iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
Who will it be?
Who will be our second leading scorer this season?
- Thread starter iowamcnabb
- Start date
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
ok, will he do it at 18 plus points a game? 20? More?
twslam07
All-Star
Before the season started, I was thinking about where I would rank Sabonis on a title contending team, and I ended up thinking that he could be the 3rd best player on a title team due to his scoring abilities not really being elite (he picks his spots rather than being able to impose himself on a defense). I was also leaning towards having Fox as the 3rd best player on a title team with the potential to become the 2nd best player on a title team (dependent on an improvement in his C&S and off the dribble shooting).
If Fox continues his current play and Murray grows into a star player for us, we may have a solid star trio in our midst. Add Mitchell, Huerter, 2023 SAC 1st, and a solid SF/PF free agent during the 2023 offseason and we may be onto something.
Keegan is going to be a 20+ ppg scorer this season. He probably won't put up the numbers or highlights Banchero does, but it's unavoidable. He can drop 22 on a bad night. His 3 point shooting is that pure it only takes 4 or 5 plus a few regular buckets and free throws and it's done.
I feel like Sabonis is more like a 15-18ppg guy in this offense. Maybe if he starts knocking down a few outside shots and doesn't miss his FTs he will be good for 20, but right now he's more of a hub in the offense that can score when asked.
Huerter could light you up for 30 on any given night with his 3 point shooting but I don't think he'll be asked to do more than 15-18 a night either.
So it's definitely Keegan, the only question is how high is the limit?
I feel like Sabonis is more like a 15-18ppg guy in this offense. Maybe if he starts knocking down a few outside shots and doesn't miss his FTs he will be good for 20, but right now he's more of a hub in the offense that can score when asked.
Huerter could light you up for 30 on any given night with his 3 point shooting but I don't think he'll be asked to do more than 15-18 a night either.
So it's definitely Keegan, the only question is how high is the limit?
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
I was expecting 14-15 for this season back in the middle of summer but didn’t expect him to take off so soon and thought Sabonis would be taking more shots. At this point, I’m thinking something like 19 a game. I think Sabonis will start to score more and I’m sure Keegan will go through a rough spell or two.
macadocious
Starter
Keegan might have some 35+ point games this year.
It's Keegan, largely because of opportunity. Keegan is leading the team in minutes and - among the starters - looks for his shot more than anyone except Fox. Fox leads the team in FGA/36, followed by Lyles, Monk, and Davis, which matches the eyeball test.
And obviously Keegan's shooting it very well - and his shot looks pure. Huerter won't get the minutes/shots to be second. Even at 54% from 3 he's 3rd now. Sabonis has been getting absolutely swarmed (and beaten up) inside. He could be an 18 per game guy if the Kings' outside shooting creates a little more space for him inside and if the refs accord him some respect.
If/when the Kings really commit to moving the ball, it'l be a real pick-yer-poison conundrum for defenses. Only 5 games in, only Sabonis hasn't yet scored 20 among the 5 starters - and he's had 18 and 19. 20+ from any of those guys wouldn't surprise anybody - then add Monk and Davis off the bench... Lots of scoring punch.
I'll say Keegan at 19 per. 5 guys at 14+.
And obviously Keegan's shooting it very well - and his shot looks pure. Huerter won't get the minutes/shots to be second. Even at 54% from 3 he's 3rd now. Sabonis has been getting absolutely swarmed (and beaten up) inside. He could be an 18 per game guy if the Kings' outside shooting creates a little more space for him inside and if the refs accord him some respect.
If/when the Kings really commit to moving the ball, it'l be a real pick-yer-poison conundrum for defenses. Only 5 games in, only Sabonis hasn't yet scored 20 among the 5 starters - and he's had 18 and 19. 20+ from any of those guys wouldn't surprise anybody - then add Monk and Davis off the bench... Lots of scoring punch.
I'll say Keegan at 19 per. 5 guys at 14+.
Voted 18, just because I think the "2nd" scorer is going to change on a nightly basis. We've already seen Huerter pop, Sabonis is going to have 25-30 point games once he stops fouling(and more respect from refs, jesus) Monk can explode any game, HB has been total trash, but did show in that Mem game, he can still drop 20 on his super efficient shots.
I think it's going to stay Fox at 28%+ USG while the rest of these guys hang around the 17-22% range and pop on different nights. It's hard to have a 2nd 20 PPG scorer when you have 5 or 6 guys capable of microwave game.
Yeah the weird aspect of Sabonis is I DO think he's an elite scorer (18-20 PPG the last 3 years with elite TS% numbers is absolutely elite), but like you said, he looks to be a facilitator first. And it seems like he's really turned that aspect of his game up with the Kings, which I think has helped Fox take that next step as a scorer because he's actually getting shots created for him, rather than just doing it himself.
The offensive potential of the core is staggeringly good. Fox/Sabonis as elite paint collapsers surrounded by 2 elite C&S spacers is exactly how you win as a modern offense. That 5th spot needs to be some sort of defensive lynchpin type (PJ, Grant, etc) and the starting unit I do believe could be elite with the growth of Keegan.
Tetsu already posted this, but:
This is a great sign, considering how bad HB has been this year, how tough our schedule has been and how everyone is still learning how to play with each other. Really does illustrate how much the bench is letting the team down this year; the Kings top 4 has been extremely good. Partially on Brown too for not getting this lineup on the floor far more in the first 5 games.
TaxMan
Starter
Wow! That is great. I'm not sure that defensive rating can hold up, but would also expect their offensive production to get better as they start to gel.
twslam07
All-Star
Very much disagree that Sabonis is an elite scorer. He’s an efficient scorer that plays within himself, sure, but not an elite scorer. He’s not a guy that you give the ball that instantly creates a mismatch like Giannis, Durant, Embiid, Doncic, etc.
Think we just disagree on the function of "elite" scorer then. Like I think prime CP3/Nash were elite scorers too; their primary objective was to faciliate and be a playmaker though. They just never shot enough.
That's Sabonis to a lesser degree. Dude is incredibly unselfish and while he should be shooting 17-18 times a game, he backs off, creates for others and gives you a super efficient 18-20 PPG on excellent efficiency. I don't care how you're getting me those points, I just want them.
I don't know enough about the x's and o's of basketball to say, but how often do the Kings run plays for keegan murray? From the eye test it seems like he's between the 3rd or 4th option on offense. It's encouraging to see that he's able to still average 18 points a game not being the focal point of the offense.
ShastaKingsFan
All-Star
I don't want him shooting that much, unless he can improve his outside shot which has not looked good. At this point, the starting unit should be spreading shots around for everyone, with Fox, Murray, and Huerter taking the most
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
yeah either I’m to blame for Murray’s performance for posting this question or you are for saying he might have his first bad game in the game write up.
PorchSurfin
Starter
Murr would be the first one to say he and he alone is to "blame" for his poor shooting. That has nothing to do with the fact he was still a solid player on the court doing things that contribute to winning.
The thing I always hated about comparing him to Barnes is the fact that even if he isn't hitting his 3s he is still a solid player on the court. He doesn't disappear. He still makes plays that remind you he is out there.
Rookie Barnes, and even veteran Barnes for stretches, makes you forget he is even on the court.
That shows that Keegan has an impact that doesn't always show up in the box, he MAKES AN IMPACT. Few rookies can do that without the ball constantly in their hands.
Edit: I bet that Warriors team he was on where he went ice cold in the Finals would have benefitted from a player like Keegan who still finds ways to make an impact. Might have won that series...
twslam07
All-Star
I disagree that Sabonis could maintain a similar efficiency with added volume. He scores within the flow of the offense (which is perfectly fine). When he has to force the issue here and there, I don't see elite scorer skills. Durant can force the issue all day and maintain a solid efficiency, Giannis can force the issue all day and maintain a solid efficiency, Curry can force the issue and maintain a solid efficiency, etc.
In the 2021-22 season, Sabonis averaged...
- 0.4 isolation possessions per game on 0.65 PPP (9.2% percentile)
- 3.0 post up possessions per game on 0.84 PPP (25.4% percentile)
In the 2020-21 season, Sabonis averaged...
- 1.0 isolation possessions per game on 1.03 PPP (79.0% percentile)
- 4.2 post up possessions per game on 0.84 PPP (30.6% percentile)
In the 2019-20 season, Sabonis averaged...
- 0.2 isolation possessions per game on 0.50 PPP (4.5% percentile)
- 3.2 post up possessions per game on 0.91 PPP (47.7% percentile)
His isolation volume is extremely low compared to many other scoring bigs in todays game. You see some of the top PFs & Cs around 4-5 isolation possessions per game. Now his post up possessions are certainly up at the top of the league, but his efficiency is consistently behind a lot of the top scorers...
- In the 2021-22 season, there were 11 players who had more post up possessions per game than Sabonis. Sabonis' efficiency was 12th (dead last).
- In the 2020-21 season, there were 8 players who had more post up possessions per game than Sabonis. Sabonis' efficiency was 8th (Drummond was worse)
- In the 2019-20 season, there were 16 players who had more post up possession per game than Sabonis. Sabonis' efficiency was 13th (A. Davis, C. Anthony, Vucevic, & Ayton were worse)
The interesting things is when you look at Sabonis' percentiles across the various different playtypes, he's not really great t any one thing and is just solid across many (2021-22 playtype percentiles below):
- Isolation = 9.2%
- Transition = 80.0%
- PnR Ball Handler = N/A
- PnR Roll Man = 70.5%
- Spot Up = 10.3%
- Handoff = N/A
- Cut = 53.1%
- Off Screen = N/A
- Putbacks = 62.6%
- Misc. = 50.1%
Everything thing I've seen forces me to arrive at the same conclusion. He's an efficient scorer that is smart, picks his spots, plays within the flow of the offense, and is a jack of all trades but master of none when it comes to scoring. But no he's not an "elite" scorer who has the ability & potential to give you an efficient 27+ PPG. Those types of scorers typically need to be great 1:1, iso scorers, and as stated above, that's not Sabonis' strength. Just look at the top 10 scorers from last year:
- Embiid
- LeBron
- Giannis
- Durant
- Doncic
- Young
- DeRozan
- Irving
- Morant
- Jokic