NFL discussion thread for 2014-2015
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I know we're all piling on Kap here but that offensive line play was, well, offensive. The Raiders were in the backfield almost immediately after the ball was snapped on almost every play.
Also not sure why the Niners went away from the run in the second half after it was gashing the Raiders in the first. Then again, this is offensive "genius" Greg Roman we're talking about.
Also not sure why the Niners went away from the run in the second half after it was gashing the Raiders in the first. Then again, this is offensive "genius" Greg Roman we're talking about.
It is virtually impossible for me to believe that everything could go so horribly wrong so quickly. There have to be things we're not seeing. Has the front line changed to the extent where they can no longer protect Kaep? Are his receivers just not paying attention or running the wrong routes? Has Vernon Davis totally lost it? Is there some kind of feud/power struggle going on between Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh?
Questions, questions, questions ... and no real answers.
Questions, questions, questions ... and no real answers.
He's 22nd if you include this week, he was 18th when I checked last week. Also, if you separate the 32 starting QBs into thirds, #22 would be the first on the list of those in the bottom 1/3. Obviously the difference is pretty meaningless, but I point it out to show that your exaggeration is an exaggeration. This is the same guy who was #6 last year and the year before. One bad stretch hardly makes him a bottom-tier QB.
And while he is playing poorly, so is the entire offense.
The first section of this article goes over some of the many issues the 49ers have faced:
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/week-14-nfl-49ers-raiders-browns-chiefs-colts-cardinals/
But it doesn't have any real answers either.
Glenn's right, the team has suffered more injuries than it did the previous three years under Harbaugh. This has affected the offensive line quite a bit (they lost their starting center who replaced last year's center, leaving a rookie to start the last few games, and Anthony Davis is simply much better than Jonathan Martin).
The defense has somehow played amazingly well through all the injuries, but yesterday they didn't do so well. They're without Bowman for probably all year, and Willis for over half. They're missing their nose tackle for the rest of the year and his backup for all of it so far. Aldon Smith was out for half of the year, and now Ahmad Brooks is in the doghouse. They played Leon McFadden (who?) as a third cornerback yesterday because Ward and Cook are gone for the season and Brock is still out, plus Culliver went out in the middle of the game. Other teams face lots of injuries, too (see Arizona), but it's clear that this is something the 49ers haven't had to deal with to the same level during their run of success.
I also think special teams is a huge problem. They were 30th in DVOA before this week. That's really bad and is the opposite of what helped the 49ers do well a couple years ago. The poor special teams means that the offense has to drive a lot further a lot more often to get the same amount of points, and they're just not able to do it.
I don't know what the fix is, but it's clearly not to replace Kaepernick. Finding an above average QB is so hard that it doesn't make sense to drop the one you have when there are so many other areas to look at.
And while he is playing poorly, so is the entire offense.
The first section of this article goes over some of the many issues the 49ers have faced:
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/week-14-nfl-49ers-raiders-browns-chiefs-colts-cardinals/
But it doesn't have any real answers either.
Glenn's right, the team has suffered more injuries than it did the previous three years under Harbaugh. This has affected the offensive line quite a bit (they lost their starting center who replaced last year's center, leaving a rookie to start the last few games, and Anthony Davis is simply much better than Jonathan Martin).
The defense has somehow played amazingly well through all the injuries, but yesterday they didn't do so well. They're without Bowman for probably all year, and Willis for over half. They're missing their nose tackle for the rest of the year and his backup for all of it so far. Aldon Smith was out for half of the year, and now Ahmad Brooks is in the doghouse. They played Leon McFadden (who?) as a third cornerback yesterday because Ward and Cook are gone for the season and Brock is still out, plus Culliver went out in the middle of the game. Other teams face lots of injuries, too (see Arizona), but it's clear that this is something the 49ers haven't had to deal with to the same level during their run of success.
I also think special teams is a huge problem. They were 30th in DVOA before this week. That's really bad and is the opposite of what helped the 49ers do well a couple years ago. The poor special teams means that the offense has to drive a lot further a lot more often to get the same amount of points, and they're just not able to do it.
I don't know what the fix is, but it's clearly not to replace Kaepernick. Finding an above average QB is so hard that it doesn't make sense to drop the one you have when there are so many other areas to look at.
To be fair, you also mentioned it didn't include this week's game, which would have dropped it even further and made your exaggeration less exaggerated, too. 
Anyhoo, kaepernick is not the only problem by any means.
They need to let Kap be Kap. They invested big money in him and have essentially decided that means he must be protected like a long term investment and basically reinvented what was a functional offense into a complete mess where everyone hates their role.
I said in his first big year, I like this guy but he's going to have an extremely short shelf life. Same thing with RGIII. You have to play their strengths even if it means a 7 year window instead of a 15 year window.
I said in his first big year, I like this guy but he's going to have an extremely short shelf life. Same thing with RGIII. You have to play their strengths even if it means a 7 year window instead of a 15 year window.
By the way, here's an interesting article that kind of argues against what I was saying earlier:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/any-given-sunday/2014/any-given-sunday-raiders-over-49ers
It says that by FootballOutsiders' numbers, Kaepernick is 29th in the league (well into the bottom 1/3 of QBs!) after being 3rd and 7th the previous two years. It also points out that historically, quarterbacks that start with two good years followed by a really bad one tend to play closer to their bad year going forward. I think Kaepernick's two good years were better than most of those comparisons, so he should have a better chance to get back up to where he was, but still, that's not encouraging information.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/any-given-sunday/2014/any-given-sunday-raiders-over-49ers
It says that by FootballOutsiders' numbers, Kaepernick is 29th in the league (well into the bottom 1/3 of QBs!) after being 3rd and 7th the previous two years. It also points out that historically, quarterbacks that start with two good years followed by a really bad one tend to play closer to their bad year going forward. I think Kaepernick's two good years were better than most of those comparisons, so he should have a better chance to get back up to where he was, but still, that's not encouraging information.
I have read an article (can't find it) that says he was successful in the beginning because he was a new style QB. Defenses didn't know what to do. Now the league has caught on to him. His running skills have been neutralized. Now he has to depend pretty much on his arm which has never been very accurate. I also think there may be a battle between Roman and Harbaugh as the plays being called no longer are gimmicky and fun and, most importantly, successful.
He is now dealing with an injured O line but his problems preceded Iupati, center, and Davis' injuries.
The conclusion of the article is 180 degrees from your conclusion. The article in a sense says that if he doesn't develop into a pocket passer with an accurate arm, he will not be good.
He is now dealing with an injured O line but his problems preceded Iupati, center, and Davis' injuries.
The conclusion of the article is 180 degrees from your conclusion. The article in a sense says that if he doesn't develop into a pocket passer with an accurate arm, he will not be good.
I don't know if I buy that last part. The 49ers have admitted that they call fewer plays with Kaepernick running during the regular season to prevent wear and tear. The question is more about whether they should start calling those more now to even make the playoffs instead of waiting for the postseason. He's the most successful running QB in postseason history, including last year, so I don't think it has anything to do with teams figuring it out.
That said, it has always been important for him to improve his abilities as a pocket passer. I never thought it was necessary for him to do that if the 49ers wanted to win the Super Bowl (obviously, since they were that close already), but the better pocket passer he is the more options they have. That's especially true when injuries limit what the team can do.
That said, it has always been important for him to improve his abilities as a pocket passer. I never thought it was necessary for him to do that if the 49ers wanted to win the Super Bowl (obviously, since they were that close already), but the better pocket passer he is the more options they have. That's especially true when injuries limit what the team can do.
Wilson has a bigger arm and is more effective in the pocket. I watched him in Seattle when the Pats came to town (end zone seats so had a good view of how the QBs operated) and he was still kind of an unknown quantity and he just went off. As soon as the threat was there he pretty much threw bombs all over the Pats (admittedly crappy, this was 2012) secondary and lead a 4th quarter comeback. At that point he couldn't really hit the mid range passes but he's improved. And he can operate in a more conservative offense. Kap really thrived where he had the green light to run recklessly.
But yes, having a dominant running game changes everything. Ask Elway.
But yes, having a dominant running game changes everything. Ask Elway.