Willie Cauley-Stein: the 2018-19 Season watch

Sac.1989

Sac.1989

Starter
#121
#121
I think we can start planning for a WCS contract extension at this point given his strong start. I am going with the premise he continues this and embraces his big brother, vet like status within the team.

He enters RFA at the conclusion of the season. What do we feel he deserves ?

No one embodies the modern day big man better than Willie so i feel we will have major competition from the league. Do we eat the cost of paying WCS significant money to keep him knowing he is an asset and should be trade-able given his skill set ? End of the day Marvin is at least another season away from being a full time starter in my eyes
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#122
#122
Continuing on the WCS rebound watch, WCS had 13 rebounds in the SA game. Sounds great in the abstract - that is a rebound every 2.5 minutes, a very good stat. Problem is, Aldridge had 18 rebounds in about the same amount of time. WCS still only has outrebounded the opposing center in only one game this year.

Teams that may bid for WCS are going to be more interested in his services, imo, if they are a running team like the Kings, as running the floor is certainly at the top of his positive qualities. Maybe he's more valuable to the Kings than to a lot of other teams because of that. We'll see.
 
TaxMan

TaxMan

Starter
#123
#123
Kingster said:
Continuing on the WCS rebound watch, WCS had 13 rebounds in the SA game. Sounds great in the abstract - that is a rebound every 2.5 minutes, a very good stat. Problem is, Aldridge had 18 rebounds in about the same amount of time. WCS still only has outrebounded the opposing center in only one game this year.
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Dang....you're a tough critic :)
 
kingsboi

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#125
#125
Kingster said:
Continuing on the WCS rebound watch, WCS had 13 rebounds in the SA game. Sounds great in the abstract - that is a rebound every 2.5 minutes, a very good stat. Problem is, Aldridge had 18 rebounds in about the same amount of time. WCS still only has outrebounded the opposing center in only one game this year.

Teams that may bid for WCS are going to be more interested in his services, imo, if they are a running team like the Kings, as running the floor is certainly at the top of his positive qualities. Maybe he's more valuable to the Kings than to a lot of other teams because of that. We'll see.
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it may be time to accept that Willie won't be paid due to his rebounding so when he has double digit rebounding, the Kings are elated
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#128
#128
A 10 rebound a game guy used to be a very good rebounder in this league. I'm not so sure now. League-wide scoring seems to be up considerably, so it does make some sense that as scoring has gone up rebounding should also go up. More possessions, more rebounds. This would seem to apply even moreso to the Kings, one of the top fast breaking teams in the league. That's why I'm focusing on "relative" rebounding for WCS, which shows the disparity between him and the competition.
 
parker

parker

Bench
#129
#129
kingsboi said:
15 and 9 is his ceiling IMO. There will be nights he puts up 20 and 10 but those won't be his averages or anywhere close
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I would think that would be a ceiling that Willie will be bumping his head on pretty quickly. My prediction would be he matches or exceeds those point totals this year and gets close to those rebounding numbers. And it would be pretty pessimistic to think he has reached his ceiling after 4 years.
 
ockingsfan

ockingsfan

Starter
#130
#130
Sac.1989 said:
He enters RFA at the conclusion of the season. What do we feel he deserves ?
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I think he will get a Clint Capella type contract 5 years for $90 million, $18 million average.

If we get unlucky, we may end up in a Washington-Otto Porter situation, where the player thinks they are a max money player and gets some sucker team to give them the max offer. If that happens, we may have to match, since WCS is a big part of our young core and would set us back big time if we lose him and he continues to improve.
 
kingsboi

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#131
#131
parker said:
I would think that would be a ceiling that Willie will be bumping his head on pretty quickly. My prediction would be he matches or exceeds those point totals this year and gets close to those rebounding numbers. And it would be pretty pessimistic to think he has reached his ceiling after 4 years.
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there is pessimism and there is reality. I don't see much more improvement from Willie but that's just my line of thinking and I would love to be proven wrong on that front, but not surprised to say the least.
 
DesertFox

DesertFox

Starter
#132
#132
The weird thing is he is not the player we thought, or at least I thought, he would be.
I was expecting a rebounding shot blocker who can switch on D, which I think this team still badly needs. Willie has been great, but as an attacking scorer and rim runner who defends but doesn't block or rebound much better than average. It looks like he might even be able to take his range out to 3.

I'm glad to have him, and would be willing to pay the big bucks just on the chance that he can block a few more shots or hit the 3. That could buffer a loss in his new scoring, or combined could make him an all-star.
 
T

The_Jamal

Hall of Famer
#133
#133
ockingsfan said:
I think he will get a Clint Capella type contract 5 years for $90 million, $18 million average.

If we get unlucky, we may end up in a Washington-Otto Porter situation, where the player thinks they are a max money player and gets some sucker team to give them the max offer. If that happens, we may have to match, since WCS is a big part of our young core and would set us back big time if we lose him and he continues to improve.
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Yeah, somewhere around 18-20 is what he should get. Turner got 17.5mil/season, similar kind of player.

I don't think we'll be unlucky with WCS getting a huge offer. This FA class is huge and teams aren't going to want to miss out on all the UFA to throw a 23mil/year offer to WCS the first day of FA and tie up all their money. I don't think we'll have a huge issue if we give him the Turner/Capela $$. Maybe 1 or 2 mil more for inflation.
 
B

burekijogurt

Starter
#134
#134
Kingster said:
A 10 rebound a game guy used to be a very good rebounder in this league. I'm not so sure now. League-wide scoring seems to be up considerably, so it does make some sense that as scoring has gone up rebounding should also go up. More possessions, more rebounds. This would seem to apply even moreso to the Kings, one of the top fast breaking teams in the league. That's why I'm focusing on "relative" rebounding for WCS, which shows the disparity between him and the competition.
Click to expand...
WCS is averaging 8.6 (good for 25th in the NBA). Here are the top 20 this year so far for reference:

Rebounds Per Game
Andre Drummond • 16.62.
Hassan Whiteside • 15.23.
DeAndre Jordan • 13.74.
Rudy Gobert • 13.55.
Joel Embiid • 13.46.
Giannis Antetokounmpo • 13.07.
Anthony Davis • 12.98.
Enes Kanter • 12.19.
Nikola Mirotic • 11.710.
Karl-Anthony Towns • 11.611.
Tristan Thompson • 11.012.
Nikola Vucevic • 10.913.
Clint Capela • 10.914.
Deandre Ayton • 10.615.
LaMarcus Aldridge • 10.516.
Jusuf Nurkic • 10.517.
Nikola Jokic • 10.418.
Steven Adams • 10.419.
Blake Griffin • 10.220.
Ben Simmons • 9.5
 
kingsboi

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#135
#135
The_Jamal said:
Yeah, somewhere around 18-20 is what he should get. Turner got 17.5mil/season, similar kind of player.

I don't think we'll be unlucky with WCS getting a huge offer. This FA class is huge and teams aren't going to want to miss out on all the UFA to throw a 23mil/year offer to WCS the first day of FA and tie up all their money. I don't think we'll have a huge issue if we give him the Turner/Capela $$. Maybe 1 or 2 mil more for inflation.
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anything over 18 and the Kings should let him walk, in my opinion. His ceiling isn't high enough to warrant that kind of money and while he has been an important piece this season, he isn't the engine that makes this team go, so his production could be mirrored by another player if the asking price becomes too high.
 
T

The Hammer

All-Star
#136
#136
The_Jamal said:
Yeah, somewhere around 18-20 is what he should get. Turner got 17.5mil/season, similar kind of player.

I don't think we'll be unlucky with WCS getting a huge offer. This FA class is huge and teams aren't going to want to miss out on all the UFA to throw a 23mil/year offer to WCS the first day of FA and tie up all their money. I don't think we'll have a huge issue if we give him the Turner/Capela $$. Maybe 1 or 2 mil more for inflation.
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Pretty damn soon it's going to get hard to keep and pay all the guys you want on this team going forward, sooner than you think. In 2 years you have to pay Fox. FOX. And Willie could well end up being our number two big going forward if Bagley is what he seems to be, we'll know in a year max. Good thing we have Bogi on the cheap, but not for long. So you have potentially 4 guys deserving 15+ mill a year.... wat do? Well, I don't want to pull a Thunder and just GIVE crap away. I hope that's Vlade's next miracle.
 
T

The Hammer

All-Star
#138
#138
parker said:
I would think that would be a ceiling that Willie will be bumping his head on pretty quickly. My prediction would be he matches or exceeds those point totals this year and gets close to those rebounding numbers. And it would be pretty pessimistic to think he has reached his ceiling after 4 years.
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Glad I'm not the only one that sees this... also we are entering an NBA era that will see an upward trend in scoring for a few years, due to several rules changes that increase pace. Back in the 80s when teams averaged 120 pts a game 10 boards was not that much. It's a moneymaking stat so Willie might wanna get good at it lol.
 
TaxMan

TaxMan

Starter
#139
#139
kingsboi said:
anything over 18 and the Kings should let him walk, in my opinion. His ceiling isn't high enough to warrant that kind of money and while he has been an important piece this season, he isn't the engine that makes this team go, so his production could be mirrored by another player if the asking price becomes too high.
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Eeehhh....can’t let talent walk for nothing. Unless he says he doesn’t want to be here, you pay him market rate regardless of his shortcomings. Attracting ‘another player’ who can mirror his production is not easy in sac.
 
TaxMan

TaxMan

Starter
#140
#140
Kingster said:
A 10 rebound a game guy used to be a very good rebounder in this league. I'm not so sure now. League-wide scoring seems to be up considerably, so it does make some sense that as scoring has gone up rebounding should also go up. More possessions, more rebounds. This would seem to apply even moreso to the Kings, one of the top fast breaking teams in the league. That's why I'm focusing on "relative" rebounding for WCS, which shows the disparity between him and the competition.
Click to expand...
A fair way of looking at it....I was just giving you a hard time. :)
 
Sac.1989

Sac.1989

Starter
#141
#141
ockingsfan said:
I think he will get a Clint Capella type contract 5 years for $90 million, $18 million average.

If we get unlucky, we may end up in a Washington-Otto Porter situation, where the player thinks they are a max money player and gets some sucker team to give them the max offer. If that happens, we may have to match, since WCS is a big part of our young core and would set us back big time if we lose him and he continues to improve.
Click to expand...
I expect someone to give him close to max money. A capella type contract would be a best case scenario for me
 
S

Sarni

Prospect
#142
#142
Nobody will offer him a max. He will get a Capela deal at best, more likely a Nurkic kind of contract (he was signed for something like $12million a year). Money has dried up in the league, there will be a little more next year as teams are preparing for big free agency but they'll be going for the likes of Kemba, Klay even Middleton and Harris ahead of Cauley-Stein. I could maybe see a team like Dallas going for him but not even sure about that.

There will be too many high profile free agents available next year for WCS to get anywhere near max.
 
kingsboi

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#143
#143
TaxMan said:
Eeehhh....can’t let talent walk for nothing. Unless he says he doesn’t want to be here, you pay him market rate regardless of his shortcomings. Attracting ‘another player’ who can mirror his production is not easy in sac.
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I agree about not letting him walk for nothing. The Kings could always do a sign and trade with another team but realistically, I don't see them doing that anyway because they like what Willie brings to the team. The same production could be mirrored by Giles in my opinion, maybe not this year but he will come around faster than we think.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#144
#144
burekijogurt said:
WCS is averaging 8.6 (good for 25th in the NBA). Here are the top 20 this year so far for reference:

Rebounds Per Game
Andre Drummond • 16.62.
Hassan Whiteside • 15.23.
DeAndre Jordan • 13.74.
Rudy Gobert • 13.55.
Joel Embiid • 13.46.
Giannis Antetokounmpo • 13.07.
Anthony Davis • 12.98.
Enes Kanter • 12.19.
Nikola Mirotic • 11.710.
Karl-Anthony Towns • 11.611.
Tristan Thompson • 11.012.
Nikola Vucevic • 10.913.
Clint Capela • 10.914.
Deandre Ayton • 10.615.
LaMarcus Aldridge • 10.516.
Jusuf Nurkic • 10.517.
Nikola Jokic • 10.418.
Steven Adams • 10.419.
Blake Griffin • 10.220.
Ben Simmons • 9.5
Click to expand...
Thanks for the info. It would be nice if they had some stat that would show the percentage of rebounds that a player got during a given game, and then ranked the players accordingly. Such a stat would then account for the different number of rebound "opportunities" during the game. Such a stat would then factor in the fact that some teams play fast (more rebound opportunities) and some slow (fewer rebound opportunities).
 
jcassio

jcassio

Starter
#145
#145
I think Willie has redeemed himself. Not for everyone, obviously. But I'm pulling for him. That said, I'm determined to wait until the All Star break before I decide how much he deserves to be paid to remain a King. Or what I want for him in a sign and trade. We're just 17% into the season, guys.
 
Padrino

Padrino

All-Star
#146
#146
The Kings absolutely cannot let Willie walk if he sustains his current play. They're going to have to pay him whatever the market dictates. What he's bringing to the team right now is indispensable, and as he continues to develop (and as the league continues to evolve along its present course), he's likely to prove even more indispensable. He's never going to dominate the glass. He's never going to be an outright rim protector. He will remain a frustration for fans from time to time. But there's a reason the NBA is trending smaller; there just aren't that many bigs engineered for the fast-paced, rangey, switchy style of play that's en vogue at present.

If you have a gazelle-like 7-footer who is tailor-made for rim-running on offense and switching on defense, you hold on to him for dear life, especially when he's producing at these levels. 25 years old, 7', 240 lbs, 16.5/8.5 at 20 PER... I say pay the man. Yes, in a perfect world Willie would be able to provide more of what fans traditionally expect from the starting center position. But I'm not sure that we should be viewing WCS through a "traditional" lens in an era of NBA basketball where "traditional" is basically out the window. We'd be looking at a player closer to Joel Embiid's profile if Willie could do it all, and I don't think anybody has ever expected a superstar trajectory from Willie. He certainly won't be paid like one. But if he keeps at it, he's going to be very well-compensated for it, and the Kings should be the ones to write those checks.
 
C

Cojc

Bench
#147
#147
We are going to be in this situation more often as we get better. I think the coach has no doubt WCS is our center at this point in the season but that is a recent idea as we would not of kept stacking bigs if they did not think it was a problem.

Most folks were how and if he had any value and now some are now willing to hand him like 17M plus a year for multiple years. I think his current production just may get us something of value before the trade deadline.

But man I hope he is the real deal but his past leaves me suspect.
 
D

dude12

Hall of Famer
#148
#148
I get there is a crowd that needs WCS to rebound better, I get that part, but don’t forget to look at what he is doing well too. Tailor made for this team on rim running, a pretty good passer, and a switchable guy on defense. In the NBA now, it seems to me that you can get rebounds as a team to make up for not having a Drummond type guy. I think guards on a whole rebound more than years before and some guards are triple double threats but as a whole seems more guards have increased the rebound numbers.

Can’t let this guy walk.
 
B

burekijogurt

Starter
#149
#149
Kingster said:
Thanks for the info. It would be nice if they had some stat that would show the percentage of rebounds that a player got during a given game, and then ranked the players accordingly. Such a stat would then account for the different number of rebound "opportunities" during the game. Such a stat would then factor in the fact that some teams play fast (more rebound opportunities) and some slow (fewer rebound opportunities).
Click to expand...
WCS ranks 71st at rebounding percentage behind guys such as Whiteside at 1, DeAndre Jordan at 6, Clint Capela at 42, KAT at 43, KK at 45, Stephen Adams at 69 and ahead of guys such as Marc Gasol at 82, Green at 90, and MB3 at 115.
 
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