improved by roughly 0.25s in the past year. Vertically, Luka ranks better than 73% of NBA guards in height touched during the approach and his improved his countermovement jump by 2 inches in the past year. He's good now, he's still getting better, and he's well within his physical development window!


Bear in mind this was in summer 2016 when he was 17..

Since then he didin´t have time because of euroleague + eurobasket to attend anything....

From P3 in Santa Barbara(2016)

Welcome to KF. Thanks for the info.

 

[burekijogurt]

Welcome to KF. Thanks for the info.

I've would have missed this if it were not for the reply...

 

[VF21]

I've would have missed this if it were not for the reply...

He's a new member so his post was in a queue awaiting moderator approval. Since there had been a number of posts before it was approved, I thought a reply would make sure people saw it. Well, that plus I did want to welcome him to the board.

 

[sactowndog]

Luka has spent a few weeks at P3 the past two summers. Luka combines outstanding anthropometric measurements, including an 8'9.5" standing reach (88th percentile for NBA guards) and 228.8 lbs of mass with very competitive and improving movement qualities. In the lateral plane, Luka's ability to abduct the hip (1 dev above the mean) allows him to generate Force more efficiently than most NBA players that we've assessed (71st percentile in lateral acceleration). He's become particularly adept in a change-of-direction environment, where his Slide Agility times outpace most NBA Guards tested at P3 and they've improved by roughly 0.25s in the past year. Vertically, Luka ranks better than 73% of NBA guards in height touched during the approach and his improved his countermovement jump by 2 inches in the past year. He's good now, he's still getting better, and he's well within his physical development window!


Bear in mind this was in summer 2016 when he was 17..

Since then he didin´t have time because of euroleague + eurobasket to attend anything....

From P3 in Santa Barbara(2016)

8’9” standing reach is okay for an NBA SF. Combine measurements ranged from 8.75 to 9.05 from small forwards. The top guys like Porter and Knox both had 9’ standing reaches. Power forwards were almost all over 9’.

The data about lateral movement is definately positive.

 

[sactowndog]

I'm so confused. Are we now worried Luka won't be able to guard centers?

I think the valid question is where does he project. As said in the Bagley quote you are what you can defend. While an overstatement you have to guard someone.

Bogdan has an 8’ 11’ standing reach by comparison which allows him to guard 2 guards and switch when needed.

 

[ockingsfan]

Man, even if the Kings select Doncic at #2, I'm not going to rest easy until draft night is over!

Every time the commissioner, Adam Silver announces a trade, I'm going to be holding my breath!

#KANGZFORLIFE

 

[sterö]

I really think that Luka can improve his quickness and athleticism drastically with proper training. If he already looked thin/ripped, I would worry more. But there is a lot of baby fat for him to lose and muscles to build.

 

[sactowndog]

I really think that Luka can improve his quickness and athleticism drastically with proper training. If he already looked thin/ripped, I would worry more. But there is a lot of baby fat for him to lose and muscles to build.

I’m not sure how much you can improve quickness or length. Speed and strength yes but the fast twitch god put in is what it is.

 

[Sac.Kings]

I’m not sure how much you can improve quickness or length. Speed and strength yes but the fast twitch god put in is what it is.

You are incorrect. Yes he's never going to be Fox quick, but he can certainly get quicker. The easiest thing to improve in Luka's case is his body. He will have an entire team of people to help guide him. We are all born with fast twitch muscle fibers, the difference is how someone trains. You have to gear your training specifically targeting fast twitch muscle fibers. It can definitely be improved.

 

[Ozymandias]

Im cool with Doncic at 2. I worry he could end up Gordon Hayward levels of effectiveness (not equipped to carry a team thru the west) and end up trapping the franchise between a rock and a hard place the way Hayward did Utah. I also worry they could be passing on greater two-way talents. IMO the kings can use all the help they can get, not just on offense. It'd be a good show tho.

The qyualifying of competition levels going on in this thread is equal parts nauseating and hilarious..What about the competition Antetokounmpo faced? Am i to extrapolate that Doncic will perform remotely as well as giannis cuz he was primed and successful vs better competition ? Is that how this works?

A vast majority of the greatest basketball players who ever lived went to High school in the US, people taking cheapshots at these kids most likely are basing their opinions on highlight video's and speak/post like they've watchged a bunch of their games, when clearly they dont and are blatantly perpetuating false narratives ... International players across the globe enroll in thedse schools in order to test their mettle vs the top competition in their age group. Team USA dominates the youth levels even more than the senior one, IIRC the team usa U16 squad has still never lost a game.

Lastly, far too much importance is placed on the past, the draft is about the future. The NBA is an entirely different animal, great talentgs get chewed up and spit out in quick succession.

 

[kingsboi]

Im cool with Doncic at 2. I worry he could end up Gordon Hayward levels of effectiveness (not equipped to carry a team thru the west) and end up trapping the franchise between a rock and a hard place the way Hayward did Utah. I also worry they could be passing on greater two-way talents. IMO the kings can use all the help they can get, not just on offense. It'd be a good show tho.

The qyualifying of competition levels going on in this thread is equal parts nauseating and hilarious..What about the competition Antetokounmpo faced? Am i to extrapolate that Doncic will perform remotely as well as giannis cuz he was primed and successful vs better competition ? Is that how this works?

A vast majority of the greatest basketball players who ever lived went to High school in the US, people taking cheapshots at these kids most likely are basing their opinions on highlight video's and speak/post like they've watchged a bunch of their games, when clearly they dont and are blatantly perpetuating false narratives ... International players across the globe enroll in thedse schools in order to test their mettle vs the top competition in their age group. Team USA dominates the youth levels even more than the senior one, IIRC the team usa U16 squad has still never lost a game.

Lastly, far too much importance is placed on the past, the draft is about the future. The NBA is an entirely different animal, great talentgs get chewed up and spit out in quick succession.

That's the approach that I always take when I look at prospects. It's not what have you done in the past. It's what can you do for my franchise moving forward and are there a set of skills that I can work with to get the best out of that prospect. Looking at the past is one way to garner what kind of potential the player has and a good way to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses against inferior competition.

 

[sactowndog]

Luka has spent a few weeks at P3 the past two summers. Luka combines outstanding anthropometric measurements, including an 8'9.5" standing reach (88th percentile for NBA guards) and 228.8 lbs of mass with very competitive and improving movement qualities. In the lateral plane, Luka's ability to abduct the hip (1 dev above the mean) allows him to generate Force more efficiently than most NBA players that we've assessed (71st percentile in lateral acceleration). He's become particularly adept in a change-of-direction environment, where his Slide Agility times outpace most NBA Guards tested at P3 and they've improved by roughly 0.25s in the past year. Vertically, Luka ranks better than 73% of NBA guards in height touched during the approach and his improved his countermovement jump by 2 inches in the past year. He's good now, he's still getting better, and he's well within his physical development window!


Bear in mind this was in summer 2016 when he was 17..

Since then he didin´t have time because of euroleague + eurobasket to attend anything....

From P3 in Santa Barbara(2016)

Welcome to the board. Im curious if you know his standing reach do you also know his wingspan?

 

[Joshoua]

Welcome to the board. Im curious if you know his standing reach do you also know his wingspan?

6’11 i belive

 

[sactowndog]

6’11 i belive

Do you have a link for that?