Is next season going to be a tank year?
- Thread starter VF21
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Next year should be about developing the kids. At least a 90% chance they're going to struggle.
So they should "tank" in the sense of not adding any more players that get in the way of that. IE, every spot on the roster can easily upgraded in the short term, but there is no point in doing so.
Assuming they draft a PG and SF, the rotation has room for one veteran PG. I think they should trade Koufos for anything they can get.
So they should "tank" in the sense of not adding any more players that get in the way of that. IE, every spot on the roster can easily upgraded in the short term, but there is no point in doing so.
Assuming they draft a PG and SF, the rotation has room for one veteran PG. I think they should trade Koufos for anything they can get.
I sure like to hope so. Under no circumstances should Rudy be on this roster come next season. I'm fine with the team re-signing one of the PGs if they can't draft one. Besides, too much youth will be on the roster and that much youth doesn't win many games so we won't have to worry about too many Ws, even if Joerger works magic with little assets.
I would like to see a bunch of young kids playing with vets filling in spots of need and maybe one vet on the floor with each unit for a steady hand.
I want the team to go out and fight every night and if they can't win they can't win. But I don't want to see a disgrace out there and I hope we don't do anything that could jeopardize our coach's job.
I want the team to go out and fight every night and if they can't win they can't win. But I don't want to see a disgrace out there and I hope we don't do anything that could jeopardize our coach's job.
Here's why there should be no discussion of tanking next year...
Starters:
Collison or Lawson (a starter for 1-2 years, then a back-up)
Hield (long-term starter)
Temple (a starter until Richardson or the Rookie F can step up)
Labissiere* / Cauley-Stein* / Papagiannis*
* these guys share the minutes at the 4 & 5
Bench:
Gay (if he opts in & we can't trade him, try to make him our 6th man at the 3 & stretch-4 until he has some trade value or proves his value to us)
Koufos (not many min behind the youngsters, but always ready when needed & good mentor)
Richardson (back up min at 2 & 3 until he's ready to start at the 3)
Rookie PG (plays back-up role in his 1st year & possibly 2nd year)
Rookie F
Bogdanovic (if he signs, find a role for him to see if he can contribute)
One can only guess what this collection of talent can do next year. Maybe match this year's win total, or maybe improve to 40 wins. Somewhere in that range will be my expectations.
Starters:
Collison or Lawson (a starter for 1-2 years, then a back-up)
Hield (long-term starter)
Temple (a starter until Richardson or the Rookie F can step up)
Labissiere* / Cauley-Stein* / Papagiannis*
* these guys share the minutes at the 4 & 5
Bench:
Gay (if he opts in & we can't trade him, try to make him our 6th man at the 3 & stretch-4 until he has some trade value or proves his value to us)
Koufos (not many min behind the youngsters, but always ready when needed & good mentor)
Richardson (back up min at 2 & 3 until he's ready to start at the 3)
Rookie PG (plays back-up role in his 1st year & possibly 2nd year)
Rookie F
Bogdanovic (if he signs, find a role for him to see if he can contribute)
One can only guess what this collection of talent can do next year. Maybe match this year's win total, or maybe improve to 40 wins. Somewhere in that range will be my expectations.
What a weird attitude to have before you even know what pick the Kings are going to end up with this year. This is basically the same thing as admitting the Kings screwed up the last draft, and have already preemptively screwed up the next three drafts.
You're talking about "tanking out" until 2021-22: that's five seasons away. If you want the Kings to continue to tank for the next four years, then you're admitting that you don't think that any of WCS, Buddy, Skal, Malachi or Papa will play any part of the Kings being a winning team in the future. Trying to tank for four years straight is not going to work, unless those guys are all busts: if they have any potential at all, Joerger's going to get it out of them, and even if that potential isn't good enough to get into the playoffs, it's going to be too good to pull off a four-year tank.
They don't have that long to wait, anyway: they can't wait until four years from now, because they're going to have to make decisions on Buddy, Skal, Malachi and Papa three years from now, and WCS in two years. And I hate to be the bearer of "bad news" for the pro-tank fans, but if those five guys plus whoever the Kings draft over the next two years have any talent at all, they're not going to be a Bottom Three team by 2021-2022, anyway, whether they make the playoffs or not, unless TPTB go Full Hinkie, and start trading off anybody who shows even the slightest signs of being any good, for more picks.
You may just have to get used to a brand-new, younger, shinier, more "likable" treadmill.
You're talking about "tanking out" until 2021-22: that's five seasons away. If you want the Kings to continue to tank for the next four years, then you're admitting that you don't think that any of WCS, Buddy, Skal, Malachi or Papa will play any part of the Kings being a winning team in the future. Trying to tank for four years straight is not going to work, unless those guys are all busts: if they have any potential at all, Joerger's going to get it out of them, and even if that potential isn't good enough to get into the playoffs, it's going to be too good to pull off a four-year tank.
They don't have that long to wait, anyway: they can't wait until four years from now, because they're going to have to make decisions on Buddy, Skal, Malachi and Papa three years from now, and WCS in two years. And I hate to be the bearer of "bad news" for the pro-tank fans, but if those five guys plus whoever the Kings draft over the next two years have any talent at all, they're not going to be a Bottom Three team by 2021-2022, anyway, whether they make the playoffs or not, unless TPTB go Full Hinkie, and start trading off anybody who shows even the slightest signs of being any good, for more picks.
You may just have to get used to a brand-new, younger, shinier, more "likable" treadmill.
I already think the Kings have enough talent to to win more games next year than they did the last six seasons. We will be an up and coming team that will have youth and chemistry and will be fun to watch. If all goes well we will have some more new players to add to the mix. The management let the youth start and left them underhanded. But they almost won more games than they did with the GOAT king Demarcus Cousins had last year. We have a great coach too. Things will be better next season barring some strange change in direction between now and then. After the trade the the Kings went 1-8 but where much more fun to watch. After the 1-8 start they went 7 and 9 with wins against the grizzlies and clippers. Tanking should be removed the minds of Kings fans anyhow. There is a change in culture. These guys will fight to win every game!
I would just like that sense of desperation to grab an 8 seed just so Vivek can say he ended the playoff drought or for Vlade to say I told you so about the Cousins trade to be GONE. That should not be the mindset at all. Vlade should not be hell bent on making sure we are incrementally better in 2019. Its time for the tone at the top to be a long term approach. Ill take a 1-3 seed in 2023 over a 7-8 seed in 19-20 anyday.
Personally I do not want playoffs in 2019 if it means leveraging the future in terms of handing out big long contracts to over the hill players, sacrificing player development or trading future draft picks like we did with Philly. Screw clawing for an 8 seed, Ill pass on that unless we have at least two franchise player level prospects in place. We already learned that you can't do it with just one.
The team COULD come together and with a few pieces be ready in 2019 but in watching how long its took teams to get out of the dumps in the last decade or so I would refuse to plan things out as an organization counting on that to happen.
Moves should be made with the preface of contending 4-5 years from now NOT with the preface of contending in 2019. Things just do not turn that quickly often enough for me to feel comfortable in making moves going all in for 2019. If we contend in 19 somehow without sacrificing the future then of course i'm all in! But theres little chance of that happening.
In the meantime Ill enjoy watching the young guys grow, Ill enjoy analyzing Joergers work and enjoy basketball. Its not about being party poopers or having a doom and gloom attitude its about working the system thats been put in place to build a contender.
The problem with all of this is Vivek is not a patient man, he wants playoffs and wants them yesterday. Casual fans are not very patient either, they are not going to buy Viveks $100 per plate cuisine food at G1C to watch a losing team. Can't really count on Vlade to be patient either since his public proclamation. I hope some wise and patient knowledgeable minds get in Vivek's ear and explain the situation. Not yes men trying to hang onto their basketball paycheck for another year.
Personally I do not want playoffs in 2019 if it means leveraging the future in terms of handing out big long contracts to over the hill players, sacrificing player development or trading future draft picks like we did with Philly. Screw clawing for an 8 seed, Ill pass on that unless we have at least two franchise player level prospects in place. We already learned that you can't do it with just one.
The team COULD come together and with a few pieces be ready in 2019 but in watching how long its took teams to get out of the dumps in the last decade or so I would refuse to plan things out as an organization counting on that to happen.
Moves should be made with the preface of contending 4-5 years from now NOT with the preface of contending in 2019. Things just do not turn that quickly often enough for me to feel comfortable in making moves going all in for 2019. If we contend in 19 somehow without sacrificing the future then of course i'm all in! But theres little chance of that happening.
In the meantime Ill enjoy watching the young guys grow, Ill enjoy analyzing Joergers work and enjoy basketball. Its not about being party poopers or having a doom and gloom attitude its about working the system thats been put in place to build a contender.
The problem with all of this is Vivek is not a patient man, he wants playoffs and wants them yesterday. Casual fans are not very patient either, they are not going to buy Viveks $100 per plate cuisine food at G1C to watch a losing team. Can't really count on Vlade to be patient either since his public proclamation. I hope some wise and patient knowledgeable minds get in Vivek's ear and explain the situation. Not yes men trying to hang onto their basketball paycheck for another year.
If the Kings want to remain a bad team, then by all means tank. If they want to improve, then they play to win. Haven't we learned by now that giving a young player minutes just because they're young doesn't always yield good things? Make them earn their minutes and bring them along accordingly.
Winning, and fighting to win is a mentality that once ingrained helps teams to still win games when they shouldn't. However, keep a team losing and they often find ways to lose games they shouldn't. This is one of the reasons why it is always hard for non-playoff teams to get out of the rut. You would think that King's fans would know this better than most.
Winning, and fighting to win is a mentality that once ingrained helps teams to still win games when they shouldn't. However, keep a team losing and they often find ways to lose games they shouldn't. This is one of the reasons why it is always hard for non-playoff teams to get out of the rut. You would think that King's fans would know this better than most.
I don't think any team should start the season with the idea of tanking. Just a ridiculous idea, unless your the 76'ers of course. I suppose there's a point in the season when you know what you have, and where your going, and maybe at that point, you decide its better to lose than to win. Personally, I hope the work tank isn't even brought up next season. Probably not realistic, but one can hope.
We more than likely will screw up a draft or two, every team does, what the heck makes the KINGS(see our history) any different? Planning with the presumption that not all drafted players will workout is far more reasonable than planning based on Grant's analysis of Skal and Buddy. Look we had some nice moments but I'm still skeptical on all of these guys, I see guys around the league show great flashes just like our guys did only to not ever be able to do consistently against high caliber opponents.
Im not admitting that any of Willie, Buddy, Skal or Malachi will not play ANY role in the future but I'm not building a team around any of them, IMO their ceiling is pieces, how many 20 something picks become franchise level guys? Buddy is the only Lotto pick in that group and in this draft and many others he may have been around 15-20 like the other guys. It happens yes I know but is very very rare, you NEED at least one 1-5 lotto pick to contend at a high level. Every single contender has had at least one. We need those two franchise level guys and its unreasonable to plan around and believe that we have one of those guys in this current group.
I love all of the positive attributes of the kids but as mentioned around on the board in the past, Sacramento tends to build these guys up more than the might ever become (with lead cheerleader Grant Napear) and then blame the player for something that was never a realistic expectation in the first place. Im far more cautious with my buying into what we have than some may be around here.
Yeah Im not even sold on the "too good to tank" train, if they are then that is great but if they are not do not make rash decisions based on hope. When those extension decisions come up I hope the evaluations are based on reality and not based on what they may become after the 4 year point.
What makes our brass so much better than the sixers or suns brass that makes us feel like our tank can be shorter than anyone elses? certainly not our past transaction and draft history. IMO its this line of terrible thinking that we can fast track things that has gotten us into this perpetual 30 win season mess.
What the Sixers did was not popular but i believe next year and for the next decade it will show that what they did worked. Theres a reason why there is a handful of bottom teams following suit!
Oh and saying that if we get top picks in this and next years draft will be too good to tank? Don't ever underestimate the kings ability to disappoint.
Im not admitting that any of Willie, Buddy, Skal or Malachi will not play ANY role in the future but I'm not building a team around any of them, IMO their ceiling is pieces, how many 20 something picks become franchise level guys? Buddy is the only Lotto pick in that group and in this draft and many others he may have been around 15-20 like the other guys. It happens yes I know but is very very rare, you NEED at least one 1-5 lotto pick to contend at a high level. Every single contender has had at least one. We need those two franchise level guys and its unreasonable to plan around and believe that we have one of those guys in this current group.
I love all of the positive attributes of the kids but as mentioned around on the board in the past, Sacramento tends to build these guys up more than the might ever become (with lead cheerleader Grant Napear) and then blame the player for something that was never a realistic expectation in the first place. Im far more cautious with my buying into what we have than some may be around here.
Yeah Im not even sold on the "too good to tank" train, if they are then that is great but if they are not do not make rash decisions based on hope. When those extension decisions come up I hope the evaluations are based on reality and not based on what they may become after the 4 year point.
What makes our brass so much better than the sixers or suns brass that makes us feel like our tank can be shorter than anyone elses? certainly not our past transaction and draft history. IMO its this line of terrible thinking that we can fast track things that has gotten us into this perpetual 30 win season mess.
What the Sixers did was not popular but i believe next year and for the next decade it will show that what they did worked. Theres a reason why there is a handful of bottom teams following suit!
Oh and saying that if we get top picks in this and next years draft will be too good to tank? Don't ever underestimate the kings ability to disappoint.
If there is tanking that I can almost handle it would be what we saw from the post-Cousins Kings. The players were playing to win and playing together. Obviously there was a focus on the young guys, but it looked to me like the young guys had actually earned that time. We weren't out there playing D-leaguers for long stretches like you might say for the Mavs. I also hate the idea that you tank next year because the team is young and we have our own pick. The 6ers have an unprotected pick in 2019 and with the assets we have this offseason the team could be really talented (albeit really young and new to each other) so starting next year I hope we start to see the Kings trending up.
Broadly agree. Per several folks, 2016 was one of the more underwhelming drafts in recent years. While the full story of this draft is yet to be told, for us to believe that we will have 4 good pieces from one draft, and that too, which has not been rated very highly is to place optimism over history. They all might become decent pieces, and one or two, maybe even more so. However, it's too early, and chances of them being just complimentary pieces is equally high.
And yes, contending teams have at least two perennial all stars, (preferably three), or several excellent pieces surrounding them. With the 8th & 10th pick, we may get one. Two is unlikely. We might have a good chance in 2018 though. I expect us to be bad this year, and I think that's a good thing.
That said, if we get a franchise level talent in 2018, couple of good pieces this year, and some good progress from our current crop of kids, we can be very good with these pieces. Sure, it will take time for them to play together, and grow. Lots of ifs and buts, mostly with how we draft, if we are able to get the right vets, are we able to use some vets/space to get some additional assets, how the kids shape up, etc. But, a top level talent in 2018, a potential all star level talent this year, and good progress by one or more of the current kids can be a very solid core. This is the kind of group, that can attract the right vets.
And yes, contending teams have at least two perennial all stars, (preferably three), or several excellent pieces surrounding them. With the 8th & 10th pick, we may get one. Two is unlikely. We might have a good chance in 2018 though. I expect us to be bad this year, and I think that's a good thing.
That said, if we get a franchise level talent in 2018, couple of good pieces this year, and some good progress from our current crop of kids, we can be very good with these pieces. Sure, it will take time for them to play together, and grow. Lots of ifs and buts, mostly with how we draft, if we are able to get the right vets, are we able to use some vets/space to get some additional assets, how the kids shape up, etc. But, a top level talent in 2018, a potential all star level talent this year, and good progress by one or more of the current kids can be a very solid core. This is the kind of group, that can attract the right vets.
The parity of last year's draft was it's strength and weakness. I know many others (myself included) commented how after the first 6-8 picks the talent level was about the same well into the 2nd round. Meaning teams had about as much chance of getting a quality player with the 40th pick as with the 10th. It was a real test of scouting depts, not only for talent but for fit as well.
I'm not sure whether this is you making a strawman argument, or whether you and I are just not using the word "tank" the same way. When you say that you're not sold on the team being too good to tank, you seem to be arguing as if you think that what I'm saying is that I think these kids will be competing for the 8th seed, when all I'm actually saying by "too good to tank" is that I think that they'll be too good to be a Bottom 3-4 team in the league.
Joerger's a good coach, who does a pretty good job developing players. Even if the kids the Kings have on the roster right now have already capped out on their potential, that's likely going to be a 28-win team, which is going to be too good for a Bottom 3 record. Those guys plus at least three more lottery picks are probably going to be at worst a 28-32 win squad, just by virtue of playing hard every night. If you don't think that the Kings will be even that good, then you are in fact admitting that you don't think that any of the kids will play any role in the Kings being a winning team in the future, despite your previous claims.
You keep praising Philly, but let's not pretend that the Sixers have made even a token effort to develop any talent: they traded guys for picks, and then they drafted those guys, and if those guys had anything less than superstar potential, they traded them for more picks. They aren't trying to develop anybody: they don't actually know what they did or didn't have.
If the Kings' plans involves player development on any level, then they're not going to be a 20-23 win team four years in a row (which is what they would need to be in order to "tank it out").
Joerger's a good coach, who does a pretty good job developing players. Even if the kids the Kings have on the roster right now have already capped out on their potential, that's likely going to be a 28-win team, which is going to be too good for a Bottom 3 record. Those guys plus at least three more lottery picks are probably going to be at worst a 28-32 win squad, just by virtue of playing hard every night. If you don't think that the Kings will be even that good, then you are in fact admitting that you don't think that any of the kids will play any role in the Kings being a winning team in the future, despite your previous claims.
You keep praising Philly, but let's not pretend that the Sixers have made even a token effort to develop any talent: they traded guys for picks, and then they drafted those guys, and if those guys had anything less than superstar potential, they traded them for more picks. They aren't trying to develop anybody: they don't actually know what they did or didn't have.
If the Kings' plans involves player development on any level, then they're not going to be a 20-23 win team four years in a row (which is what they would need to be in order to "tank it out").
When I talk of perennial all-stars, I talk of guys who make 4-5, or more, all star teams. Of course a lot of it depends on how good the team is, how much chance you get, when you make the jump, injuries, etc. E.g., in our own case when we were good, we had a 5 time all star in Chris, and a 3 time all star in Peja. They could have potentially been more successful, but for injuries, etc. They were also surrounded by extremely strong group of vets, and a bench who could have taken many starting 5s in the league.
However, I digress. My point is that most drafts give 1-2 players who are at that level. Some may be great, and give several such players (2003 draft), or one which can be a relative dud (2001, though Gasol and Parker from that draft went on to have excellent careers, including being key pieces on championship teams). Again, it's too early to rate the 2016 draft, but early returns don't point to a plethora of this kind of talent.
Whether one of our four guys will be at this level in some years, no one knows. That's a really elite level though, and I won't bet on it.
However, I digress. My point is that most drafts give 1-2 players who are at that level. Some may be great, and give several such players (2003 draft), or one which can be a relative dud (2001, though Gasol and Parker from that draft went on to have excellent careers, including being key pieces on championship teams). Again, it's too early to rate the 2016 draft, but early returns don't point to a plethora of this kind of talent.
Whether one of our four guys will be at this level in some years, no one knows. That's a really elite level though, and I won't bet on it.