We're #2! (merged)
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I'm not saying I want to trade Willie. However, if we do draft a big like Ayton/Bagley, and if FO feels Giles is good, we should.
Perhaps I'll sit down and do this analysis sometime, but I don't think lot of teams in the playoffs this year played 2 big guys lot of minutes, and almost certainly, no team played 3 big guys much. If the pick/Giles is our front court of the future, then we need to trade Willie. That said, it might not be as urgent as I earlier thought. He will still be our best big till the kids come around, and if he starts the season strong, he will have interest.
Someone mentioned trading with Cavs for the Nets pick. I actually like the idea. I think teams like Cavs, Spurs, even Rockets (if they lose Clint) could be ideal places for Willie, where veteran leadership and/or strong coach can keep him focused. Usually, trading with such teams is tough, since they don't have anything that is of interest. In this case though, Cavs do own a juicy pick that could be of interest to us. Additionally, if Bron stays, they will be motivated to do something. I think Willie can help them. I also don't think the trade is as one-sided as some people project. I think we undervalue Willie quite a lot. There is no guarantee that the 8th pick will be much better than Willie, much less a franchise cornerstone. Plus, Willie can help them now, when they need it most.
That said, I think the Suns draft Ayton, and we draft Doncic, and start the next season
Perhaps I'll sit down and do this analysis sometime, but I don't think lot of teams in the playoffs this year played 2 big guys lot of minutes, and almost certainly, no team played 3 big guys much. If the pick/Giles is our front court of the future, then we need to trade Willie. That said, it might not be as urgent as I earlier thought. He will still be our best big till the kids come around, and if he starts the season strong, he will have interest.
Someone mentioned trading with Cavs for the Nets pick. I actually like the idea. I think teams like Cavs, Spurs, even Rockets (if they lose Clint) could be ideal places for Willie, where veteran leadership and/or strong coach can keep him focused. Usually, trading with such teams is tough, since they don't have anything that is of interest. In this case though, Cavs do own a juicy pick that could be of interest to us. Additionally, if Bron stays, they will be motivated to do something. I think Willie can help them. I also don't think the trade is as one-sided as some people project. I think we undervalue Willie quite a lot. There is no guarantee that the 8th pick will be much better than Willie, much less a franchise cornerstone. Plus, Willie can help them now, when they need it most.
That said, I think the Suns draft Ayton, and we draft Doncic, and start the next season
Broadly agree, unless the difference is narrow. Doncic obviously fills our most glaring hole, while a big requires us to make a big move, where we are likely to lose value for one of our players. At the end of the day, you have to see the combination of moves that make the most sense, instead of seeing them in isolation.
Also, the assumption here is that the debate is between Doncic and Bagley or JJJ. While some may differ, I think most people agree that if Suns pick Doncic, we'll pick Ayton. The more likely scenario is that they pick Ayton, giving us a choice between the other three. If Vlade feels that Bagley/JJJ is lot better than Doncic, and worth reworking the roster for, sure. Else, pick Doncic.
Also, the assumption here is that the debate is between Doncic and Bagley or JJJ. While some may differ, I think most people agree that if Suns pick Doncic, we'll pick Ayton. The more likely scenario is that they pick Ayton, giving us a choice between the other three. If Vlade feels that Bagley/JJJ is lot better than Doncic, and worth reworking the roster for, sure. Else, pick Doncic.
I think Kosta will be better than them to begin the season at least. As good as they might be eventually, I don't see two rookie bigs being better than a seasoned vet who has been pretty good on the court.
While I understand that we shouldn't care too much about PT for ZBo or Kosta, we should try and get something for them. As ending contracts able to play at a high level (particularly Kosta), they can help a veteran team, and get us something in return.
That said, I don't think we'll need to play them too much to get this value. They have been in the league a long time, and teams know what they'll get out of them. So, my earlier thought that we should play them to showcase them is likely not relevant.
While I understand that we shouldn't care too much about PT for ZBo or Kosta, we should try and get something for them. As ending contracts able to play at a high level (particularly Kosta), they can help a veteran team, and get us something in return.
That said, I don't think we'll need to play them too much to get this value. They have been in the league a long time, and teams know what they'll get out of them. So, my earlier thought that we should play them to showcase them is likely not relevant.
Not sure I agree with the approach. Unless there is a generational type of player there ala LeBron, Duncan, Davis etc.. the draft should be all about getting the player with the highest upside and backing in your franchise's ability to develop the player.
Over the last couple of seasons, Kings have placed an enormous amount of resources into player development. We basically have a development coach per player. If you are a team like the Kings in need of a star player, you pick the player that you believe has the highest ceiling at your pick because you back in your development team to get the most out of that player. It doesn't matter where you are picking, your approach should not change. If you start picking for safer picks its how you end up with Joe Smith instead of KG or how you end up with Mike Bibby or Antawn Jamison instead of Vince Carter or how you end up with Otto Porter instead of the Greek Freak! You still have a good player but there is a clear difference between a future hall of famer or a perennial all-star and a player who has a pretty good career in his own right.
Picking safe is what you do if you are a contender and picking someone who can come in and play the role for you straight away where you know that in a particular role, they are going to be contributing players in the rotation. With picks inside lottery, you pick the players with most upside provided that you believe that there are no other factors that will affect them reaching that potential (i.e. ack of hunger to improve, no competitive spirit, health issues, off court issues etc...)
Over the last couple of seasons, Kings have placed an enormous amount of resources into player development. We basically have a development coach per player. If you are a team like the Kings in need of a star player, you pick the player that you believe has the highest ceiling at your pick because you back in your development team to get the most out of that player. It doesn't matter where you are picking, your approach should not change. If you start picking for safer picks its how you end up with Joe Smith instead of KG or how you end up with Mike Bibby or Antawn Jamison instead of Vince Carter or how you end up with Otto Porter instead of the Greek Freak! You still have a good player but there is a clear difference between a future hall of famer or a perennial all-star and a player who has a pretty good career in his own right.
Picking safe is what you do if you are a contender and picking someone who can come in and play the role for you straight away where you know that in a particular role, they are going to be contributing players in the rotation. With picks inside lottery, you pick the players with most upside provided that you believe that there are no other factors that will affect them reaching that potential (i.e. ack of hunger to improve, no competitive spirit, health issues, off court issues etc...)
Doncic has beautiful shot mechanics.
His form is compact, smooth and he gets good backspin.
His range is fairly unlimited.
I think he can be a 40% + three point shooter. However....
...he only made 87 out of 281 3s for 31%.
This cannot be due alone to heaving half-court shots to end quarters.
I am thinking shots off the dribble versus more catch and shoots may have hindered his %.
Ultimately I think his shot will be a strength of his game, not a weakness!
Additionally I see him as a being a plus defender the same way Boggy was coming into the league.
He has the size and fundamental and anticipation and his feet are quick enough to navigate in tight space.
He's not going check smaller PGs but he ought to be fine with SGs SFs and eventually even PFs.
So I have NO pressing concerns about this kids ability.
According to this documentary he started playing basketball at two months of age...
Why such a late start?
Doncic is a good looking unassuming kid with a passion for the game.
With personality looks and talent he would be highly marketable.
I wonder how much of any this would influence our owner into wanting this guy....???
The jersey sales would be through the roof and Vivek has talked about wanting to be a global franchise.
I would hope his marketability would NOT be a factor in taking him over Bagley but it could bias the team in that direction.
His form is compact, smooth and he gets good backspin.
His range is fairly unlimited.
I think he can be a 40% + three point shooter. However....
...he only made 87 out of 281 3s for 31%.
This cannot be due alone to heaving half-court shots to end quarters.
I am thinking shots off the dribble versus more catch and shoots may have hindered his %.
Ultimately I think his shot will be a strength of his game, not a weakness!
Additionally I see him as a being a plus defender the same way Boggy was coming into the league.
He has the size and fundamental and anticipation and his feet are quick enough to navigate in tight space.
He's not going check smaller PGs but he ought to be fine with SGs SFs and eventually even PFs.
So I have NO pressing concerns about this kids ability.
According to this documentary he started playing basketball at two months of age...
Why such a late start?
Doncic is a good looking unassuming kid with a passion for the game.
With personality looks and talent he would be highly marketable.
I wonder how much of any this would influence our owner into wanting this guy....???
The jersey sales would be through the roof and Vivek has talked about wanting to be a global franchise.
I would hope his marketability would NOT be a factor in taking him over Bagley but it could bias the team in that direction.
That's not what I remember. We had most of the Griffin/Rubio debates when before the lottery, when we had the worst record and thought we'd have the choice. If I recall correctly, a poll between the two either here or Sactown Royalty was tied with hundreds of votes (until I voted for Griffin ). I don't recall folks thinking Rubio would slide to the Kings at 4 -- leading to the double shock that he was available to the Kings, and that they passed on him.
). I don't recall folks thinking Rubio would slide to the Kings at 4 -- leading to the double shock that he was available to the Kings, and that they passed on him.
That's not what I remember. We had most of the Griffin/Rubio debates when before the lottery, when we had the worst record and thought we'd have the choice. If I recall correctly, a poll between the two either here or Sactown Royalty was tied with hundreds of votes (until I voted for Griffin ). I don't recall folks thinking Rubio would slide to the Kings at 4 -- leading to the double shock that he was available to the Kings, and that they passed on him.
). I don't recall folks thinking Rubio would slide to the Kings at 4 -- leading to the double shock that he was available to the Kings, and that they passed on him.
Rubio had apparently told the Kings that he would come over immediately if they drafted him which made it even crazier when we passed at #4 and took Evans. Apparently part of him not coming over until 2011 was due in part to him not understanding (just as no basketball fan seemed to understand) what David Khan was doing with the Wolves roster.
The Kings still have extremely questionable player development.
1) WCS: isn't as good as you'd hope him to be by year 3 and already 24yearsold. He's still a work-in-progress, we've seen jumpshot and passing improvements, but stagnation on defense. I'd rate this as a C in terms of player development.
2) Papagiannis: result of a poor draft pick, no good coaching can save him...and anyone who thought he could be Marc Gasol 2.0....good for you.
3) Richardson: bad luck of injuries, but he hasn't been able to develop into a NBA player in year 2. SF was wide open for him all year to take it..and he couldn't even beat out Justin Jackson of all people..
4) Labissiere: always been more of a project, has severely regressed in year 2, although it's looking like his 20 game stretch vs. NBA benches was more of a fluke than anything. haven't seen any real growth in his overall game from college. still lacks IQ, which is something coaching can't fix
We have very little sample size, but from previous history, player development has been extremely poor. Doncic and Ayton are not low-ceiling players. Yes they are "safe", but their ceilings are still all-star and +. Ayton has one of the highest ceilings in this draft, so I don't feel like we'd be settling in anyway by picking those 2. We don't have a draft pick in 2019. This is year 2 of rebuild. We really can't afford to screw up by missing on a franchise corner stone. I think Ayton and Doncic can be one of those.
1) WCS: isn't as good as you'd hope him to be by year 3 and already 24yearsold. He's still a work-in-progress, we've seen jumpshot and passing improvements, but stagnation on defense. I'd rate this as a C in terms of player development.
2) Papagiannis: result of a poor draft pick, no good coaching can save him...and anyone who thought he could be Marc Gasol 2.0....good for you.
3) Richardson: bad luck of injuries, but he hasn't been able to develop into a NBA player in year 2. SF was wide open for him all year to take it..and he couldn't even beat out Justin Jackson of all people..
4) Labissiere: always been more of a project, has severely regressed in year 2, although it's looking like his 20 game stretch vs. NBA benches was more of a fluke than anything. haven't seen any real growth in his overall game from college. still lacks IQ, which is something coaching can't fix
We have very little sample size, but from previous history, player development has been extremely poor. Doncic and Ayton are not low-ceiling players. Yes they are "safe", but their ceilings are still all-star and +. Ayton has one of the highest ceilings in this draft, so I don't feel like we'd be settling in anyway by picking those 2. We don't have a draft pick in 2019. This is year 2 of rebuild. We really can't afford to screw up by missing on a franchise corner stone. I think Ayton and Doncic can be one of those.
Since Joerger has become a coach there is a clear improvement in most of the players. Bogdan is a developer player with scope for improvement but if you compared WCS before Joerger and at the end of the season, ther eis a clear improvement. Fox, Buddy, JJ at the start of the season and end of it. Clear improvement.
We spent money on getting development coaches in and there are clear signs that we are on the right track at least on that front.
We spent money on getting development coaches in and there are clear signs that we are on the right track at least on that front.
Sorrry but for some reason I can not reply to post on this iPad. I too will be estatic with Donic as our pick, infact torn down the middle betweem him and Ayton. Phoenix fans and media convincingly want Ayton, so hopefully Giles is all that we hope. Willi might however pick up his game with Donic much as he did with Bogdan.
That's not what I remember. We had most of the Griffin/Rubio debates when before the lottery, when we had the worst record and thought we'd have the choice. If I recall correctly, a poll between the two either here or Sactown Royalty was tied with hundreds of votes (until I voted for Griffin ). I don't recall folks thinking Rubio would slide to the Kings at 4 -- leading to the double shock that he was available to the Kings, and that they passed on him.
). I don't recall folks thinking Rubio would slide to the Kings at 4 -- leading to the double shock that he was available to the Kings, and that they passed on him.
But I was ok with Tyreke at that time. A friend sold me on him leading up to the draft so I was ok with either point guard. But Curry was my top choice at #4. Admittedly, I never once thought he'd be quite as dynamic and transcendent as he's become. I don't think anybody saw that coming.But I never wanted any part of Ricky Rubio.
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I see that as a pretty distinct difference myself. The reason being we have no control over what happens with the lottery/coin toss while we have complete control over who we choose to draft. Also who we choose to draft is distinct from where we draft while both the coin toss and the lottery are directly responsible for where we draft. The world in which we lost the coin toss and are in a worse position draft-wise because of it is a brief shadow world lasting roughly a month during which time there is no actual draft. If it is more logical to you to assign truth status to that shadow world than to connect two temporarily distinct events causally which are in fact directly related to each other causally than you live in a different reality than I do. Which is fine. I believe in the Everett-Lewis interpretation of quantum mechanics so I understand already that I live in a different reality than most people.
I was just thinking how the Kings are essentially adding TWO #1 overall picks to their rotation for the upcoming season.
Think about it. Whomever they land in this upcoming draft is arguably a #1 pick by talent. There's great debate going on right now over which one should be #1.
And Harry Giles was the #1 prospect out of high school in 2015. If he hadn't been injured, there was a chance he would have played himself into #1 for last season's NBA draft. He has that kind of talent.
So if Giles injury history doesn't affect him going forward and he lives up to what we've been hearing about him for months (big IF, I know) then the Kings are basically infusing two #1 talents into their rotation.
It's a great time to be a Sacramento Kings fan!!
Think about it. Whomever they land in this upcoming draft is arguably a #1 pick by talent. There's great debate going on right now over which one should be #1.
And Harry Giles was the #1 prospect out of high school in 2015. If he hadn't been injured, there was a chance he would have played himself into #1 for last season's NBA draft. He has that kind of talent.
So if Giles injury history doesn't affect him going forward and he lives up to what we've been hearing about him for months (big IF, I know) then the Kings are basically infusing two #1 talents into their rotation.
It's a great time to be a Sacramento Kings fan!!
Doncic has beautiful shot mechanics.
His form is compact, smooth and he gets good backspin.
His range is fairly unlimited.
I think he can be a 40% + three point shooter. However....
...he only made 87 out of 281 3s for 31%.
His form is compact, smooth and he gets good backspin.
His range is fairly unlimited.
I think he can be a 40% + three point shooter. However....
...he only made 87 out of 281 3s for 31%.
For 2 point field goals it's 60%, which is good, for free throws it's 80%, which is good, but like you say, the 3 point % is only 31%. I'd like to know how many of those made 2 point field goals are layups, and then be able to exclude those from the 2 pt. % to get a better idea of what his mid-range field goal percentage is. That would give you a better idea of his future potential for 3 pt field goal percentage. Also, his shooting percentage in the playoffs isn't anything to write home about and I wonder if european playoff compeition is more like NBA competition during th regular season. If this kid is everything and a bag of chips then he's got to hold out the promise of being an excellent shooter, not just a playmaker.
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The funny thing about #2 is that it takes the pressure off of Vlade and Doncic, if we select Doncic #2.
All the pressure is really on Phoenix to take Ayton #1. If they surprise and take Doncic #1, they would have tremendous pressure on the Suns and Doncic to perform up to the #1.
For Vlade, he just needs to sit back and wait for Phoenix to make the pick and then snag whoever is left of Ayton and Doncic at #2.
All the pressure is really on Phoenix to take Ayton #1. If they surprise and take Doncic #1, they would have tremendous pressure on the Suns and Doncic to perform up to the #1.
For Vlade, he just needs to sit back and wait for Phoenix to make the pick and then snag whoever is left of Ayton and Doncic at #2.
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The thing is I trust his mechanics more than the sample size. So I am not too worried about it, though the sample size is larger than I would like to see given that his % is so low. 31% is really a range where you tell the player to cut back on your attempts and try to get to the rim more and draw fouls.
I think as Luka gets stronger and has more of a foundation under him the % will go up. And I think if he were to play with other playmakers like Boggy and Fox his % will go up as he is able to catch and shoot wide open off drive and kicks and transition.
Still even factoring out these variables if he were a "great" shooter I would expect to see his % at least 35% from deep given a sample size over 200 shots. There may be an issue with confidence or mechanics that I am overlooking. I heard someone say his motion was too slow but I cannot attest that.
Anyway it is NOT something that would stop me from picking him #2, but I would have more confidence in taking him #2 if more long balls were going in. I think Luka has the potential to be a GREAT shooter, but the stats simply don't support this. This is something Vlade or whoever takes him will have to reconcile.
I think as Luka gets stronger and has more of a foundation under him the % will go up. And I think if he were to play with other playmakers like Boggy and Fox his % will go up as he is able to catch and shoot wide open off drive and kicks and transition.
Still even factoring out these variables if he were a "great" shooter I would expect to see his % at least 35% from deep given a sample size over 200 shots. There may be an issue with confidence or mechanics that I am overlooking. I heard someone say his motion was too slow but I cannot attest that.
Anyway it is NOT something that would stop me from picking him #2, but I would have more confidence in taking him #2 if more long balls were going in. I think Luka has the potential to be a GREAT shooter, but the stats simply don't support this. This is something Vlade or whoever takes him will have to reconcile.
I haven't seen him play, but for me the key first thing I look at is quickness. If he doesn't have the quickness to get his own shot against top-flight NBA competition, it's not good. Jimmer was a classic example of that. If somebody has seen him play against some very athletic european players, it would be nice to get their observations on that particular point.
I totally agree. I have a feeling had the Kings somehow drafted Klay, Steph, Lillard etc they won't be the same players as who they are now.
As much as I like seeing Doncic in a Kings uniform, he may not turn out as well as we hoped for. But I hope I'm wrong and Kings finally get that franchise altering player with this high pick.
As much as I like seeing Doncic in a Kings uniform, he may not turn out as well as we hoped for. But I hope I'm wrong and Kings finally get that franchise altering player with this high pick.