The debate around Isaiah Thomas has gotten so inane its making my head hurt. Honestly, in terms of pure hyperbole surrounding the discussion, its just devolved into mind-numbing absurdity.
Here are the facts:
1. Isaiah is scoring at an elite rate. I mentioned before that the only players scoring at a higher volume (23 points per 36), at a higher usage (27.2) and higher efficiency (.59 TS%) this year are James Harden, Stephen Curry, Lebron James, Kevin Durant and Paul George. If you want to look at every player since 2000, you can add Shaq, prime Amare, Chris Bosh, Yao Ming, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Martin to that list. In terms of pure scoring ability, Isaiah is in extremely select company. No, even flukey seasons like Mike James in 2005 and Flip Murray in 2001 don’t qualify at this level of production. And no, you can’t just assume that the 12th man on the Pelicans roster will be able to replicate Isaiah’s combination of volume and efficiency if you jack up his usage and number of shots. Its an absurd proposition.
2. The addition of Isaiah to the starting lineup along with the addition of a (healthy) Rudy Gay has ramped up the Kings offense into elite territory. Taking out the game when Rudy was suffering from knee issues, with Isaiah and Rudy as starters, the Kings’ offensive rating has jumped up a full 3 points to 110.2. If this number holds up for the entire season, that would be good for 4th in the entire NBA. It’s an extremely small sample size of 5 games, but considering that Rudy was essentially thrown out there without much practice or training camp, its highly encouraging. Just visually speaking, Isaiah has been able to play between the gaps in the defense caused by Cousins and Gay’s presence extremely well, repeatedly getting to the rim and finding space to pull up for his midrange jumper.
The stats for the last six games for the trio are as follows:
Thomas: 20.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 6.7 assists, .577 TS%, 23.2 USG%
Gay: 18.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, .576 TS%, 25.1 USG%
Cousins: 22.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, .583 TS%, 30.2 USG%
That’s essentially roughly 60 points per game from three shot-creators using roughly 78% of the available possessions. There is really not much more you can ask for offensively from a “big three”.
So offensively at least, Isaiah isn’t just an expendable, replaceable commodity. He’s powering the team’s offense to new heights, Demarcus and Rudy play much better alongside him, and he’s still getting scoring points on his own at an elite level. Even looking at the entire season, the Kings have had a middle-of-the-pack ORtg despite only 2 (!!!) players (Cousins and Isaiah) above league average in TS%. That’s basically two guys making the offense NBA-average surrounded by chaff.
3. Defensively there are significant question marks as to whether Isaiah starting can work. There are concerns not only about his size but also his effort level. It seems to me that Isaiah tends to coast defensively to expend more energy on offense. When your guard-line includes a raw rookie beside you, that’s not going to get it done defensively. Not only are guards the first line of defense in half-court sets, but they are also critical to stopping leakouts in transition defense. Isaiah and McLemore is not going to get it done right now when McLemore is still a raw 20 year old learning the game. This is compounded with Cousins and Thompson frequently blowing rotations and fouling at unacceptable rates.
There some options for long-term solutions. The obvious one (that we’re going to have to make regardless of Isaiah’s situation) is to replace Thompson with a plus defender who can protect the rim and space the floor.
The next is to address the guard line of defense. In the long-term, we need a defensive specialist at one of those positions. One option is to develop McLemore into a low usage, defensive-oriented player. I’ve been impressed with his improvements on defense thus far. However that would be a waste of his natural talent to be left picking up the offensive scraps leftover when Isaiah, Gay and Cousins are done. Another option is to bring McLemore off the bench and get a Thabo Sefalosha-type of 3+D player to play next to Isaiah. The last option is to bring in a defensive oriented roleplaying PG (a Mario Chalmers type) to play next to McLemore and bring Isaiah off the bench in a gunner role. The last option would obviously be predicated on McLemore’s development as a legitimate third option behind Cousins and Gay.
As for this season, there really are no other options beside starting Isaiah and McLemore together. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t questions for Kings fans to monitor throughout the season. Namely, does the offense continue to power on at the rate that it has? Does Isaiah continue to score efficiently without squeezing out Gay and Cousins? How fast does McLemore develop offensively? Defensively, what is Isaiah’s effort like? How fast is McLemore improving on defense?
The answers to these questions are going to determine whether Isaiah is the right fit for the franchise as a starter moving forward. As for the significant anti-Isaiah animus prevalent in the Kings fandom, it appears to feed off of preconceived notions of what kind of PG a championship team demands. The truth is that almost every type of PG under the sun has won a championship. You have your first options offensively (Tony Parker, Chauncey Billups, Isiah Thomas). You have defensive-oriented roleplayers (Mario Chalmers, Derek Fisher). You have pass-first PGs (Jason Kidd, Rajon Rondo). If you open it up to teams who have made the finals, the results become even more scattered. You add Russell Westbrook (score-first athletic behemoth), Jameer Nelson (score-first quick midget), John Stockton (pass-first with elite shooting ability), Allen Iverson (SG in PG’s body), etc. etc.
Essentially there’s no archetype to a championship-winning PG. And if you waste all of your resources looking for what your favored style of play is while ignoring clear talent on your own roster, you waste away years of Cousins’ career due to brainless inflexibility. There is zero inherent reason why Isaiah can’t be the starting PG on a championship caliber team if that team is constructed correctly. The only reason will be if his play doesn’t support it, which so far has not been the case. It may be moving forward, but at this point in time it simply hasn’t.