Don't worry guys if all goes according to the Vlade Master Plan, and our guys bring their "A" games tonight, we might be break 90 points! Looking at the standings and schedule I think good chance exists that DAL, POR and T'Wolves pass us in win totals when the season comes to merciful end. We will probably hover around the win totals of Knicks and Pelicans, assuming NOP win another game again this season with "The Toxic One". That would put us in the 6-8 worst range after these sorry sack teams:
1. Nets (Celts)
2. Suns
3. Lakers
4. Magic
5. 76ers
I think these teams are fairly entrenched in their ineptitude and tank aspirations. NOP, Mavs and Blazers have talent, pride and delusional playoff aspirations. Of course if KD is sidelined indefinitely with bum knee who knows what could happen in the #1 vs #8 match-up?!?!? The Nuggets got their 26th win in Chicago last night.
As bad as they stink defensively, when they are on offensively, they can compete with anyone. So they will likely finish ahead of us and our anemic offense. Dallas is competitive with Seth Curry flame throwing, Dirk spotting up, Barnes scoring, and Carlisle incorporating Noel. I see them getting a few Ws.
So we are nestled in this esteemed range with NOP, NYK and SAC. This is the sweet spot to be! Why? Well (1) we don't convey our pick to CHI (2) We have an outside chance at Top 3 if the 76ers getting in there and (3) it can be quantified the likelihood that NOP move up and that looks favorable for us. Let's suppose NOP continue to get D League play outside their "Big Three", frustrations builds and techs mount with Boogie missing 2-3 games before the season due to uncontrolled emotions. Possible and probable! I am fascinated to see how NOP season plays out with almost morbid curiosity.
Here's what could happen if the Pelicans don't get it together. If the Pelicans finish with the 6th, 7th or 8th worst record:
- 6th worst: 74% chance of landing #6 or #7 (only 21% of Top 3)
- 7th worst: 83% chance of 7th or 8th (only 14% of Top 3)
- 8th worst: 89% chance of 8th or 9th (only 10% of Top 3)
These are the odds I would hope the Kings front office was aware of before conceding Top 3 protection, but doubtful! Regardless a tradeoff exists between Pelicans losing to point it becomes disadvantageous and they are likely to keep their pick. What is that tipping point? Good news, it is basically out of reach. Its a point unlikely to be broached with the those five bad teams fairly secure at the bottom of the standings.
- 5th worst: 70% chance of landing #5, #6, or #7 (only 30% chance of Top 3)
- 4th worst: 61% chance of landing #4, #5 or #6 (39% chance of Top 3)
- 3rd worst: 53% chance of landing #4, #5 or #6 (47% chance of Top 3)
It is not until a team falls to 3rd worst record that it basically turns into a coin flip to get a Top 3 pick. The best risk/reward ratio for Kings is to finish with the 5th or 6th worst record to move up while 76ers simultaneously get lucky, so that even if the swap rights are exercises we get a Top 3 pick! The best risk/reward ratio for SAC to get NOP pick while being relatively high in the lottery, is for the Pelicans to finish with the 7th or 8th worst record. Based on my analysis, these odds appear fairly realistic.
Even if we don't move up into Top 3, the #6 and #7 pick in the 2017 draft or the #7 and #8 pick in the 2017 draft would be incredibly sweet! (Fox and Tatum, anyone?
) Why do I present this data and analysis in context of a pre-game thread? Perhaps it will give fans small consolation if and when we lose to a 9-win team tonight!
