What draft pick # will the Kings get this off season? just a poll

[mdme]

Please move me to personel thread if this should belong there.

 

[VF21]

I moved it per your request....

Your options aren't complete, BTW. You really need to have one for the "Who can possibly predict since it's a lottery?"

 

[TTown Kings]

http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29699

 

[SacKings7]

This is exactly the kind of thing that can jinx a high pick, so I'm not voting in this one..

 

[Gary]

I would have to say in the 3-6 range.. Probably closer to 3-4. I think there will be a couple teams that will finish with a worse record than the Kings and the ping pong balls will probably reflect that. Memphis, OKC, LA Clippers, and Washington will be battling us for the worst record probably.

 

[ParniValjak]

I also think 3-6. I think we will be projected in the top 2 picks but the ping pong balls will not bounce our way. People forget we are the Sacramento Kings, if there is a chance of something going wrong, it WILL go wrong. I expect the worst case scanario.

 

[HighTopKicks]

Washington had another player injured. I see them as having the worst record. And, when the Kings trade Miller & Salmons for cap space the winning will end, so look for them to end up just ahead of Washington.

Even tho there is a lottery, the percentages are still in favor of the worst team getting the 1st pick, and so on. So, I picked the Kings for #2.

 

[ParniValjak]

Does anyone have the percentages of say the last 15 years where the team with the worst record actually won the lottery?

 

[mtb4life]

Honestly, I reckon we'll get #1. Washington are playing way better than us and we'll probably never get back above OKC or LAC.

 

[Warhawk]

Honestly, I reckon we'll get #1. Washington are playing way better than us and we'll probably never get back above OKC or LAC.

You do realize that there is a lottery system involved and the team with the worst record does not necessarily get the first pick, don't you?

 

[Section 101]

Does anyone have the percentages of say the last 15 years where the team with the worst record actually won the lottery?

Since 1990 only 3 times has the worst record won.

http://www.nba.com/history/lottery_probabilities.html

 

[fnordius]

Since 1990 only 3 times has the worst record won.

http://www.nba.com/history/lottery_probabilities.html

1990-93 are not really relevant, though. They had the odds very screwed up, to the point that, in '93, Orlando, the strongest non-playoff team, with the 11th-worst record, got the #1 pick. They adopted the modern sort of lottery in '94 as a result of that. The exact odds have been adjusted somewhat at least a couple of times since then.

And, as of right now, the chances of the team with the worst record picking first are 25%, which is all that matters. That might not sound so good if your team has the worst record in the NBA, but, objectively speaking, it's not bad. Maybe not good enough to deliberately tank for, but I guess that depends on how well the guy who's going to be picked at #1 has been playing.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

I don't care, I put the 1st pick. I'm just trying to get some good collective Mojo going for us.

 

[Section 101]

1990-93 are not really relevant, though. They had the odds very screwed up, to the point that, in '93, Orlando, the strongest non-playoff team, with the 11th-worst record, got the #1 pick. They adopted the modern sort of lottery in '94 as a result of that. The exact odds have been adjusted somewhat at least a couple of times since then.

And, as of right now, the chances of the team with the worst record picking first are 25%, which is all that matters. That might not sound so good if your team has the worst record in the NBA, but, objectively speaking, it's not bad. Maybe not good enough to deliberately tank for, but I guess that depends on how well the guy who's going to be picked at #1 has been playing.

Ok, then since 94 only 2 times has the worst record won.

Look at the position that won, starting in 94.

4
5
2
3
3
3
7
3
5
1
1
6
5
7
9

So out of 15 lottos the top 2 teams got it 3 times or 20% of the time.

teams 3-4 got it 5 times or 33% of the time.

teams 5-6 got it 4 times or 27%.

7-8 - 2 times, 13%.

So really it has been better to be in 3-6 range than 1-2.

And this isn't factoring in getting the 2 or 3 pick. Where you can move down even more from #1 or 2.

 

[PurpleHaze]

Seems I recall back in late 80's when Kings got #1 overall pick they had 4th or 5th worst record. I might be a bit off and maybe NBA draft lottery was conducted under different rules than now - number of ping pong balls, etc. Bottom line is, it was an extremely weak draft that year - thus unlucky have #1 pick landing Pervis the never nervous. This year looks similar - weak - maybe just plain awful to have #1 selection for 2009.

 

[fnordius]

So out of 15 lottos the top 2 teams got it 3 times or 20% of the time.

Since '94, odds have varied, and other factors have forbidden the #1 team from getting the #1 pick. In '97 and '98, for example, the team with the worst record was Vancouver, but they were forbidden from getting the #1 pick by their expansion agreement... this has been done to other expansion teams as well. The odds of getting the #1 pick are:

1. 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Worrying about past picks, particularly when the odds were heavily modified by factors you probably don't know about (like the prohibition on expansion teams), gets you nowhere, unless you think the lottery is rigged. Otherwise, 25% is 25%.

 

[HighTopKicks]

Since '94, odds have varied, and other factors have forbidden the #1 team from getting the #1 pick. In '97 and '98, for example, the team with the worst record was Vancouver, but they were forbidden from getting the #1 pick by their expansion agreement... this has been done to other expansion teams as well. The odds of getting the #1 pick are:

1. 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Worrying about past picks, particularly when the odds were heavily modified by factors you probably don't know about (like the prohibition on expansion teams), gets you nowhere, unless you think the lottery is rigged. Otherwise, 25% is 25%.

What's even more important to remember than the fact that the top 2 have an almost 45% chance of winning, is that the worst they can end up is in the top 5.

 

[Section 101]

Since '94, odds have varied, and other factors have forbidden the #1 team from getting the #1 pick. In '97 and '98, for example, the team with the worst record was Vancouver, but they were forbidden from getting the #1 pick by their expansion agreement... this has been done to other expansion teams as well. The odds of getting the #1 pick are:

1. 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Worrying about past picks, particularly when the odds were heavily modified by factors you probably don't know about (like the prohibition on expansion teams), gets you nowhere, unless you think the lottery is rigged. Otherwise, 25% is 25%.

Yes and you get into all the probabilty stuff. Like if you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up tails each time the probabilty it comes up tails again is still 50/50. But at the #1 spot you still have a 75% chance you dont get the pick. So the probabilty is still against you.

 

[Warhawk]

Yes and you get into all the probabilty stuff. Like if you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up tails each time the probabilty it comes up tails again is still 50/50. But at the #1 spot you still have a 75% chance you dont get the pick. So the probabilty is still against you.

But, the probablility of getting #1 is even less at number 2, 3, etc.! I think you are ignoring that part of it....

 

[Jerryaki]

Like if you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up tails each time the probabilty it comes up tails again is still 50/50.

[geek] but at the outset, if you said you were going to flip a fair coin 11 times, the chance of it being all tails by the time it gets to that 11th flip is not 50/50. [/geek]

this isn't hard, #1 draft pick is still better than any other, right?