A lot of people on here are talking about Doncic as if he's already more of a finished product. It's amazing that he is only just 19 and already such a well rounded player. I think he is still going to improve tremendously and is for sure going to be an all star in the future. I don't mind taking him or Ayton though.
We're #2! (merged)
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Maybe it's best to consider the coin flip itself as more neutral in nature. You can "win" by "losing" but in reality if you take two teams picking 6-10 in any given draft and swap their immediate draft order I bet more often than not the teams wind up with the same player regardless of draft position. Captain you are the math wizard so I will let you come with an exact percentage on that figure 
Yes. We the fans are justified in making our conjectures and draft assumptions based on Giles's non-debut in the NBA so far.
But the Kings FO folks, who actually have to make the decision, should have a real perspective on him, his medical reports, his conditioning, his attitude, and his potential. They should certainly take that into account while making the pick.
There might be a risk in projecting his practice performance to real games, that will include travel, wear and tear, etc. However, certain amount of risk is there in every decision.
I do believe that we should go with the BPA, with a small caveat. If the talent difference between two prospects is minimal (I'm using talent as a generic term to encompass everything from physical profile to skills to attitude), then we should look at fit too. Per our requirements, Luka is the obvious choice. So, if both he and Bagley (or JJJ or anyone else in consideration) is available, we should go for Luka unless we think the other player is lot better.
If we do take someone like Ayton/Bagley/JJJ, we'll likely need to trade one or both of Willie/Skal (or maybe Kosta, if he can get us a better return). As of now, we get pennies on the dollar for either of them.
But the Kings FO folks, who actually have to make the decision, should have a real perspective on him, his medical reports, his conditioning, his attitude, and his potential. They should certainly take that into account while making the pick.
There might be a risk in projecting his practice performance to real games, that will include travel, wear and tear, etc. However, certain amount of risk is there in every decision.
I do believe that we should go with the BPA, with a small caveat. If the talent difference between two prospects is minimal (I'm using talent as a generic term to encompass everything from physical profile to skills to attitude), then we should look at fit too. Per our requirements, Luka is the obvious choice. So, if both he and Bagley (or JJJ or anyone else in consideration) is available, we should go for Luka unless we think the other player is lot better.
If we do take someone like Ayton/Bagley/JJJ, we'll likely need to trade one or both of Willie/Skal (or maybe Kosta, if he can get us a better return). As of now, we get pennies on the dollar for either of them.
Tanking sucks on many levels, but I was quietly rooting for loses down the stretch seeing so many teams were blatently doing it.
My respect has grown for Vlade after listening to his post draft thoughts on this. Instilling winning regardless of draft order, it paid off, karma to other teams being pushed back so be it, maybe they will change their approach. I wish New York and Charlotte or Denver had joined Sacramento in the top three...that would have been poetic.
Again, I watched Once Brothers last night with my son, very good ESPN doc featuring Vlade, highly recommended great story that touches on the rise of European basketball.
My respect has grown for Vlade after listening to his post draft thoughts on this. Instilling winning regardless of draft order, it paid off, karma to other teams being pushed back so be it, maybe they will change their approach. I wish New York and Charlotte or Denver had joined Sacramento in the top three...that would have been poetic.
Again, I watched Once Brothers last night with my son, very good ESPN doc featuring Vlade, highly recommended great story that touches on the rise of European basketball.
In situation A I would say that the Kings won the coin toss. The tie-breaker is only relevant if neither team is awarded a top 3 pick and if one (or both) of those teams is awarded a top 3 pick than the coin toss is actually determining where those combos are assigned and thus the order they will draft in is ultimately determining who won (assuming we all agree that the end goal here is to get a higher pick in the draft).
In situation B I would agree that the Kings lost the coin toss, it just didn't matter because they went on to win the lottery. Two entirely separate events. Good luck for us, but the former does not have implications on the latter.
In situation C I would also agree that the Kings lost the coin toss, again it just didn't matter. I think this is how most people assume the lottery works which is why they want to argue that we lost the coin toss but won the lottery. But this is not the way the lottery works. It would be kindof funny though to see the size of the hopper needed to house 1000 ping pong balls.
In situation B I would agree that the Kings lost the coin toss, it just didn't matter because they went on to win the lottery. Two entirely separate events. Good luck for us, but the former does not have implications on the latter.
In situation C I would also agree that the Kings lost the coin toss, again it just didn't matter. I think this is how most people assume the lottery works which is why they want to argue that we lost the coin toss but won the lottery. But this is not the way the lottery works. It would be kindof funny though to see the size of the hopper needed to house 1000 ping pong balls.
Actually it's an interesting point - while there's obviously a big difference between #7 and #2, there may not be any difference at all between #6 and #7 (or #12 and #14, etc.), depending on which teams hold the picks. Unfortunately for your attempt to troll me into doing more math, sussing that out requires data not in evidence.
Doncic is an excellent prospect and does fit into our line up at SG or SF, but Bagley would also fit in at PF because that spot hasn't been taken, and JJJ can fit at PF or C and with his shooting he can be paired with WCS. So fit wise that trio does work, but I would take Doncic over them both.
My wild card for our pick is Porter. If he checks out medically we could be tempted by his potential to be a go to scorer and number one option. I'd be hesitant at picking him myself, I'm on board with Doncic or Ayton, but it wouldn't surprise me if we did something unexpected with our pick.
As for trading people away I don't think we have to do anything unless we get fair value offers. Willie fan start with Bagley, JJJ, Ayton with them being a PF/C combination. Skal can come off the bench with Koufos. Admittedly we don't want to lose anyone for nothing, but we are in a rebuilding phase and we need to have all the talent we can muster and hope a few of them become franchise cornerstones.
My wild card for our pick is Porter. If he checks out medically we could be tempted by his potential to be a go to scorer and number one option. I'd be hesitant at picking him myself, I'm on board with Doncic or Ayton, but it wouldn't surprise me if we did something unexpected with our pick.
As for trading people away I don't think we have to do anything unless we get fair value offers. Willie fan start with Bagley, JJJ, Ayton with them being a PF/C combination. Skal can come off the bench with Koufos. Admittedly we don't want to lose anyone for nothing, but we are in a rebuilding phase and we need to have all the talent we can muster and hope a few of them become franchise cornerstones.
I want to like Ayton because he has every measurable you could want and he looks like an Adonis on the court, but I just can't get enthusiastic about him because I don't see the competitive fire. Does he feel entitled? I find myself gravitating to both Bagley and Jackson, who are demonstrably competitive on the court. I think Bagley is going to do everything under the sun on the basketball court, including 3 point shooting. Jackson looks like he glides on the court, which is extremely rare from a 6'11" guy. He's not going to stand in the paint and wait for a guy to drive to make a block; he's going to come out of nowhere to block an outside shot at the 3 point line. If he works on his game, his fluidity is going to make the game look easy for him. He's such a young pup; you really have to use your imagination with him. As far as Doncic is concerned, I can't make a judgement about him because I haven't seen him play in games, especially against very athletic competition.
If Giles is anywhere as good as he is being projected, and we draft another big, there just aren't enough minutes to go around. We might even try to find some minutes for ZBo/Kosta to potentially find trade partners for them (in the case of Kosta, we might consider re-signing him to a new, reasonable contract). The more minutes Willie/Skal spend on the bench, lower their trade value.
Isn't Kosta's contract quite reasonable by current standards?
I will be honest, while Ayton/Giles is super intriguing, I think Doncic makes the most sense for our roster right now and might be the best fit for the modern NBA long term. But I'm also selling myself on this because I think PHX takes Ayton.
I will be honest, while Ayton/Giles is super intriguing, I think Doncic makes the most sense for our roster right now and might be the best fit for the modern NBA long term. But I'm also selling myself on this because I think PHX takes Ayton.
The only time I'm finding minutes for ZBo and Kosta is if I think they offer us a better chance to win since we aren't tanking next year - and - we can land a suitable deal for two from Giles, Skal and Willie. However if Skal/Giles coming off the bench and new player/Willie offers us better production on the court I'm happy to let the veterans value dwindle if needs must since both are out of contract after next season. Kosta is a role player and ZBo is nearly at the end of his career, as harsh as it sounds they aren't my priority nor is their trade value. The priority needs to be with the best players to help us win games now, but also help us in the future as they develop.
What makes sense for the Kings existing roster can't be a consideration for the draft. If you already have a superstar player, then yes, you draft in part based on how that kid will fit with your star. But for a perennial losing team struggling to find an identity you just take the best player and figure it out later.
Kosta's contract is $8 M for this season which is definitely reasonable but not a bargain. He, Z-Bo, Temple (if he opts in), and Shumpert (who WILL opt in) are all ending contracts this season which could make them useful trade pieces at the deadline.
Kosta's contract is $8 M for this season which is definitely reasonable but not a bargain. He, Z-Bo, Temple (if he opts in), and Shumpert (who WILL opt in) are all ending contracts this season which could make them useful trade pieces at the deadline.
But the decision is being made for us. I think both guys fit great and either is going to be BPA for us but we'll have to move some pieces to get Ayton in right away whereas Doncic hopefully fits right into our biggest hole but may leave us wanting at the 4/5 spot.
Anyways it's more a philosophical debate on where the NBA was and where it is headed, and if having Giles/Ayton pan out as projected would change what seems to be the direction of roster composition or would be a "damn this team arrived a decade too late".
Anyways it's more a philosophical debate on where the NBA was and where it is headed, and if having Giles/Ayton pan out as projected would change what seems to be the direction of roster composition or would be a "damn this team arrived a decade too late".
On Ayton I just don't see the level of value I would expect at the top of the Draft. He is probably going to have a good to great career. I just don't see him as a game changer or someone with talent that we can't find on the open market. Picking up a Dwayne Dedmon (poor mans Ayton) on the cheap would be fine as in crunch time and against some of the most effective lineups in the NBA you have to go small anyway. In this NBA you have to be able to shoot, drive and create from the perimeter.
Yeah I think this is just a different age where masking inability to switch onto guards is getting harder and harder, especially if your a playoff team. To me teams would feast on Luka's lack of foot speed and athleticism . Harden is a physical beast and always has burst when he needs it, just because he has some off speed moves doesn't mean he isn't quick off of his first step when he needs to be. Luka isn't nearly the crafty finisher that he would need to be in NBA to make up for his lack of burst and athleticism. I disagree history does matter, at least in my evaluation.
You don't have to jump higher or run faster to be more successful but you dam well better have an all world secondary talent to make up for it, I don't see that secondary talent. I don't know if 16ppg is dominating enough for me to expect to translate and get better in a league that has much better talent.
Porter Jr. is the wildcard and the guy I see with all the tools, granted those tools are very unpolished. Long wing with good lateral speed, touch on a jumper that can expand and most importantly the ability to attack any sized player off of the dribble.
That's assuming you believe it's a foregone conclusion that Ayton and Doncic go 1&2. Or more accurately, that Doncic goes #2 since I DO believe the Suns will take Ayton.
I remember when the 2009 draft was being called a 2 player draft with Blake and Rubio only for Ricky to fall to 5th while the best players were actually drafted 3rd (Harden) and 7th (Curry).
I really like Doncic even if his athletic limits make me wonder if he can be a star. But liking him doesn't mean I think it's Doncic or bust if Ayton goes #1.
I remember when the 2009 draft was being called a 2 player draft with Blake and Rubio only for Ricky to fall to 5th while the best players were actually drafted 3rd (Harden) and 7th (Curry).
I really like Doncic even if his athletic limits make me wonder if he can be a star. But liking him doesn't mean I think it's Doncic or bust if Ayton goes #1.
Go back and watch Harden at Arizona State. He was smaller and had more hops, but his game sure looks a lot like Doncic.
Porter has shown absolutely no interest in playing help defense, or much defense at all for that matter. Look how he hedges high against every P&R. That's not just apathy on that end, it's a lack of foot speed. And his lack of lower body strength/bulk means he very easily gets pushed out of position on offense or defense. That and his underdeveloped handle are why his go-to move when cut off by a defender is to elevate for a jump shot every time. Even before the injury concerns I thought Porter was a bigger risk than Doncic.
If the Kings stayed at 7 I liked Carter (assuming Bagley, Doncic or JJJ didn't tumble) but I wouldn't have been upset with a gamble on Porter, hoping his scoring translated to the NBA. But at #2? I'd be upset. I could understand Bagley or JJJ rather than Doncic, but not Porter.
Porter has shown absolutely no interest in playing help defense, or much defense at all for that matter. Look how he hedges high against every P&R. That's not just apathy on that end, it's a lack of foot speed. And his lack of lower body strength/bulk means he very easily gets pushed out of position on offense or defense. That and his underdeveloped handle are why his go-to move when cut off by a defender is to elevate for a jump shot every time. Even before the injury concerns I thought Porter was a bigger risk than Doncic.
If the Kings stayed at 7 I liked Carter (assuming Bagley, Doncic or JJJ didn't tumble) but I wouldn't have been upset with a gamble on Porter, hoping his scoring translated to the NBA. But at #2? I'd be upset. I could understand Bagley or JJJ rather than Doncic, but not Porter.
Setting aside how many people might misapprehend the lottery mechanics, I don't think that's why people argue we lost the coin toss. They argue we lost the coin toss because they (like I) see it as independent of the lottery process. It seems that for you, the "coin toss" is not over until the lotto balls are selected. But if that's the case, why stop there? What if the player we take at #2 turns out to get injured and have essentially no career, while the player taken at #6 becomes a multiple-time All-Star? Do we go back to losing the coin toss? I don't see why not.
I feel like 2009 was considered fairly deep and a lot of people thought Rubio would fall to us at 4 because there were questions about whether he would play right away. Maybe I am wrong.
I just don't see how the teams picking 1 & 2 don't pick Ayton and Doncic. If you are iffy on either, you trade down to someone willing to bet the farm you're a fool. I actually think we could swap with Atlanta and take their 2019 if that's the case.
I just don't see how the teams picking 1 & 2 don't pick Ayton and Doncic. If you are iffy on either, you trade down to someone willing to bet the farm you're a fool. I actually think we could swap with Atlanta and take their 2019 if that's the case.
His rim protection is also abysmally bad for a guy with his tools. 260 lbs of muscle with a 7'5" wingspan and (reportedly) 40" vertical and he blocks half as many shots per 40 as Jaren Jackson? Analytically he's down in Jahlil Okafor territory in terms of defense and block rates.
I watch him play and I just don't understand it. I understood with Okafor - he's a plodder. But with Ayton it was like I was always waiting for him to snap out of it and be a great defensive anchor and it never happened.
But hey, effort was also the big question mark that caused Drummond to fall and he's been fine on the defensive end. If Drummond had Ayton's offensive talent he'd be all-NBA first team.
This draft is loaded with bad defensive players up top. Young and Doncic because they can't contain explosive offensive players and Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, & Porter because they don't seem to give great effort or focus on that end. Jaren Jackson and Mikal Bridges are the only good defenders projected for the lottery IMO.
I watch him play and I just don't understand it. I understood with Okafor - he's a plodder. But with Ayton it was like I was always waiting for him to snap out of it and be a great defensive anchor and it never happened.
But hey, effort was also the big question mark that caused Drummond to fall and he's been fine on the defensive end. If Drummond had Ayton's offensive talent he'd be all-NBA first team.
This draft is loaded with bad defensive players up top. Young and Doncic because they can't contain explosive offensive players and Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, & Porter because they don't seem to give great effort or focus on that end. Jaren Jackson and Mikal Bridges are the only good defenders projected for the lottery IMO.
Whether we have seen him or not is irrelevant. Vlade has been watching him scrimmage against other NBA athletes for months. I'm guessing Vlade feels he has a pretty good handle on Giles. In terms of BPA, I generally largely agree with you but fit matters most with Bigs who can't shoot with high percentage from the perimeter and play stretch four. I am not saying that is Ayton or Giles can or can't but one of them will have to. It is not like wings that can fit into the 2,3,4 spot with no problem.
One point to consider. It's not an absolute certainty that Doncic will come over if drafted, especially by a small market team. The NBA rookie wage scale can come close to costing a player money because the Euro salary is net taxes and agent commissions. Plus Luca is in a major Euro market (Madrid =6.3M) versus Sacramento (1M Metro).