What should a good NBA GM know - and when should he/she know it ? (A LONG read - be warned)

[ShastaKingsFan]

Yet, here he is. Still playing. Starting games. Contributing. Reminder that he still made that 1st team all rookie.

I have no idea who these draft experts are that said he would not be able to play in the NBA after dominating college. Or what NBA scout was on record saying Marvin was no good.

Would also be careful to crown any member of that draft class just yet.

Nobody said "he would not be able to play in the NBA". What there was, was a lot of doubt that he would be a franchise player or an All-Star, or was the best player available at #2 in that draft.

Some guys are good in college, but just don't translate to the NBA. Stromile Swift was a high draft pick as well, even though many had doubts about his game working well in the NBA.... among dozens of others

 

[Livinthedream]

Nobody said "he would not be able to play in the NBA". What there was, was a lot of doubt that he would be a franchise player or an All-Star, or be the right pick at #2 in that draft.

Some guys are good in college, but just don't translate to the NBA. Stromile Swift was a high draft pick as well, even though many had doubts about his game working well in the NBA.... among dozens of others

He's not Stromile Swift.

Your argument was that he has no NBA transferable skills and I disagreed. Franchise player is a very different argument.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

He's not Stromile Swift.

Your argument was that he has no NBA transferable skills and I disagreed. Franchise player is a very different argument.

Is "the right pick at #2 in that draft".... a different conversation?

 

[Livinthedream]

Is "the right pick at #2 in that draft".... a different conversation?

Yes, it's a different conversation. You asked me what was on his resume that would make him a high lottery pick.

Hindsight says that it looks that there may have been a better choice at 2. To keep this on topic, most on this forum would say Vlade should have drafted Luka because everyone knew Luka would be "generational." Then we have to ask why Phoenix and Atlanta passed on Luka too, if it was so obvious. I just don’t think everything was so obvious leading up to the draft.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

How many Duke players have panned out? I have such a low impression of them, the ones that are OK usually wind up getting injured irreparably.

Total bias and hatred of Duke is why I was not high on the pick and didn't want him.

 

[Livinthedream]

How many Duke players have panned out? I have such a low impression of them, the ones that are OK usually wind up getting injured irreparably.

Total bias and hatred of Duke is why I was not high on the pick and didn't want him.

I agree Duke players don't pan out, outside of Grant Hill. He was good even after the injury slowed him.

 

[steelevt]

How many Duke players have panned out? I have such a low impression of them, the ones that are OK usually wind up getting injured irreparably.

Total bias and hatred of Duke is why I was not high on the pick and didn't want him.

Recently…kyrie, Brandon Ingram and Tatum assuming panning out means allstar quality players. Then there’s players like Seth curry, Luke kennard, plumlee, Gary Trent jr, and then Barrett and Zion but they might be too soon to tell.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Recently…kyrie, Brandon Ingram and Tatum assuming panning out means allstar quality players. Then there’s players like Seth curry, Luke kennard, plumper, Gary Trent jr, and then Barrett and Zion but they might be too soon to tell.

Thanks for a bit of a reality check - although it sure feels like they have had a million high profile busts in the top 4-5 picks of the draft to go along with those guys.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

Yes, it's a different conversation. You asked me what was on his resume that would make him a high lottery pick.

Hindsight says that it looks that there may have been a better choice at 2. To keep this on topic, most on this forum would say Vlade should have drafted Luka because everyone knew Luka would be "generational." Then we have to ask why Phoenix and Atlanta passed on Luka too, if it was so obvious. I just don’t think everything was so obvious leading up to the draft.

It wasn't / isn't hindsight. Most everyone knew there was a better choice going into that draft. If you didn't think so, then you're among the minority who wanted Bagley with that pick.

 

[sactowndog]

Yes, it's a different conversation. You asked me what was on his resume that would make him a high lottery pick.

Hindsight says that it looks that there may have been a better choice at 2. To keep this on topic, most on this forum would say Vlade should have drafted Luka because everyone knew Luka would be "generational." Then we have to ask why Phoenix and Atlanta passed on Luka too, if it was so obvious. I just don’t think everything was so obvious leading up to the draft.

There are some who even now quietly question Luka. Really ball dominate, plays no defense, sucks up all the counting stats. We shall see how things pan out in a few years but there are some real concerns.

It wasn’t completely an open and shut decision for Vlade and that’s ignoring what we don’t know in terms of would Luka even play here and not stay in Madrid.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

There are some who even now quietly question Luka. Really ball dominate, plays no defense, sucks up all the counting stats. We shall see how things pan out in a few years but there are some real concerns.

It wasn’t completely an open and shut decision for Vlade and that’s ignoring what we don’t know in terms of would Luka even play here and not stay in Madrid.

I don't think his on court is an issue it's that he's already killed a coach and GM in Dallas and it's hard to imagine it going better in Sacramento who had worse in every aspect.

Interestingly though, supposedly the reason he soured on the Dallas staff was because he was BFFs with DSJ despite all the concern that they couldn't play together (let's have that sink in).

 

[Warhawk]

It wasn't / isn't hindsight. Most everyone knew there was a better choice going into that draft. If you didn't think so, then you're among the minority who wanted Bagley with that pick.

As someone who wanted us to draft Luka, there is a big difference between thinking Luka would be a "generational" talent (and that still remains to be seen) and ... wanting Bagley. Both can be not true.

 

[Livinthedream]

Recently…kyrie, Brandon Ingram and Tatum assuming panning out means allstar quality players. Then there’s players like Seth curry, Luke kennard, plumper, Gary Trent jr, and then Barrett and Zion but they might be too soon to tell.

Oh wow. You're right. My mind didn't even register today's players for some reason.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

As someone who wanted us to draft Luka, there is a big difference between thinking Luka would be a "generational" talent (and that still remains to be seen) and ... wanting Bagley. Both can be not true.

There is a difference between that. Tell us what your thoughts were going into that draft.

My thoughts were that Doncic had a skill set that would translate well to the NBA game and Bagley did not. The best player available was clear and obvious from that standpoint.

 

[Warhawk]

There is a difference between that. Tell us what your thoughts were going into that draft.

My thoughts were that Doncic had a skill set that would translate well to the NBA game and Bagley did not. The best player available was clear and obvious from that standpoint.

I'm not the person to ask - I don't watch college/international ball at all. Just going off the few video clips and "scouting reports" here at KF I'd seen I preferred/wanted Luka. But that doesn't mean that Bagley also wasn't highly rated in the draft or might develop into a good player. (It looks like he might be finally turning the corner a bit on that end this season.) I honestly had no clue how any of them would fare in the NBA. I leave that to the draft experts.

But with other teams passing on Luka as well, nobody thought at the time that he was going to be the next LeBron or anything. A good to possibly great player? Maybe/probably. He's obviously a great player now. But generational? That remains to be seen. But definitely a great player.

Again, Luka was my first choice, but I don't get to choose, do I? And with my lack of interest in college ball or scouting acumen, you wouldn't want me choosing anyways. I'd just come here to see what the few folks that do a lot of scouting think and follow their advice anyways.

 

[Groovygreg]

Thanks for a bit of a reality check - although it sure feels like they have had a million high profile busts in the top 4-5 picks of the draft to go along with those guys.

Like Bagley.

 

[KainLear]

How many Duke players have panned out? I have such a low impression of them, the ones that are OK usually wind up getting injured irreparably.

Total bias and hatred of Duke is why I was not high on the pick and didn't want him.

With every Kyrie Irving and BI, there are at least a few Trevon Duval, Harry Giles (although his case is a bit unique), Vernon Carey Jr, Jalen Johnsons...

 

[The_Jamal]

There are some who even now quietly question Luka. Really ball dominate, plays no defense, sucks up all the counting stats. We shall see how things pan out in a few years but there are some real concerns.

It wasn’t completely an open and shut decision for Vlade and that’s ignoring what we don’t know in terms of would Luka even play here and not stay in Madrid.

Concerns about what? Once again, why are we trying to debate a 22 year old top 10 player?

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

Concerns about what? Once again, why are we trying to debate a 22 year old top 10 player?

Seriously. The dude has made the All NBA First team, twice already

 

[Capt. Factorial]

With every Kyrie Irving and BI, there are at least a few Trevon Duval, Harry Giles (although his case is a bit unique), Vernon Carey Jr, Jalen Johnsons...

We're writing off Jalen Johnson already? Also, I'm pretty sure that the undrafted Trevon Duval (who I had to look up despite being only a few years ago) was not a draft prospect, just a dude who had a big ego and left college early.

But overall, I think the idea that you can look at a certain school and have some sort of confidence that their draft prospects are bad/overrated is just overthinking it. I did a look back over the last 30 years for schools that had put 40-60 players into the draft in that time frame, to see how many of the players from that school ended up being (subjectively) "useful" players. The only schools that have had that many draftees in that time (unless I missed one) were Duke, UNC, UCLA, Kansas, and Kentucky. All five of those schools were at about a 1-in-3 hit rate, none stood out as being significantly different from 1-in-3. Then I looked at some schools with fewer players - Michigan, Michigan State, UConn, Villanova, Texas, and the hit rate on those schools was basically 1-in-3 or worse. And looking at several drafts in the early 2000s, 1-in-3 is quite a bit better than the draft average. So basically, it looks like players from big schools that get drafted hit at about the same rate regardless of which school they were at, and they hit at a higher rate than players from smaller schools. Is there the ESPN/DickieV hype on Duke players? Sure, to some extent, but I suspect that NBA teams typically are able to get around that when making selections.

 

[Livinthedream]

Concerns about what? Once again, why are we trying to debate a 22 year old top 10 player?

That's debatable.

 

[The_Jamal]

That's debatable.

Really isn't. 2 1st team All-NBA awards and virtually every statistic known to man will point that direct too.

 

[sactowndog]

Concerns about what? Once again, why are we trying to debate a 22 year old top 10 player?

Because if you take both sides of the ball into account:

1) I don’t think he is a top 10 player today

2) I’m not sure he is the kind of player other players want to join. KP has played better without him and despite Dallas having money we have yet to see any good free agents sign with Dallas. Seth Curry was probably the best player they signed.

Not sure many players want to play with a teammate who
1) on offense dominates the ball 10% more than other superstars
2) on defense does little but hang out in the paint to grab rebounds and look for steals while they do all the dirty work.

This point isn’t a Bagley/Luka comparison as it’s no contest but Luka does have his red flags.

 

[Noble]

If we absolutely wanted a big that year, very surprised that we didn't go JJJ at the pick.