Who do we draft?
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I went back and rewatched the Duke/Virgina game from last month. And Jayson Tatum really looked good. I'm not sure who I'd compare him to and I still worry about a midrange focused wing succeeding in today's NBA but I wouldn't mind the Kings giving him a shot at being the SF of the future. So skilled and so smooth.
I worry because the comps that spring to mind (Rudy Gay, Carmelo, etc) play a losing style of basketball but I'm coming around on Tatum.
This result (courtesy of Tankathon) would make me really happy:
But Tatum or Isaac and Ntilikina would be just fine with me too.
I worry because the comps that spring to mind (Rudy Gay, Carmelo, etc) play a losing style of basketball but I'm coming around on Tatum.
This result (courtesy of Tankathon) would make me really happy:
But Tatum or Isaac and Ntilikina would be just fine with me too.
All I can say is, if Markkanen isn't in the top 12, then this is the best draft of my lifetime. No freaking way is he not a top 10 player. I would be jumping so high I'd hurt myself on draft day if we could get that guy!
Buddy has proven something and will be good. He's one of the top things this franchise has going for it
We have other prospects at the position
If a prospect can't play another position I don't see it
The team has enough holes as is to address non holes
That's why I'm questionable on Markannen, as I see Skal as one of our two best bets heading forward
We have other prospects at the position
If a prospect can't play another position I don't see it
The team has enough holes as is to address non holes
That's why I'm questionable on Markannen, as I see Skal as one of our two best bets heading forward
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Tankathon is fun to play around with but like any site you have to take their player rankings with a grain of salt. They have Markkanen going either 11th or 12th depending on how the lottery shakes out but they also have De'Aaron Fox going 15th while DraftExpress has him slotted 5th. FWIW, DX has Markkanen going 7th.
I think DX does a really fine job. But I also think they only really get to be "dead on" just before the draft. Their scouting is top notch for sure but I think the biggest reason that their final mock matches the actual draft so well is because they get a fair amount of inside info. That's a credit to the inroads they've made with teams, prospects and agents.
Totally agree. The rankings are still pretty fluid and we'll see them get more accurate the closer to the draft it gets, but DXs scouting and inroads to the general perceptions of the scouting community to me seem to be vastly ahead of the other mock draft sites.
I think the 8 or 10 guys they have at the top will remain in that zone and compete for rankings in that range.(maybe some fluctuation on Frank N. Since there's limited info on him).
I think the 8 or 10 guys they have at the top will remain in that zone and compete for rankings in that range.(maybe some fluctuation on Frank N. Since there's limited info on him).
I think we're all in agreement that if we hold in the "two picks within 6-10" range, we're going to get two nice potential starters with unique skillsets, albeit nothing that will turn the franchise around overnight (that, hopefully may come with our 2018 pick, should we smartly tank).
I'm trying to talk myself out of Dennis Smith Jr: he's got some bad PG/non-winning habits, doesn't have great physical tools (size/wingspan) and has already had an ACL issue. But man, I love what I see when I watch his highlights, and his stats are already very promising. Wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him @ 6 especially considering the PG market. I'm less crazy on Fox - he's struggled to put on weight, can't shoot (albeit his FT % is promising) and is an average passer. But he possesses some great defensive chops and a strong motor.
I'm a Wildcat alum, but I don't love Markannen in the top 10. He possesses one elite skill: shooting, and that's never a sure thing to translate to the NBA. He rebounds 7 per game because he is seven feet in the NCAA, and his assist, steal and block rates are abysmal for a seven footer. I love a big that can shoot, but my philosophy is that you don't want to waste a top 10 pick on a specialist. History isn't kind to those picks.
But you know what, at the end of the day, I'm happy to welcome any of these guys. I see these guys as compliments to whoever we draft in the top 5 next year (right Vlade, RIGHT?), and while none of them may be a star, each can potentially bring something to table, potentially as starters on a playoff team.
I'm trying to talk myself out of Dennis Smith Jr: he's got some bad PG/non-winning habits, doesn't have great physical tools (size/wingspan) and has already had an ACL issue. But man, I love what I see when I watch his highlights, and his stats are already very promising. Wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him @ 6 especially considering the PG market. I'm less crazy on Fox - he's struggled to put on weight, can't shoot (albeit his FT % is promising) and is an average passer. But he possesses some great defensive chops and a strong motor.
I'm a Wildcat alum, but I don't love Markannen in the top 10. He possesses one elite skill: shooting, and that's never a sure thing to translate to the NBA. He rebounds 7 per game because he is seven feet in the NCAA, and his assist, steal and block rates are abysmal for a seven footer. I love a big that can shoot, but my philosophy is that you don't want to waste a top 10 pick on a specialist. History isn't kind to those picks.
But you know what, at the end of the day, I'm happy to welcome any of these guys. I see these guys as compliments to whoever we draft in the top 5 next year (right Vlade, RIGHT?), and while none of them may be a star, each can potentially bring something to table, potentially as starters on a playoff team.
I don't know about it being the best draft in your lifetime, but it's definitely one of the best in a long long time. Of course, it's all speculation at this point, but for the most part, all the likely suspects have lived up to their press clippings. Anyway, here is my new revised list of my top ten. Bear in mind, this isn't how I think they'll be drafted, but it's my personal wish list of the order in which I would draft them. Which means I'm taking the needs of the Kings team into consideration.
1. Markelle Fultz
2. Lonzo Ball
3. Josh Jackson
4. Jonathan Isaac
5 Jayson Tatum
6. Frank Ntilikina
7. Dennis Smith
8. Malik Monk (Monk is just too talented to go any lower)
9. D'Aaron Fox
10. Lauri Markkanen
There are a few players just outside my top ten that intrigue me, and who might end up having better careers than some listed above them. I like Miles Bridges, Zach Collins and Justin Patton. All three have obvious flaws, but all appear to have large upsides. So you never know.
1. Markelle Fultz
2. Lonzo Ball
3. Josh Jackson
4. Jonathan Isaac
5 Jayson Tatum
6. Frank Ntilikina
7. Dennis Smith
8. Malik Monk (Monk is just too talented to go any lower)
9. D'Aaron Fox
10. Lauri Markkanen
There are a few players just outside my top ten that intrigue me, and who might end up having better careers than some listed above them. I like Miles Bridges, Zach Collins and Justin Patton. All three have obvious flaws, but all appear to have large upsides. So you never know.
Looking at who is signed for next year the roster looks like this:
C Koufos/Cauley-Stein/Papagiannis
PF Labissiere/Tolliver*
SF Nobody*
SG Temple/Hield/Richardson
PG Nobody
Technically Gay is signed for next year with the option to opt out, Afflalo is signed at $12.5 M but with only $1.5 M guaranteed and Tolliver has a team option for next year.
Using my crystal ball I think Afflalo gets waived and McLemore is allowed to sign elsewhere while Tolliver stays on.
And whether Rudy opts out or not really only affects caproom and the number of open roster spots. If Rudy stays I doubt he plays before mid to late January and I doubt he's the same player. I'd prefer to see him opt out but I'm not sure it matters a ton for next season and it definitely doesn't matter after that.
The nice thing about this draft is that it's strongest up top in the two areas the Kings are weakest - SF (Jackson, Tatum, Isaac, maybe Bridges) and PG (Fultz, Ball, Smith Jr, Fox, Ntilikina and maybe Monk he can make the transition) and that's 10 guys right there.
C Koufos/Cauley-Stein/Papagiannis
PF Labissiere/Tolliver*
SF Nobody*
SG Temple/Hield/Richardson
PG Nobody
Technically Gay is signed for next year with the option to opt out, Afflalo is signed at $12.5 M but with only $1.5 M guaranteed and Tolliver has a team option for next year.
Using my crystal ball I think Afflalo gets waived and McLemore is allowed to sign elsewhere while Tolliver stays on.
And whether Rudy opts out or not really only affects caproom and the number of open roster spots. If Rudy stays I doubt he plays before mid to late January and I doubt he's the same player. I'd prefer to see him opt out but I'm not sure it matters a ton for next season and it definitely doesn't matter after that.
The nice thing about this draft is that it's strongest up top in the two areas the Kings are weakest - SF (Jackson, Tatum, Isaac, maybe Bridges) and PG (Fultz, Ball, Smith Jr, Fox, Ntilikina and maybe Monk he can make the transition) and that's 10 guys right there.
Yeah, right before the draft they take a look at each team and it's needs. So when they combine their scouting with team needs, they're close to spot on. Of course there's always that loose canon out there that surprises everyone by making a huge reach, or, like the Kings last year who draft a total unknown as far as the general public was concerned.
I was amazed a few years ago when I accidentally ran into Jonathan Givony in the lobby of the hotel I was staying at for summer league. One of the things I asked him, was how many people he had on his staff. He said that just he and Mike Schmitz did all the work. He may have added people since then, but still, I think it's amazing that only the two of them are able to put that body of work together, and maintain it.
I was amazed a few years ago when I accidentally ran into Jonathan Givony in the lobby of the hotel I was staying at for summer league. One of the things I asked him, was how many people he had on his staff. He said that just he and Mike Schmitz did all the work. He may have added people since then, but still, I think it's amazing that only the two of them are able to put that body of work together, and maintain it.
Well, you missed one. You forgot Galloway, who has a player option. Of course the Kings could just waive him and eat the contract, but for the moment, he's still on the roster. If you add him, and assume that Gay doesn't opt out, that brings the taken roster spots to ten. Add in at least two draft picks and your at 12, maybe 13 if we really really like our 2nd round pick. In any event, that would leave anywhere from four, to two roster spots to be filled depending on the outcome of Gay, Galloway, and our 2nd round pick. With the salary cap projected to be at 103 mil, and if Gay opts in along with Galloway, we'll have approximately $46,481,634.00 in capspace. If Gay opts out, then it jumps up to $59,244,600.00.
Anyway you look at it, that's a chunk of change to spend, and I think we have to spend enough to get to the salary cap floor, which is 90% of the total available capspace. Around 93 mil. That means we would have to spend, if Gay opts out, a minimum of 49 mil on two, to four players. Which also means, that if we can't get a big name to come here, like Otto Porter for 25 mil a year, then we'll be overpaying for a couple of players just to get to the minimum. Which would probably mean signing a couple of players to one year contracts, or contracts similar to what Temple and Tolliver signed..
Who would have thought that having that much cap space could be a bit of a problem. Should be an interesting summer.
Anyway you look at it, that's a chunk of change to spend, and I think we have to spend enough to get to the salary cap floor, which is 90% of the total available capspace. Around 93 mil. That means we would have to spend, if Gay opts out, a minimum of 49 mil on two, to four players. Which also means, that if we can't get a big name to come here, like Otto Porter for 25 mil a year, then we'll be overpaying for a couple of players just to get to the minimum. Which would probably mean signing a couple of players to one year contracts, or contracts similar to what Temple and Tolliver signed..
Who would have thought that having that much cap space could be a bit of a problem. Should be an interesting summer.
My top 10 at this point:
1. Fultz
2. Ball
3. Jackson
4. Tatum
5. Smith Jr
6. Fox
7. Monk
8. Isaac
9. Markkanen
10. Ntilikina
I think Smith Jr may slide a little and I think he's becoming undervalued at this point. He has all the tools and athleticism to be an elite PG. I understand the skepticism to a degree but I still think he's a big time prospect. He reminds me a little of a more athletic CP who also doesn't have elite size/length, though likely not as good a passer. Whether he will ever have the leadership of a guy like CP is far from certain though.
1. Fultz
2. Ball
3. Jackson
4. Tatum
5. Smith Jr
6. Fox
7. Monk
8. Isaac
9. Markkanen
10. Ntilikina
I think Smith Jr may slide a little and I think he's becoming undervalued at this point. He has all the tools and athleticism to be an elite PG. I understand the skepticism to a degree but I still think he's a big time prospect. He reminds me a little of a more athletic CP who also doesn't have elite size/length, though likely not as good a passer. Whether he will ever have the leadership of a guy like CP is far from certain though.
An interesting point that I forgot to mention and I wish I had thought of it, but I read it on another site a few weeks ago. I agree with Funky that they'll pony up the 1.5 mil and let Afflalo walk, saving themselves 10.5 mil in capspace. However there is a short period of time between the official end of the season, and the official beginning of next season (July 1st) where Afflalo becomes a very nice trading chip to use where you could acquire a player in the same price range that another team wants to unload for salary cap purposes without taking much if any salary back.
For instance, lets say that the Clippers, who are looking at a couple of their players becoming freeagents. Chris Paul and Griffin can both opt out, and Redick is already an unrestricted freeagent. Right now, they're near the top of the league in salary. They're going to need to clear some cap space. Austin Rivers has another year on his contract at 11 mil a year. We could trade Afflalo to the Clippers and they could immediately cut Afflalo and only owe 1.5 mil against the cap. We would acquire a combo guard that has played a lot of PG for the Clips this season.
I know, you'll say why would Doc trade his own son? Well, because they're at 109 mil already counting cap holds without resigning anyone. They'll have a hard time resigning all of them even if they were to do the deal I suggest. Both Griffin and Paul are going to want max salaries. Anyway, that's just an example. I'm sure someone can come up with a better one.
For instance, lets say that the Clippers, who are looking at a couple of their players becoming freeagents. Chris Paul and Griffin can both opt out, and Redick is already an unrestricted freeagent. Right now, they're near the top of the league in salary. They're going to need to clear some cap space. Austin Rivers has another year on his contract at 11 mil a year. We could trade Afflalo to the Clippers and they could immediately cut Afflalo and only owe 1.5 mil against the cap. We would acquire a combo guard that has played a lot of PG for the Clips this season.
I know, you'll say why would Doc trade his own son? Well, because they're at 109 mil already counting cap holds without resigning anyone. They'll have a hard time resigning all of them even if they were to do the deal I suggest. Both Griffin and Paul are going to want max salaries. Anyway, that's just an example. I'm sure someone can come up with a better one.
I think Given that Portland is projected to be MASSIVELY over the salary cap floor next season and we should be able to get heavily under we should consider taking on Turner's albatross of a contract for draft picks. They can't really afford 3 guaranteed first round contracts on top of being around 25-30M over the Luxury tax line. All three of those guaranteed contracts all count double against the cap for them. Given just how bad that contract is as well as how desperate they are, I would look to try to get their highest pick or their second two picks. Or maybe one of the low picks this year and a protected pick next year.
Also it would help us get to the cap floor.
** Edited, they also have a ton of guys under contract so I'm not sure they could even add 3 first rounders.
Also it would help us get to the cap floor.
** Edited, they also have a ton of guys under contract so I'm not sure they could even add 3 first rounders.
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We do not have to get to the cap floor. All that would happen is that the delta would be distributed amongst the players on our roster, which would be a nice little bonus for them. No reason to overpay for guys we do not have in our long term plans. Now, trading cap space for future assets is a different story.
The worst possible thing Vlade can do with all that capspace is spend for the sake of it. Bring in players that fit the way you want to play and don't overpay for declining vets just to fill roster spots. Make a trade or two if necessary. Spending in free agency isn't always the best method to go, especially for a small market team with a bad history of dysfunction and ineptitude.
If we took Markkanen, where is the rebounding going to come from? Pairing him and WCS together would be incredibly soft.
Kofous is the only player on the roster that can rebound consistently at the moment. Skal is showing promise but he's also playing against backups and specific matchups at the moment.
Kofous is the only player on the roster that can rebound consistently at the moment. Skal is showing promise but he's also playing against backups and specific matchups at the moment.
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