...Houston beats Denver tonight, and the Kings win at least one of their remaining three matches.
At this point, with a playoffs spot clinched, most of us would like to avoid the 7th spot and the matchup with San Antonio that comes alongside with it (it's highly unlikely that #7 will play Phoenix, because that would require San Antonio to go 3-0 and Phoenix 0-3 for the upcoming games).
I'll explain why the above conditions are enough. Suppose after the criteria are met, the worst case outcomes would be:
- SAC going 1-2, ending with 50-32
- HOU going 3-0, ending with 51-31
- DEN going 2-1, ending with 50-32
As you see, SAC and DEN would be in a tie, record-wise. For clarification, let's rephrase the tiebreakers criteria.
1. TWO-WAY TIES
a. Results of games against each other.
Since SAC won the season series with DEN 2-1, SAC will clinch the tie, and acquire 6th seed. All of the following tiebreaker criteria will not be important anymore!
b. Better winning percentage within own conference.
c. Better winning percentage within own division (only if tied teams are in same division).
d. Better winning percentage against playoff opponents in own conference.
e. Better winning percentage against playoff opponents in opposite conference.
f. Better point differential between offense and defense.
Oh, but what if, say, Houston went 2-1, and they ended with a 50-32 record as well? Then we would have a three-way tie. Other possible three-way is SAC going 0-3, HOU 1-2, DEN 1-2, so that all three teams end at 49-33.
What happens then? Again, let's take a look at the tiebreaker criteria:
2. MORE THAN TWO TEAMS TIED
a. If applicable, division champions must be determined first.
Not applicable here.
b. Best cumulative winning percentage in total games involving all teams tied.
The important matches are:
SAC-DEN 2-1
SAC-HOU 2-2
HOU-DEN 1-1 (The series clincher is tonight)
If Houston wins, the records involving all teams would be:
1. HOU 4-3 (see *)
2. SAC 4-3
3. DEN 2-4
If Denver wins, and all three teams end into a tie, then no worries either:
1. SAC 4-3
2. DEN 3-3
3. HOU 3-4
As you can see, in case a three-way tie occurs, SAC will never get 7th seed, no matter what.
c. Best winning percentage within own conference.
(*) Houston has a better conference record, for them to lose this advantage, they would have to go 0-3 and SAC to go 3-0. Then a tie would never happen. So, in case of a tie between HOU and SAC, HOU will clinch the tie.
d. Best winning percentage within own division (only if tied teams are in same division).
e. Best winning percentage against playoff opponents in own conference.
f. Best point differential between offense and defense.
In case Denver does win tonight, and the three teams do not tie, well, it just boils down to the remaining results. I'll take a new look after tonight's match(es). But since Houston has a better conference record, the Kings will want to avoid a tie at 6th place.
In conclusion; root for Houston tonight! And for the Kings of course
At this point, with a playoffs spot clinched, most of us would like to avoid the 7th spot and the matchup with San Antonio that comes alongside with it (it's highly unlikely that #7 will play Phoenix, because that would require San Antonio to go 3-0 and Phoenix 0-3 for the upcoming games).
I'll explain why the above conditions are enough. Suppose after the criteria are met, the worst case outcomes would be:
- SAC going 1-2, ending with 50-32
- HOU going 3-0, ending with 51-31
- DEN going 2-1, ending with 50-32
As you see, SAC and DEN would be in a tie, record-wise. For clarification, let's rephrase the tiebreakers criteria.
1. TWO-WAY TIES
a. Results of games against each other.
Since SAC won the season series with DEN 2-1, SAC will clinch the tie, and acquire 6th seed. All of the following tiebreaker criteria will not be important anymore!
b. Better winning percentage within own conference.
c. Better winning percentage within own division (only if tied teams are in same division).
d. Better winning percentage against playoff opponents in own conference.
e. Better winning percentage against playoff opponents in opposite conference.
f. Better point differential between offense and defense.
Oh, but what if, say, Houston went 2-1, and they ended with a 50-32 record as well? Then we would have a three-way tie. Other possible three-way is SAC going 0-3, HOU 1-2, DEN 1-2, so that all three teams end at 49-33.
What happens then? Again, let's take a look at the tiebreaker criteria:
2. MORE THAN TWO TEAMS TIED
a. If applicable, division champions must be determined first.
Not applicable here.
b. Best cumulative winning percentage in total games involving all teams tied.
The important matches are:
SAC-DEN 2-1
SAC-HOU 2-2
HOU-DEN 1-1 (The series clincher is tonight)
If Houston wins, the records involving all teams would be:
1. HOU 4-3 (see *)
2. SAC 4-3
3. DEN 2-4
If Denver wins, and all three teams end into a tie, then no worries either:
1. SAC 4-3
2. DEN 3-3
3. HOU 3-4
As you can see, in case a three-way tie occurs, SAC will never get 7th seed, no matter what.
c. Best winning percentage within own conference.
(*) Houston has a better conference record, for them to lose this advantage, they would have to go 0-3 and SAC to go 3-0. Then a tie would never happen. So, in case of a tie between HOU and SAC, HOU will clinch the tie.
d. Best winning percentage within own division (only if tied teams are in same division).
e. Best winning percentage against playoff opponents in own conference.
f. Best point differential between offense and defense.
In case Denver does win tonight, and the three teams do not tie, well, it just boils down to the remaining results. I'll take a new look after tonight's match(es). But since Houston has a better conference record, the Kings will want to avoid a tie at 6th place.
In conclusion; root for Houston tonight! And for the Kings of course
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