Just to add to the previous post. Buddy Hield was just a 6'5" skinny kid when he arrived at Oklahoma. His freshman year, he shot only 23.8% from the three. Hield, like Fox is a very hard worker willing to put in the time, and when he left Oklahoma his senior year, he shot 45.7% from the three. Does that guarantee that Fox will become a lights out shooter? No, of course not, but I wouldn't bet against it.
De'Aaron Fox:
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Fox's 3 point shot looks a lot like Lonzo Ball's shot, but Ball makes a greater percentage.
I am a bit concerned about his shot, considering almost all of his highlights are just of him driving, putting up floaters and passing.
That said, his game reminds me a lot of Rajon Rondo, with more potential on the offensive side. He seems to make the game easier for his teammates.
I can only hope he develops his shot quickly (hint, hint Peja), if the Kings draft him at 5.
I am a bit concerned about his shot, considering almost all of his highlights are just of him driving, putting up floaters and passing.
That said, his game reminds me a lot of Rajon Rondo, with more potential on the offensive side. He seems to make the game easier for his teammates.
I can only hope he develops his shot quickly (hint, hint Peja
), if the Kings draft him at 5. 
Yeah, you can't look at this video and tell me his shot is broken or it won't improve. Good lift, high release point, better landing spot, keeping the elbow tight.
As a side-note, you can tell he's very comfortable speaking to a camera and giving a great interview. Projects confidence well without sounding arrogant. Goes back to those "leader" comments we've been hearing about him and something we shouldn't discount (especially in relation to DSJ) on a team without a captain right now.
As a side-note, you can tell he's very comfortable speaking to a camera and giving a great interview. Projects confidence well without sounding arrogant. Goes back to those "leader" comments we've been hearing about him and something we shouldn't discount (especially in relation to DSJ) on a team without a captain right now.
Fox's shot looks a lot better on this workout video, which is a good thing.
There is not much video on Fox's shot, except for his "Weakness" Video on draftexpress.com and those videos are pretty grainy. From those videos, it looked like he had a bit of a curl to his form on the 3 point shot, like Lonzo.
But, his shot looks a lot better in these more recent workout videos. Hopefully that translates to his on the court game and shot confidence.
There is not much video on Fox's shot, except for his "Weakness" Video on draftexpress.com and those videos are pretty grainy. From those videos, it looked like he had a bit of a curl to his form on the 3 point shot, like Lonzo.
But, his shot looks a lot better in these more recent workout videos. Hopefully that translates to his on the court game and shot confidence.
Can somebody sell me on De'Aaaron Fox?
I admit I did not watch a single college basketball game this season, but here is what I saw when I look at his college stats:
In seven games he had more TOs than assists, a highly unusual stats for a PG. There are 15 games he had 3 assists or less, another highly usual stat. His assists to TO ratio is as average as they come. Now, if this kid is a high octane scorer who takes on a lot of the scoring load, those stats might make sense but he isn't.
From what I understand, he can't shoot and is mostly a slasher with average playmaking ability. That basically makes him the next Marcus Banks, abeit a taller version.
Bottom line is, when a player can't shoot and is only an average playmaker; he really have to be great in other areas to make up for it; and even then you're looking at a role player tops; size and speed and all. What makes this kid different? Are you guys banking on him improving that shot or becoming a good playmaker? What if he doesn't?
Please, somebody sell me this kid.
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I admit I did not watch a single college basketball game this season, but here is what I saw when I look at his college stats:
In seven games he had more TOs than assists, a highly unusual stats for a PG. There are 15 games he had 3 assists or less, another highly usual stat. His assists to TO ratio is as average as they come. Now, if this kid is a high octane scorer who takes on a lot of the scoring load, those stats might make sense but he isn't.
From what I understand, he can't shoot and is mostly a slasher with average playmaking ability. That basically makes him the next Marcus Banks, abeit a taller version.
Bottom line is, when a player can't shoot and is only an average playmaker; he really have to be great in other areas to make up for it; and even then you're looking at a role player tops; size and speed and all. What makes this kid different? Are you guys banking on him improving that shot or becoming a good playmaker? What if he doesn't?
Please, somebody sell me this kid.
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Fox's shot isn't anything like Ball's. Lonzo actually brings the ball across his face. It's very effective when he's set and has time (and he actually gets it off surprisingly quickly) but it is some of the funkiest mechanics I've ever seen.
Fox has pretty traditional mechanics. My issues - even in that video where his shot is looking improved - are that it's still a relatively slow shot with a bit of wasted movement and that he's got a fairly low release point with inconsistent rotation.
It's been a long time since I watched Rondo as a freshman at Kentucky but from my hazy memory Fox shares some similarities. I think Rondo was a better ball handler and of course has the freakish wingspan while I think Fox is significantly quicker end to end and more aggressive offensively. Rondo became a far better passer but in their first year I think they compare relatively well.
Fox has pretty traditional mechanics. My issues - even in that video where his shot is looking improved - are that it's still a relatively slow shot with a bit of wasted movement and that he's got a fairly low release point with inconsistent rotation.
It's been a long time since I watched Rondo as a freshman at Kentucky but from my hazy memory Fox shares some similarities. I think Rondo was a better ball handler and of course has the freakish wingspan while I think Fox is significantly quicker end to end and more aggressive offensively. Rondo became a far better passer but in their first year I think they compare relatively well.
Fox has been my favorite player since I started scouting like 2-3 months ago. He's going to be a star. I have no doubt. With PGs, you have to be able to (1) get to spots on the floor and (2) be able to cause defense to collapse and maintain your dribble under pressure (3) attack driving lanes on offense. Fox does all of this because he has elite speed and length to cover space and the handles to go either direction. He also has a step back stop on a dime footwork.
Even though his shots did not go in he has the speed and size to get clean looks at the rim for himself or draw and kick. He struggled as freshman with other alpha recruits at Kentucky not unlike Skal did in his time there and Willie did sharing time with Towns. But the key was when the tournament rolled around how he elevated his play with 39 points vs Ball. This significant improvement in the biggest game portends a high ceiling. There's nothing dramatically wrong with his mechanics.
And he has confidence and intelligence as a player where he's not going to be like Ben McLemore as far as I can tell where he has a mental block that inhibits his ability to knock down open shots. I guess all guys have ebbs and flows to confidence, but he strikes me as a player with a lot of moxie. And where that originates from is his elite speed and quickness to get wherever he wants on the court.
Defensively he can be spectacular by shooting the gaps. passing lanes. He's lean with wiry strength so he will be good at getting around picks unlike someone like Tyreke who was so thick he gets stuck on picks because of his bulk. There was one play that epitomizes his upside in the tourney where he took off from 15 feet against pressure got clear and jammed with force. You don't see PGs with short of "a runway" explode like that. The only PGs in the NBA that I think can do that would be Westbrook and John Wall.
He also is amazing in the open court with direct line drives, in and out dribble, and the Euro step, to finish near or above the rim. In tournament he made floaters too with a soft touch. So once he's nailing his jumper which is just a matter of repetition and adds more muscle to deal with the stronger PGs he can be a force. The last thing is that he's a lefty which is nice unorthodox aspect to his game that throws off defenders.
I was thinking about the teams ahead of, in particular the Lakers, and their desire to add UFA in 2018 in Paul George and Boogie Cousins next summer. Add those potential players to other scorers like Randle, Ingram and Russell, and Ball makes more sense there to get them all their shots and keep them happy. That puts us two pick away from landing Fox with Monk, Tatum and Jackson on the board. That puts our odds to land Fox at least 50%. Quite the pleasant surprise when 24 hours ago the odds seemed about 0%.
Even though his shots did not go in he has the speed and size to get clean looks at the rim for himself or draw and kick. He struggled as freshman with other alpha recruits at Kentucky not unlike Skal did in his time there and Willie did sharing time with Towns. But the key was when the tournament rolled around how he elevated his play with 39 points vs Ball. This significant improvement in the biggest game portends a high ceiling. There's nothing dramatically wrong with his mechanics.
And he has confidence and intelligence as a player where he's not going to be like Ben McLemore as far as I can tell where he has a mental block that inhibits his ability to knock down open shots. I guess all guys have ebbs and flows to confidence, but he strikes me as a player with a lot of moxie. And where that originates from is his elite speed and quickness to get wherever he wants on the court.
Defensively he can be spectacular by shooting the gaps. passing lanes. He's lean with wiry strength so he will be good at getting around picks unlike someone like Tyreke who was so thick he gets stuck on picks because of his bulk. There was one play that epitomizes his upside in the tourney where he took off from 15 feet against pressure got clear and jammed with force. You don't see PGs with short of "a runway" explode like that. The only PGs in the NBA that I think can do that would be Westbrook and John Wall.
He also is amazing in the open court with direct line drives, in and out dribble, and the Euro step, to finish near or above the rim. In tournament he made floaters too with a soft touch. So once he's nailing his jumper which is just a matter of repetition and adds more muscle to deal with the stronger PGs he can be a force. The last thing is that he's a lefty which is nice unorthodox aspect to his game that throws off defenders.
I was thinking about the teams ahead of, in particular the Lakers, and their desire to add UFA in 2018 in Paul George and Boogie Cousins next summer. Add those potential players to other scorers like Randle, Ingram and Russell, and Ball makes more sense there to get them all their shots and keep them happy. That puts us two pick away from landing Fox with Monk, Tatum and Jackson on the board. That puts our odds to land Fox at least 50%. Quite the pleasant surprise when 24 hours ago the odds seemed about 0%.
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Fox is not a great playmaker. He's decent in the pick & roll and can drive and kick but (at least right now) he doesn't orchestrate an offense the way a guy like Ball does.
Part of that was sharing ballhandling/initiating duties with Monk but mostly it's the nature of his game. He's more of a lead guard with elite quickness and speed who can get wherever he wants on the floor. He'll need to add strength (especially to those legs) but he can be a very good defender too. And I don't have any concerns about his attitude either. With Jackson, Smith and to a lesser extent Fultz (all for different reasons) I do. If he becomes a consistent outside shooter Fox can be a star.
I'll be disappointed if he's not there at five. I'd rather gamble on Fox becoming a better shooter than gamble on Tatum's ISO game translating and being effective in today's NBA or gambling on Smith Jr avoiding another knee injury and always playing hard.
Part of that was sharing ballhandling/initiating duties with Monk but mostly it's the nature of his game. He's more of a lead guard with elite quickness and speed who can get wherever he wants on the floor. He'll need to add strength (especially to those legs) but he can be a very good defender too. And I don't have any concerns about his attitude either. With Jackson, Smith and to a lesser extent Fultz (all for different reasons) I do. If he becomes a consistent outside shooter Fox can be a star.
I'll be disappointed if he's not there at five. I'd rather gamble on Fox becoming a better shooter than gamble on Tatum's ISO game translating and being effective in today's NBA or gambling on Smith Jr avoiding another knee injury and always playing hard.
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I think Dennis Smith Jr is a HARD PASS at #5 and #10 because as tantalizing of an offensive player as he is, he's going to get torched on defense with combination of (1) questionable attitude (2) lateral mobility following ACL and (3) below average wingspan at that position (6'3"). We have been in the bottom 5-10 teams defensively for how many years in a row now? Adding a projected BAD defender would be borderline front office negligence!
If you do not have defender who can slow the point of attack all your teammates have to rotate and cover for a PG defender who cannot stay in front of his man. DSJ has incredible offensive instincts but the Kings cannot afford to add another matador defender on perimeter as another long line of matador defenders! Just like I want no part of Lonzo Ball I am placing Smith into the same category.....PASS and PASS!
Once we land De'Aaron Fox with the 5th pick (putting positive vibes out into the Universe) I would like to see us offer the #10 and Koufos for Jonathan Isaac, if in fact a team in the #6 to #9 range is so inclined. Now if we are rebuffed in this effort, I am warming up to the idea of a STRETCH 5 with the 10th pick, either Lauri or Zack Collins. If we are going to build with Willie, Skal and Papa G as our bigs, it would be nice to have a 4th big who can play on perimeter and open up the lane.
We saw guards (especially Lawson) struggle when lane is too crowded when Joerger was playing Boogie and Koufos together. Obviously the 4th big to complement our three young bigs with a perimeter game is NOT Koufos. No slight against Koufos but he's expendable with emergence of Papa G. Collins or Lauri if deemed to have star potential seem like logical pick at #10 if Isaac is gone and OG is deemed to be too damaged, unskilled or risky as a combo forward. Collins is a guy to keep an eye one. The game comes easy to him.
If you do not have defender who can slow the point of attack all your teammates have to rotate and cover for a PG defender who cannot stay in front of his man. DSJ has incredible offensive instincts but the Kings cannot afford to add another matador defender on perimeter as another long line of matador defenders! Just like I want no part of Lonzo Ball I am placing Smith into the same category.....PASS and PASS!
Once we land De'Aaron Fox with the 5th pick (putting positive vibes out into the Universe
) I would like to see us offer the #10 and Koufos for Jonathan Isaac, if in fact a team in the #6 to #9 range is so inclined. Now if we are rebuffed in this effort, I am warming up to the idea of a STRETCH 5 with the 10th pick, either Lauri or Zack Collins. If we are going to build with Willie, Skal and Papa G as our bigs, it would be nice to have a 4th big who can play on perimeter and open up the lane. We saw guards (especially Lawson) struggle when lane is too crowded when Joerger was playing Boogie and Koufos together. Obviously the 4th big to complement our three young bigs with a perimeter game is NOT Koufos. No slight against Koufos but he's expendable with emergence of Papa G. Collins or Lauri if deemed to have star potential seem like logical pick at #10 if Isaac is gone and OG is deemed to be too damaged, unskilled or risky as a combo forward. Collins is a guy to keep an eye one. The game comes easy to him.
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I really do appreciate the analysis of Foxs' shooting mechanics. How does it compare to Elfrid Payton when he came into the league? Or Rubio? Or Tyreke? Or Exum? Or Schroder? Or Wall? Or Collison? Or Larry Hughes (of years ago)? Or Michael Carter Williams? The whole thing seems like such a crap shoot to me. Even if a guy has perfect form, his touch may be poor, and therefore he's still not a good outside shooter. Right? All I can say is, I sure hope the Kings' management really has a science behind their analysis of the shooting potential of a guy like Fox before they take him.
I think it's also fair to point out, that other than Monk, Kentucky had no other player that was a consistent outside shooter. Briscoe couldn't shoot a pea into the ocean from the three. Adebayo was nothing but a dunker. Both Gabriel and Mulder were very inconsistent. The only other player that was a decent shooter was Willis. My point being, that Fox really didn't have a lot of options once in the lane. Either kick the ball to an inconsistent shooter, or take it to the basket. It became harder and harder to get Monk open as the season went on with all the teams game planning for him then Monk.
So to me, the question is does he have the ability to make the pass? I think he does, and it will be easier for him in the NBA where you can't let your center camp in the lane, and with the better spacing. Just an opinion of course.
So to me, the question is does he have the ability to make the pass? I think he does, and it will be easier for him in the NBA where you can't let your center camp in the lane, and with the better spacing. Just an opinion of course.
Fox is decent in the pick and roll and good at finding rim running bigs in transition. Where he showed the most NBA promise (to me) is in collapsing defenses and kicking the ball out. And as Baja points out, that wasn't something he could do at Kentucky.
Fox isn't a tremendous playmaker. His value is in being a lead guard/scorer who can collapse the defense and who can be a very good defender. He's not a bad passer though.
But his shot definitely worries me. It should improve but statistically he was terrible this year. Worse than Tyreke was at Memphis. That's worrisome.
Fox isn't a tremendous playmaker. His value is in being a lead guard/scorer who can collapse the defense and who can be a very good defender. He's not a bad passer though.
But his shot definitely worries me. It should improve but statistically he was terrible this year. Worse than Tyreke was at Memphis. That's worrisome.
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Yeah, it can be hard in general for college point guards in general to put up the gaudy assist numbers of the NBA, given the slower pace of the game, sometimes awful supporting casts, and rules that aren't conducive to explosive offense.
Fox put up 4.6 APG in 30 MPG in his season at Kentucky.
For comparison, John Wall averaged 6.5 apg in 35 mpg in his season but he also had a supporting cast that featured a several time all-star (Boogie), a guy who'd probably be an all-star if he wasn't always so darn injured (Bledsoe), a really good stretch 4 (P-Pat), and three other guys who've had/have NBA careers (Liggins/Darius Miller/Daniel Orton)
Now, I don't thing Fox is every gonna put up Rondo-esque 12 apg seasons or anything but, considering Joerger runs an altered Princeton Offense/Triangle Offense system, it's probably a good thing he isn't. Joerger worked wonders with Mike Conley and I think Fox can fit this system just as well as Conley did
Fox put up 4.6 APG in 30 MPG in his season at Kentucky.
For comparison, John Wall averaged 6.5 apg in 35 mpg in his season but he also had a supporting cast that featured a several time all-star (Boogie), a guy who'd probably be an all-star if he wasn't always so darn injured (Bledsoe), a really good stretch 4 (P-Pat), and three other guys who've had/have NBA careers (Liggins/Darius Miller/Daniel Orton)
Now, I don't thing Fox is every gonna put up Rondo-esque 12 apg seasons or anything but, considering Joerger runs an altered Princeton Offense/Triangle Offense system, it's probably a good thing he isn't. Joerger worked wonders with Mike Conley and I think Fox can fit this system just as well as Conley did
By no means an I saying that Fox is the second coming of Rondo. My point is, that early in the season, he made those passes, especially to Monk. But as the season wore on, they took Monk away by denying him the ball, and left Fox few options other than the occasional lob to Adebayo. So I've seen him make those passes, and therefore know he's capable of making them. Most people seem to question whether he can make the pass because he didn't jump off the page at you in that dept, like Ball did.
So you can look at this two different ways. You can assume that Fox isn't a good passer or is selfish with the ball, because he didn't pass the ball off penetration the way a Rondo or this season, Ball did. Or you can assume that he's capable of making those passes, but didn't have anyone he felt confident in to pass to that was open. I lean very hard toward the latter. Fox is a team player who will do whatever is asked of him. He's also a very young player, who is still learning and developing. When you combine terrific athleticism with dedication and hard work, you'll almost always end up with a good to great basketball player.
I hate to end on a bad note, but to be honest, I don't think Fox is going to be there at 5. I think either the 76érs or the Sun's will grab him. Which will leave us most likely with Tatum or Jackson. Between those two, I have more questions about Jackson than I do Tatum. But that's another thread.
So you can look at this two different ways. You can assume that Fox isn't a good passer or is selfish with the ball, because he didn't pass the ball off penetration the way a Rondo or this season, Ball did. Or you can assume that he's capable of making those passes, but didn't have anyone he felt confident in to pass to that was open. I lean very hard toward the latter. Fox is a team player who will do whatever is asked of him. He's also a very young player, who is still learning and developing. When you combine terrific athleticism with dedication and hard work, you'll almost always end up with a good to great basketball player.
I hate to end on a bad note, but to be honest, I don't think Fox is going to be there at 5. I think either the 76érs or the Sun's will grab him. Which will leave us most likely with Tatum or Jackson. Between those two, I have more questions about Jackson than I do Tatum. But that's another thread.
The bread and butter of NBA offenses these days is the drive and kick. IT, Lebron, Harden, Wall, Westbrook....all these guys make a living by driving into the paint and either kicking the ball out to an open shooter or scoring at the rim if the help doesn't come. I see Fox in the same vain as far as that goes. His 3 point percentage was low but his overall percentage was above average so that tells you that he knows how to score once he gets inside.
I don't see the all natural play making abilities of a Wall, Westbrook, Harden or Lebron but I think he's certainly going to eclipse his 4.5 assist mark from college just based on how the NBA game works and how hard of a worker the kid seems to be. I see him as an 8 assist guy in his prime as long as he doesn't have any knee injuries to slow him down. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he was a high turnover, average assist player his first couple years until he starts to figure things out. But if we can keep the core we have and these other guys all improve as well, the play making should come a lot easier.
I don't see the all natural play making abilities of a Wall, Westbrook, Harden or Lebron but I think he's certainly going to eclipse his 4.5 assist mark from college just based on how the NBA game works and how hard of a worker the kid seems to be. I see him as an 8 assist guy in his prime as long as he doesn't have any knee injuries to slow him down. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he was a high turnover, average assist player his first couple years until he starts to figure things out. But if we can keep the core we have and these other guys all improve as well, the play making should come a lot easier.
Well I think you've struck on it. The first question we need to ask is what kind of PG's are the Kings looking for. It appears to me that Vlade is trying to build a team that mirrors the old Kings team he was on, and if so, then a Rondo type of PG wouldn't be a good fit. Fox may well be exactly what the doctor ordered. Someone that can break down defenses with penetration. Someone that can push the ball up the court before the opposition can get it's defense set, and therefore get some easy baskets. Fox can create chaos on the court, and he does so without turning the ball over, something that seems to be forgotten at times.
For a player to play at that speed and not turn the ball over much is amazing. That tells me that he has good handles, and that he makes good decisions with the ball. I know some would say that he was ball dominate, but when you consider that Kentucky's average time of possession was around 14 seconds, he's hardly guilty of pounding the ball. That means he made quick decisions with the ball. I'd like to point out again that in college, penetration and even running the P&R can be more difficult because of not having a defensive 3 second rule. Centers can set up a tent and camp in the lane making it very difficult to penetrate at times. Despite that, they couldn't keep Fox out of the lane.
For a player to play at that speed and not turn the ball over much is amazing. That tells me that he has good handles, and that he makes good decisions with the ball. I know some would say that he was ball dominate, but when you consider that Kentucky's average time of possession was around 14 seconds, he's hardly guilty of pounding the ball. That means he made quick decisions with the ball. I'd like to point out again that in college, penetration and even running the P&R can be more difficult because of not having a defensive 3 second rule. Centers can set up a tent and camp in the lane making it very difficult to penetrate at times. Despite that, they couldn't keep Fox out of the lane.
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