Now that we know the draft order, who do we draft? (New thread)
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I'm conflicted with Ball. On the one hand I see a guy who will struggle to guard his position in the NBA. I see a guy who struggles to turn the corner or beat his man to attack the basket. I see a guy who is far more effective in transition than in the halfcourt and who hasn't shown me he can run an effective pick and roll. I also wonder about his ability to get that funky shot off regularly on the next level.
But on the other hand I see a kid who completely transformed UCLA's offense. I've never thought of Alford as a good offensive coach and his offenses have rarely been highly ranked. This year with Ball running the show they were one of the most effective offenses in the country. He has a ridiculous true shot percentage and a very good assist to turnover ratio while making some absolutely ridiculous passes and generally making great decisions with the ball. He reminds me a lot of Jason Kidd at Cal. He's not nearly the defender but he's a far better shooter and everything else seems very similar.
If he drops to 5 then I think you have to gamble and take him. I don't think there's much chance he's a bust. I think at worst he's a rotational player in the NBA. But what I see as the difference between his floor and ceiling scares me. And honestly while his Dad's need to get in the spotlight shouldn't really affect Ball's draft stock, I really, really don't want to have to listen to Lavar Ball for several years. Especially when I think he'd be working behind the scenes (and probably in front of the cameras too actually) to get his son traded to L.A. or another big market.
My last spin on Tankathon gave the Sixers #1 and the Lakers pick at either #4 or #5. I remember thinking that Ball and Monk would make a pretty perfect backcourt for them to go along with Simmons and Embiid. Instead I think it's a near lock that Ball goes #2 to the L.A. I really enjoyed watching him play in college but if he ends up as a Laker I'm obviously going to be rooting for him to struggle mightily.
But on the other hand I see a kid who completely transformed UCLA's offense. I've never thought of Alford as a good offensive coach and his offenses have rarely been highly ranked. This year with Ball running the show they were one of the most effective offenses in the country. He has a ridiculous true shot percentage and a very good assist to turnover ratio while making some absolutely ridiculous passes and generally making great decisions with the ball. He reminds me a lot of Jason Kidd at Cal. He's not nearly the defender but he's a far better shooter and everything else seems very similar.
If he drops to 5 then I think you have to gamble and take him. I don't think there's much chance he's a bust. I think at worst he's a rotational player in the NBA. But what I see as the difference between his floor and ceiling scares me. And honestly while his Dad's need to get in the spotlight shouldn't really affect Ball's draft stock, I really, really don't want to have to listen to Lavar Ball for several years. Especially when I think he'd be working behind the scenes (and probably in front of the cameras too actually) to get his son traded to L.A. or another big market.
My last spin on Tankathon gave the Sixers #1 and the Lakers pick at either #4 or #5. I remember thinking that Ball and Monk would make a pretty perfect backcourt for them to go along with Simmons and Embiid. Instead I think it's a near lock that Ball goes #2 to the L.A. I really enjoyed watching him play in college but if he ends up as a Laker I'm obviously going to be rooting for him to struggle mightily.
At least we will get some top names here for workouts. Both Tatum and Isaac should be available at 5 so it will be fun to watch how they compare. At 5 Fox is my guy, but like many believe he may go earlier.
Frank N should be around at 10, unless hes Phils guy, but if not I would be ecstatic with one of those SF's and Frank.
Frank N should be around at 10, unless hes Phils guy, but if not I would be ecstatic with one of those SF's and Frank.
This isn't the NFL. It shouldn't take a ridiculous Kings ransom (no pun intended) to move up a few spots, especially since there isn't a clear cut LeBron James, Tim Duncan or Anthony Davis type #1 overall talent in this draft.
There's really no reason why #5 and a good player shouldn't get it done. If it won't, they're being overly greedy and you stay put. It just wouldn't be worth it.
I'd do 5 and 10 or 5 and a player to make sure I got the kid I wanted, but no more than that.
There's really no reason why #5 and a good player shouldn't get it done. If it won't, they're being overly greedy and you stay put. It just wouldn't be worth it.
I'd do 5 and 10 or 5 and a player to make sure I got the kid I wanted, but no more than that.
I would assume that Fultz and Ball are gone leaving Jackson, Fox, and Tatum as the most likely next 3 picks. I prefer Fox or Jackson, but Tatum is a really nice consolation prize. He can score in a lot of ways, yet is a good and willing passer. I think he has go-scorer capabilities.
Frank N. would be nice at 10 but I'm not sure he lasts that long. I wouldn't be surprised to see Vlade use the 10 to trade up or to trade for a veteran.
Frank N. would be nice at 10 but I'm not sure he lasts that long. I wouldn't be surprised to see Vlade use the 10 to trade up or to trade for a veteran.
Oh it could happen. The two things that would have to happen is Monk and another player (Markkanen? Collins?) going top 9 and maybe more importantly, Minnesota passing on Isaac.
Could I see this happening? Possibly. But I really think Thibs would take Isaac over Markkanen. But if for some reason he thought that Markkanen's ability to stretch the floor would really open things up for Wiggins & KAT then it could happen.
Isaac can be a very good defender and a decent shooter but I don't think he'll ever be a shooter of Markkanen's caliber. Lauri is one dimensional to me but he's also the best big man shooter I've ever seen on the college level.
- PHI - Fultz
- LAL - Ball
- ORL* - Jackson
- PHX - Tatum
- SAC - Fox
- PHI* - Monk
- MIN - Markkanen
- NYK - Ntilikina
- DAL - Smith Jr
- SAC - Isaac
Could I see this happening? Possibly. But I really think Thibs would take Isaac over Markkanen. But if for some reason he thought that Markkanen's ability to stretch the floor would really open things up for Wiggins & KAT then it could happen.
Isaac can be a very good defender and a decent shooter but I don't think he'll ever be a shooter of Markkanen's caliber. Lauri is one dimensional to me but he's also the best big man shooter I've ever seen on the college level.
I think if we draft Fox at 5, there is a high liklihood we trade #10 for a lower draft pick and a young player and/or additional picks.
Reason being that Issac is most likely off the board and the BPA at 10 will likely be another point guard.
I can see the Kings trading the #10 for a lower pick (from 12 to 16) and additional assets (i.e. Future first round pick (2019) and/or young player with upside.)
Reason being that Issac is most likely off the board and the BPA at 10 will likely be another point guard.
I can see the Kings trading the #10 for a lower pick (from 12 to 16) and additional assets (i.e. Future first round pick (2019) and/or young player with upside.)
There's just no way I want Ball on the Kings. We took a chance on an uber-talented kid with baggage before and I personally am just not ready to go through all the drama again...and I think we can all agree there WOULD be drama. Ball belongs in LA where drama is a way of life. I wish him well, but I truly hope the only time he steps foot in G1C is to play against the Kings twice a year.
I didn't even want to entertain the idea that we might have a top 5 pick unless it actually happened. Now that it has, our whole draft strategy changes. We can actually be more proactive about working some top players out and going after the guy we like the best.
Fultz/Ball should be in the bag to Boston/LA. Other teams have different needs but Boston is taking the consensus #1 and the Lakers, with Magic running the show, basically have to go with Ball don't they? He's the flashy Showtime run and gun PG they want and he's already been telling everyone that his dream is to play for the Lakers. I could see a bold experienced GM taking Fox there anyway but a first-time GM in his first draft? It's going to be Ball.
Everyone else is in play from 3 down. And one thing this lotto changed for us is that trading up from 5 becomes a lot more interesting than trading up from 8 would have been. I don't think we're getting 1 or 2 but the #3 pick might be in play if the Sixers fixate on Monk like everyone expects them to. Phoenix isn't taking Monk with Devin Booker there so they can get him at 5 if that's who they want. Would it take our #10 pick to move up to 3? Would it be worth it? Would we target Fox there or Jackson? All interesting questions. My preference would be to stay at 5 unless we get a strong indication that both Fox and Jackson will be gone by then.
The next question I have is if Phoenix might take DeAaron Fox at #4. They were the only team that fell 2 spots in the lottery. Josh Jackson looks like a great fit for them but they're far from set at PG. Bledsoe is expensive and can't stay on the floor. Brandon Knight could not have worked out worse for them. Maybe they end up trading Bledsoe and go after Fox to form an all Kentucky backcourt.
Philly is in a weird position if they keep that pick. They need guards who can shoot. Fox is the best guard on the board but he's not a shooter. Monk and Ntilikina are strong possibilities but both seem like reaches at #3. Certainly I wouldn't rule them out but what else might they do? I can't see them taking Jackson or Tatum. Maybe somebody trades up to get one of them but if it's Philly picking and they can't find a trade partner I think they take a long look at Dennis Smith. He's got the same star potential as Fox (albeit with more risk attached) but might fit better with Embiid and Simmons.
So here's my prediction right now (pre workouts):
1. Boston takes M. Fultz
2. LA takes L. Ball
3. Philly takes D. Smith Jr.
4. Phoenix takes D. Fox or J. Jackson
5. Sacramento takes whoever Phoenix doesn't
These next two picks seem easy to me:
6. Orlando takes J. Tatum
7. Minnesota takes J. Isaac
Perfect fits for both those teams. Phil on the clock at this point can go with Ntilikina or Monk as PGs who can space the floor. Monk probably won't work at PG on most teams but with Hornacek doubling down on the triangle next year and Melo probably traded I think Monk actually fits pretty well there. He also just seems like a perfect guy to play in New York -- he's got that Rucker Park ready one on one game. Instant offense for a team in need of an identity running an offense that has famously worked before for scoring wings.
8. New York takes M. Monk
9. Dallas takes ?
I have no idea what Dallas does here. Ntilikina is the last PG standing and would be a good fit for them. There's also Markkanen and the inevitable next-Dirk comparisons. Zach Collins is another big guy who can shoot and he's been gaining ground on all the mocks lately which could reflect increased interest in him among front offices. I had connected Ntilikina to them earlier but now I'm not so sure. I can see Cuban jumping on Dennis Smith if he's still on the board but I can also see him going for a big and looking for a PG in free agency (somebody like Jrue Holiday for instance).
I'm going to leave this one blank and say that Ntilikina would be ideal for us at 10 if we pick Jackson or Fox at #5. Either way we're getting two of the best defenders in the draft and a young guy who can hopefully step in and be our PG of the future. Ntilikina's off the ball skills could also help him find a role off the bench as a combo guard or even next to Fox in a 2 PG attack if he ends up being good enough to push Hield and Bogdanovic to the bench. I'd have no reservations taking Ntilikina at 10 even if we already get Fox at #5.
And lastly, if Ntilikina is gone at #10 that's when I start working out trade down scenarios involving Detroit (for my Stanley Johnson crush) or Portland (for 2 of their 3 first round picks).
Fultz/Ball should be in the bag to Boston/LA. Other teams have different needs but Boston is taking the consensus #1 and the Lakers, with Magic running the show, basically have to go with Ball don't they? He's the flashy Showtime run and gun PG they want and he's already been telling everyone that his dream is to play for the Lakers. I could see a bold experienced GM taking Fox there anyway but a first-time GM in his first draft? It's going to be Ball.
Everyone else is in play from 3 down. And one thing this lotto changed for us is that trading up from 5 becomes a lot more interesting than trading up from 8 would have been. I don't think we're getting 1 or 2 but the #3 pick might be in play if the Sixers fixate on Monk like everyone expects them to. Phoenix isn't taking Monk with Devin Booker there so they can get him at 5 if that's who they want. Would it take our #10 pick to move up to 3? Would it be worth it? Would we target Fox there or Jackson? All interesting questions. My preference would be to stay at 5 unless we get a strong indication that both Fox and Jackson will be gone by then.
The next question I have is if Phoenix might take DeAaron Fox at #4. They were the only team that fell 2 spots in the lottery. Josh Jackson looks like a great fit for them but they're far from set at PG. Bledsoe is expensive and can't stay on the floor. Brandon Knight could not have worked out worse for them. Maybe they end up trading Bledsoe and go after Fox to form an all Kentucky backcourt.
Philly is in a weird position if they keep that pick. They need guards who can shoot. Fox is the best guard on the board but he's not a shooter. Monk and Ntilikina are strong possibilities but both seem like reaches at #3. Certainly I wouldn't rule them out but what else might they do? I can't see them taking Jackson or Tatum. Maybe somebody trades up to get one of them but if it's Philly picking and they can't find a trade partner I think they take a long look at Dennis Smith. He's got the same star potential as Fox (albeit with more risk attached) but might fit better with Embiid and Simmons.
So here's my prediction right now (pre workouts):
1. Boston takes M. Fultz
2. LA takes L. Ball
3. Philly takes D. Smith Jr.
4. Phoenix takes D. Fox or J. Jackson
5. Sacramento takes whoever Phoenix doesn't
These next two picks seem easy to me:
6. Orlando takes J. Tatum
7. Minnesota takes J. Isaac
Perfect fits for both those teams. Phil on the clock at this point can go with Ntilikina or Monk as PGs who can space the floor. Monk probably won't work at PG on most teams but with Hornacek doubling down on the triangle next year and Melo probably traded I think Monk actually fits pretty well there. He also just seems like a perfect guy to play in New York -- he's got that Rucker Park ready one on one game. Instant offense for a team in need of an identity running an offense that has famously worked before for scoring wings.
8. New York takes M. Monk
9. Dallas takes ?
I have no idea what Dallas does here. Ntilikina is the last PG standing and would be a good fit for them. There's also Markkanen and the inevitable next-Dirk comparisons. Zach Collins is another big guy who can shoot and he's been gaining ground on all the mocks lately which could reflect increased interest in him among front offices. I had connected Ntilikina to them earlier but now I'm not so sure. I can see Cuban jumping on Dennis Smith if he's still on the board but I can also see him going for a big and looking for a PG in free agency (somebody like Jrue Holiday for instance).
I'm going to leave this one blank and say that Ntilikina would be ideal for us at 10 if we pick Jackson or Fox at #5. Either way we're getting two of the best defenders in the draft and a young guy who can hopefully step in and be our PG of the future. Ntilikina's off the ball skills could also help him find a role off the bench as a combo guard or even next to Fox in a 2 PG attack if he ends up being good enough to push Hield and Bogdanovic to the bench. I'd have no reservations taking Ntilikina at 10 even if we already get Fox at #5.
And lastly, if Ntilikina is gone at #10 that's when I start working out trade down scenarios involving Detroit (for my Stanley Johnson crush) or Portland (for 2 of their 3 first round picks).
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I can envision most of the top players in this draft becoming stars. They all won't of course but I can see a way that almost any of them would. The guys I don't see star potential from are Isaac, Markkanen, Ntilikina and Collins. Anunoby too if we want to call him a top prospect.
I love Isaac but I think he's a high end role player. A Rashard Lewis or Marvin Williams type player who adds shotblocking. He reminds me a bit of Kirilenko but AK47 was a bit more fluid, a bit more perimeter oriented and a much better passer. But both of them seem content to fill a role and a stat sheet rather than needing to be an offensive focal point.
Markkanen is an ideal stretch four but outside of Nowitzki I can't think of a similar player who became a star. And I don't see Dirk's fluidity or assertiveness when watching Markkanen. Porzingis is a bad comp - Markkanen lacks his length and shotblocking. Ryan Anderson was a better rebounder and interior player in college. Maybe a bigger, slower Peja is his top end comparison?
Ntilikina also seems a bit passive. More importantly he doesn't show the handle or athleticism to get to the rim. If that doesn't change his ceiling is as a utility, 3&D PG of sorts.
I like Collins and he does a lot well but he doesn't do anything (to my eyes) well enough to project him as a star. Anunoby gets some Artest comps and I understand that but he seems likely to be more of a Mbah a Moute or Al-Farouq Aminu type player.
For Monk I think his shot to be a star depends on being able to be a lead guard. Can he be a Lillard or Curry-lite (more athletic but only a very good shooter instead of maybe the all-time greatest)? If he can't (and doesn't go to a situation like Philly where he's not asked to be a playmaker) then his ceiling maybe as a top level sixth man. A Lou Williams or Jamal Crawford type.
Fultz could be a Harden meets Wade type player. Ball could be Jason Kidd with much worse defense but much better shooting. Jackson could be somewhere between Iguodala and Pippen but with less length. Tatum could be similar to Paul Pierce. Smith Jr could be somewhere between Marbury and Kyrie. Or maybe a more effective Steve Francis. Fox needs to add muscle/strength and a consistent outside shot but if he does he could be a fantastic two way PG.
And there are some guys further down (Patton, Ferguson, Giles, Evans even maybe Diallo and others I'm forgetting) who have the game and potential to possibly be stars.
But as much as I love the talent at the top of this draft, some of these guys that go top 10 won't be great. 2 or 3 will very likely be busts. I'm glad the Kings moved up but now the real work begins.
I love Isaac but I think he's a high end role player. A Rashard Lewis or Marvin Williams type player who adds shotblocking. He reminds me a bit of Kirilenko but AK47 was a bit more fluid, a bit more perimeter oriented and a much better passer. But both of them seem content to fill a role and a stat sheet rather than needing to be an offensive focal point.
Markkanen is an ideal stretch four but outside of Nowitzki I can't think of a similar player who became a star. And I don't see Dirk's fluidity or assertiveness when watching Markkanen. Porzingis is a bad comp - Markkanen lacks his length and shotblocking. Ryan Anderson was a better rebounder and interior player in college. Maybe a bigger, slower Peja is his top end comparison?
Ntilikina also seems a bit passive. More importantly he doesn't show the handle or athleticism to get to the rim. If that doesn't change his ceiling is as a utility, 3&D PG of sorts.
I like Collins and he does a lot well but he doesn't do anything (to my eyes) well enough to project him as a star. Anunoby gets some Artest comps and I understand that but he seems likely to be more of a Mbah a Moute or Al-Farouq Aminu type player.
For Monk I think his shot to be a star depends on being able to be a lead guard. Can he be a Lillard or Curry-lite (more athletic but only a very good shooter instead of maybe the all-time greatest)? If he can't (and doesn't go to a situation like Philly where he's not asked to be a playmaker) then his ceiling maybe as a top level sixth man. A Lou Williams or Jamal Crawford type.
Fultz could be a Harden meets Wade type player. Ball could be Jason Kidd with much worse defense but much better shooting. Jackson could be somewhere between Iguodala and Pippen but with less length. Tatum could be similar to Paul Pierce. Smith Jr could be somewhere between Marbury and Kyrie. Or maybe a more effective Steve Francis. Fox needs to add muscle/strength and a consistent outside shot but if he does he could be a fantastic two way PG.
And there are some guys further down (Patton, Ferguson, Giles, Evans even maybe Diallo and others I'm forgetting) who have the game and potential to possibly be stars.
But as much as I love the talent at the top of this draft, some of these guys that go top 10 won't be great. 2 or 3 will very likely be busts. I'm glad the Kings moved up but now the real work begins.
I would much rather keep 5 and 10 over trading them and a player to get the #1 pick. We need stars on this team. Having the 5th and 10th gives us a much better chance at landing a star or two. I don't feel like this team has enough talent yet to give up picks and a young player, just to put all our future on Fultz.
Basically, I think it would help us out more to have Fox/Isaac, Jackson/Frank, or another combination of top draftees over trading a young player and our picks to get Fultz.
Basically, I think it would help us out more to have Fox/Isaac, Jackson/Frank, or another combination of top draftees over trading a young player and our picks to get Fultz.
Lonzo Ball doesn't have baggage.
By all accounts he's been a model teammate who always plays hard and whose best quality is his ability to make his teammates better.
What Lonzo Ball has is a loudmouth father who loves making ridiculous statements to get attention and who lives vicariously through his sons after failing to realize his own dreams of being a star athlete.
Does anybody remember Papagiannis' father starting a Twitter flamefest over his belief that his son was a far better player than Dragan Bender? Not quite the same magnitude as Lavar Ball claiming he could beat Michael Jordan or that his son is already better than Steph Curry but along the same lines.
Unless Lavar Ball would have some way of sabotaging things behind the scenes and/or plotting to get his son moved to a bigger market then he's essentially annoying but harmless. Even he has to know that even IF all three of his boys make it to the NBA they aren't all going to stay in L.A.
By all accounts he's been a model teammate who always plays hard and whose best quality is his ability to make his teammates better.
What Lonzo Ball has is a loudmouth father who loves making ridiculous statements to get attention and who lives vicariously through his sons after failing to realize his own dreams of being a star athlete.
Does anybody remember Papagiannis' father starting a Twitter flamefest over his belief that his son was a far better player than Dragan Bender? Not quite the same magnitude as Lavar Ball claiming he could beat Michael Jordan or that his son is already better than Steph Curry but along the same lines.
Unless Lavar Ball would have some way of sabotaging things behind the scenes and/or plotting to get his son moved to a bigger market then he's essentially annoying but harmless. Even he has to know that even IF all three of his boys make it to the NBA they aren't all going to stay in L.A.