Our Remaining Schedule, George Karl's History, And the Fate of Our Draft Pick

[Bricklayer]

I thought there was an interconnected set of issues kinda deserving of their own thread.

Here's the situation:

1) we are 18-34
2) we just hired a veteran coach with over 1000 career wins with a history of quickly turning around teams midseason
3) we in fact with this same roster were winning in the early season, so this roster has shown it might be able to compete
4) our first round draft pick this year has a condition on it, we keep it if we have one of the 10 worst records in the league. the Chicago Bulls get it if our record is 11th worst or better.

So let's look at that:

I -- 11th Worst Record
Right now the bottom 10 teams in the league are:

Pistons 21.33 .389
Pacers 21-33 .389
Nuggets 20-33 .377
Jazz 19-34 .358
Kings 18-34 .346
Magic 17-39 .304
Lakers 13-40 .245
76ers 12-41 .226
Wolves 11-42 .208
Knicks 10-43 .189

The Celtics are 11th at a .392 win%.

A .389 win % = 32 wins. So does a .392 win%. So right now the over/under number for us keeping our pick is 33 wins (in fact if things kept going as they were, even at 32 wins we'd be tied for 10th/11th and could lose it in a coin flip.

We're 18-34, there are 30 games to go. A 15-15 or better record under Karl loses that pick this year.

II -- George Karl's History of Midseason Coaching Jobs
George Karl has twice taken over teams midseason. In both cases he was the third coach for the team during the season.

In 1991-92 he took over the Sonics after KC Jones went 18-18, and the interim Bob Kloppenberg went 2-2. Karl went 27-15 the rest of the season.

In 2004-2005 he took over the Nuggets after Jeff Bzdelik went 13-15, and Michael Cooper went 4-10. Karl went 32-8 the remainder of the season.

now he takes over the Kings after Micahel Malone went 11-13, and Tyrone Corbin went 7-21.

III -- Kings Remaining Games This Season

2/20 vs. Boston
2/21 @ Clippers
2/25 Memphis
2/27 San Antonio
3/1 Portland
3/3 @New York
3/4 @San Antonio
3/6 @Orlando
3/7 @Miami
3/9 @Atlanta
3/11 @Charlotte
3/13 @Philadelphia
3/14 @Washington
3/16 Atlanta
3/18 Clippers
3/20 Charlotte
3/22 Washington
3/24 Philadelphia
3/25 @Phoenix
3/27 @New Orleans
3/30 @Memphis
4/1 @Houston
4/3 New Orleans
4/5 Utah
4/7 Minnesota
4/8 @Utah
4/10 @Oklahoma City
4/12 @Denver
4/13 Lakers
4/15 @Lakers

-- so, after an easy opponent for Karl's first game, the schedule turns brutal with 4 straight against Western powers, then the insano back to back from New York to San Antonio, then a lot of beatbale East teams, but all on a long East Coast road trip, which ends in tough back to back in Washington. A lot of winnable games though from that point on. Could we end up getting that pick or not based on the season ending home and home gimmes vs. the Lakers?

 

[Gliesian]

Here comes that dreaded portmanteau word...

 

[Bricklayer]

Here comes that dreaded portmanteau word...

Not for me -- I've been hoping we would lose our pick for years now. That damn restriction has completely destroyed our ability top make credible offers for major players. So long as the conditional pick lingers on, we can never trade future picks to make a big deal happen.

 

[Gliesian]

Not for me -- I've been hoping we would lose our pick for years now. That damn restriction has completely destroyed our ability top make credible offers for major players. So long as the conditional pick lingers on, we can never trade future picks to make a big deal happen.

I'm not sure I follow you... Wouldn't keeping our pick this year allow us to make a more credible offer?

 

[enigma99a]

Can't get excited about the draft. So we can get another Stauskas? Last 10 games 30% shooting. Time to go try something different I say

 

[Bricklayer]

I'm not sure I follow you... Wouldn't keeping our pick this year allow us to make a more credible offer?

No, the problem is that if we keep the pick, by rule the only thing we can trade is the player immediately after we draft him. We can;t trade the pick before the draft. We can't trade any other picks in future drafts.

The whole problem is something called the Stepien Rule, which is a rule dating back to the 1980s they put in because of this idiot owner who kept on trading away all his first round picks and crippling his franchise. So now the rule is that you can't trade away first round picks in consecutive years. Problem is with this conditional pick lingering around, you never know WHEN it might suddenly come due. So you can;t trade this year's pick, because if the conditional pick happens next year, then this year and next year would be consecutive years. You can't trade next year's pick, or two years or whatever. You're trapped. The only day of the year you can deal a rookie is on draft day, AFTER you draft him. I mean you could trade him a few days later or whatnot, but that's basically it. You can't plan ahead. You can't take advantage of an opportunity that suddenly pops up. You're just stuck running in mud 364 days a year.

The sooner we lose that conditional pick, the sooner we can return to making normal deals like a grownup franchise ratehr than an eternal ward of the league being protected from itself (which actually the way we run things might be a good idea).

 

[c-webb1s#1]

Honestly at this point i hope we lose the pick! Losing in bunches with George would not make me feel any better and DMC needs to see that with GK we can really go far with him at the helm!

 

[randymoss1881]

I got us going 16-14 and loosing the pick. Having a .500 record will boost the moral of the team and have us going in the right direction. But most importantly we would finally get out of that pick and make trades.

 

[gunks]

Who cares about the pick. I want to win.

And hopefully, none of the prospects this year are very "Golden Statey".... That way GM Vivek doesnt mind us losing the pick either.

 

[Gliesian]

No, the problem is that if we keep the pick, by rule the only thing we can trade is the player immediately after we draft him. We can;t trade the pick before the draft. We can't trade any other picks in future drafts.

The whole problem is something called the Stepien Rule, which is a rule dating back to the 1980s they put in because of this idiot owner who kept on trading away all his first round picks and crippling his franchise. So now the rule is that you can't trade away first round picks in consecutive years. Problem is with this conditional pick lingering around, you never know WHEN it might suddenly come due. So you can;t trade this year's pick, because if the conditional pick happens next year, then this year and next year would be consecutive years. You can't trade next year's pick, or two years or whatever. You're trapped. The only day of the year you can deal a rookie is on draft day, AFTER you draft him. I mean you could trade him a few days later or whatnot, but that's basically it. You can't plan ahead. You can't take advantage of an opportunity that suddenly pops up. You're just stuck running in mud 364 days a year.

The sooner we lose that conditional pick, the sooner we can return to making normal deals like a grownup franchise ratehr than an eternal ward of the league being protected from itself (which actually the way we run things might be a good idea).

Ah thanks for clarifying. My feelings are that if we can't trade the pick immediately, it's not worth giving up the wins; however, if there is a small chance we could trade, then I won't mind keeping the draft pick. I mean, if we keep the pick at 50% wins from here on out, I'll take that.

 

[Iced Espresso]

Brick, with our luck no matter where we finish we will pick 11th, the pick is gone.

 

[hrdboild]

The rule is you can't trade consecutive first round picks. Chicago gets our pick (top 10 protected) in 2016 or 2017 at which point it becomes either pick 56-60 in the second round of the 2018 draft or nothing at all. Our 2018 pick is still ours regardless which means we can in fact trade a future first round pick right now, it just has to be 2019 or later. And the closer we get to 2019, the less our traded 2016/2017 pick actually matters in terms of trade flexibility.

Also, you can trade the pick immediately. It's called a draft day trade and it happens all the time. For instance, Boston tanked like hell in 2007 to get the #5 pick which they traded for Ray Allen. Two years later they won their only championship of the last 30 years and came close to 2 more. Without Ray Allen and Paul Pierce already on the team, Kevin Garnett probably doesn't even agree to the Boston trade and the big three never exists.

I have no idea what's going to happen over the last 30 games with George Karl in charge. We have more road games than home games but a concentration of very winnable games in April. Based on our performance so far, we should win 9 or 10 more and hold onto a pick in the 6-8 range but I can see the team playing inspired ball for the first time in two months and playing just well enough to lose the pick as other (smarter) franchises go into full-tank mode for the last 3-4 weeks. As far as I'm concerned, that would be a complete disaster. A team which can play .500 ball or better with a competent coach should make the playoffs next season if they make one or two smart personnel moves in the off-season. I feel that's a pretty realistic scenario for us. Which means bringing in Karl with 30 games left in the season might have just cost us the best chance we have of improving our team over the summer and that has implications for next season, you know the one that actually matters. Whether you keep the pick yourself or trade it, a top 10 pick represents a significant asset we would lose for no reason at all besides impatience.

You get one lotto pick right and your team is set for a decade (New Orleans had the 4th worst record in 2012 and got Anthony Davis, Golden State had the 11th worst record in 2011 and got Klay Thompson, Indiana had the 10th worst record in 2010 and got Paul George, Washington had the 5th worst record the same year and got John Wall, Golden State had the 7th worst record in 2009 and got Steph Curry, Seattle/OKC had the 5th worst record in 2007 and got Kevin Durant) Almost every team in the league can tie their success or lack thereof directly back to the draft lottery. That's especially true of our team which has had one good run of playoff success in Sacramento that directly resulted from a #3 pick in 1991 and consecutive strong picks in the late 90s.

I can understand feeling like it's time for this franchise to stop waiting for salvation from ping pong balls but 30 games to go in a lost season is when you cut your losses and accept the lottery ticket you've earned, don't sprint to the finish line while all your competitors are faking injuries and pulling up lame all around you. Sure you can hold your head high and say you refused to tank, but really you're just shooting yourself in the foot and other teams are happy to let you do it. Maybe George Karl can get us back to the playoffs and maybe DeMarcus Cousins spends his whole career fighting to make it out of the Western Conference like Webber did and maybe most of you are happy with that. It's better than where we are now right? I just think we've already thrown this season away, more or less, what's the harm in taking a free shot here to load up on reinforcements before the playoff push actually begins in earnest? It's not being greedy, it's recognizing your situation and responding to it rationally.

Brick, with our luck no matter where we finish we will pick 11th, the pick is gone.

Our current position would result in us picking no worse than 9th (and only a 0.1% chance of that actually happening) so...

 

[Mike]

I think we'll end up keeping the pick. Our schedule features some tough runs, especially March which looks brutal apart from some of the eastern conference teams. I guess going .500 or better is possible with Karl's record and that would be a good thing with the team showing improvement, but to be honest, I think we'll get 10 wins and keep our pick.

 

[IfAt1st]

Nope - there's no way after this much pain absorbed by the franchise and fans, that the Kings end up losing this pick.

Brick - I understand about your well-researched history.

But Karl is a company man (now, to start with at least) - he's not going to come in, ride roughshod over this concerted tankjob orchestrated (purposely or accidentally) by this FO, and win enough to keep the pick.

This FO wants another pick - the personalities involved took WAY too much to the experience, and I think they want another shot, bad.

Karl will wait till next year to be concerned with winning - there are no expectations (other than historical) for him to win this year. This roster still has to perform too well to eke out wins. Even if everyone was properly motivated to win, it would take extreme roster excellence to win 15 games.
The Kings will make games be much closer and more competitive, and then they will find ways to lose when the clock reads 0:00.

Just like they did last year - see any coincidences?

The FO has been very consistent in their statements that "Come 2016, with our new arena, the Kings will be winners again." (paraphrased)
Y'all thought that was a sales pitch - what we didn't realize was it was a guarantee of not winning 'til then- the FO didn't want to win this year.

 

[Bricklayer]

But Karl is a company man (now, to start with at least) - he's not going to come in, ride roughshod over this concerted tankjob orchestrated (purposely or accidentally) by this FO, and win enough to keep the pick.

I think you will find that George Karl is about as far from a company man as you are likely to hire. Perhaps a major reason why there was reluctance to hire him. He's his own company. he hasn't coached a team to a losing record in 2 decades. Doubt he intends to start now.

 

[upinsmoke]

WCS please.

 

[King Baller]

I think it will be close. Remember other teams are doing the tank job also The Kings under Karl should stay ahead of Minny and the Lakers and pass up the Utah and Denver. In the east Philly and the Knicks are a given Its those 7 East teams from 7 to 13 that confuse this issue. Fortunately two of those East team will make the playoffs. The Kings may end up with a better record than a couple of East Playoff teams!

All that said I think Karl gets the Kings to a spot where the Bulls get the pick. I'm hoping PDA pulls off a trade where the protection gets removed and the Kings get Taj or Snell for players not named Cousins, Gay or McLemore.

KB

 

[King Baller]

That could be a goal for this year. Get to a record where the Kings would make the Playoff's in the East. It may not sound like much but keep the last decade in mind.

 

[LPKingsFan]

That assumes other teams will be static. Yes, I imagine those near the bottom will continue full-on tank mode, but if, say, Paul George shows promising signs of returning, you better believe the Pacers are going for that playoff spot. The Pistons might, too, even with all their injuries. Denver, though, is apparently a seller. The trade deadline will be telling.

 

[John Galt]

Yeah when I looked at that list I thought one of our best hopes is that the Pacers out-perform us the rest of the way and they do have the talent to do just that. We eke into the 10 spot and hope nobody lotto-ball jumps us.

 

[dude12]

1st round picks are nice but we need to sign a damn good free agent in the off-season....you just have to. Maybe Karl gets us back on track and we finish strong and then the team looks more desirable to a FA. I think that is the best avenue for a quicker turnaround. I'm afraid if we had the pick that we would pass on all those nice bigs in the draft and take a SG for the third consecutive year.

 

[ockingsfan]

I think the kings finish strong. Finish the year 20 wins and 10 losses with coach Karl.

We finish with 12 or 13th draft slot.

But here is the catch.

The basketball gods smile on the kings and we win a top 3 pick in the lottery!

 

[Tetsujin]

Yeah when I looked at that list I thought one of our best hopes is that the Pacers out-perform us the rest of the way and they do have the talent to do just that. We eke into the 10 spot and hope nobody lotto-ball jumps us.

Well lotto wise, our best hope would be tearing through the league and winning a ton of games, winding up at the 15th or 16th slot but getting the first overall pick anyways.

 

[9x1x6]

Can't get excited about the draft. So we can get another Stauskas? Last 10 games 30% shooting. Time to go try something different I say

Well thank god you arent on the coaching staff.

 

[HereWeBoogie]

im gonna guess we go 17-13 and lose the pick

 

[GQ_Gabriel]

I sincerely hope and believe that the Kings have every intention of winning. Keeping that draft pick is a loser's mentality and something that Sacramento has unfortunately grown accustomed to.

 

[funkykingston]

I understand the times when it's best for a team's future to tank. But (1) this is not one of those times and (2) even when I understand the logic of it, I can't root for the Kings to lose games.

I would absolutely love to see the Kings get Willie Cauley-Stein. If that is possible due to keeping their draft pick then fine. If they don't keep their pick but can somehow make a trade to get him, that's fine too. But the more I watch him the more I see the ideal PF to slot next to Boogie. I'm not sure there's a major prospect that does more for his team.

 

[9x1x6]

I wouldnt mind keeping the pick.

I just hope we stop trading away all our young talent. I love the guys we draft way more then then the FAs and traded in guys.

 

[HereWeBoogie]

I sincerely hope and believe that the Kings have every intention of winning. Keeping that draft pick is a loser's mentality and something that Sacramento has unfortunately grown accustomed to.

They wouldn't have hired George Karl right now unless their intention was turning the team around asap

 

[chasen4r1]

I sincerely hope and believe that the Kings have every intention of winning. Keeping that draft pick is a loser's mentality and something that Sacramento has unfortunately grown accustomed to.

I can finally say I agree with you.

I just want to see this team win some games. If it takes finally losing that draft pick in exchange for ending this season on a high note, I'll take it. And finally maybe can make appealing trade packages and continue building on that momentum.

I won't be disappointed by any means if we keep the pick, but at this point I'd rather lose it and get it over with.