Randle is quite an interesting player who markedly improved his ability to finish under the basket this year, but you need to compensate for his weaknesses with your roster. Let's take a look at how he compares with his peers:
- He's a great passer for a big man, with an AST % of 15.8% this year (top 10% of all bigs). The previous season, he had an assist rate of 19.5%. For comparison's sake, Willie possessed a 13.5% assist rate this season.
- He's unfortunately very turnover prone @ 16.7% (good for bottom 21% of bigs), and this rate has been increasing every season. Quite plainly, he turns it over more than he creates, with the previous season being an outlier.
- He has not been able to extend his range outside the basket, and smartly cut out the midrange shots this year, while also increasing his frequency of shots at the rim (69%) AND FG % (69%) under the basket, both putting him in the top 3rd of all bigs last season.
- He's just an above average rebounder, but improved his offensive rebounding this season.
- He's got a really bad Steal and Block rate, consistently ranking in the bottom 3rd for steals and bottom 25% for blocks... and this hasn't improved likely due to his physical limitations.
- His PER has improved every year, and is just under fringe all-star level (<20) this last season.
Qualitatively, he's got some nasty in him that I like, he's been dedicated to improving his body (which tends to get out of shape quickly) and he's smartly made his game more efficient this season by cutting out the midrange shots that likely will never come.
Going into the draft, scouts questioned his ability to score at the rim due to his shots being very blockable. They were. But he's overcome this, obviously with hard work and dedication. How can you not like that?
But is he worth $15-20m? I question that - I see too many similarities between Randle and Enes Kanter. Both are highly efficient scorers who have phenomenally low block and steal rates. Randle also possesses a lack of shooting range and a penchant for coughing the ball up, which can negate his passing skills. If you throw down starter money on Randle - and he's able to maintain what he did this year - you need to have a rangy C who can block shots, get steals, take care of the ball
and hit the three ball... if not at least a deadly midrange jumper.
But let's say - best case - he keeps on improving, maintains his fitness, adds a 3pt shot, cuts his turnovers and maintains his assist %. Even then, you still have a massive defensive issue with Randle due to his physical limitations. So do you bet on continued refinement, and a 3pt shot, and a shotblocking big who can cover up his defensive issues?
At this point, I think you're playing whack-a-mole with your lineup. So in my opinion, so unless you can get Randle at a tradeable value, I'd keep on looking.