The development of our players is more important than what could possibly happen in 2018. We don't have know what we have. We may already have three all-star caliber players on our team with Fox, Buddy and Skal. It is more important that we nurture this talent with the right veterans around them then plot for ways to get the 4th versus 12th pick in 2018. I agree with you the risk of the deal with Millsap is the 3rd and 4th year and declining productivity. But he's a savvy and heady player and so will likely still be effective as his athleticism declines. The risk is an overpay I think is worth it to help these young guys turn into true pros and so they experience success.
The other variable is the West is wide open. The Lakers are a joke. The Suns are terrible. The Mavs are terrible. The Clippers could implode if they lose one or both of Paul and Griffin. The Grizzlies are old. The Pelicans are two man team if Holiday walks & will be team of turmoil if history is any indication. The Jazz will take step back if they lose Hayward. The Nuggets score but play NO defense The Wolves took step forward with Butler but that's still a team of mismatched talent. The only teams I would concede as better than the Kings in the West are:
- Warriors
- Spurs
- Rockets
- Blazers
- Jazz
A team capable of finishing 6th in West (Kings?) is at least a 35 win team. And I am not that impressed with Rockets, Blazers or Jazz (if they lose Hayward). I certainly think our guys think they are capable of competing against these guys. So if this is the landscape before potential dramatic improvement this summer why should we just rollover and concede the season in name of developing young guys? We should develop our young guys simultaneously with trying to win. We need to try to win so that culture change is reflected in the win / loss column. This means spending on quality players now instead of postponing success for a day that may never come.
I don't expect the Kings to win many games next season. And as long as the young guys develop that's not a huge deal.
That said, it shouldn't be a "tank year". I want the young guys to win as many games as they can. And while I think the Kings are better off taking on a bad contract or two for young players and/or draft picks rather than spending on a guy like Millsap, I wouldn't be upset if they wisely spend on a couple more vets to help the kids figure things out.
As for the western conference, there are really the Warriors and everyone else with the Spurs and the Rockets likely the only other teams that could possibly challenge them. The Jazz are impressively defensively but they could possibly lose Hayward (as you mentioned) but also it seems like they are ready to move on from George Hill.
The Blazers looked good after getting Nurkic, but they are still terrible defensively, especially on the perimeter and I'm not sure what the ceiling is for a team led by a pair of 6'3" gunner guards that don't really make their teammates better.
The team I'm really not sure about is the Timberwolves. Butler is a great two way player but one of the biggest issues for Minnesota is a lack of outside shooting (they took and made the fewest number or 3's of all teams last season) and replaced LaVine (who shot 6.6 threes per game at 38.7%) with Butler who shot half as many threes per game and at a slightly lower percentage.
It's hard to say how things will change this summer but I'm not sure I see the Kings competing for a playoff spot regardless. I'd certainly love it if they did.
I think the Kings should try to take on a bad contract or two to return a quality young player and/or draft picks but if not I wouldn't mind seeing them signing Teodosic, Ingles and Patterson to fill the remaining roster holes. Porter would be my first choice but I don't see Washington letting him go. Utah may also match all but a ridiculous offer for Ingles too and as much as I like him, it's not worth vastly overpaying for a 29 year old role player, even if he is a great fit.